Lesson #436. The Animals` Guide to Sports Betting

Transcription

1 Lesson #436 The Animals` Guide to Sports Betting

2 This is part of the series The Animals Guide to Sports Betting which will be made available fully on gamblers-united.com Notes: There aren t anywhere near hundreds of lessons planed for this guide; There will be animals from time to time; gamblers-united.com Sports betting is fun even if you re not a winner in the long run; there s no need for anyone to actually study all the lessons; Go to gamblers-united.com and follow our social media profiles if you want to find out when I m posting the rest of the presentations; My name is Laurentiu Andronache and I m a professional gambler.

3 Definition The honest odds are the odds that you would get if the bookmaker was your friend and he didn`t care about making a profit in the long run. Note: Remember that odds are just a method in which you express probabilities, therefore it doesn`t matter what kind you prefer (UK, US, EU). Whatever you read here works. You just might need to do some extra math to deduce the formulas in your case. In order to help, I will post the equation with percentages as well.

4 If the bookmaker could handicap events perfectly, with the perfect odds you would break even. You`d stop losing money.

5 Capybara (largest rodents in the world) Why you should know this 1. If you don t, you might start to believe that the risks offered by your bookmaker are appropriately rewarded. 2. Reason #2 3. Reason 3!!! 4. Reason 4

6 Let s take as an example Real Madrid vs Barcelona. We ll look at the odds at Asian Handicap 0, also known as DNB. On this type of bet you get your stake back if the match ends in a draw.

7 Let s say you don t know any better and you have an account with Ladbrokes. They offer decimal odds 1.77 and 1.98 respectively. This would translate to probabilities of approximately 56.5% and 50.5% expressed percentually = = %

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10 Basically they re 1.89 and 2.12, which is a lot higher than what Ladbrokes offered us (1.77 and 1.98 respectively). Considering the power of compound growth that comes with investing, they are unacceptable. Let s see how we got to this result: Honest odds instead of 1.77 = = = 52.8% Honest odds instead of 1.98 = = = 57.2% 1.77 As I am quite a gentleman, I ve converted them to percentages as well. You can notice that they total 100%, which makes sense. You can deduce the formula for decimal odds yourself. I know I ve said that I ll also write the equation for percentages, but I lied. Instead, I ll start you on the path to discovering it: 56.5% 107%? 100% If you prefer other type of odds instead of decimal, here s more starting help: How to convert UK odds to percentages: How to convert US odds to percentages: If the odds are a/b (a to b), the formula is: b a+b If the odds are x and x < 0, the formula is x x+100 Example for decimal odds 1.66, which are UK odds 4/6: If the odds are x and x > 0, the formula is 100 x+100 4/6 expressed percentually = = 0.6 = 60% Example: for -150 it would be ( 150) = = 60%

11 Basically they re 1.89 and 2.12, which is a lot higher than what Ladbrokes offered us (1.77 and 1.98 respectively). Considering the power of compound growth that comes with investing, they are unacceptable. Let s see how we got to this result: Honest odds instead of 1.77 = = = 52.8% Honest odds instead of 1.98 = = = 57.2% 1.77 As I am quite a gentleman, I ve converted them to percentages as well. You can notice that they total 100%, which makes sense. You can deduce the formula for decimal odds yourself. I know I ve said that I ll also write the equation for percentages, but I lied. Instead, I ll start you on the path to discovering it: 56.5% 107%? 100% If you prefer other type of odds instead of decimal, here s more starting help: How to convert UK odds to percentages: How to convert US odds to percentages: If the odds are a/b (a to b), the formula is: b a+b If the odds are x and x < 0, the formula is x x+100 Example for decimal odds 1.66, which are UK odds 4/6: If the odds are x and x > 0, the formula is 100 x+100 4/6 expressed percentually = = 0.6 = 60% Example: for -150 it would be ( 150) = = 60%

12 What getting bad odds can mean for your return of investment % Return of investment 80.00% 60.00% 40.00% 20.00% 0.00% % % % % % -2.00% 0.00% 2.00% % Bad odds Tight odds Honest odds Good odds

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14 Now that you know this Start calculating the honest odds at the bookmaker that you re using. After you discover that they re much higher than what you usually get, read here which bookmakers are the best and why:

15 Thank you for reading. Hopefully you took a pen and paper and did the math as well. Share this on social media and I will personally send you 45 units of good luck per click.