March 2015 Las Vegas Metro Residential Housing Sales

Transcription

1 March 2015 Las Vegas Metro Residential Housing Sales SFR Transactions - Inventory While one data point does not a trend make the increasing amplitude in weekly closings combined with a look at March closings for all three product types makes me think the resale market is truly stabilizing (also see the Reno-Sparks report at the end). The lack of inventory seems problematic but is national in scope so does not seem to be indicative of a local or regional problem. There are any number of systemic reasons for this decline that will probably last for years. Months Supply ,301 MLS Month's Supply SFR - 8 Week Average Weekly Closings Closings (blue) & Under Contract (green) - Right Scale 7,198 7,262 7,330 7,317 7,068 7,186 7,070 6,942 6,789 6,798 6,866 6,840 6,631 6,427 6,489 6,495 6,452 6,181 6,219 6,192 6,093 5,769 5,716 5, ,671 5,639 5,398 5,473 5,516 Weekly Closings 5,537 5,268 5,242 5,267 5,166 4,964 Months Supply (ER,EA,C,T,AU) 4,992 4,916 4,750 4,567 4,381 Total Under Contract 4,431 4, , , , , ,500 Months Supply (ER,EA,T,AU) 6.3 5, ,643 5, , ,010 5, # of Units 2 30-Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Mar

2 Inventory listing trends remain the same as last month: for the week just ended there was a slight decrease in Traditional and REO inventory and Short sale inventory continues its steady decline. So as inventory remains constrained and contracts & closings increase the months of supply peaked at 7.1 the end of February and fell to 3.4 at the end of March. REO/Short Sale/Traditional SFR Listings for Week Ending Clark County Traditional 8, % 06-Apr-2014 Total: 14,027 SFR REO % SFR SS 4, % Traditional 6, % Not Under Contract Total: 7,629 SFR REO % SFR SS % 05-Apr-2015 Total: 13,582 SFR REO % SFR SS 3, % 06-Apr-2014 Total: 6,828 SFR REO % SFR SS % Traditional 9, % Traditional 5, % SFR Closings For the entire metropolitan market: There were 2,645 SFR closings through the MLS in March with the RJ trumpeting the 38.6% increase over February closings. True but as with so many numbers reported on this industry over the last several years - the large percentage increase came from comparison to previous dismal figures as was the case of the 1,908 closings in February. The story to me that GLVAR missed entirely (or was not reported) was the year over year increase in closings was almost 6% and it represented the first YOY increase of any magnitude since May As you will see below there was a similar pattern for both Condominium and Townhouse closings. Home Builder s Research has reported that the increased activity in new home sales started early as in the end of December and 2

3 beginning of January. Thirty percent of March closings were put under contract in January while 53% were sold in February pretty much standard seasonal behavior for the resale market. Days on Market dropped from 47 for February closings to 39 for March. The median price for March closings was $206,000 representing a 5.6% year over year increase now 36 consecutive months of YOY increases. Las Vegas MLS Metro By Average/Median Price - SFR Bars Represents Monthly Closings Average $ Median $ All Median REO $ SFR Closed $260 $240 2,497 2,532 $233,220 $232,469 2,779 2,630 2,599 $240,647 $241,382 $241,637 $252,090 2,528 $241,044 2,327 $238,899 2,371 $245,301 $248,376 $243,052 $248,706 $250,179 2,645 2,172 $220 1,987 1,908 1,765 Thousands $200 $195,000 $193,250 $196,000 $200,000 $200,000 $201,500 $205,000 $200,000 $202,000 $205,000 $200,000 $207,000 $206,000 $180 $160 $170,000 $161,275 $167,830 $153,950 $165,500 $162,000 $170,000 $161,115 $155,000 $157,000 $153,700 $161,000 $164,750 $140 Mar-2014 Apr-2014 May Jun-2014 Jul-2014 Aug-2014 Sep-2014 Oct-2014 Nov-2014 Dec-2014 Jan-2015 Feb-2015 Mar The breakdown for the 2,647 SFR closings in March was 2,190 Traditional (82.7%); 227 Short Sale (8.6%), and 230 REO (8.7%). Median prices for the three categories for January were T: $217,000 (-), S: $165,000 (F) and R: $164,750 (+), respectively. The percentage of cash transactions decreased fairly significantly in March from 29.3% to 24.7% for all SFR transactions. The slack was picked up primarily in Conventional and FHA financing and a slight increase in VA financing Forty-one percent of all the closings were occupied by either an owner or tenant with short sales consistently exhibiting the greatest percentage with occupants 53.7% Average sales price, less incentives (seller assistance) to asking price was 97.7% overall T: 97.4%, S: 99.7%, and R: 98.1%. Slightly less than one-third of all closed transactions reported some form of seller assistance for those March closings. Of the Short sale transactions closing in March 71% reportedly offered some seller assistance. The median dollar amount was about the same for all three transaction types coming in at $3,500 3

4 There were 27 closings with a sales price of $1M or more with the highest price $8,050,000 (The Ridges in Summerlin); eight of the 27 were in Henderson, two in ZIP 89120, one in Boulder City and the rest west of I-15 Las Vegas Metro MLS COE by Term Sold March 2015 Single Family Residential VA 10.1% Auction 0.3% OWC/Other 1.9% Cas h 24.7% FHA 27.4% Conv 35.6% Condominium & Townhome Closings So, as indicated above the good news continues in the Condominium & Townhouse transactions. For March closings were up 22.3% compared to February and UP 8.8% compared to March For the month of February there were 273 closings. There have been 19 consecutive months without a YoY increase in transactions and only two months out of the last 38 where transactions increased YoY. The last significant transaction YOY increase occurred in July 2013 and was 9% but that was followed by the 19 months of YOY decreases so our joy here could be fleeting indeed. Due to the financing issues facing condominiums I am less optimistic than about the SFR market but at least for March the percentage of financed transactions increased at the expense of cash transactions. Of the 334 closings: 268 (80.2%) were Traditional; 43 (12.9%) were REO; and 23 (6.9%) were Short Sales. 4

5 Las Vegas MLS Metro Transactions & Price Condominiums: Excluding High Rise Median All COE Median REO Price Monthly Sales $ $85 $80 $84, $79, $80, $81,000 $78,950 $86, $84, $80,000 $86, $82, $83,000 $85,000 $81, $85, $86, Thousands $75 $70 $72,750 $71,500 $66,000 $70,151 $70,000 $72, $67,000 $68,000 $67,000 $69, $65 $64,000 $60 Mar-2014 Apr-2014 May-2014 Jun-2014 Jul-2014 Aug-2014 Sep-2014 Oct-2014 Nov-2014 Dec-2014 Jan-2015 Feb-2015 Mar Closings in the townhome category bumped up a whopping 41.4% from 162 to 229 during March and represents an 15.7% increase YoY. The numbers are much smaller than SFR so the percentages reflect greater volatility but coupled with the CON & SFR data presents an overall positive picture in my mind at least. If the increase in transactions continues it might lend some credence to my hypothesis that TWN sales should increase as the price of SFR properties continues to rise since TWN product is much easier to finance than CON properties and offers many physical similarities (e.g. attached garages, nobody above/below, private back yard). As wannabe homeowners get priced out of the SFR market they should turn to a townhouse as a reasonable alternative. Of the 229 March closings: 180 (78.6%) were Traditional; 28 (12.2%) were REO; and 21 (9.2%) were Short Sales. Prices of those that closed declined $1,000 (0.69%) for Traditional transactions; increased to $120,000 (22%) for Short Sales; and decreased to $80,750 (5%) for REO transactions. 5

6 Cash transactions not surprisingly constitute the bulk of both condominium but not townhouse transactions: Las Vegas Metro COE by Term Sold March 2015 MLS Closings Condominiums Excluding High Rise Conv 16.2% Va 1.5% FHA 1.5% Owc/Other 0.9% Cash 79.9% Las Vegas Metro COE by Term Sold March 2015 MLS Closings Townhouses All Transactions Auction 0.9% Va 4.8% Other 2.2% FHA/Homepth 22.3% Cash 38.4% Conv 31.4% 6

7 Frank Nason, President Voice Office or Toll-free ; TextMe PO Box Las Vegas, Nevada Why do our numbers differ from those released by the Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors or other sources since our data comes from the same source? We don t count lease option transactions as sales; we separate single family residential (nearly all detached) from condominium and townhouse transactions (as they are two distinct product types in terms of legal ownership and often physical structure, duh!), we correct data entry errors by cross-checking assessor data, etc. 7

8 SFR Transactions Inventory & Sales March 2015 Reno Metro Residential Housing Sales Prices continued to increase while the number of transactions exploded in monthly increases and year-over-year transactions finally increased in both northern & southern metropolitan markets. Number of homes for sale: 1. Total Listed in MLS 1,756 representing a 8% INCREASE from February typically listings start to increase after the holidays and pick up steam after the Super Bowl 2. Not under contract 821 or 47% of all current listings are not under contract and available for purchase representing a modest increase from February 43% NOT under contract 3. For the month of March (ending) there were 6.5 months of inventory based upon the previous 4-month average closings Median price of homes currently for sale: 1. Not under contract: $415,000 with a range of $78,800 to $16,400,000 similar range as last month but somewhat higher median price. 2. The median price of homes currently under contract is $269,975 (slightly higher than February) with a range of $40,000 to $2,495,000 and of those under contract they were on the market an average of 111 days. Sales prices ranged from a low of $72,000 to a high of $2,210,000 with 7 properties closing at a value of $1 Million or more for the month of March. 8

9 Reno Metropolitan Area SFR Sales Total Sold Avg DoM Median Price $264,600 $260,000 $261,995 $265,000 $270,000 $250,000 $250,000 $250,850 $252,000 $240, $240, $230, $190, $179,200 $169, January 2014 Feb-2014 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan-2015 Feb-2015 Mar-2015 Other characteristics of homes that closed escrow during March: Median square feet 1,855 ranging from 679 to 7,282 square feet $ median price per square foot ranging from $66.49 to $ % of the transactions were CASH transactions with 18.6% using FHA financing; VA 8.2%; Conventional financing accounted for the majority with 51.1% of all transactions Average Sale Price to List Price was 99% for March ranging from 78.6% to 125% Median 0.18 acre homesite (7,841 square feet) ranging from 0.01 to 40 acres Approximately 65% of all homes were occupied by either the owner or a tenant; 30 were NEW under construction 9

10 Of the homes closed during the month of March 86.2% were Traditional sales; slightly more than 8% were REO (bank owned) and 5.6% were Short Sale (including Court Approval). There were differences in several other key statistics between the distressed properties (Short Sales & REO) and the Traditional sales These differences can vary widely from month-to-month due to the limited closings in the Short Sale & REO transactions where a single sale can skew the statistics dramatically. Additionally, the size of the properties can vary widely and, typically, smaller homes sell at a higher price per square foot which is another way of comparing the various types of transactions. Why do Residential Resources, Inc s statistics vary from those published by the Reno-Sparks Association of Realtors? We correct data entry errors when we cross check sales prices, lot sizes, etc. however the main reason that we can discover is that the statistical function that is incorporated into the MLS platform is somehow flawed. RRI downloads the monthly data into a spreadsheet and uses statistical functions to determine minimum, maximum, average & median numerical values. 10