Electricity demand forecasting and the problem of embedded generation

Save this PDF as:
 WORD  PNG  TXT  JPG

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "Electricity demand forecasting and the problem of embedded generation"

Transcription

1 Electricity demand forecasting and the problem of embedded generation Place your chosen image here. The four corners must just cover the arrow tips. For covers, the three pictures should be the same size and in a straight line. John Young 6 th March 2013

2 Operating the system Electricity National Control Centre 2

3 Operating the system Generation Demand Frequency Hz Normal operating frequency Upper statutory limit Generators tripping Lower statutory limit Demand disconnection starts Demand disconnection 49.1 complete

4 Demand profile shapes Shape of demand curves in terms of turning points and points of inflections - remains fairly constant from day to day Exact position of turning points, both in vertical (Demand) and horizontal (Time) directions varies, at least partially because of weather and non-weather variables Shape evolves slowly over time, with some abrupt discontinuities 4

5 GB National Demand A Typical Daily Profile: January Winter Peak ~ 56,000 MW Winter Minimum ~ 32,000 MW 5

6 GB National Demand A Typical Daily Profile: January Winter Peak ~ 56,000 MW Winter Minimum ~ 32,000 MW 6

7 GB National Demand A Typical Daily Profile: February Winter Peak ~ 56,000 MW 7

8 GB National Demand A Typical Daily Profile: March Winter Peak ~ 56,000 MW 8

9 GB National Demand A Typical Daily Profile: April Winter Peak ~ 56,000 MW 9

10 GB National Demand A Typical Daily Profile: May Winter Peak ~ 56,000 MW 10

11 GB National Demand A Typical Daily Profile: June Winter Peak ~ 56,000 MW 11

12 GB National Demand A Typical Daily Profile: June Winter Peak ~ 56,000 MW Summer Maximum ~ 40,000 MW Summer Minimum ~ 20,000 MW 12

13 Forecasting electricity demand Typical demand profile shape 2 distinct shapes: GMT and BST 13

14 What Else Affects Demand? Time of Day Bank Holidays School Holidays Day of Week 14

15 Day of week impact Demand curve for weekday in GMT Friday Demand curve for Saturday in GMT Demand curve for Sunday in GMT Monday 15

16 What Else Affects Demand? Time of Day Day of Week Bank Holidays School Holidays Weather Special Events TV 16

17 Demand Effect (MW) Temperature COLD High Demand HOT Quite High Demand MILD Low Demand Temperature 17

18 Demand Effect (MW) Illumination DULL High Demand BRIGHT Low Demand Radiation 18

19 Demand (MW) The Impact of Weather Cooling Power of the Wind Low Wind: Low Demand Strong Wind: High Demand Wind Speed 19

20 The Impact of Weather Rain 20

21 The Impact of Weather Some Numbers Temperature (1 C fall in cold conditions) MW Cloud cover (clear sky to thick cloud) + 1,500 MW Precipitation (no rain to heavy rain) + 1,000 MW Temperature (1 C rise in hot conditions) MW Cooling power (10 mph rise in cold conditions) + 1,000 MW 21

22 Weather Variables 4-Hourly Average Temperature [TO] Effective temperature [TE] Wind Speed [WS] Cooling Power of the Wind [CP] a function of Wind Speed and Temperature (TO) Effective illumination of the Sky [EI] - A derived quantity calculated from radiation levels and measurements of cloud type and cover 22

23 Non-weather variables Day of week Year Effect indicator variable for different years: mostly owing to different economic conditions Time of year seasonality Time of Sunrise and Sunset School Holidays - % of schools on holiday Annual Holidays indicator variable from common August holiday weeks Bank Holidays excluded from data set for purposes of modelling, then deal with on an ad hoc basis 23

24 GB National Demand Cardinal Points DP 2B 1B 24

25 Standard Linear Regression Conventional Models Model Inputs: Weather Component Day of Week Component Basic Demand Historic Demands Historic Weather Heathrow, Glasgow, Manchester, Bristol, Leeds, Bimingham Additional Effects School Holidays, Day of Week, Time of Year 25

26 Modelling Construct different models for each of the Cardinal Points (CPs) Construct different models for GMT and BST Construct models of two different types for each CP: Standard linear regression models (Conventional Models) Time series models with linear regression (Trend models) Depending on the CP we construct 7 day models, 5 day models, Saturday models and Sunday models On any day of the week there are at least two (and up to four) models that we forecast with 26

27 2B Demand (12:30) 27

28 2B Model On Day Of Week Effect Actual Demand Vs Fitted Values 28

29 Including A Seasonal Effect Actual Demand Vs Fitted Values 29

30 Including A Weather Effect Actual Demand Vs Fitted Values 30

31 Including A School Holiday Effect Actual Demand Vs Fitted Values 31

32 Time Series with Linear Regression Trend Models Yesterday Today 1F 1A 04 1B 1F 1A 04 1B 2A 2B 3B 3C/DP 4B 32

33 Including A School Holiday Effect Actual Demand Vs Fitted Values 33

34 Including A Trend Component Actual Demand Vs Fitted Values 34

35 The Model Symbolically L2B ~ L04 DWK SCH EI CP Day of Week Effect Weather Effect Trend term Error term 35

36 Modelling CP Demand Construct forecast models using variables that make sense Use best model possible with variables that reduce the residual error significantly Weather Component Day of Week Component Track Basic Demand, non-model component of demand Basic Demand 36

37 Basic Demand Manually track and forecast basic element of demand 37

38 Profile Matching Check how well CP forecasts match historic days 48 Daily Demand Profile Actual_ Forecast_ Eview s

39 Choosing Basics Forecast basic demand 2B model: Jan-Feb 2013 Aim is to reduce risk of error 39

40 Embedded PV Generation 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,

41 Embedded PV Generation Daily Demand Profile Actual_ Forecast_ Eview s

42 Embedded Generation Invisible, non-metered Connected directly into distribution networks Effectively reduces demand on the system Not just PV 42

43 The Impact of Embedded Generation Embedded Generation National Demand True GB Demand is higher than National Grid observe Not a new phenomenon, but an increase in more variable technologies means it is a more significant effect Wind Power ~ 2,000 MW Solar Power ~ 1,500 MW 43

44 Virtual Demand: A True National Demand Embedded Generation National Demand Virtual Demand 44

45 Model Using Virtual Demand Weather Component Week Day Component Virtual Demand Basic Demand 45

46 Forecast Virtual Demand; Adjust for Embedded Generation Weather Component Week Day Component National Demand Basic Demand Embedded Generation 46

47 The Forecasting Process Model using Virtual Demand Forecast Virtual Demand; Adjust for Embedded Generation Embedded Generation Weather Component Weather Component National Demand Week Day Component Week Day Component National Demand Basic Demand Basic Demand Embedded Generation 47

48 Forecasting Embedded Wind Generation Existing Forecasting Methods Wind Power Forecasting System - Metered Wind ~ 5,800 MW - Embedded ~ 2,000 MW Metered Wind Farms Embedded Wind Farms Metered Wind Power Forecast National Demand Forecast 48

49 Load Factor Standard Wind Power Curve Wind Farm Decile wind speed forecast applied to a load curve Load curves for each wind generator, optimised using actual metering Forecast Wind Speed / mph 49

50 03-DEC :00 8:00 12:00 17:00 21:00 04-DEC :00 8:00 12:00 17:00 21:00 05-DEC :00 8:00 12:00 17:00 21:00 06-DEC :00 8:00 12:00 17:00 21:00 07-DEC :00 8:00 12:00 17:00 21:00 Wind Power forecast probabilistic view for next 5 days from Mon 3 rd Dec ,000 Wind Power Forecast - Probabilistic View for Next 5 Days 20% confidence 40% confidence 60% confidence 80% confidence Mean Forecast Excluding Cut-out Mean Forecast 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Wind cut out forecast 5,000 Wind Cut-out Forecast 20% confidence 40% confidence 60% confidence 80% confidence Mean Cut-out 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,

51 Metered wind generation forecast Use same process to forecast embedded wind Have information on location and capacity for all embedded wind generators above 2MW 51

52 Forecasting Embedded Generation Simulated National PV Output 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,

53 Load Factor Forecasting Embedded Generation Forecasting PV 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% Mark Holland - Load Factor Vs Heathrow Radiation National average radiation forecast Generic power curve National capacity % 0% ,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3, % 80% 70% David Lenaghan - Load Factor Vs Odiham Radiation % % 40% % % 10% % ,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3, ,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 National Average RA 53

54 The challenges of PV Embedded Wind Individual locations and capacities Wind speed forecasts for various locations Experience forecasting metered wind Embedded PV Overall capacity for whole country National Average radiation No operational experience yet 54

55 Density 0e+00 2e-04 4e-04 6e-04 Density 0e+00 2e-04 4e-04 6e-04 X3B_Basic X3C_Basic Forecasting Embedded Generation Forecasting PV Index Index density.default(x = X3B_Basic + Output_1500, bw = 300) density.default(x = X3C_Basic + Output_1700, bw = 300) N = 57 Bandwidth = N = 57 Bandwidth =

56 The Problem with Embedded Generation ~ 3,500 MW installed capacity Variable output dependant on weather effects Changing capacity levels Reliant on estimates of output No means of directly testing forecast models Increases the volatility of National Demand 56

57 Including A Trend Component Actual Demand Vs Fitted Values 57

58 Including Embedded Wind Generation Actual Demand Vs Fitted Values 58

59 Including Embedded Solar Generation Actual Demand Vs Fitted Values 59

60 60

61 Thanks for listening 61

62 Demand and Wind Forecasting 62

*This view is a sample image of electricity consumption.

*This view is a sample image of electricity consumption. Supply-demand balance of electricity is indicated based on the comparison between actual demand updated every five minutes and the maximum supply capacity. Demand forecast* is provided at around 8am, indicating

More information

Academic Calendar for Faculty

Academic Calendar for Faculty Summer 2013 Term June 3, 2013 (Monday) June 3-4, 2013 (Monday Tuesday) June 5, 2013 (Wednesday) June 5-6, 2013 (Wednesday Thursday) June 6, 2013 (Thursday) July 3, 2013 (Wednesday) July 4, 2013 (Thursday)

More information

Electricity and Natural Gas Consumption Trends in the Australian Capital Territory 2009-2013. Environment and Planning Directorate

Electricity and Natural Gas Consumption Trends in the Australian Capital Territory 2009-2013. Environment and Planning Directorate Electricity and Natural Gas Consumption Trends in the Australian Capital Territory 2009-2013 Environment and Planning Directorate January 2015 Contents Executive Summary... 3 Introduction... 4 Energy costs

More information

LOAD PROFILES AND THEIR USE IN ELECTRICITY SETTLEMENT

LOAD PROFILES AND THEIR USE IN ELECTRICITY SETTLEMENT LOAD PROFILES AND THEIR USE IN ELECTRICITY SETTLEMENT Introduction This document provides a broad overview of Load Profiling. It explains what a Load Profile is, how Load Profiles are created by the Profile

More information

Energy Storage for Renewable Integration

Energy Storage for Renewable Integration ESMAP-SAR-EAP Renewable Energy Training Program 2014 Energy Storage for Renewable Integration 24 th Apr 2014 Jerry Randall DNV GL Renewables Advisory, Bangkok 1 DNV GL 2013 SAFER, SMARTER, GREENER DNV

More information

Comprehensive Forecasting System for Variable Renewable Energy

Comprehensive Forecasting System for Variable Renewable Energy Branko Kosović Sue Ellen Haupt, Gerry Wiener, Luca Delle Monache, Yubao Liu, Marcia Politovich, Jenny Sun, John Williams*, Daniel Adriaansen, Stefano Alessandrini, Susan Dettling, and Seth Linden (NCAR,

More information

Load Profiles and their use in Electricity Settlement

Load Profiles and their use in Electricity Settlement Guidance Load Profiles and their use in Electricity Settlement Introduction This document provides a broad overview of Load Profiling. It explains what a Load Profile is, how Load Profiles are created

More information

CHAPTER 2 LOAD FORECAST

CHAPTER 2 LOAD FORECAST CHAPTER 2 LOAD 2.1 METHODS The Company uses two econometric models with an end-use orientation to forecast energy sales. The first is a customer class level model ( sales model ) and the second is an hourly

More information

Chapter 9: Air Masses and Fronts. Air Masses. Source Regions. Air masses Contain uniform temperature and humidity characteristics.

Chapter 9: Air Masses and Fronts. Air Masses. Source Regions. Air masses Contain uniform temperature and humidity characteristics. Chapter 9: Air Masses and Fronts Air masses Contain uniform temperature and humidity characteristics. What Characterize Air Masses? What Define Fronts? Fronts Boundaries between unlike air masses. Air

More information

Seasonal & Daily Temperatures. Seasons & Sun's Distance. Solstice & Equinox. Seasons & Solar Intensity

Seasonal & Daily Temperatures. Seasons & Sun's Distance. Solstice & Equinox. Seasons & Solar Intensity Seasonal & Daily Temperatures Seasons & Sun's Distance The role of Earth's tilt, revolution, & rotation in causing spatial, seasonal, & daily temperature variations Please read Chapter 3 in Ahrens Figure

More information

Simulation of parabolic trough concentrating solar power plants in North Africa

Simulation of parabolic trough concentrating solar power plants in North Africa Simulation of parabolic trough concentrating solar power plants in North Africa And its contribution to a 100% renewable energy supply for Germany in 2050 BY: Daniel Horst Outline Simulation program CSP

More information

Solar Power at Vernier Software & Technology

Solar Power at Vernier Software & Technology Solar Power at Vernier Software & Technology Having an eco-friendly business is important to Vernier. Towards that end, we have recently completed a two-phase project to add solar panels to our building

More information

Section 3 What Is Climate?

Section 3 What Is Climate? Section 3 What Is Climate? Key Concept Earth s climate zones are caused by the distribution of heat around Earth s surface by wind and ocean currents. What You Will Learn Climate is the average weather

More information

What the Heck are Low-Cloud Feedbacks? Takanobu Yamaguchi Rachel R. McCrary Anna B. Harper

What the Heck are Low-Cloud Feedbacks? Takanobu Yamaguchi Rachel R. McCrary Anna B. Harper What the Heck are Low-Cloud Feedbacks? Takanobu Yamaguchi Rachel R. McCrary Anna B. Harper IPCC Cloud feedbacks remain the largest source of uncertainty. Roadmap 1. Low cloud primer 2. Radiation and low

More information

Demand Response Market Overview. Glossary of Demand Response Services

Demand Response Market Overview. Glossary of Demand Response Services Demand Response Market Overview Glossary of Demand Response Services Open Energi has partnered with Tarmac to provide Demand Response What s inside... Market Overview Balancing Electricity Supply and Demand

More information

Effects of PV Electricity Generation on Wholesale Power Prices Summary 2012 and January 2013

Effects of PV Electricity Generation on Wholesale Power Prices Summary 2012 and January 2013 Effects of PV Electricity Generation on Wholesale Power Prices Summary 2012 and January 2013 3 Embarcadero Center, Suite 2360 San Francisco, CA 94111 USA tel: 415.692.7730 research@renewableanalytics.com

More information

Field experience and best practices in managing MW scale Li-ion energy storage systems coupled to large wind and solar plants

Field experience and best practices in managing MW scale Li-ion energy storage systems coupled to large wind and solar plants Field experience and best practices in managing MW scale Li-ion energy storage systems coupled to large wind and solar plants Michael Lippert & Jesus Lugaro IRES Düsseldorf 1 March 215 Summary 1. Characterization

More information

2014 ERCOT Planning Long-Term Hourly Peak Demand and Energy Forecast March 31, 2014

2014 ERCOT Planning Long-Term Hourly Peak Demand and Energy Forecast March 31, 2014 2014 ERCOT Planning Long-Term Hourly Peak Demand and Energy Forecast March 31, 2014 2014 Electric Reliability Council of Texas, Inc. All rights reserved. Long-Term Hourly Peak Demand and Energy Forecast

More information

HEATWAVE 13 17 JANUARY 2014. DATE: 26 January 2014

HEATWAVE 13 17 JANUARY 2014. DATE: 26 January 2014 PREPARED BY: Systems Capability DATE: 26 January 2014 Contents 1 INTRODUCTION... 3 2 RESERVE LEVELS DURING THE HEATWAVE... 3 2.1 EVENTS ON THE NEM POWER SYSTEM CONTRIBUTING TO LOW RESERVES... 4 2.2 RISKS

More information

A system of direct radiation forecasting based on numerical weather predictions, satellite image and machine learning.

A system of direct radiation forecasting based on numerical weather predictions, satellite image and machine learning. A system of direct radiation forecasting based on numerical weather predictions, satellite image and machine learning. 31st Annual International Symposium on Forecasting Lourdes Ramírez Santigosa Martín

More information

Heat Transfer. Energy from the Sun. Introduction

Heat Transfer. Energy from the Sun. Introduction Introduction The sun rises in the east and sets in the west, but its exact path changes over the course of the year, which causes the seasons. In order to use the sun s energy in a building, we need to

More information

A Novel Method for Predicting the Power Output of Distributed Renewable Energy Resources

A Novel Method for Predicting the Power Output of Distributed Renewable Energy Resources A Novel Method for Predicting the Power Output of Distributed Renewable Energy Resources Aris-Athanasios Panagopoulos1 Joint work with Georgios Chalkiadakis2 and Eftichios Koutroulis2 ( Predicting the

More information

Solar Tracking Application

Solar Tracking Application Solar Tracking Application A Rockwell Automation White Paper Solar trackers are devices used to orient photovoltaic panels, reflectors, lenses or other optical devices toward the sun. Since the sun s position

More information

After-hours Conditioned Air Policy Revised 8/2/11

After-hours Conditioned Air Policy Revised 8/2/11 After-hours Conditioned Air Policy Revised 8/2/11 INTENT The Duke Energy Center utilizes a heating, ventilating and air conditioning (HVAC) system designed to reduce energy consumption by allowing for

More information

LATITUDES INTERNATIONAL DESIGN CHALLENGE 2015-16

LATITUDES INTERNATIONAL DESIGN CHALLENGE 2015-16 LATITUDES INTERNATIONAL DESIGN CHALLENGE 2015-16 Design Challenge Resilient working environments: carving the city for small businesses in London Submitted by: University of Westminster MSc Architecture

More information

gasnetworks.ie Methodology for forecasting gas demand

gasnetworks.ie Methodology for forecasting gas demand gasnetworks.ie Methodology for forecasting gas demand 1 Contents 1 Introduction 2 1.1 Scope of the report 3 1.2 Use and publication of the forecasts 4 1.3 Structure of the document 5 2 Conceptual background

More information

Solar Input Data for PV Energy Modeling

Solar Input Data for PV Energy Modeling June 2012 Solar Input Data for PV Energy Modeling Marie Schnitzer, Christopher Thuman, Peter Johnson Albany New York, USA Barcelona Spain Bangalore India Company Snapshot Established in 1983; nearly 30

More information

SOLAR TECHNOLOGY CHRIS PRICE TECHNICAL SERVICES OFFICER BIMOSE TRIBAL COUNCIL

SOLAR TECHNOLOGY CHRIS PRICE TECHNICAL SERVICES OFFICER BIMOSE TRIBAL COUNCIL SOLAR TECHNOLOGY CHRIS PRICE TECHNICAL SERVICES OFFICER BIMOSE TRIBAL COUNCIL SOLAR TECHNOLOGY Photovoltaics Funding Options Solar Thermal Photovoltaics 1. What are they and how do they work? 2. The Solar

More information

Temperature and Humidity

Temperature and Humidity Temperature and Humidity Overview Water vapor is a very important gas in the atmosphere and can influence many things like condensation and the formation of clouds and rain, as well as how hot or cold

More information

DETERMINING SOLAR ALTITUDE USING THE GNOMON. How does the altitude change during the day or from day to day?

DETERMINING SOLAR ALTITUDE USING THE GNOMON. How does the altitude change during the day or from day to day? Name Partner(s) Section Date DETERMINING SOLAR ALTITUDE USING THE GNOMON Does the Sun ever occur directly overhead in Maryland? If it does, how would you determine or know it was directly overhead? How

More information

Basics of weather interpretation

Basics of weather interpretation Basics of weather interpretation Safety at Sea Seminar, April 2 nd 2016 Dr. Gina Henderson Oceanography Dept., USNA ghenders@usna.edu Image source: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/naturalhazards/view.php?id=80399,

More information

Stand Alone PV System Sizing Worksheet (example)

Stand Alone PV System Sizing Worksheet (example) Stand Alone PV System Sizing Worksheet (example) Application: Stand alone camp system 7 miles off grid Location: Baton Rouge, La Latitude: 31.53 N A. Loads A1 Inverter efficiency 85 A2 Battery Bus voltage

More information

First Grade Science Vocabulary

First Grade Science Vocabulary data conclusion predict describe observe record identify investigate evidence recycle dispose reuse goggles air cloud precipitation temperature weather wind precipitation property season temperature weather

More information

Financing Community Wind

Financing Community Wind Financing Community Wind Wind Data and Due Diligence What is the Project's Capacity Factor? Community Wind Energy 2006 March 8, 2006 Mark Ahlstrom mark@windlogics.com Slide 1 The Need for Wind Assessment

More information

Solar Aquaponics Designing a 100% Solar Aquaponics Greenhouse

Solar Aquaponics Designing a 100% Solar Aquaponics Greenhouse Solar Aquaponics Designing a 100% Solar Aquaponics Greenhouse Dan Chiras, Ph.D. Director, The Evergreen Institute Gerald, MO 63037 www.evergreeninstitute.org Topics Creating a 100% solar operation Efficiency

More information

Physics and Economy of Energy Storage

Physics and Economy of Energy Storage International Conference Energy Autonomy through Storage of Renewable Energies by EUROSOLAR and WCRE October 30 and 31, 2006 Gelsenkirchen / Germany Physics and Economy of Energy Storage Ulf Bossel European

More information

Name Period 4 th Six Weeks Notes 2015 Weather

Name Period 4 th Six Weeks Notes 2015 Weather Name Period 4 th Six Weeks Notes 2015 Weather Radiation Convection Currents Winds Jet Streams Energy from the Sun reaches Earth as electromagnetic waves This energy fuels all life on Earth including the

More information

SECOND GRADE WEATHER

SECOND GRADE WEATHER SECOND GRADE WEATHER 1 WEEK LESSON PLANS AND ACTIVITIES WATER CYCLE OVERVIEW OF SECOND GRADE WATER WEEK 1. PRE: Exploring the properties of water. LAB: Experimenting with different soap mixtures. POST:

More information

The IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation

The IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation The IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation A changing climate leads to changes in extreme weather and climate events 2 How do changes

More information

MATCHDAY 1 7-9 September 2014

MATCHDAY 1 7-9 September 2014 MATCHDAY 1 7-9 September 2014 7 September Sunday 18:00 Group D 7 September Sunday 20:45 Group D 7 September Sunday 20:45 Group D 7 September Sunday 18:00 Group F 7 September Sunday 20:45 Group F 7 September

More information

Wind Cluster Management for Grid Integration of Large Wind Power

Wind Cluster Management for Grid Integration of Large Wind Power 1 Wind Cluster Management for Grid Integration of Large Wind Power B. Lange, M. Wolff, R. Mackensen, K. Rohrig German-Egyptian Symposium Wind Energy and Integration Overview 2 Challenges for the Integration

More information

Interactive simulation of an ash cloud of the volcano Grímsvötn

Interactive simulation of an ash cloud of the volcano Grímsvötn Interactive simulation of an ash cloud of the volcano Grímsvötn 1 MATHEMATICAL BACKGROUND Simulating flows in the atmosphere, being part of CFD, is on of the research areas considered in the working group

More information

1. The map below shows high-pressure and low-pressure weather systems in the United States.

1. The map below shows high-pressure and low-pressure weather systems in the United States. 1. The map below shows high-pressure and low-pressure weather systems in the United States. 6. Which map correctly shows the wind directions of the highpressure and low-pressure systems? 1) 2) Which two

More information

Adaptive strategies for office spaces in the UK climate

Adaptive strategies for office spaces in the UK climate International Conference Passive and Low Energy Cooling 631 Adaptive strategies for office spaces in the UK climate I. Gallou Environment & Energy Studies Programme, Architectural Association Graduate

More information

VELCO LONG-TERM ENERGY AND DEMAND FORECAST FORECAST DRIVERS AND ASSUMPTIONS. May 22, 2014 Eric Fox and Oleg Moskatov

VELCO LONG-TERM ENERGY AND DEMAND FORECAST FORECAST DRIVERS AND ASSUMPTIONS. May 22, 2014 Eric Fox and Oleg Moskatov VELCO LONG-TERM ENERGY AND DEMAND FORECAST FORECAST DRIVERS AND ASSUMPTIONS May 22, 2014 Eric Fox and Oleg Moskatov AGENDA» Review customer and system usage trends in Vermont» Review and discuss the forecast

More information

Value of storage in providing balancing services for electricity generation systems with high wind penetration

Value of storage in providing balancing services for electricity generation systems with high wind penetration Journal of Power Sources 162 (2006) 949 953 Short communication Value of storage in providing balancing services for electricity generation systems with high wind penetration Mary Black, Goran Strbac 1

More information

Please be sure to save a copy of this activity to your computer!

Please be sure to save a copy of this activity to your computer! Thank you for your purchase Please be sure to save a copy of this activity to your computer! This activity is copyrighted by AIMS Education Foundation. All rights reserved. No part of this work may be

More information

Probabilistic Forecasting of Medium-Term Electricity Demand: A Comparison of Time Series Models

Probabilistic Forecasting of Medium-Term Electricity Demand: A Comparison of Time Series Models Fakultät IV Department Mathematik Probabilistic of Medium-Term Electricity Demand: A Comparison of Time Series Kevin Berk and Alfred Müller SPA 2015, Oxford July 2015 Load forecasting Probabilistic forecasting

More information

Solar Irradiance Forecasting Using Multi-layer Cloud Tracking and Numerical Weather Prediction

Solar Irradiance Forecasting Using Multi-layer Cloud Tracking and Numerical Weather Prediction Solar Irradiance Forecasting Using Multi-layer Cloud Tracking and Numerical Weather Prediction Jin Xu, Shinjae Yoo, Dantong Yu, Dong Huang, John Heiser, Paul Kalb Solar Energy Abundant, clean, and secure

More information

UNITED STATES OF AMERICA BEFORE THE FEDERAL ENERGY REGULATORY COMMISSION. ) ) Reliability Technical Conference ) Docket No.

UNITED STATES OF AMERICA BEFORE THE FEDERAL ENERGY REGULATORY COMMISSION. ) ) Reliability Technical Conference ) Docket No. UNITED STATES OF AMERICA BEFORE THE FEDERAL ENERGY REGULATORY COMMISSION Reliability Technical Conference Docket No. AD14-9-000 REMARKS OF BRAD ALBERT GENERAL MANAGER, RESOURCE MANAGEMENT ARIZONA PUBLIC

More information

Eco Pelmet Modelling and Assessment. CFD Based Study. Report Number 610.14351-R1D1. 13 January 2015

Eco Pelmet Modelling and Assessment. CFD Based Study. Report Number 610.14351-R1D1. 13 January 2015 EcoPelmet Pty Ltd c/- Geoff Hesford Engineering 45 Market Street FREMANTLE WA 6160 Version: Page 2 PREPARED BY: ABN 29 001 584 612 2 Lincoln Street Lane Cove NSW 2066 Australia (PO Box 176 Lane Cove NSW

More information

Using Energy and Meter Reading

Using Energy and Meter Reading Using Energy and Meter Reading Using Energy Lesson Overview Using Energy This lesson helps Girl Scouts understand how we use energy every day in our lives and how to read an electric meter. Someone from

More information

BEST 3, Atlanta, April 2012 Grahame E. Maisey, P.E.

BEST 3, Atlanta, April 2012 Grahame E. Maisey, P.E. A Methodology to Develop a Sustainable, High Performance Building Envelope BEST 3, Atlanta, April 2012 Grahame E. Maisey, P.E. We re Going To Reveal New Sustainable Truths and Expose Old Bogus Truths We

More information

THE COMED RESIDENTIAL REAL-TIME PRICING PROGRAM GUIDE TO REAL-TIME PRICING

THE COMED RESIDENTIAL REAL-TIME PRICING PROGRAM GUIDE TO REAL-TIME PRICING THE COMED RESIDENTIAL REAL-TIME PRICING PROGRAM GUIDE TO REAL-TIME PRICING 2014-2015 COMED RESIDENTIAL REAL-TIME PRICING PROGRAM GUIDE TO REAL-TIME PRICING CONTENTS ComEd Residential Real-Time Pricing

More information

Optimizing Water Supply Operations: Beat the Heat Through Short-Term Demand Forecasting

Optimizing Water Supply Operations: Beat the Heat Through Short-Term Demand Forecasting Optimizing Water Supply Operations: Beat the Heat Through Short-Term Demand Forecasting Nicholas Augustus, P.E.(OR), ENV SP Project Engineer Tualatin Valley Water District Presentation Overview Background

More information

Understanding Your Bill

Understanding Your Bill Pacific Gas and Electric Company'~ ~ UNDERSTANDING YOUR NEM RATE SCHEDULE 1 ~ CREDITS/CHARGES 2 ~ BILL EXAMPLES 3 ~ HELPFUL INFORMATION 5 Understanding Your Bill Thank you for making the choice to promote

More information

Solar Energy Systems. Matt Aldeman Senior Energy Analyst Center for Renewable Energy Illinois State University

Solar Energy Systems. Matt Aldeman Senior Energy Analyst Center for Renewable Energy Illinois State University Solar Energy Solar Energy Systems Matt Aldeman Senior Energy Analyst Center for Renewable Energy Illinois State University 1 SOLAR ENERGY OVERVIEW 1) Types of Solar Power Plants 2) Describing the Solar

More information

EVALUATING SOLAR ENERGY PLANTS TO SUPPORT INVESTMENT DECISIONS

EVALUATING SOLAR ENERGY PLANTS TO SUPPORT INVESTMENT DECISIONS EVALUATING SOLAR ENERGY PLANTS TO SUPPORT INVESTMENT DECISIONS Author Marie Schnitzer Director of Solar Services Published for AWS Truewind October 2009 Republished for AWS Truepower: AWS Truepower, LLC

More information

Use of numerical weather forecast predictions in soil moisture modelling

Use of numerical weather forecast predictions in soil moisture modelling Use of numerical weather forecast predictions in soil moisture modelling Ari Venäläinen Finnish Meteorological Institute Meteorological research ari.venalainen@fmi.fi OBJECTIVE The weather forecast models

More information

The Impact of Wind Power on Day-ahead Electricity Prices in the Netherlands

The Impact of Wind Power on Day-ahead Electricity Prices in the Netherlands The Impact of Wind Power on Day-ahead Electricity Prices in the Netherlands Frans Nieuwenhout #1, Arno Brand #2 # Energy research Centre of the Netherlands Westerduinweg 3, Petten, the Netherlands 1 nieuwenhout@ecn.nl

More information

6 th Grade Science Assessment: Weather & Water Select the best answer on the answer sheet. Please do not make any marks on this test.

6 th Grade Science Assessment: Weather & Water Select the best answer on the answer sheet. Please do not make any marks on this test. Select the be answer on the answer sheet. Please do not make any marks on this te. 1. Weather is be defined as the A. changes that occur in cloud formations from day to day. B. amount of rain or snow that

More information

Power (kw) vs Time (hours)

Power (kw) vs Time (hours) Solar Panels, Energy and Area Under the Curve Victor J. Donnay, Bryn Mawr College Power (kw) vs Time (hours) 3.0 2.5 Power (kw) 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 Time (hours) Figure 1. The power

More information

Reference Guide. Vantage PRO2 Quick

Reference Guide. Vantage PRO2 Quick 3465 Diablo Avenue, Hayward, CA 94545-2778 U.S.A. 510-732-9229 Fax: 510-732-9188 E-mail: info@davisnet.com www.davisnet.com Vantage PRO2 Quick Reference Guide Part Number: 07395.235 Rev C (1/6/2012) 2012

More information

Overview of BNL s Solar Energy Research Plans. March 2011

Overview of BNL s Solar Energy Research Plans. March 2011 Overview of BNL s Solar Energy Research Plans March 2011 Why Solar Energy Research at BNL? BNL s capabilities can advance solar energy In the Northeast World class facilities History of successful research

More information

For the electronic measurement of current: DC, AC, pulsed..., with galvanic separation between the primary and the secondary circuit.

For the electronic measurement of current: DC, AC, pulsed..., with galvanic separation between the primary and the secondary circuit. Current transducer LF 21-S I PN = 2 A For the electronic measurement of current: DC, AC, pulsed..., with galvanic separation between the primary and the secondary circuit. Features Bipolar and insulated

More information

COMPUTHERM Q7 Programmable, digital room thermostat. Operating Instructions

COMPUTHERM Q7 Programmable, digital room thermostat. Operating Instructions COMPUTHERM Q7 Programmable, digital room thermostat Operating Instructions GENERAL DESCRIPTION OF THE THERMOSTAT The COMPUTHERM Q7 type switched-mode room thermostat is suitable to regulate the overwhelming

More information

Elements of the Weather

Elements of the Weather Elements of the Weather The weather is made up of different elements, which are measured either by special instruments or are observed by a meteorologist. These measurements are then recorded and used

More information

Energy Demand Forecasting Industry Practices and Challenges

Energy Demand Forecasting Industry Practices and Challenges Industry Practices and Challenges Mathieu Sinn (IBM Research) 12 June 2014 ACM e-energy Cambridge, UK 2010 2014 IBM IBM Corporation Corporation Outline Overview: Smarter Energy Research at IBM Industry

More information

Totally Integrated Power SIESTORAGE. The modular energy storage system for a reliable power supply. www.siemens.com/siestorage

Totally Integrated Power SIESTORAGE. The modular energy storage system for a reliable power supply. www.siemens.com/siestorage Totally Integrated Power SIESTORAGE The modular energy storage system for a reliable power supply www.siemens.com/siestorage Totally Integrated Power (TIP) We bring power to the point. Our products, systems,

More information

Methodology For Illinois Electric Customers and Sales Forecasts: 2016-2025

Methodology For Illinois Electric Customers and Sales Forecasts: 2016-2025 Methodology For Illinois Electric Customers and Sales Forecasts: 2016-2025 In December 2014, an electric rate case was finalized in MEC s Illinois service territory. As a result of the implementation of

More information

Winds. Winds on a weather map are represented by wind barbs; e.g., Notes:

Winds. Winds on a weather map are represented by wind barbs; e.g., Notes: Winds Winds on a weather map are represented by wind barbs; e.g., flag half flag pennant wind direction The wind is blowing from the side with the flags and pennants (think an arrow with feathers) Speeds

More information

SMART GRIDS PLUS INITIATIVE

SMART GRIDS PLUS INITIATIVE Demand Response for residential customers -business opportunity for utilities ERA-NET SMART GRIDS PLUS INITIATIVE Sami Sailo, There Corporation Energy markets in Finland Supplier A Supplier B Settlement

More information

Full credit for this chapter to Prof. Leonard Bachman of the University of Houston

Full credit for this chapter to Prof. Leonard Bachman of the University of Houston Chapter 6: SOLAR GEOMETRY Full credit for this chapter to Prof. Leonard Bachman of the University of Houston SOLAR GEOMETRY AS A DETERMINING FACTOR OF HEAT GAIN, SHADING AND THE POTENTIAL OF DAYLIGHT PENETRATION...

More information

Integrating Big Data for Environmental Intelligence. Dr Sue Barrell Deputy Director (Observations and Infrastructure)

Integrating Big Data for Environmental Intelligence. Dr Sue Barrell Deputy Director (Observations and Infrastructure) Integrating Big Data for Environmental Intelligence Dr Sue Barrell Deputy Director (Observations and Infrastructure) Public Safety Societal Wellbeing National Security ENVIRONMENTAL INTELLIGENCE Conclusions

More information

CR9971 2 Band Auto Set Dual Alarm Clock Radio ROBERTS. Sound for Generations. Please read this manual before use

CR9971 2 Band Auto Set Dual Alarm Clock Radio ROBERTS. Sound for Generations. Please read this manual before use ROBERTS Sound for Generations CR9971 2 Band Auto Set Dual Alarm Clock Radio Please read this manual before use Contents Contents... 1 Controls...2-5 Switching on... 6 Setting the time manually... 6 Setting

More information

Executive summary 2. 1 Introduction 4

Executive summary 2. 1 Introduction 4 Flexible Networks for a Low Carbon Future Future Network Monitoring Strategy September 2015 Contents Executive summary 2 Glossary 3 1 Introduction 4 2 Fundamental principles of monitoring 5 2.1 LCT monitoring

More information

Maybe you know about the Energy House.

Maybe you know about the Energy House. Plans and experiments for the Energy House can be found at Design Coalition s website at www.designcoalition.org Maybe you know about the Energy House. Here are some more ideas for leaning about the sun

More information

The Discussion of this exercise covers the following points:

The Discussion of this exercise covers the following points: Exercise 2 The Solar Panel (Photovoltaic Panel) EXERCISE OBJECTIVE When you have completed this exercise, you will be familiar with the operation of the silicon photovoltaic (PV) cell. You will be introduced

More information

JIM WITT LONG RANGE CALENDAR

JIM WITT LONG RANGE CALENDAR January 2016 1 2 Partly Cloudy Breezy & Cooler 3 4 5 6 7 8 Partly Cloudy & Cool Increasing Clouds Then A few Rain or Snow, Cooler & Freezing Rain or Snow 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Generally Increasing Clouds

More information

REDUCING UNCERTAINTY IN SOLAR ENERGY ESTIMATES

REDUCING UNCERTAINTY IN SOLAR ENERGY ESTIMATES REDUCING UNCERTAINTY IN SOLAR ENERGY ESTIMATES Mitigating Energy Risk through On-Site Monitoring Marie Schnitzer, Vice President of Consulting Services Christopher Thuman, Senior Meteorologist Peter Johnson,

More information

Weather and climate. reflect. what do you think? look out!

Weather and climate. reflect. what do you think? look out! reflect You re going on vacation in a week and you have to start thinking about what clothes you re going to pack for your trip. You ve read the weather reports for your vacation spot, but you know that

More information

Climates are described by the same conditions used to describe

Climates are described by the same conditions used to describe 58 The Causes of Climate R E A D I N G Climates are described by the same conditions used to describe weather, such as temperature, precipitation, and wind. You now know that oceans have an important effect

More information

Solar and Wind Energy for Greenhouses. A.J. Both 1 and Tom Manning 2

Solar and Wind Energy for Greenhouses. A.J. Both 1 and Tom Manning 2 Solar and Wind Energy for Greenhouses A.J. Both 1 and Tom Manning 2 1 Associate Extension Specialist 2 Project Engineer NJ Agricultural Experiment Station Rutgers University 20 Ag Extension Way New Brunswick,

More information

Mixing Heights & Smoke Dispersion. Casey Sullivan Meteorologist/Forecaster National Weather Service Chicago

Mixing Heights & Smoke Dispersion. Casey Sullivan Meteorologist/Forecaster National Weather Service Chicago Mixing Heights & Smoke Dispersion Casey Sullivan Meteorologist/Forecaster National Weather Service Chicago Brief Introduction Fire Weather Program Manager Liaison between the NWS Chicago office and local

More information

Investigating the Impact of Solar Variability on Grid Stability. Prepared by CAT Projects & ARENA for public distribution

Investigating the Impact of Solar Variability on Grid Stability. Prepared by CAT Projects & ARENA for public distribution Investigating the Impact of Solar Variability on Grid Stability Prepared by CAT Projects & ARENA for public distribution March 2015 This report was produced with funding support from the Australian Renewable

More information

Schedule TOU-GS-1-RTP Sheet 1 GENERAL SERVICE - SMALL REAL TIME PRICING

Schedule TOU-GS-1-RTP Sheet 1 GENERAL SERVICE - SMALL REAL TIME PRICING Southern California Edison Revised Cal. PUC Sheet No. 58261-E Rosemead, California (U 338-E) Cancelling Revised Cal. PUC Sheet No. 57813-E APPLICABILITY Schedule TOU-GS-1-RTP Sheet 1 Applicable to Bundled

More information

Design and Re-Use Of Shovadans In Today's Architecture "With Due Attention To Have Thermal Energy Of The Earth"

Design and Re-Use Of Shovadans In Today's Architecture With Due Attention To Have Thermal Energy Of The Earth RESEARCH INVENTY: International Journal of Engineering and Science ISBN: 2319-6483, ISSN: 2278-4721, Vol. 1, Issue 8 (November 2012), PP 60-64 www.researchinventy.com Design and Re-Use Of Shovadans In

More information

REGIONAL CLIMATE AND DOWNSCALING

REGIONAL CLIMATE AND DOWNSCALING REGIONAL CLIMATE AND DOWNSCALING Regional Climate Modelling at the Hungarian Meteorological Service ANDRÁS HORÁNYI (horanyi( horanyi.a@.a@met.hu) Special thanks: : Gabriella Csima,, Péter Szabó, Gabriella

More information

Texas Department of Public Safety Texas Division of Emergency Management. Texas State Operations Center

Texas Department of Public Safety Texas Division of Emergency Management. Texas State Operations Center Texas Department of Public Safety Texas Division of Emergency Management Texas State Operations Center Situation Awareness Brief Saturday, July 20 th 2013 As of 0900 CDT Tropical Weather Outlook For the

More information

2016 ERCOT System Planning Long-Term Hourly Peak Demand and Energy Forecast December 31, 2015

2016 ERCOT System Planning Long-Term Hourly Peak Demand and Energy Forecast December 31, 2015 2016 ERCOT System Planning Long-Term Hourly Peak Demand and Energy Forecast December 31, 2015 2015 Electric Reliability Council of Texas, Inc. All rights reserved. Long-Term Hourly Peak Demand and Energy

More information

Siting of Active Solar Collectors and Photovoltaic Modules

Siting of Active Solar Collectors and Photovoltaic Modules SOLAR CENTER INFORMATION NCSU Box 7401 Raleigh, NC 27695 (919) 515-3480 Toll Free 1-800-33-NC SUN Siting of Active Solar Collectors and Photovoltaic Modules To install a solar energy system properly, it

More information

Optimum Solar Orientation: Miami, Florida

Optimum Solar Orientation: Miami, Florida Optimum Solar Orientation: Miami, Florida The orientation of architecture in relation to the sun is likely the most significant connection that we can make to place in regards to energy efficiency. In

More information

MAST ACADEMY OUTREACH. WOW (Weather on Wheels)

MAST ACADEMY OUTREACH. WOW (Weather on Wheels) MAST ACADEMY OUTREACH MIDDLE SCHOOL PROGRAM Adventures Aboard WOW (Weather on Wheels) Highlights Teacher Instructions / Answer Keys MAST Academy Maritime and Science Technology High School Miami-Dade County

More information

Solar Variability and Forecasting

Solar Variability and Forecasting Solar Variability and Forecasting Jan Kleissl, Chi Chow, Matt Lave, Patrick Mathiesen, Anders Nottrott, Bryan Urquhart Mechanical & Environmental Engineering, UC San Diego http://solar.ucsd.edu Variability

More information

Exploring Solar Energy Variations on Earth: Changes in the Length of Day and Solar Insolation Through the Year

Exploring Solar Energy Variations on Earth: Changes in the Length of Day and Solar Insolation Through the Year Exploring Solar Energy Variations on Earth: Changes in the Length of Day and Solar Insolation Through the Year Purpose To help students understand how solar radiation varies (duration and intensity) during

More information

Global Seasonal Phase Lag between Solar Heating and Surface Temperature

Global Seasonal Phase Lag between Solar Heating and Surface Temperature Global Seasonal Phase Lag between Solar Heating and Surface Temperature Summer REU Program Professor Tom Witten By Abstract There is a seasonal phase lag between solar heating from the sun and the surface

More information

Ringing at the Door. Boiling an egg. Moving by car. Flows of solar energy. There is no energy crisis. How to boil an egg?

Ringing at the Door. Boiling an egg. Moving by car. Flows of solar energy. There is no energy crisis. How to boil an egg? Delft University of Technology There is no energy crisis How to boil an egg? Prof. Dr. Ad van Wijk 20-10-2011 Energy efficiency world wide is about 2% The sun gives us in one hour more energy than the

More information

Leveraging Renewable Energy in Data Centers: Present and Future

Leveraging Renewable Energy in Data Centers: Present and Future Leveraging Renewable Energy in Data Centers: Present and Future Ricardo Bianchini Department of Computer Science Collaborators: Josep L. Berral, Inigo Goiri, Jordi Guitart, Md. Haque, William Katsak, Kien

More information

REDUCING ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND PEAK POWER IN BELGIUM

REDUCING ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND PEAK POWER IN BELGIUM REDUCING ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND PEAK POWER IN BELGIUM With the support of: info@3e.eu www.3e.eu PRESENTATION CONTENT Outline Objective Background Energy efficiency: examples in 3 sectors Residential: electric

More information

22nd European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference Milan, Italy, September 2007

22nd European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference Milan, Italy, September 2007 CLASSIFICATION OF ENERGY MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS FOR RENEWABLE ENERGY HYBRID SYSTEMS K. Bromberger, K. Brinkmann Department of Automation and Energy Systems Technology, University of Applied Sciences Trier

More information