Russian Real Estate Investment Market

Transcription

1 Russian Real Estate Investment Market

2 Russian real estate investment volumes Investment volume dynamics, USD mn* 8,000 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 7,000F 6,000 5,059 4,799 4,000 4,005 3,917 3,243 2, Investment into RE is gaining momentum, with the total volume of Q investment in Russia up 111% YoY, to USD2.2 bn. Commercial real estate investments increased 133% YoY in Q2 2011, to USD2.1 bn. We expect a further increase in real estate investment volumes in 2011, with the annual volume reaching USD7.0 bn, of which the commercial real estate component will account for about USD6.4 bn. * Investment deals, excluding share acquisitions of less than 30% of assets for own occupation, land acquisitions, JVs, direct residential sales to end-users. 2

3 Russian real estate investment market snapshot H H Growth, YoY Real estate (RE) investment volume, USD mn* 1,975 4, % Commercial RE investment volume, USD mn 1,290 3, % Moscow share 57% 69% St. Petersburg share 30% 24% Yields, Q Moscow St. Petersburg Office % % Retail % % Warehouse % % * Investment deals, excluding share acquisitions of less than 30% of assets for own occupation, land acquisitions, JVs. 3

4 Prime yield dynamics in Moscow 15% 14% 13% 12% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% Q Q Q Warehouse Shopping centre Office 9.75% 8.5% 8.0% 12.5% 11.0% Q Q Q Q Q Q Due to higher investor interest in shopping centres, sector yields compressed 50 BPS to 9% in Q2. Moscow office and warehouse yields were unchanged, ending the quarter at 9% and 11% respectively. 12.0% 11.5% 14.5% Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q % 9% 9% Q4 2011F 4

5 Prime yields, Q Office yields Moscow 9.0% St. Petersburg 10.0% Budapest 7.5% Warsaw 6.3% Prague 6.5% Madrid 5.5% Brussels 6.0% Paris 4.8% London 4.0% Berlin 5.0% Moscow St. Petersburg Budapest Warsaw Prague Madrid Brussels Paris London Berlin Shopping centre yields 9.0% 10.0% 7.0% 6.0% 6.5% 6.3% 5.0% 4.8% 5.3% 5.1% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% Warehouse yields 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% Moscow St. Petersburg Budapest Warsaw Prague Madrid Brussels Paris London Berlin 9.0% 8.0% 8.0% 8.0% 7.0% 7.0% 6.3% 7.4% 11.0% 13.5% Prime assets in Russia still offer significant premium relative to other European markets. 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 5

6 Investment volume breakdown by sector Mixed 3.3% Residential 5.3% Hotel 8.5% Industrial 9.3% Office 40.2% Retail 13.3% Mixed 5.8% 2009 Residential Hotel 2.0% 1.5% Industrial 0.2% Retail 33.4% Office 77.2% 2010 H Residential 15.4% Hotel 2.6% Industrial 11.3% Office 47.9% Residential 2.8% Hotel 15.2% Mixed 3.3% Industrial 5.2% Office 30.9% Mix ed 13.6% Retail 9.2% Retail 42.6% 6

7 Real estate investments by type Investment breakdown 23.0% Investors are still mostly focused on prime standing assets, nevertheless with the increased 80% availability of financing, more investments will be 60% directed to development projects. 40% 77.0% 100% 5.2% 94.8% 57.2% 16.1% 83.9% 21.8% 78.2% 16.0% 20.0% 84.0% 80.0% 20% 42.8% Investment by deal size 0% Q Q Q Q Q Q H % 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 24% 21% 43% 56% 64% 40% 44% 29% 21% 23% 21% 20% 12% 14% 11% 11% 11% 13% 7% 3% 3% 4% 3% 2% H < >300 Standing Under development In H deal sizes were larger, with those exceeding USD300 mn accounting for 56% vs. 43% in

8 Office investment, H Office investment volumes, USD mn 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, ,392 2,503 2,299 1,147 1,215 1, H Office investment breakdown by city St.Petersburg Regions 3% 5% 100% 80% Office investment breakdown by purpose 10.3% 22.7% 19.2% 30.2% 60% 40% 70.3% 69.8% 63.6% 78.8% Moscow 92% 20% 0% 19.4% 13.7% 2.0% H Development Investment Owner occupied In H investor interest was mainly focused on high quality assets in Moscow. 8

9 Retail investment, H Retail investment volumes, USD mn 2, ,503 1,639 1,362 1, H Retail investment breakdown by city St. Petersburg 55.3% 100% Retail investment breakdown by type 10.9% 16.7% Irkutsk 2.4% 80% 60% 60.1% 55.8% 39.6% Moscow 36.1% Kaluga 2.9% Volgograd 2.9% Other 0.4% 40% 20% 0% 89.1% 83.3% 60.4% 39.9% 44.2% H Standing Under development Retail investment volumes increased significantly in H to USD1,706 mn vs.usd440 mn in In H investors interest to standing retail schemes increased to 83.3%, compared with 60.4% in

10 Regional real estate investment market, H Regional investment volumes*, USD mn H Investment breakdown by region, USD mn Regional investment breakdown by sector Irkutsk 1.0% St. Petersburg 24.5% Kaluga 1.3% Volgograd 1.2% Sochi 1.1% Novgorod 0.6% Other 1.3% Office 22.7% Hotel 13.4% Moscow 69.0% Residential 7.8% Retail 56.1% Investor attention still focused on the less risky and more mature Moscow and St. Petersburg markets in H * All cities excluding Moscow and St.Petersburg. 10

11 Real estate investors by origin Finland 2.1% Germany 2.6% Austria 2.8% Singapore 3.2% USA 4.1% Denmark 2.0% 2007* Norway 1.7% Other 3.5% Russia 27.3% Norw ay 4% Austria 3% UAE 4% France 3% Italy 2% 2008 Other 5% Russia 32% UK 8.2% Confidential 9.0% 2009 China 6.0% Other 1.7% Ireland 5.1% Canada 12.8% China 7% Global 2% Global 15.6% 2010 Other 5% Confidential 17.2% Confidential 18% Kazakhstan 14% Global 2% Finland 4% Finland 11% H Other 2% UK 14% Germany 2% 2011 Russia 75.1% Confidential 5% Global Russia 57% USA UK Asian Tigers Nordics Russia Russia 81% 21% Confidential * Shares are based on investment volumes. 2% 11

12 Real estate investors by type Listed Dev elopers/ Prop. Co. 24.1% Priv ate 0.4% 2007* Unlisted Dev elopers/ Hotel Ow ner/operator Prop. Co. 4.1% Listed Dev elopers/ Prop. 8.2% Co. 30.7% Unknow n Corporate 17.0% Corporate 16.1% 9.8% Priv ate 5.2% Gov ernment 3.1% Unlisted Dev elopers/ Prop. Co. 20.1% Unknow n 0.8% Unlisted 19.2% Private 9.8% Unlisted Developers/ Prop. Co. 7.4% Unknown 3.2% Institution 3.3% Unlisted Unlisted Dev elopers/ 17.5% Institution Prop. Co. 14.3% 19.2% Unknow n Unlisted Institution 2.4% 28.3% 23.2% 2010 H Government 19.3% Listed Developers/ Prop. Co. 4.4% Hotel Owner/Operator 0.8% Corporate 7.9% Priv ate 10.9% Gov ernment 0.5% Hotel Owner/Operator 0.6% Corporate 5.3% Unlisted Dev elopers/ Prop. Co. 38.1% Corporate 33.0% Unlisted 5.0% * Shares are based on investment volumes. Institution 42.2% Unknow n 1.6% Unlisted 1.8% Institution 41.2% 12

13 Major recent transactions Office Sadco, Moscow Alfa Arbat Center, Moscow Stake of White Square, Moscow Stake of White Gardens, Moscow Investment deal Investment deal Investment deal Investment deal Class: B+ Completed: Q Vendor: Mosinjstroi Construction Purchaser: Aliv-M Total area: 12,180 sq m Class: A Completed: Q Vendor: TNK-BP Purchaser: Promsvyaznedvizhimost Total area: 47,225 sq m Class: A Completed: Q Vendor: Coalco Development Total area: 69,218 sq m Class: A Completed: Q Vendor: Coalco Development Total area: 88,000 sq m Retail 78.64% M5 Mall, Ryazan Macromir portfolio, St. Petersburg SunMart, Kaluga Kaluzhskiy, Moscow Investment deal Corporate Sale Investment deal Investment deal Completed: Q Vendor: ECM Real Estate Investments Purchaser: PSJ New, N.V. Volume: EUR18.7 mn Completed: Q Vendor: Private investor Purchaser: Fort Group Total area: 306,749 sq m Completed: Q Vendor: London & Regional Properties Purchaser: Torgovy Kvartal Total area: 46,000 sq m Completed: Q Vendor: Mos City Group Purchaser: BIN Group Total area: 29,000 sq m 13

14 Conclusions Investment into real estate is gaining momentum, with H investment volumes doubled compared to H Investments were much diversified in H Retail segment accounted for 43% of H investment volume, office 31%, and hotel 15%. The deal sizes were larger, with those exceeding USD300 mn accounting for 56% in H vs. 43% in The emergence of debt and declining costs of financing support investment activity. Investor attention remained focused on the less risky and more mature Moscow and St. Petersburg markets. Investors are still mostly focused on prime standing assets, nevertheless with the increased availability of financing, more investments will be directed to development projects. 14

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