Björn Bäckström, Lars Olsén and Simon Renström Copyright 2012 ClaroBet AB. Updated: Apr. 19, 12 You may not distribute or copy any of the text or use

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2 2 Björn Bäckström, Lars Olsén and Simon Renström Copyright 2012 ClaroBet AB. Updated: Apr. 19, 12 You may not distribute or copy any of the text or use it in any other way except for personal use, without specific written permission from the authors.

3 Introduction to Sports Arbitrage... 5 What is Sports Arbitrage?... 5 How does it work?... 5 Why isn't everyone doing it?... 5 Don't the bookies dislike arbitrage bettors?... 6 Is arbitrage betting legal?... 6 How much time does it take?... 6 The math behind an arbitrage... 7 The Risks and How to Avoid Them... 8 What's the catch?... 8 Bet cancellation... 8 Individual errors... 9 Moving odds Limiting books The Bookmakers...12 Bookmakers and their traits Get familiar with the bookie websites Sports and leagues Markets Deposit and withdrawal differences Account security Maximum stake information The betting procedure Bonus offers How much should I bet on a single match with my bankroll? What bet amount is the minimum to start arbing with? How many bookies do I need to have accounts at? Which books do you recommend me to use when new to this? Paper trading...16 The Bets way way Asian Handicap (AH) Asian Handicap result table European Handicap (EH) Over Under Middles Inverted Middles

4 Cross Markets The Sports...24 Football (soccer) Tennis Basketball Ice Hockey Baseball American Football Rugby and Aussie Rules Bankroll Management...27 Why is it needed? How will it help me? How do I keep track of my bets and transactions? When opening bookmaker accounts Currency how to choose? Bookmaker account balances Lay-betting in Sports Arbitrage...29 Lay bet example Using lay betting in Sports Arbitrage Lay betting terms Further lay bet info Taking Advantage of the Bonuses...31 Bonuses to boost your bankroll early on How it works How to make sure you will profit on your free-bet A free-bet combined with a lay-bet on Betfair Moving on to the next bookmaker Tips and Tricks of the trade...34 Use common sense Round your stake Look at the odds Verify your bets before you bet on them Bet placement order Don t hammer weak lines Keep it simple in the beginning Don t make unnecessary withdrawals Learn to navigate the bookmakers Try to figure out the bet types Theory to Practice...37 Turning your knowledge into practice

5 Arbitrage is the well known financial practice of taking advantage of a price differential between two markets. In the case of sports arbitrage, the "prices" are the odds, and the markets are two or more competing bookmakers. The situation occurs when both bookmakers have sufficiently high odds on each side of an event. You place a bet on both participants, covering all outcomes of the game, and are guaranteed a profit. Arbitrage situations happen regularly, hundreds of times every day. Sports arbitrage betting on the internet has existed for almost a decade, and a lot of people have made (and still are making) good money from it. The easiest way to explain an arbitrage is in a 2-way event such as a tennis event, a basketball event (with no draw option) or an ice hockey event that includes potential overtime and penalties. In all of these events, there will be a winner. Let s take an example of a 2-way hockey game. Team1 at Bookie1 has the odds 2,05 and Team2 at Bookie2 has the odds 2,05. If you bet $500 at both bookies, you win $25 regardless of which team wins. You have placed a total of $1000 and you will get $1025 back, no matter the outcome of the event. You ll find a more detailed explanation of this further down in this e-book. Until now, the existing tools have been very difficult to use (and to be honest, often of poor quality). A sports arbitrage opportunity (or just an arb ) doesn t exist for very long, usually between 1-10 minutes. Some arbs are around longer but that s more of an exception than a rule. This means that it s crucial that you get as close to real-time odds as you can from the bookies. It s not much worth to get free arbitrage text messages for instance. By the time you receive the text message to your phone, the arb is long gone and the bookies have lowered their odds. You can expect to make up to about 15% per month of your total arbitrage bankroll. The exact percentage stands in direct proportion to the time you invest. A goal of 10% per month is however very realistic for anyone who puts his or her mind to it. The minimum bankroll that you should use is about $500. Anything less than that and you will have trouble keeping the different bookmaker accounts funded and ready to go. To be able to make decent money on sports arbitrage betting you ll need a significantly bigger starting bankroll. For instance, if you aim for a profit of 10% per month, a $1500 bankroll will make you $150/month. For some people this might be enough, but for others it s just not worth the effort. This is key to why 5

6 everyone isn t doing it the return on investment seems too low in relation to the effort. But think about this for a second 10% per month?! That s a huge interest! Compare this to any other financial savings account out there. They pay maybe 5% per year, if you re lucky. Why should you put a few thousand dollars in your savings account with an interest of less than 0,5% per month when you could invest them (and have fun while doing it) by betting on sports arbitrage and make +60% per year? This is a question very few people have asked themselves. Feels good that you re not one of them anymore, doesn t it? Another reason why everyone isn t doing it is that learning the arbitrage betting trade requires some time and dedication. The bulk of this time lies in the beginning to fully understand how stuff works. It s like everything else really; you ll have to learn it to earn it! There are a lot of questions about this. The short answer is not really. First, look at it from the bookmaker s point of view. Running a bookie today is very competitive and the books are forced to compete about having the best odds on the market. If they do not compete with the other books around, they will not live very long online, because every other bookie will have better odds, and the customers will realize this and move to another, for them more profitable bookie. This is why arbitrage betting always will be around, and there will always be new books entering the market, wanting to compete with the more established books out there. Sure, some books do not like "sharp bettors" (like you), and might limit your account after a time, but there are A LOT of books around, and plenty of arbs on the market. Other books don t care about arbers, they always accept bets and never limit your account. Yes. Betting on sports arbitrage is the same as making regular bets. It is 100% legal and has been around for a long time. However, it s your responsibility to verify that online sports gambling is legal where you reside. As previously explained, the time you invest stands in direct proportion to your potential winnings. And it takes more time as a beginner, as you ll have to learn the basics first. If you are dedicated of learning the basics, you ll be up and running in a few days. The time you ll spend after that is to have the software running in the background of your computer. You will not even have to monitor the software as it will notify you with audio and visual alerts when an arb has been found. When you get an alert from the software, you simply click on the arbitrage, and a couple of minutes later you re done and can forget about it. And you ve then made probably 1-5% of your total stake for that event. Because an arbitrage is only alive for a few minutes, the 6

7 longer you can have the software running, the more arbs you will find. It sounds easy doesn t it? Well, it is! At a single bookie, the odds of a specific event are calculated in such a way that the book always has a small edge. This edge is often known as the juice of the bookie. The bigger the edge the bookie has, the more they profit from the event and the more you lose in the long run. You can convert bookie odds to probability by dividing 1 with the odds. The odds 2.45 for example mean that the bookies odds experts give that outcome of the event a probability of 41% (40.82%) of happening. The odds 1.55 calculates to (1/1.55) 65% (64.52%). When both the probabilities combined exceed 100% (105.3% in the example above) the bookies edge vs the player is 5.3% (or a -5.3% arb). The profit of this edge goes to the bookmakers. An arbitrage arises when the sum of the two inverted odds is below 1, for example: You bet on a tennis event. Federer to win has odds 1.80 at bookmaker William Hill. Nadal to win has odds 2.45 at bookmaker Gamebookers. If you place $585 on William Hill for Federer to win and $430 on Gamebookers for Nadal to win you have placed a total of $1015. The different outcomes of the event are: If Federer wins, your return will be a total of $1053 (1.8*$585=$1053) If Nadal wins, your return will be a total of $1053,50 (2.45*$430=$ ) This means that you will profit $38 or $38.50 depending on who wins the match if you use RebelBetting. Pretty good for a minutes work, don t you think? And the best thing is that you don t need worry about calculating the stakes RebelBetting does this for you! 7

8 In the previous part of the RebelBetting Arbitrage Boot Camp, you ve gotten to know how sports arbitrage works. Now, to the most common question of them all: ' As the saying goes, there s no such thing as a free lunch. The free lunch always comes with some kind of catch. The catch in sports arbitrage is that there are risks in the trade and you will experience them. Anyone who says otherwise is lying. But don t worry; there are quite a few ways to avoid them, and to minimize the potential effects from them. Experienced arbers make very few mistakes, and always win in the long run! A bookmaker can cancel (void) your bet, claiming it was a palpable error (commonly known as a palp ). This can occur when a bookmaker has made an obvious mistake, such as reversed the odds of a match or some other kind of accidental error made while quoting the odds. Every bookmaker can void a bet. The palp-rule does not occur very often, but it happens. Certain bookies cancel bets more often than others. Also, bookies can cancel a bet at any time. They can void the bet before the match begins, during the match or after completion. Books with good reputation however usually don t void a bet after the match has started. The bet cancellation is the single biggest catch in sports arbitrage trading. There are however ways to greatly minimize the risks of this happening: Look out for odds that seem to be reversed. If you see a tennis arb that is 25%, it s most definitely not a valid arbitrage. An example would be if Bookie1 had odds 2.45 to win, and Bookie2 had 2.55 to win. This would probably be a reversed odds situation. Keep an eye on other bookmaker s odds. If one bookmaker really stands out with a high odds on a particular game, that bookie may have made a mistake while setting their prices. Always confirm your bet on the bookmaker that you think is least willing to accept your bet first. An example would be the book that does not show their max stake until you have confirmed the bet. You will get accustomed to which these books are when you get some experience. This way, you will minimize the risk of the second bookie not accepting your bet (and thus leaving you with an open bet at one outcome). Never leave your uncovered bet open. Cover your bet as much as you can if the bookmaker voids the bet before the match begins. If the bookmaker voids your bet during the match, try to cover your bet as best as you can with live-betting (in-play). You might have to lock in a 8

9 small loss of a few %, but that s way better than losing your entire stake in a gamble if you leave your bet open. If the bookmaker voids your bet after the match is complete (not very common, but it happens), accept this fact and learn from the experience you have gained, by analyzing why it happened. If you want to be a successful sports arbitrage bettor, you need to keep your cool and always be certain that you bet on the right sport, date, event, odds type, odds and finally the right bet amount. Think Ice Man in Top Gun keep your head cool, and you will avoid to be shot down (and get some bogeys while you re at it). Examples of common mistakes would be if you accidentally bet on the wrong team, or if you realize after you have confirmed a bet on Bookie1, that you don t have enough funds on Bookie2 to complete your arb. Another example would be if you bet on say a Rugby match that is about to start in 3 minutes. If the books change their odds while you are in the midst of betting, you might end up with an open bet on one of the teams when the event starts. Always verify your bets before confirming them at the bookmakers. Double check that everything is correct. Double check the participants, odds, time of event, stake etc. Don t bet on events that will start in just a few minutes. Always give yourself ample time to correct eventual errors. Never leave your uncovered bet open. Cover your bet as much as you can if the bookmaker voids the bet before the match begins. If the bookmaker voids your bet during the match, try to cover your bet as best as you can with live-betting (in-play). You might have to lock in a small loss of a few %, but that s way better than losing your entire stake in a gamble if you leave your bet open. Learn from the experience you have gained. 9

10 Moving odds is the most common risk of arbitraging. This is part of the business, and you ll learn to accept it. It s not a big problem really, if you have to take a small loss of say -2% on one arb, it only takes a +2% arb to cover the previous loss. It happens from time to time that you have confirmed a bet at Bookie1 and the odds have changed at Bookie2, making the arb small, or even a negative arb. These changing odds trap will happen less frequently the more you arb. You will eventually get the experience necessary to minimize this risk. Think twice about placing an arb on the event if there s a lot of movement in the odds of a particular match. Some bookmakers are faster than others when changing odds, and you could get caught in the middle when arbing on these events. That is, you could successfully place the bet on Outcome1, but when you confirm your bet on Outcome2, the odds might have changed if it s a fast bookie. Avoid getting caught in the middle by always confirming your bet on the bookmaker that you think is least willing to accept your bet first. Never leave your uncovered bet open. Cover your bet as much as you can if the bookmaker voids the bet before the match begins. If the bookmaker voids your bet during the match, try to cover your bet as best as you can with live-betting (in-play). You might have to lock in a small loss of a few %, but that s way better than losing your entire stake in a gamble if you leave your bet open. Learn from the experience you have gained. 10

11 Books will limit you eventually if you use your betting account solely for arbitrage betting and this is a fact you'll have to accept. Actually, it isn't really Sports Arbitrage itself that they don't like. Think of the bookies as casinos in the US - if you are a constant winner, they will limit you sooner or later, or close your account. Some books limit you after 3-4 large bets, some after weeks, months or years. Some books limit you faster if you consistently bet on palpable errors. There are also books that NEVER limit you. There are a few theories of how to avoid being limited. However none of them are confirmed as "true". Avoiding limits is just a guessing game really, but some common sense will take you a long way. However, there are a few things you should think about: Round your stake. Try to round your stake as best you can to even 5 s. So instead of betting $237 at a single bookmaker, bet $235 or $240. Do not bet on obvious palps. This is a sure way of getting limited. Arbitrages over 5% should immediately raise a cautious warning flag. Do not make unnecessary withdrawals from a bookie. Do not withdraw funds from books if you do not have to. Keeping withdrawals to a minimum is good. Think twice about betting on low tier, foreign leagues. Some books might raise an eyebrow if you bet a lot of money on a division 3 basketball league in a foreign country. The bottom line is that you never know when a book might limit you. The only thing you can do is to accept the limitation of your account and move on to the next bookmaker. There are a great number of good books out there. All you have to do is to move on to the next one. Every bookmaker out there wants you to refer people you know to them, so why not refer your friends and family to your favorite books? 11

12 There are a lot of online bookmakers around. Sports Book Review has a massive list of online sports books, and there are about 1000 (yeah you read it right, one thousand) online bookies on this list. However, you shouldn t go anywhere near the vast majority of some of these books. A few bookmakers on this list are even considered to be outright scams, as they do not process withdrawals and con their customers. But don t worry, there are a lot of good ones out there, and some are even excellent! There are a few things to know about bookmakers. The most obvious is of course that the bookies have different websites. It takes some time to get familiar with a new bookie and we recommend that you get used to the different layouts, account settings, betting procedures etc, before you start placing bets on the bookie. It s always good to be prepared if you need to make a quick deposit to a bookie, and don t have to start searching where on the webpage you have to click to do this. Among the other differences, let s list the most important ones below: Different books offer different bets on different sports and leagues. The more well-known a sport and league is, the more bookies offer that sport and league. For instance, probably every bookie offers odds on English Premier League matches (but not many books offer odds in the Korean K3 League, third tier football in Korea). Bookies have a lot of different odds types to bet on, for instance 2way, 3way, Asian Handicap, total points, set betting, correct score etc. This will be explained further later on. About 80% of the books out there have free deposits and withdrawals. Some books offer for instance only one free withdrawal in a specified time frame (i.e. one withdrawal per 15 days or the like). Also, there are some differences of deposit methods, but most of them supports VISA and MasterCard, as well as E-Wallets like NETeller and Moneybookers. Some books need verification documents before any withdrawals are made. These documents are often a photograph or scanned copy of your ID, a recent utility bill (for instance electric bill) where your name and address is shown and so on. The bookies have these security measures to verify that 12

13 you are actually who you claim to be. Some books even need this verification to be made within a timeframe of your initial first deposit. When you are in a process of placing a bet on a bookie, some of them show the max stake they allow and some don t. For instance, if you hover your pointer over a bet at Pinnacle, you often see the max stake that can be placed on that event. At Gamebookers for example, you have to click on show max after you have placed the game on your bet slip in order to see the max stake of that event. There are also books like Bwin and Victor Chandler for instance, that doesn t show the max amount until you confirm your bet. This means that you don t know if you can place a certain amount until after you press confirm. Only then will you know if your bet will be accepted or not. Different books have different betting procedures. There are a few different variations here, and it s important for you to get to know them. The best way to do this is to practice, first without actually placing money on an event, and later on with small sums to get to know the bookies different steps. Let s take Pinnacle and Bwin as examples of the various betting procedures in a 3-way event (1X2). At Pinnacle, you enter your wager amount into the wager box under the Money Line column (you also see the max stake on the same page). After you have entered an amount to bet, you press Submit Wagers and you are directed to a confirmation page. This is the page where you can review you wager (check that you ve chosen the right event and confirm your wager amount) and see if the odds have changed since the last step. If the odds haven t changed, you click Confirm. This will direct you to another page, where you can see if the bet has or hasn t been confirmed. In effect, there are two steps to place a bet at Pinnacle. The enter amount -step and the confirm -step. At Bwin you click on the outcome you wish to bet on. This adds the event to your bet slip. Enter your wager amount in the box on your bet slip and click next. This takes you to your bet slip confirmation step. If you click Place bet, your wager will be processed. There is a catch here though, Bwin doesn t show the max stake or max winnings on a specific event until after this step, which means that you may have to lower your stake and confirm the bet again if it gets refused the first time. The two steps above (maximum stake and betting procedure) are crucial for you to know about when starting out with arbitrage betting. It means for example that if you are placing an arb between Pinnacle and Bwin, and you confirm your bet on Pinnacle before you confirm on Bwin, Bwin might have a limit on the event in question and you ll be forced to wager a smaller amount than you need to bet. Avoid this issue by confirming on Bwin before Pinnacle. Always confirm your bet on the bookmaker that you think is least willing to accept your bet first. 13

14 We recommend you to carefully test the bookies betting procedures before you start betting with bigger amounts. There are a lot of bonus offers out there that are very valuable to you when you start your arbitrage career. If you don t have any accounts on any bookie, there are thousands of dollars of bonuses out there for you to grab. Different bonuses have different requirements, such as deposit requirements, wager amount requirements and so on. Read the requirements thoroughly. When arbitrage betting, your turnover will be big making the bonuses easy and quick to complete. How to take full advantage of the bonus offers is explained in detail in the Taking Advantage of the Bonuses section a bit later on in this e-book. The bookies have different rules on certain sports, where tennis matches are the most common sport to have different rules on. There are 4 different tennis rules on the market today, and they can be categorized as follows: Group1 (Ball Served) Group2 (1 Set Completed) Group3 (2 Sets Completed) Group4 (Match Completed) Please read more about these different rules in our frequently asked questions page here: It could be extremely risky mixing rules in an arbitrage, and therefore we do not recommend doing it if you do not fully understand the risks of it. Mixing rules is not arbitrage betting, it s gambling. This is a difficult question to answer, as there are so many variables to take into consideration. The bet size will depend on multiple factors, such as how well known the match is (English premiership or Uzbek Oily Liga), which bookmakers the bet is at, what market etc. A 3-way bet on a well known match can have big limits, while the correct score or halftime/fulltime market may have much smaller limits. If you have no idea of the bet size however, you could bet on an arbitrage with a total stake of around 5-10% of your total bankroll as a guideline. That is, if you have a total bankroll of $10,000, your total wager for a game would be $500-$1000 (however, never bet more than you are comfortable with). You could be betting on up to games/matches every day, and this means that you should always be able to bet on a good arb when the opportunity arises. Also, the actual event date on some bets you place might be a couple of days ahead, which means that you sometimes have funds locked up pending game completion. 14

15 One thing that may be more important than bet size however, is a basic strategy to keep your bookmaker accounts balanced. This question will be addressed in the Bankroll management section of this e-book. First, you should take a couple of days to place arbitrages without actually placing any money (paper trading). This will give you valuable experience of the steps you have to take on different bookies. You should even keep a book of the play money transactions, such as deposits, bet amounts etc, to get familiar with the process of sports arbitrage betting and watch as your fictional investment increases (the concept of paper trading is explained in detail in the next chapter). When you feel comfortable with your paper trading, it s time to start out with betting a total stake of about $50 per arb. This way, you will get even more comfortable with arbitrage betting, and if you make a mistake (betting on the wrong match, wrong odds, different event dates etc., discussed in the Risks and how to avoid them chapter), it will not cost you too much. You could start with as little as 5 bookies, but we recommend starting out with around 10. The number of arbs you can place won t be huge with 5 books, but there is a learning period at the start of your career, and having more than 10 bookies in the beginning could be confusing. Also, the number of bookies you can have depends on the bankroll amount you are arbing with. If you have for instance a total of $500 to bet with, 10 bookies will be too many, as you should always make sure to keep a bookie funded for the next few bets. Our list of supported bookmakers is based on our own experiences and we have been successfully starting out with these: Pinnacle, Betfair (exchange), Bwin, Unibet, 188 Bet, William Hill, Betsson, Ladbrokes, Stan James and Panbet. Please note that the single most important bookie of them all to have is Pinnacle. The best exchange, Betfair, is invaluable as well. For links to all our supported bookies, please visit: 15

16 Do not dismiss the importance of paper trading! Here s how to do it: The easiest way is to just go through every step you would have if you where betting for real, except the last one where you actually confirm your bets at the bookmakers. That is: 1. Find the match and the bets at each bookmakers 2. Verify that the odds haven't changed 3. Add them to the bet slip 4. Enter your stakes 5. Check and double check that everything is correct 6. Mentally place your arb 7. Log your bets in your log book This way, you will get a feel for how each bookmaker behaves, what steps are required and so on. You don't actually place the bets, but you should enter them in your log book (explained in the Bankroll Management chapter). You will then get familiar with how to keep track of your bets, and after the match has been completed you can practice logging the outcomes of your fictional arbs in the log book. Continue (paper trading) over and over until you are comfortable with: The concept of sports arbitrage The different bookmakers Verifying your fictional bets before you mentally "place" the bets that produce an arb How to log your bets How to log the outcome of your bets See how your arb profit increases from day to day 16

17 In this part, we will discuss some different markets to bet on, and how they work. A common arb is a two way arb where there s no draw outcome. An example of this would be a tennis match, a basketball game, a two way ice hockey game with overtime and penalties included and so on. It s easy to bet on a two way arb, you only have to bet on two outcomes between two books. Also known as Win, MoneyLine, PuckLine or Draw no bet. There are also a lot of three way arbs out there and the most common one of them all is betting on a soccer match that can end in a draw. As with the two way arb, it s straightforward, betting on all three possible outcomes. Also known as 1X2. Turns a 3-way bet into a 2-way, eliminating the draw option by a handicap. Asian Handicap (AH) is becoming very popular and there are a lot of AH arbs on the market today. It is also known as 2-way handicap. Betting on Asian Handicap is simply a way to spread bet on soccer, but more importantly it s a way to reduce the possible outcomes from three (1X2) in a match to only two (12). Offering AH lines is a way for the bookmakers to even out the odds in a particular match, giving the underdog a head start in goals in order to balance a match. Asian Handicap (0) is also known as pk at some bookmakers (for pick-em ). For example, if the Premier League team Manchester United was to meet a random division 5 team, the odds on a three way match would probably be something similar to this: Manchester United 1.02 Draw Division5 Team But the same match offered as Asian Handicap could look like this: Bet 1. Manchester United (-3) 1.9 Bet 2. Division5 Team (+3) 1.9 Possible outcomes In the example above, the Division5 Team is rewarded a three goal handicap before the match begins. If Manchester U loses, or wins with less than three goals, Bet 2 is the winning bet. If Manchester U wins with more than three goals, Bet 1 is the winning bet. If Manchester U wins with exactly three goals, the wagers are refunded. 17

18 Bookmakers also offer half goal and quarter goal Asian Handicaps. As no team can ever score a fraction of a goal, the draw option is not applicable. Half goal Asian Handicap Bet 1. Manchester United (-3.5) 1.9 Bet 2. Division5 Team (+3.5) 1.9 Possible outcomes If Manchester U loses, or wins with less than four goals the Bet 2 is the winning bet. If Manchester U wins with four goals or more, Bet 1 is the winning bet. Quarter goal Asian Handicap A $1000 bet on a 3.75 handicap is the same as betting $500 at (3.5) and $500 at (4). A 3.75 handicap can also be presented as 3.5 and 4, or 3½ and 4. Bet 1. Manchester United (-3.75) 1.9 Bet 2. Division5 Team (+3.75) 1.9 Possible outcomes If Manchester U loses, or wins with less than four goals Bet 2 is the winning bet. If Manchester U wins with more than four goals Bet 1 is the winning bet. If Manchester U wins with exactly four goals, you win half your stake on Bet 1 and lose half your stake on Bet 2. If you re new to Asian Handicap, this could be quite confusing at first. However, once you get the hang of it, it s quite straight forward. 18

19 Below is a summary table of how your bet will be graded depending on what handicap you bet on and the outcome of the match. Bet on (AH) Wins with 3 or more Wins with exactly 2 Wins with exactly 1 Draw Loses with exactly 1 Loses with exactly 2 +2 Win Win Win Win Win Push Lose Win Win Win Win Win Lose/Push Lose +1.5 Win Win Win Win Win Lose Lose Win Win Win Win Win/Push Lose Lose +1 Win Win Win Win Push Lose Lose Win Win Win Win Lose/Push Lose Lose +0.5 Win Win Win Win Lose Lose Lose Win Win Win Win/Push Lose Lose Lose ±0 (pk) Win Win Win Push Lose Lose Lose Win Win Win Lose/Push Lose Lose Lose -0.5 Win Win Win Lose Lose Lose Lose Win Win Win/Push Lose Lose Lose Lose -1 Win Win Push Lose Lose Lose Lose Win Win Lose/Push Lose Lose Lose Lose -1.5 Win Win Lose Lose Lose Lose Lose Win Win/Push Lose Lose Lose Lose Lose -2 Win Push Lose Lose Lose Lose Lose Loses with 3 or more Table headings Bet on (AH) Wins with x Draw Loses with x What handicap you bet on The team you bet on wins with x goals The match ends in a draw The team you bet on loses with x goals Outcomes Win Lose Push Win/Push Lose/Push You win your bet in full You lose your bet in full Your entire bet is refunded to your account (some bookies call this void or cancelled) You win half your bet and get the other half refunded back to your account You lose half your bet and get the other half refunded back to your account The match is between Manchester United Liverpool. You bet on Liverpool (can also be presented as -0.5 and -1 or -¾ ) and the match ends 1-2 for a Liverpool victory. As Liverpool won with exactly 1 goal, you can see in the table that your bet will be graded as Win/Push. 19

20 Unlike Asian Handicap, where the possible outcomes of a match are reduced to two, European Handicap (EH) is a three way handicap. This means that you have three possible outcomes. European Handicap are also sometimes called 1X2 Handicap, or 3-way handicap. If Ajax where to meet Chelsea in a Club Friendly game, the odds might look like this: Ajax 3.04 Draw 3.30 Chelsea 1.95 But when offered as a European Handicap market, the same match could look like this: Bet 1. Ajax (1) 1.76 Bet 2. Draw (1) 3.60 Bet 3. Chelsea(-1) 3.51 Possible outcomes In the example above, Ajax is awarded a 1 goal handicap before the match begins. If Ajax wins or it s a draw, Bet 1 is the winning bet. If Chelsea wins with exactly one goal, Bet 2 is the winning bet. If Chelsea wins with two goals or more, Bet 3 is the winning bet. Another market to bet on, and one you will find many arbs on, is Over/Under. On this market, you bet on for example Over 2.5 goals in a soccer match, Under 5.5 goals in a hockey match or Over 147 points in a basketball match. A potentially very profitable situation can occur in sports arbitrage, called middles. A middle is a situation where if a match ends with a certain result, you can win both your bets. The simplest way of illustrating this is with an Asian Handicap match. Bet 1. Bet 2. $515 for Team1 (-3) Bookie1 $435 for Team2 (+4) Bookie2 Possible outcomes If Team1 wins with less than three goals, Bet 2 is the winning bet. Total Profit = $28.75 If Team1 wins with more than four goals, Bet 1 is the winning bet. Total Profit = $

21 If Team1 wins with exactly four goals, you win Bet 1, and Bet 2 will be refunded Total Profit = $ If Team1 wins with exactly three goals, Bet 1 will be refunded at Bookie1 and you will win your Bet 2. Total Profit = $ If it s a full goal or point in the middle, and your middle hits, you will win both your bets. Bet 1. Bet 2. Basketball Team1 Bookie1 Basketball Team2 Bookie2 If the middle hits (exactly 147p in the game above), you win both your bets. There are also half-middles, where you (if the middle hits) win one side of your bet and get the other side of the bet refunded in half. This could happen if you bet on quarter outcomes: Bet 1. Bet 2. Team1 Bookie1 Team2 Bookie2 Below is a graphical way of explaining a middle. This time with a basketball game, with the middle hitting (winning both your bets) at exactly 148 points in the game. As you can see, middles could be quite profitable. In some cases, it s even profitable to place a slightly negative arb if it s a middle. The profit you could make if the middle hits might be worth the negative arb percentage in the long run. Also known as Polish Middles, inverted middles are very risky to bet on. If the middle in an inverted middle occurs, you could lose both your bets, hence causing severe damage to your bankroll. If you flip the handicaps on the example above, you get an inverted middle. Cross Market (CM) arbs are a mix of two or more different markets. There are a lot of possible combinations which can result in an arbitrage. Often, CM arbs exists longer as they aren t so obvious that they are in an arb-situation (from the bookmakers point of view). The examples below illustrate a few basic combinations and how to calculate the results. 21

22 A regular 3-way (1X2) arbitrage, but replacing the bet on the home team (1) with a simple asian handicap bet, AH1(0). Bet 1. Team1 Bookie1 AH1(0) Bet 2. Draw Bookie2 X Bet 3. Team2 Bookie3 2 Possible outcomes Team1 win: You will win Bet 1. A draw: You will get Bet 1 refunded and win Bet 2. Team2 win: You will win Bet 3. A regular 3-way (1x2) arbitrage, replacing the bet on the home team (1) with a quarter Asian Handicap bet, AH1(-0.25). Bet 1. Team1 Bookie1 AH1(-0.25) Bet 2. Draw Bookie2 X Bet 3. Team2 Bookie3 2 Possible outcomes Team1 win: You will win Bet 1. A draw: You will win Bet 2. Also, you will get half your stake at Bet 1 refunded (Since AH1(-0.25) implies that you bet one half of your stake on AH1(0) and the other half on AH1(- 0.5)) Team2 win: You will win Bet 3. A regular 3-way (1x2) arbitrage, replacing the bet on the home team (1) with a 2-way draw no bet, 1(dnb). Bet 1. Team1 Bookie1 1 (dnb) Bet 2. Draw Bookie2 X Bet 3. Team2 Bookie3 2 Possible outcomes Team1 win: You will win Bet 1. A draw: You will win Bet 2. Also, you will get Bet 1 refunded (Since the bet would be refunded if the match ended in a draw). Team2 win: You will win Bet 3. 22

23 Mixing a 3-way bet with a European Handicap bet, resulting in only two possible outcomes. Bet 1. Team1 Bookie1 EH1(1) Bet 2. Team2 Bookie2 2 Possible outcomes Team1 win: You will win Bet 1. A draw: You will win Bet 1. Team2 win: You will win Bet 2. Mixing a draw no bet, Asian Handicap and a regular 3-way bet. Bet 1. Team1 Bookie1 1(dnb) Bet 2. Team2 Bookie2 AH2(0.5) Bet 3. Team2 Bookie3 2 Possible outcomes Team1 win: You will win Bet 1. A draw: You will win Bet 2 and get Bet 1 refunded. Team2 win: You will win Bet 2 and win Bet 3. The examples above are only a few CM combinations that constantly are available to bet on. RebelBetting supports over of these Cross Market combinations. You can mix markets yourself if you know what you re doing. As long as you have every outcome covered you can successfully mix different markets. There are loads of cross markets to bet on out there, all you have to do is be somewhat creative and be sure to cover all outcomes! 23

24 There isn t any need to be an expert on the different sports when sports arbitrage betting, but it s good to at least have a basic understanding about the sports you will be betting on. Generally, the closer to an event it is, the more arbs appear. This is due to the fact that bookmakers adjust their odds more frequently closer to a match (depending on lots of factors such as the weather, injuries, team/player form, rumors etcetera). Some bookmakers also adjust odds in order to attract more customers closer to an event. The number of arbs available therefore depends on season (what events are running), day of the week and even time of the day. Most often there are more arbs at the end of the week (Thursday- Sunday) because more matches are played at the weekend. This is the sport that offers the most arbs due to the almost overwhelming amounts of matches being played every week. In England alone, there are 358 teams in the first eight tiers of English football who besides from competing in their regular leagues, also play (if eligible) five different national cups per year. This is a year-round sport that offers a great deal of arbitrage opportunities due to the amount of tournaments played each year. The ATP (men s circuit) and WTA (women s circuit) alone, annually play around 65 tournaments each, as well as the four Grand Slams (also referred to as the Majors ): the French Open, the Australian Open, the US Open and Wimbledon. As there can only be two outcomes of a tennis match (it can never end in a draw), tennis is easy to bet on as it only requires two bookmakers in the arb. As explained previously in this e-book, tennis matches are the most common sport to have different rules on. Please read more about these different rules in our frequently asked questions page here: Also, look what could happen if you mix different tennis rules in an arb: RebelBetting only shows safe tennis arbs between bookmakers that has the same rules.* You also have an option to show mixed rules arbitrages (not recommend if you do not fully understand the risks of it). 24

25 Being one of the four sports in the Major professional sports leagues of North America and Canada, basketball is also a popular sport in Europe and Asia. Consisting of four quarters, a game is played between two teams and the team having the most amount of points at the end of the game wins. The most common difference in rules in basketball is if overtime is included or not. RebelBetting only shows safe basketball arbs between bookmakers that has the same rules.* Hockey consists of two teams playing against each other for three periods of 20 minutes each. Naturally, as it is a winter sport, frequent arbs appear in the winter season, but not summer time (except for the occasional tournament here and there). Arbs are often available in the PuckLine market as well as the Over Under market (for instance OU 5.5 goals). As in basketball, the most common difference in rules in hockey is if overtime and penalties are included or not. RebelBetting only shows safe hockey arbs between bookmakers that has the same rules.* Baseball is a huge sport in North America and Japan and is growing in popularity in Europe as well. It is played between two teams with nine players each. One game consists of nine innings. The team with the most runs wins the game. Bookmakers can have different rules regarding baseball. Some offer listed wagers, where pre-determined pitchers must start the game for the bet to stand. Others offer action wagers, where the bet will stand regardless of which pitchers start the game. It is important that you never mix these rules in an arbitrage, as late pitcher changes occur sometimes (especially late season). RebelBetting only shows safe baseball arbs between bookmakers that has the same rules.* There are often arbs on American Football when the North American season is running. In this sport you can also find a lot of AH arbs, as well as OU arbs and middles. 25

26 You can sometimes find arbs in Rugby League, Rugby Union and Aussie Rules. Not many bookmakers cover this sport, but those who do sometimes have pretty different opinions about the possibility of a certain outcome, which is a recipe for arbs. * (Bookmaker rules might change without our knowledge, and it is of course your responsibility that you know the rules of the specific bookmakers before you bet.) 26

27 In this part, we will discuss the importance of proper bankroll management when arbitrage betting. If you are serious about arbitrage betting, you need to keep track of the bets you place. This must be done to know which bets that are still open, which bookmakers you have placed the bets on, what amounts you have placed and where, and also to make sure that the bookmakers have graded your bets correctly (it has happened several times that bookmakers have graded bets wrongly). Also, by keeping a book of your transactions, you will always know your exact balance of every bookmaker and E-wallet at any time. By taking a look in your arbitrage log book, you will instantaneously see how many bets you currently have open, at which bookmakers the bets are placed and also real-time information about your current balance of your bookmaker and E-wallet accounts. It is very important to know how much funds you have and where you have them, if you need to make deposits and withdrawals in short notice. By keeping a book of your bets, you will also get important statistics about your historical bets. You will see your average arbitrage percentage, your winning rate, what your turnover is at specific bookmakers (for bonus requirement information), and monthly winnings and so on. Also, it can be quite fun to look deeper into your statistics! You could just make your own Excel spreadsheet, but it could be quite tedious and time consuming. We at RebelBetting have made our own spreadsheet and we are happy to share it with you. Before the implementation of a bankroll management system in RebelBetting, this spreadsheet should be able to cover your bookkeeping needs. You can download the RebelBetting ArbBook spreadsheet here (requires Excel 2007 or 2010): Please pay attention to the ReadMe tab in the spreadsheet for important information about the ArbBook! Make it a habit to periodically check that your bookmaker balances in your ArbBook coincide with your actual balances. If they don t match up, it might be an indication that you have logged wrongly or that a bookmaker has wrongfully graded a bet of yours. 27

28 There are a few things you could optimize when opening bookmaker accounts: To avoid any currency exchange fees, you should have all your accounts (bookmakers and E-wallets) in the same currency. The most common currencies are USD, EUR or GBP. You should choose ONE, and stick to that currency for the rest of your arbitrage career. It is a common misunderstanding that you should spread out your funds evenly between every bookmaker you have accounts with. You will definitely use certain bookmakers more often than others. Because of this fact, you will need to have more funds with the regularly used books, and less funds with the books that you only occasionally use. As an example, you will probably use Pinnacle and Betfair the most, and should therefore have most funds there. Always keep some funds in your E-wallet account though (minimum about 10% of you total bankroll), as you will need to balance your bankroll more often when you have limited funds. When (or if) you have a bigger bankroll, balancing your bookmaker accounts will not be a problem, as you will have sufficient funds to keep every bookmaker account balanced. 28

29 An important part of Sports Arbitrage betting is understanding how lay bets work. The difference of a regular bet (also known as a back bet) and a lay bet, is that on a back bet you bet on a team/player to win. If you were to place a lay bet on the same team/player, you bet on that team/player NOT to win. Let's take a football match as an example, and let s say Manchester United is playing Liverpool. If you were to place a regular back bet at Pinnacle on Liverpool, you will win your bet on Pinnacle if Liverpool wins the match. If you place a lay bet at Betfair on Liverpool, you will win your bet on Betfair if Liverpool does NOT win the match. If Manchester United wins or the match ends in a draw, you have won your lay bet. In other words, laying Liverpool is the same thing as backing both Manchester United to win or draw. By combining a lay bet at Betfair with a regular bet on another bookie, you have effectively made a 3-way match to a 2-way match. Even though there are three outcomes of the match itself, you have bet so there only are two outcomes of your bet. If the lay bet odds is smaller than the back odds, you have yourself an arbitrage! The terms associated with lay betting can be quite confusing at first, but once you get the hang of it, it's pretty straight forward. Backer's stake: This is the amount you want to win. Let's say that your backer's stake in the lay bet example above was 100. Because you layed Liverpool, you will win 100 (minus commission, explained below) if Manchester wins or the match ends in a draw. Commission: Exchanges such as Betfair charges a percentage of your winnings. This percentage is by default 5%, but the more you turn over at Betfair, the more discount on the commission you receive. Backer's odds: This is the odds of your lay bet. The higher the backer's odds is, the higher the risk (liability) will be. Liability: The liability of a lay bet is correlated with the stake and odds. A selection where the backer's odds is 6 means that if you lose your bet you will lose 5 (6-1) times your stake. 29

30 Example 1, backer's odds is high You lay 100 at the odds of 6, and your current commission rate is 5% If you win your bet, you win 100*0.95 = 95 If you lose your bet, you lose 100*(6-1) = 500 Example 2, backer's odds is low You lay 100 at the odds of 1.5, and your current commission rate is 5% If you win your bet, you win 100*0.95 = 95 If you lose your bet, you lose 100*(1.5-1) = 50 Matched/Unmatched: As with any exchange, you place your bets at Betfair against other Betfair customers, not against Betfair itself. Therefore, there must always be a backer and a layer for any bets made. If there is a backer for your lay bet, your bet will be matched. Once a bet is matched it cannot be cancelled, other than by Betfair. If your bet has not been matched, or only partially matched, you can either cancel your unmatched bet, leave your bet unmatched (not recommended when Sports Arbitrage betting) or accept the remaining unmatched bet at a worse odds. Betfair has a great lay bet demo video on their site which you should take a look at to familiarize yourself even further with lay betting. They also have a good help section on placing bets at Betfair. 30

31 Often, bookmakers have deposit bonuses. A good way to maximize your bankroll early on in your arbitrage career is to deposit just the right amount (no more) to maximize the bonus at the bookmaker. An example would be that you get a 100% deposit bonus of maximum $100. A deposit of $100 will then maximize your bonus ($100) at that bookmaker, and if you do this with 10 bookmakers, you effectively will have increased your bankroll with $1000. There are basically three types of bonuses out there that you can get just for signing up and depositing some funds to a bookmaker. You ll either get a sign-up bonus or one of two different freebets. A sign-up bonus is pretty straight forward stuff. You get x amount of money into your account, which you can use right away. Some of the key things to know about sign-up bonuses are: They often come with withdrawal restrictions (you might need to roll over the bonus x times before you can make a withdrawal). They are sometimes only offered to customers in specific countries. They sometimes come with other restrictions, for example that you need to bet on odds over 2.00 for the bonus roll over requirements to count. They are straight forward to bet with, as they are in your account together with your regular funds. Read the bonus requirements thoroughly for the specific bookmaker you are depositing to. A free-bet is a bit different compared to a regular bonus. Before you place a bet, you ll have the option to use your regular funds, or the free-bet. If you bet using your free-bet, and your bet wins, you ll only keep the bet winnings (not the free-bet amount itself). This is called a SNR (Stake Not Returned) free-bet. There are also SR (Stake Returned) free-bets, but they are rare. If you for example get a SNR free-bet of 50, and bet the whole amount on a match with the odds 1.50, you will win 75. But the bookmaker will only pay out your winnings ( 25). This makes it tricky to use free-bets within arbitrage betting, but there is a pretty good way of doing it anyway. And the best part about free-bets is that you don t even need to bet on a positive arbitrage to release the funds! 31

32 As described above, the bookmaker that is offering the SNR free-bet will only pay out your winnings. This means that you probably can t bet on a regular arb, because your free-bet amount itself will not be credited back to your account when the match is complete. Consider the following scenario: You are going to bet on a tennis event. Federer to win has odds 1.80 at bookmaker Victor Chandler (where you have the free-bet). Nadal to win has odds 2.45 at bookmaker William Hill. As a regular arb, this would be a +3.8% arb. But as you won t be keeping the free-bet stake at Victor Chandler, the odds is actually 0.80 instead of 1.80 (as your stake will not be refunded to your Victor Chandler account if Federer wins). This means that the arb will be -39.7% instead of +3.8% if you would use the free-bet in this particular arb. You will still make a profit on the bets though (no matter who wins). See the calculations below. If Federer wins, you ll win 40 on Victor Chandler ( 50 x 0.80) and lose 16 on William Hill. Total profit of the free-bet = 24 ( 40-16) If Nadal wins, you ll win on William Hill ( 16 x ) and lose your free-bet on Victor Chandler. Total profit of the free-bet = There are better ways to keep as much as you can of the free-bet. One great way is to bet on for instance the correct score market, and laying the same correct score on Betfair. This is illustrated in the following example: You are betting on a football (soccer) match in the UEFA Europa League between FK Siauliai Wisla Krakow. Back correct score 1-3 at Victor Chandler, odds Lay Correct score 1-3 at Betfair, odds As you can see pretty clearly, this is not a positive arb (as the Betfair lay-odds is higher than the backodds). If this wasn t with a free-bet, the arb would have been -0.53%. As it will be used with a freebet, the arb is -0.85% (with 5% commission at Betfair). This means that you ll be able to keep much more of the free-bet than in the previous example! By betting your 50 free-bet at Victor Chandler, and laying at Betfair (with a liability of ), you will: Profit if the match ends 1-3 ( 50 x ) Or Profit if the match doesn t end 1-3 ( commission ( 2.24 if 5% commission)) By using Betfair s lay-odds and high odds at Victor Chandler, we have now profited 42 of the original 50 free bet! The closer the lay-bet odds are to the back-odds the better. Best is of course if the layodds is lower than the back odds. 32

33 When you have lost your funds at a specific bookmaker you have also lost your bonus amount at that bookie. But because you have won the lost amount (plus your arbitrage winnings) on another bookmaker, you have effectively rolled over your bonus as well. This means that you have earned the bonus amount without actually having to follow any eventual bonus requirements that the bookmaker might have had. In the bookmaker s point of view, you have actually lost you bonus back to them! So, when you have emptied your balance on a bookmaker (except for maybe Pinnacle and Betfair) you move on to another bookmaker that you do not have an account at, and deposit for maximum bonus at that bookmaker. Do these steps over and over to maximize your bankroll early on. Taking full advantage of the deposit bonuses is the best way of increasing your bankroll when starting out there are a lot of bonus money to grab out there! 33

34 Below are some general tips that will help you in your Sports Arbitrage career. As mentioned before, common sense will take you a long way, but here are some hands-on advices that you can think about. This is the most important tip of all. Use common sense! Try to think like a regular sports punter. How would they bet? For instance, think twice about betting on low tier, foreign leagues. Some books might raise an eyebrow or two if you bet on a division 3 basketball league from a foreign country. You should always try to round your stake as best you can. No "regular" sports punter will bet for instance $ on a match, and neither should you. You should even try to bet even 5 s if your total stake is big enough. So instead of betting $237 at a single bookmaker, bet $235 or $240 (or better yet, $200 or $250). Two bookmakers that you DON'T need to round your stakes on though are Pinnacle and Betfair. They don't care how you bet and they will never limit your account. You can even bet decimals with them if you wish. If you see an arb that looks too good to be true it probably is. Before blindly betting on the arb, look at the next best odds from other bookmakers. If you find that one bookmaker is out of line with their odds, think twice about betting on the arb, as the bookmaker with the out-of-line odds may void your bet at a later stage if you decide to bet on it. Take a look at the screen shot below. As you can see, there are four arbs on a match between Brønshøj Fortuna Hjørring that are pretty high. Also, you can see that that SBObet appears in every one of them. When expanding the first arb in the list, you ll see that SBObet is out of line when comparing their odds to other bookmaker s odds. 34