Evaluation of Google and Apple

Transcription

1 Xing Chen & Yuanyuan Pan FIN Special Topics: Financial Modeling Prof. Michael D. Boldin Final Project Evaluation of Google and Apple Overview of project and modeling objectives The objective of our project is to decide Apple or Google, which one is a better buy. Based on the financial statements, we discovered that both Google and Apple experienced tremendous evolvement in recent years, especially from 2010 to In order to analyze whether their stock prices are undervalued or overvalued, we constructed the Pro Forma for both companies. First, we computed WACC for both Google and Apple. Second, we forecasted the Income Statement and Balance Sheet for three years. Third, we constructed the free cash flow based on the projected items from the previous step, and calculated the enterprise value by using WACC as the discount rate. Finally, we obtained the implied value per share and compared it to the current market price. Explanation of financial modeling techniques applied Google WACC---Weighted average cost of capital Since Google does not declare dividends, we decided to use CAPM model to calculate the cost of equity. The results of cost of equity and cost of debt for Google are shown in the Table-1 and Table-2 below.

2 Table-1 GOOG: Cost of Equity r E Based on CAPM Expected market return, E(r M ) 8% Given From Yahoo 1.23 GOOG beta 1.09 Beta(last 8 years) 1.08 GOOG tax rate, T c 20.50% From GOOG financial statement (last 4 years) 0.95 Risk free rate, r f 1% Given Average Beta 1.09 GOOG cost of equit, r E,GOOG Classic CAPM 8.60% Tax-adjuested CAPM 8.62% Table-2 Computing the cost of Debt for GOOG Sep Sep Cash and Equivalents $15,160 $8,730 Short-term Borrowings $4,904 $4,273 Long-Term Debt $2,996 $2,986 Net Interest Expense $151 $190 Net Debt $7,900 $7,259 Net interest cost 1.00% According to these results, we calculated the average estimated WACC based on the classic CAPM and tax-adjusted CAPM model. Finally, we got the weighted average cost of capital is 8.35%. We used this rate as the discount rate to compute the enterprise value later. Pro Forma---Forecast Income Statement and Balance Sheet for three years. We collected the previous three years historical financial statement, from Sep, 2010 to Sep, 2012 to forecast the following three years financial statements until Sep, In order to construct the reasonable Pro Forma, one of the most important forecasting assumptions is the sales growth rate. The average historical growth rate of the previous three years of Google is almost 50% which is unsustainable in the future. Therefore, based on the forecast from Bloomberg for the following four years, we computed the sales growth rate is 13.7%. (Please see Excel Spreadsheet for more details.) Free Cash Flow

3 Based on the forecast of the Pro Forma, we constructed the Free Cash Flow chart illustrated in Table-3 and calculated the average free cash flow rate, which equaled to 12.91%. Table-3 Free Cash Flow (FCF) Sep Sep Sep Profit after tax 4, , ,384.5 Add back depreciation 1, , ,635.1 Change in net working capital Increase in operating current assets (740.9) (1,127.5) (1,282.0) Add increase in operating current liabilities 2, , ,589.5 Subtract capital expenditures (3,221.1) (3,248.9) (3,725.6) Subetract increase in other assets Add back after-tax interest (16.7) (16.7) (16.7) FCF 4, , ,584.9 FCF Growth rate 12.25% 13.56% Average FCF rate 12.91% Evaluating Google According to the projected financial statement and WACC, we can evaluate the company. However, because of the rapid growth of Google, the free cash flow growth rate is higher than the discount rate. We cannot use the perpetuity model to calculate the terminal value directly. Otherwise, we will get the negative value. According to Bloomberg, the estimated growth rate of Google will decrease to 5.42% in 2016; we assumed that the cash flow of Google would continue to grow at 12.91% for three years. And then, the growth rate will drop to 9% for another three years until In 2019, we assumed that the growth rate is down to 5.8%. At that time, we applied the perpetuity model into estimating the terminal value, and summed up all discount values of free cash flow with terminal value together to get the enterprise value. Finally, we got the implied value per share was $812.9 per share which is very close to its market price at September. The results are shown in Table-4. Therefore, we think that Google is fairly valued

4 Table-4 Valuing the firm Weighted average cost of capital 8.35% Period 3 FCF based 2013 Forecast 4, Year Stage1 Stage 2 Perpetual Long-term free cash flow growth rate 12.91% 12.91% 12.91% 9.00% 9.00% 9.00% 5.80% PV of FCF 4, , , , , Terminal value 209, Sum 239, Sep Discounted value 229,764.9 Add back initial cash 44,624.0 Firm value 274,388.9 Subtract total debt value, Sep ,268.0 Implied equity value 267,120.9 Number of shares outstanding, Sep Implied value per share Market price per share, Sep GOOG over or under-valued? Ok WACC---Weighted average cost of capital Apple Apple keeps an incredibly low level of inventory (only 0.5% of its annual revenue) as well as operating costs (about 0.8% of annual revenue) and never uses debt to finance. Its cost of equity constituted the only source of its cost of capital. This remove the constraints that may be imposed by creditors and thus empower the company to pursuit more creative outcome. The cost of equity for Apple is shown in Table-5. Table-5 WACC based on Tax-adjusted CAPM and Average cost of equity method Cost of equity, re 10.37% Cost of debt, rd 2.87% Equity value, E 550, Net Debt 0.00 Tax rate, Tc 25.20% WACC 10.37%

5 Pro Forma---Forecast Income Statement and Balance Sheet for three years. To enhance comparison, we used their financial data from Sep to Sep and chose the Q Tech ETF as the standard to compare the stock price of these two companies against the performance of the industry. Please refer to the spreadsheet for detailed information. Free Cash Flow & Evaluating Apple For analyzing purpose, we combined the average growth rate calculated from historical data, including the 8-year average and the last year quarterly average, and the analysts estimate from Bloomberg to reach a reasonable 11.3% annual growth rate. And we adopted this growth rate for the following three year and changed to 5% for another three years. By utilizing a perpetual 3% growth rate in the long run, we calculated the terminal value at 843,445.4million dollars. At the end of the day, we obtain an estimated value per share at dollars, which indicates that its stock price is undervalued. The outcomes are shown in Table-6&7. Table-6 Free Cash Flow (FCF) Sep Sep Sep Profit after tax 44, , ,509.4 Add back depreciation 2, , ,492.7 Change in net working capital Increase in operating current assets (1,822.0) (1,732.9) (1,928.7) Add increase in operating current liabilities 4, , ,196.3 Subtract capital expenditures (1,290.6) (4,527.5) (5,272.2) Subetract increase in other assets Add back after-tax interest FCF 48, , ,997.5 Average FCF rate 9.94%

6 Table-7 Valuing the firm Weighted average cost of capital 10.37% Period 3 FCF based 2013 Forecast 48,019.5 Year Stage-1 growth rate Stage-2 growth rate Perpetual Long-term free cash flow growth rate 9.94% 9.94% 9.94% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 3.00% 47, , , , , ,876.0 Terminal value 571,483.7 Sum 843,445.4 Sep Discounted value 802,854.7 Add back initial cash 29,129.0 Firm value 831,983.7 Subtract total debt value, Sep ,312.0 Implied equity value 812,671.7 Number of shares outstanding, Sep Implied value per share Market price per share, Sep Apple over or under-valued? undervalued Results and conclusion Many analysts try hard to predict the future of Apple and most of them remain positive about its performance, even though the stock price fell to the 550 level in December this year. Based on the result of our financial model, Apple s stock price is undervalued, with an estimated stock price at per share, contrast with its current 550 per share. And the stock price that truly reflects the value of the company has yet been reached in the company s history so far. However, the stock price for Google falls into a reasonable range based on its corporate value, and this is convinced by its stable performance over years. When relating the stock performance from these two companies to the market movement, we discover a similar up-and-down shape between Apple and the market, while a drastic different one between Google and the market. The financial reports have limited information for us to unveil the reason behind this discrepancy. But if we assume the macro economy will

7 gradually recover in the coming years, Apple will be more profitable for investors for its accordance with the market movement. So in all, we recommend a strong buy for Apple. What I learned In the process of completing this project, several issues lightened us up. The first and most important one is the use of historical data. Since Google and Apple are both high growth rate companies, their past performances are not reliable factors to predict their future. In this case, subjective judgment is needed and reference to other professional analysts' opinion is helpful for us to set a reasonable estimated growth rate in order to conduct further evaluation. Moreover, we use the Q Tech ETF, which mimic the performance of Nasdaq 100 Technology Sector Index, as the standard to compare the stock performance of these two companies over years. This comparison backed our recommendation for Apple for its accordance with the overall market movement, as well as outperforming the market for a couple of times. Last but not the least, we successfully conducted a thorough analysis, from determining the cost of capital to comparing the implied value per share with the current market price. This cohesive process put scattered knowledge parts together and enhanced our analyzing skills as well as our understanding about corporate finance. At the end of the day, it made us feel more confident about financial modeling. References 1. Capital IQ. < 2. Bloomberg. < 3. Yahoo. Finance. <