Healthcare Challenges 2025

Transcription

1 Healthcare Challenges 2025 ESC Cardiovascular Roundtable April 25-26, 2012, Paris, France Mike Ward, Editor-in-Chief, Scrip Intelligence

2 Healthcare challenges 2025 What sort of industry can we expect in 2025? What sort of healthcare? How will scientific communication be? How will stakeholder interaction evolve in the coming years?

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12 Crystal ball gazing...pharma 2025 What sort of industry can we expect in 2025? What sort of healthcare? How will scientific communication be? How will stakeholder interaction evolve in the coming years?

13 Current global life science trends Healthcare sector shows resilience Dow Jones World Healthcare Index up 8% YoY Dow Jones World Index is down 5% YoY Healthcare spending solid despite uncertainty Favourable demographic drivers Outstanding cash generation

14 US Managing healthcare spend Pharma market value stagnating Continued legal challenges to Obamacare Medicare budget cuts ($365bn in 10yrs) FDA oversight still cause for concern NIH spending still increasing

15 Japan Slowly transforming? Still world s second largest market Dominated by local players Japanese companies expanding globally Slower rate of price cutting Streamlining of regulatory processes

16 EU Eurocrisis set to drag on & on Eurozone crisis to dominate headlines Value-based pricing Medical devices Biosimilars and generics

17 Emerging markets: opportunity knocks? Organic growth outpacing, US, EU & Japan Branded generics offer premium prices India presents competition challenges China behind 2020 universal coverage goal Arab Spring largely shrugged off

18 Safe bets...pharma 2025 Increasing focus on health outcomes Healthcare becomes more patient-centric Regulatory focus on existing as well as new drugs R&D productivity/profit margins remain a challenge Industry centre of gravity shifts South & East

19 Riskier bets...pharma 2025 Consumers will be better informed wanting feedback Mobile personal healthcare records the norm Whole genome sequencing at birth Networked genome data Emergence of healthcare industry focusing on wellness NO HEALTH OUTCOME NO HEALTHCARE INCOME

20 How pharma can move forward Embrace change as inevitable Develop a vision for several potential future scenarios Understand the inherent capabilities a company possesses Identify strategic bets that position company as a winner Adapt business model to support strategic direction

21 Recent pharma investment focus Biologics Comsumer healthcare/otc Generics Orphans Devices Services Biosimilars Diagnostics Nutrition & wellness All major players SNY, GSK, NVS, JNJ, BAY SNY, PFE, GSK, NVS SNY, GSK, PFE PFE, ABT ABT, ROG PFE ROG ABT Source: Scrip Intelligence

22 Strategic recipes for success Pharma + Diagnostics Matching right patient & medicine Enabling personalised approach to patient care Pharma + Consumer Holistic approach to wellness NVS & EU payors remotely monitoring hypertension for compliance Pharma + More focused therapeutic areas for quick hits NVS acquisition of Alcon and buildout of ophthalmology business

23 Advancing health outcomes Healthcare costs are becoming unsustainable Chronic diseases epidemic unhealthy lifestyles, aging Cost containment will require behavioural changes Health outcomes will move to the fore Healthcare will become more patient-centric

24 Out with the old, in with the new Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic, Arthur C Clarke, Sci Fi author and futurologist Disconnected healthcare systems of past will soon be a relic New norm will be highly accessible, interactive info system

25 Healthcare everywhere Shifting from doctor s office/hospital to where patient is Personal health technology revolution Med device consumerisation/consumer device medicalisation Smartphone apps, sensors and real-time monitors New roles and business models; patient centricity

26 Behavioural change business Life expectancy doubled in past 200 years We may be first generation not to outlive our parents All in healthcare will be in behavioural change business Will need balance of paternalism & individual responsibility Life science sector will need to look to other industries

27 From me-too, me-better to me-best New treatments face a tall order in many cases because they are compared to existing drugs which have proven to be effective. It gets harder over time to show that medical therapies are an improvement over what is already available Dr Shari Ling, Deputy CMO, US CMS For many disease classes we have effective, cheap generics. In that sense, the industry is a victim of its past success Professor Patricia Danzon, Wharton School, Univ of Penn.

28 Facing the value challenge Customers are unwilling to pay for products that are not sufficiently better than existing ones to justify the price premium charged. It will not be enough to be the 12 th or 13 th version of hypertensive drugs Dr Christopher-Paul Milne, Tufts University Germany changed rules one year to prove value UK hopes to enact some form of VBP by 2014

29 Differing perceptions of value Now Then Pharma firms Improved efficacy Patient outcome Bioservices firms Improved efficacy Patient outcome Generic firms Volume used Volume used Health insurers Improved QoL Improved QoL Government payer Improved QoL Improved QoL Regulatory agency Improved QoL Improved QoL Source: Economist Intelligence Unit

30 Immediate challenges Understanding what market wants and needs Clinical trials directive Price Transparency directive Counterfeit medicines directive Innovative Medicines Initiative Trust and reputation

31 Who provides trusted health info? Doctor 88% Pharmacist 81% Academic/expert 72% Disease patient 65% Company expert 62% NGO representative 45% Regulator/Govt official 31% Journalist 29% Company employee 24% Company CEO 22% Source: Edelman Trust Barometer 2012

32 Who actually adds value? Stakeholder Industry Patients Doctors/Healthcare professionals 50% 46% Scientists/Medical researchers 31% 23% Biopharmaceutical companies 11% 5% Patient advocacy groups 4% 12% Health insurance companies 2% 4% Regulator/Government officials 3% 6% Source: Economist Intelligence Unit

33 Adapting R&D to demonstrate value Collaborate more closely with patient groups/med experts Leaders 61% versus Industry average 38% Collaborate more with companies with specialist expertise Leaders 42% versus Industry average 36% Focus on diseases of unmet medical need Leaders 24% versus Industry average 31% Make no significant change to R&D strategy to show value Leaders 6% versus Industry average 19% Source: Economist Intelligence Unit

34 Aligning for impact Success will require stakeholders aligning around patient Goes beyond individual company efforts to change business model Need to focus broad stakeholder alliance on limited space Common agenda, shared metrics, mutually reinforcing activities, continuous communication, a backbone support organisation Establishment of disease networks Collective impact alliances in which providers, academic medical centres, CROs, payers and life science companies form enduring relationships with patients to seek cures for certain diseases

35 Greater transparency & open access Regulators & patients want more clinical data transparency Positive and negative clinical data should be given same priority Drive for more open access scientific publication Funding bodies such as NIH and Wellcome Trust demand free-toaccess publication of research creates new publishing challenge Public private partnerships will become more common Following positive reaction in industry to Innovative Medicines Initiative, companies are likely to be more willing to reach out to other stakeholders in the healthcare ecosystem

36 Healthcare challenges 2025 Thank you Any Questions? To get a copy of these slides please me at: mike.ward@informa.com or hand me a business card Follow me on twitter