DIFI-Report. 4 th Quarter 2015 Assessment of the Real Estate Financing Market in Germany

Transcription

1 DIFI-Report 4 th Quarter 2015 Assessment of the Real Estate Financing Market in Germany The German Real Estate Finance Index (DIFI) reflects survey participants assessments of the current situation (the last six months) and expectations (the coming six months) for the German real estate financing market. It is produced quarterly and is calculated on the basis of an average of the results for the office, retail, logistics and residential real estate market segments. These figures reflect the percentage of positive and negative responses received from survey participants relating to the current situation in, and financing expectations for, the German real estate market. DIFI is produced and published in cooperation with JLL and the Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung (Centre for European Economic Research, ZEW). Gains in the real estate finance market DIFI up after two falls in succession Special questions: control of risk weightings and expected interest rates

2 DIFI-Report Assessment of the Real Estate Financing Market in Germany 4 th Quarter Gains in the real estate finance market German Real Estate Finance Index (DIFI) Average assessment of the current situation in and expectations for the four real estate market segments (Office, Retail, Logistics, Residential). Source: JLL and ZEW Financing conditions improving In the 4 th quarter of 2015, the German Real Estate Finance Index (DIFI) rose by 6.9 points to 13.1 points. This is the first gain since the first quarter of 2015 and is due to improvements both in the assessment of the current situation (the past six months) and in expectations (the next six months). The respective aggregates rose by 8.2 points to 24.9 points and 5.5 points to 1.2 points, and these improvements must be considered in conjunction with developments in the previous quarter in which the assessment of the current situation and expectations had fallen significantly. After the resulting slightly negative expectations in the previous quarter, the first since the 1 st quarter of 2013, expectations in the 4 th quarter are now at around the zero mark. This means that a relative majority of respondents assume that financing conditions will remain stable over the next six months. As in the previous quarter, the overall economic situation is overshadowed by uncertainty: a cooling off in economic activity in the emerging nations, the Volkswagen crisis, the refugee situation, fear of terrorism (the survey took place before the attacks in Paris on 13 th November 2015) there appears to be a never-ending list of factors. At the same time, it looks likely that the European Central Bank s policy of low interest rates will continue in the foreseeable future, which will benefit the real estate finance market. Gains across nearly all real estate segments The upturn in the DIFI is due to improvements in the assessment of the current situation and expectations across nearly all real estate segments. In the assessments of current financing conditions over the past six months, index aggregates have risen by between 5.2 and 13.1 points, and expectations relating to financing conditions over the next six months have risen by between 2.7 and 11.9 points. There was a decrease in expectations only in the case of logistic property, which fell slightly by 0.3 points. These gains should not hide the fact that the majority of the survey participants assume there will be no significant change in financing

3 DIFI-Report Assessment of the Real Estate Financing Market in Germany 4 th Quarter conditions. In terms of the current financing situation across all real estate segments, this view is shared by 72.8% of the experts (+10.8 points), and by 83.1% of the experts (+1.7 points) in the case of financing expectations. It appears that most respondents assume that the commercial real estate finance market will reach something of a plateau. next six months have fallen by more than 7 points. The average estimated index aggregates based on the assessment of current situation and expectations for the respective refinancing instruments have fallen across the board. Development of the refinancing market Assessment of the real estate financing market by real estate market segment Average assessment of the current situation and expectations by refinancing instrument. Source: JLL and ZEW Average assessment of the current situation and expectations by defined real estate market segment. Source: JLL and ZEW Further deterioration in assessments of the refinancing situation As in the previous quarter, there was a deterioration in the majority of assessments from the experts surveyed relating to developments in the refinancing markets. The overall picture remains very divergent across the various refinancing instruments, as well as in terms of the assessments of both the past and next six months. Whilst, for example, assessments of the current situation relating to capital deposits, unsecured bonds and real estate stock markets have each fallen by in excess of 7 points, the respective expectations are almost unchanged. The most significant development relates to refinancing using mortgage backed securities, where both the assessment of the current situation over the last six months and expectations over the Special questions: control of risk weightings and expected interest rates In the current quarter, survey participants were asked for their opinions on a possible regulatory control of minimum equity capital requirements, and the impact on expected interest rates over the next two years. The special question relating to the minimum equity capital requirements is based on whether the supervisory authorities should proactively control loan risk weightings for the purposes of micro or macro prudential control. Financing institutions regulated by Basel II may determine their minimum equity capital requirements, either according to the standardised credit risk approach (KS) or on the basis of the internal ratings-based approach (IRB). In particular, institutions working on the IRB basis may be impacted by the risk weighting approach, as the banking supervision is afforded more

4 DIFI-Report Assessment of the Real Estate Financing Market in Germany 4 th Quarter discretionary leeway. The views of the survey participants are rather varied with regard to the overall applicability of risk assessment regulation: 37% of respondents find such regulation appropriate, 43% inappropriate, and 20% are undecided. In terms of the development of refinancing rates, the financing experts anticipate that there will be a moderate rise over the next two years. By the end of 2017, they expect a median 3-month Euribor of between 0.1% and 0.3% and a 10-year Euro swap rate of between 1.3% and 1.65%. Thus, according to the respondents estimates, there is likely to be a slight upward adjustment, at least over the longer-term. Range of expected interest rates for 3-month Euribor and Euro swaps Do you think the control of risk weightings is an appropriate instrument? Stated upper and lower limits shown as median values. Source: JLL and ZEW Source: JLL and ZEW

5 DIFI-Report Assessment of the Real Estate Financing Market in Germany 4 th Quarter DIFI-Report: Results of the response categories, Q improved Δ Q3 unchanged Δ Q3 deteriorated Δ Q3 aggregate Δ Q3 German Real Estate Finance Index 17.6 (+0.3) 78.0 (+6.3) 4.6 (-6.5) 13.1 (+6.9) Financing situation improved Δ Q3 unchanged Δ Q3 deteriorated Δ Q3 aggregate Δ Q3 Office 29.5 (+/-0.0) 68.2 (+6.8) 2.3 (-6.8) 27.2 (+6.8) Retail 19.5 (-6.7) 80.5 (+18.6) 0.0 (-11.9) 19.5 (+5.2) Logistics 30.3 (+2.8) 67.4 (+2.4) 2.3 (-5.2) 28.0 (+8.0) Residential 25.0 (-1.2) 75.0 (+15.5) 0.0 (-14.3) 25.0 (+13.1) All real estate segments 26.1 (-1.3) 72.8 (+10.8) 1.2 (-9.5) 24.9 (+8.2) Financing expectations improve Δ Q3 remain unchanged Δ Q3 deteriorate Δ Q3 aggregate Δ Q3 Office 4.8 (+2.4) 83.3 (-2.1) 11.9 (-0.3) -7.1 (+2.7) Retail 5.0 (-2.7) 90.0 (+13.1) 5.0 (-10.4) 0.0 (+7.7) Logistics 12.2 (+4.1) 78.0 (-8.5) 9.8 (+4.4) 2.4 (-0.3) Residential 14.2 (+3.9) 81.0 (+4.1) 4.8 (-8.0) 9.4 (+11.9) All real estate segments 9.1 (+2.0) 83.1 (+1.7) 7.9 (-3.6) 1.2 (+5.5) Refinance market situation improved Δ Q3 unchanged Δ Q3 deteriorated Δ Q3 aggregate Δ Q3 Capital deposits 4.7 (-0.3) 74.4 (-8.1) 20.9 (+8.4) (-8.7) Mortgage bonds 15.5 (-2.7) 75.6 (+9.7) 8.9 (-7.0) 6.6 (+4.3) Unsecured bonds 20.0 (-1.5) 55.0 (-4.5) 25.0 (+6.0) -5.0 (-7.5) Mortgage backed securities 24.2 (-13.6) 69.7 (+18.3) 6.1 (-4.7) 18.1 (-8.9) Real estate stock markets 41.6 (-1.6) 52.8 (-4.0) 5.6 (+5.6) 36.0 (-7.2) Refinance market expectations improve Δ Q3 remain unchanged Δ Q3 deteriorate Δ Q3 aggregate Δ Q3 Capital deposits 10.0 (+7.5) 80.0 (-14.9) 10.0 (+7.4) 0.0 (+0.1) Mortgage bonds 9.3 (+2.2) 83.7 (-9.2) 7.0 (+7.0) 2.3 (-4.8) Unsecured bonds 12.8 (-2.2) 79.5 (+4.5) 7.7 (-2.3) 5.1 (+0.1) Mortgage backed securities 15.2 (-10.5) 81.8 (+13.2) 3.0 (-2.7) 12.2 (-7.8) Real estate stock markets 11.4 (+2.8) 74.3 (-5.7) 14.3 (+2.9) -2.9 (-0.1) Spreads compared to German government bonds increase Δ Q3 remain unchanged Δ Q3 decrease Δ Q3 aggregate Δ Q3 Mortgage bonds 13.3 (+6.1) 68.9 (-4.9) 17.8 (-1.2) -4.5 (+7.3) Unsecured bank bonds 34.9 (+3.0) 55.8 (+1.3) 9.3 (-4.3) 25.6 (+7.3) Segment development increase Δ Q3 remain unchanged Δ Q3 decrease Δ Q3 aggregate Δ Q3 Syndication business (volume) 57.1 (+/-0.0) 42.9 (+2.4) 0.0 (-2.4) 57.1 (+2.4) Underwriting (volume) 41.4 (-6.1) 53.7 (+3.7) 4.9 (+2.4) 36.5 (-8.5) Comment: The German Real Estate Finance Index survey was carried out between and and involved 48 experts. These experts were asked for their assessments of the market situation (preceding six months) and market expectations (coming six months). The results shown are the percentages of the response categories and the changes in per cent compared to the previous quarter (Δ previous quarter). The aggregates are calculated from the difference between the positive and negative response categories (such as improved and deteriorated ). DIFI is calculated as an unweighted average from the aggregates of the financing situation and financing expectations for all use types. Figures have been rounded to one decimal place. Source: JLL und ZEW

6 Contacts JLL Contact ZEW Markus Kreuter Team Leader Debt Advisory Germany Frankfurt tel +49 (0) Internet: jll.de Dr. Oliver Lerbs Department International Finance and Financial Management tel +49 (0) fax +49 (0) Internet: Helge Scheunemann Head of Research Germany Hamburg tel +49 (0) Internet: jll.de Copyright ZENTRUM FÜR EUROPÄISCHE WIRTSCHAFTSFORSCHUNG GmbH and JONES LANG LASALLE GmbH, No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent of Jones Lang LaSalle GmbH and Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung GmbH. It is based on material that we believe to be reliable. Whilst every effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot offer any warranty that it contains no factual errors. We would like to be told of any such errors in order to correct them.