Advising Clients on Asian Energy Cost Trends Services for, and some trends affecting, large energy users with facilities in Asia May 2013

Transcription

1 Advising Clients on Asian Energy Cost Trends Services for, and some trends affecting, large energy users with facilities in Asia May 2013

2 Regional Focus, Global Access We support our Asia Pacific clients across a broad spectrum of regulatory and commercial strategy, market research and analysis, opportunity assessment and valuation and economic regulation and market development. In the energy management area, we partner with Pace Global, A Siemens Business, to provide support to global clients with exposure to energy costs and risks in the Asia Pacific region. Contact: Mike Thomas mthomas@lantaugroup.com Contact: Kyle Smith kyle.v.smith@siemens.com The Lantau Group

3 About this presentation This presentation is a slightly modified version of a recent webinar on Asian Energy Cost Trends for large end users with facilities in several Asian countries Our services for end users include Projections of energy costs for planning and budgeting Market updates / regulatory radar Invoice translation / validation / tracking Tariff optimisation Special projects support Energy contract negotiation advisory 2

4 The process of forecasting power/gas tariffs in Asia Collate data and information on fuels, power and policy issues Analyze data and information (supply/demand fundamentals, materials costs, investment requirements) Review regulatory drivers and possible tariff adjustment (including seller financial performance) Develop projections and potential mitigation options Consider options for mitigation/response Fundamental cost drivers of power and gas tariffs Government and regulatory policy radar Approach and value added Fuel market dynamics Supply and demand fundamentals Government policies and market design Financial performance of incumbents Opportunity identification / negotiations support Risk factors and longer-term budgeting support We help Asia region clients monitor their energy costs, prepare longer-term budgets, and identify or improve energy cost reduction strategies 3 The Lantau Group

5 A review of recent Asian energy market cost drivers 1 2 Key factors and observations Deep dives China Singapore Philippines 3 Summary 4 The Lantau Group

6 When it is all said and done, the US has enjoyed a pretty good run of electricity prices to larger customers US benefits from: Lower fuel costs 10 Lower energy taxes Cost-reflective pricing 5 Electricity prices for industry comparing 2001, 2006 and 2011 US /kwh Subsidized Subsidized Subsidized Excluding post Fukushima Impact /2001 % increase Relative to USA in 2011 US Korea Canada New Zealand Source: IEA Energy Prices and Taxes Taiwan France China UK Germany Japan Singapore 39% 29% 14% 43% 29% 125% 28% 125% 131% -8% 87% - 3% 6% 6% 19% 75% 75% 83% 126% 158% 158% Asia Observations Most subsidies directed at smaller customers at the expense of larger customers (cross-subsidy) Most government-owned utilities (e.g, Korea, Malaysia, China, Taiwan, Thailand, Indonesia) have poor financial performance problematic when fuel prices or investment needs increase Pressures to improve sector reliability performance increases regulatory risk and capital expenditure requirements (Korea, China) 5 The Lantau Group

7 Residential customer tariffs are strongly politicised in Asia, putting upward pressure on commercial and industrial tariffs Ratio of residential tariff compared to commercial electricity tariff More Cost Reflective Beijing Kuala Lumpur Taipei Shanghai Hanoi Jakarta Madrid Bangkok Hong Kong Sydney Singapore Berlin Paris Lisbon London New York Helsinki Brussels Tokyo Seoul Amsterdam Rome Wellington Asia cities Rest of World Residential tariffs Less than Small Commercial tariffs Residential tariffs Greater than Small Commercial tariffs Source: TLG analysis Politicized tariffs (cross-subsidies) create pressures either larger customers pay more or the power utility earns less 6 The Lantau Group

8 Asian power tariffs do not always adjust with changes in cost underlying financial performance is a key driver of policy driven tariffs Operating performance of some key Asian utilities (2011) Profit before Tax of some key Asian utilities US Billion Operating Revenue Operating expenses Operating income US Billion Kansai Kepco Meralco Huaneng Intl Taipower TNB Kansai Kepco Meralco Huaneng Intl Taipower TNB Source: Annual reports We track the reported performance of each major utility and correlate our findings with changes in underlying costs (fuel, non-fuel, capex) 7 The Lantau Group

9 Tariff adjustments often follow financial performance which tracks fuel prices and policy shifts on the cost of sustaining subsidies 2011 China, Malaysia Sep 2012, Tepco, Japan (Tokyo) May 2013, Kansai, Japan (Kansai) June 2012 Phase 1 Taipower, Taiwan Jan 2013, Kepco, S. Korea PLN, Indonesia April 2013, PLN, Indonesia Oct 2013 Phase 2 Taipower, Taiwan?? 8 The Lantau Group

10 Price in 2012 real term, USD/GJ USD to Japanese yen USD to Chinese RMB Global fuel and exchange rate factors have swung rapidly, at times Historical coal and crude prices Historical exchange rate LRMC of coal-fired plants is lower than that of oilindexed natural gas CCGT plants LRMC of coal-fired plants is lower than that of oilindexed natural gas CCGT plants Crude USD to Chinese RMB (RHS) Coal USD to Japanese yen (LHS) Note: Crude price: :Arab Light Crude prices ; : Brent price (historical Brent price only starts from May 1987) Coal price: : average coal prices in the US from EIA; : Newcastle FOB price Changes in fundamental cost drivers hit each country very differently due to differences in technology, fuel mix, and exposure to imports 9 The Lantau Group

11 Fuel mix differences are stark yet most countries have increasing exposure to the very same regional fuel prices (due to increased reliance on imports) Generation fuel mix across countries in Asia in % 90% China Domestic and imported coal (at market prices) Ultra large-scale hydro Growing nuclear and natural gas 80% 70% Japan Imported coal, oil and LNG Post-Fukushima uncertainty re: nuclear power Longer-term shift to renewables? 60% 50% 40% Korea Philippines Imported coal and LNG Nuclear power Imported coal and oil Local oil-linked natural gas supplies Plans afoot to introduce LNG 30% 20% Singapore Switching to imported LNG 10% Taiwan Imported coal and LNG 0% China Japan Korea Philippines Singapore Taiwan Malaysia Hydro Other Renewables Nuclear Coal Natural Gas Oil Other Source: IEA, Japan: FEPC, Philippines DOE Malaysia Domestic gas supplies running out switching more to imported coal and LNG Growing exposure to market-priced (imported) coal, oil and natural gas (LNG) 10 The Lantau Group

12 Longer term trend fuel market signals have been relatively consistent perhaps surprisingly given the obvious volatility over the past decade US$/barrel Brent forward price on 24 April End 2009 forward price End 2008 forward prices??? 20 0 Source: ICE 11 The Lantau Group

13 Asia has been left behind in the gas revolution Asia LNG prices are much higher than US gas prices USD/MMBtu 25 Gaps among regional gas prices have widened Asia LNG (oil indexed) Asia LNG price assuming 14.5 slope NBP Henry Hub Large gap of gas pricing difference, providing the opportunities for arbitration, but limited by politics and governmental policies 0 Source: ICE and EIA 12 The Lantau Group

14 US coal exports, million metric tonne In the short-term, shale gas has caused an increase in US coal exports to Asia In the longer-term, exports might help meet Asia s growing gas demand Coal exports from US have more than tripled Source: EIA China s slower growth and increased US coal exports have moderated Asian coal prices China s imports (270 million tonnes in 2012) are still only about 7 percent of China s domestic production Many (>120 Mtpa) LNG export projects planned in the US and Canada -- probably just a drop in Asia s large bucket of growing demand Alaska Source: TLG analysis Canada US Existing terminals with proposed liquefaction Greenfield proposed liquefaction Only Sabine Pass by Cheniere (16 Mtpa) received all approvals for export to non-fta countries US resource nationalism supported by domestic gas users Environmental opposition could block some terminals Why would prices be discounted to Asia? 13 The Lantau Group

15 But Asia s shale gas is not being developed very fast doubtful North American exports alone can assuage the region s potential demand growth China, India and Indonesia have huge technically recoverable reserves of shale gas India 63 tcf US shale gas reserve 482 tcf China 1,275 tcf Indonesia 574 tcf But They do not have the ability to develop them quickly (10 years off?) Incomplete regulatory regime Limited technical know-how Infrastructural constraints (e.g., pipeline access) Environmental issues (e.g., lack of water, impacts on local residence and forced migration) Mis-alignment of incentives and Local content restriction and limits on use of foreign experts in some countries Source: IEA and TLG analysis Without a whole lot more supply hitting the Asian market, the US gas price revolution is not easily replicated 14 The Lantau Group

16 Regional summary Longer term fuel costs coming down a bit, but not the sort of benefit that the US has been enjoying Coal markets have been relatively soft LNG markets have still been relatively tight Broad interest in reducing subsidies and cross-subsidies, but limited political will to do so. Beneficiaries would probably be the larger industrial and commercial customers over time Many markets are regulated, but some, like Korea, Philippines, Singapore have marketbased aspects. Philippines and Singapore are introducing some significant changes that may affect contracting strategies Asian power and gas prices reflect a complex mix of fundamental cost drivers and policy/regulatory risk factors, complicating projections, budgeting, and tariff optimisation 15 The Lantau Group

17 A review of recent Asian energy market cost drivers 1 2 Key factors and observations Deep dives China Singapore Philippines 3 Summary 16 The Lantau Group

18 We could spend days talking about China (!) China s coal/unconventional gases/wind/solar energy bases and China s future energy warehouses Transmission and transport constraints Water constraints and fragile ecosystems Improper infrastructures Economic growth faster than national average Heilongjiang Jilin Xinjiang Inner Mongolia Liaoning Gansu Beijing Hebei Tibet Qinghai China s hydropower bases and major West-China Power Exporting Sources but increasing seasonal and temporal power shortages Sichuan Yunnan Ningxia Shanxi Shandong Shaanxi Henan Jiangsu Anhui Hubei Shanghai Chongqing Zhejiang Hunan Jiangxi Guizhou Fujian Taiwan China s most developed and populated regions and energy/power demand centers Must import from other regions Lack of energy resources Environmental issues are extreme Well developed infrastructure Guangxi Guangdong Hainan 17 The Lantau Group

19 We focus on a selected number of puzzle pieces Involvement in setting on-grid price NDRC (1200 people) Involvement in setting transmission and distribution tariffs End-user power tariff (regulated) = On-grid price + Transmission & distribution price + taxes & surcharges FUEL NON- FUEL Gencos >2 million people Grid Companies On the generation side, ongrid prices vary by province, sector, technology and even by plants. Direct purchase of electricity for approved large industrial users Provincial pricing bureaus UHV GRID NON- UHV GRID CAPEX Residential prices are usually set below cost to support social stability, but this does not apply to the industrial sector. Industrial electricity pricing in China is closer to international averages Industrial prices Residential prices Subsidies directed at domestic population and mitigating inflation richer provinces and wealthier market segments pay more 18 The Lantau Group

20 China s on-grid (wholesale) power costs vary widely by location China on-grid coal plant tariffs after the December 2011 hike, Yuan/MWh > Policy and underlying cost factors favour concentrating tariff increases in wealthier provinces Broad desire to support development in inner provinces to balance China s growth < Source: News and TLG analysis Higher wholesale power costs in wealthier provinces 19 The Lantau Group

21 Transmission Project Cost (RMB/km) The world s most expensive grid yet to be completed Rapid expansion of ultra-high voltage DC Systems UHV project costs are much more expensive than the others State Grid also has even more ambitious plans to expand the UHV AC network to tap remote resources for eastern load centres kV 220kV 330kV 500kV 750kV 1000kV Grid development is a longer-term watching brief it is at least three years behind original plans, and has implications for the timing and extent of natural gas (higher cost) in the eastern provinces 20 The Lantau Group

22 USD/MMBtu Environmental pressures will push up gas usage but higher costs will have to be recovered.(this is a longer term factor) China natural gas supply sources Comparative supply costs of gas into Shanghai 100% 90% 80% 70% 13% 8% LNG imports International pipeline imports Domestic production 18% 23% % 8 50% 6 40% 30% 20% % 0% Domestic CBM Shale conventio nal gas Turkmen pipeline gas Other pipeline gas Oil-index LNG (slope: 13.5) Canadian LNG US Gulf LNG Source: TLG analysis 21 The Lantau Group

23 Huaneng fuel cost (RMB/MWh) Huaneng financing cost (RMB/MWh) China Summary Fuel costs have risen but are now easing, but non-fuel costs are still rising Increasing environmental control cost China has more than 817 GWs of thermal generation that fail to meet China s National Air Emissions Standards. Investment of US$ 31 billion is required with an on-going increase in annual operational costs of US$ 10 billion Fuel Cost Source: Huaneng Power International annual reports Financing Cost Rising renewable energy surcharge cost China is just starting to pay extra to increase renewable energy, but the total amount of power purchased remains very low compared to thermal and hydro generation Other costs are rising as well (Labor, equipment and material cost) 55,000 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20, Maintenance Cost (RMB/MW/Year) 22 The Lantau Group

24 A review of recent Asian energy market cost drivers 1 2 Key factors and observations Deep dives China Singapore Philippines 3 Summary 23 The Lantau Group

25 Market design of the NEMS National Electricity market of Singapore (NEMS) (2003+) Regulatory Framework Wholesale market Electricity Act EMA Market Rules Generation Companies Market Codes NEMS started operating in January 2003 NEMS is a real-time spot market for energy, regulation and three classes of reserves. The price outcomes are co-optimization between energy, reserve and regulation Retail Market Energy flows PSO Retail Companies Contestable Customers EMC Default Supplier (SPS) Dispatch information PowerGrid Direct Market Participants Non-contestable Customers Financial flows NEMS is ex ante pricing designed; it uses locational marginal (nodal) prices at 33 injection nodes and 350 off-take nodes Generators receive nodal spot price and customers pay Uniform Singapore Electricity Price (USEP) The NEMS is soon to undergo a significant transformation with the introduction of LNG and the addition of new CCGT capacity 24 The Lantau Group

26 LNG development in Singapore has been a decade-long process and will have significant impact in the Singapore power market with new LNG-fired CCGTs PNG supply disruption and partial blackout Singapore commits to import LNG EMA appoints PowerGas as LNG terminal developer EMA takes over LNG terminal Gencos commit to LNG contracts Terminal forecast to begin operation EMA launches LNG terminal feasibility study Gas Act amended Gas market formed Terminal breaks ground Senoko 860 MW Keppel 840 MW Tuas 406 MW GMR 800 MW Sembcorp 400 MW EMA limits PNG imports BG selected as LNG Aggregator EMA announces LNG Vesting CCGTs with new LNG contracts come online 25 The Lantau Group

27 Capacity and load, MW CCGT capacity in Singapore will grow much faster relative to peak load in the near term 14,000 The rapid expansion of the committed LNG-fired CCGT capacity in a short period of time will continue to put downward pressure on Singapore s wholesale power price 12,000 10,000 Other Capacity Peak Load + 30% RM 8,000 Peak Load 6,000 4,000 CCGT Capacity 2,000 0 Source: EMA and TLG analysis 26 The Lantau Group

28 Three key drivers will force major changes in the Singapore power price levels Potential supply glut New CCGT capacity, about 4 GW from , will displace steam unit dispatch in virtually all hours of the year New CCGT capacity from new players will erode dominant gencos ability to exercise market power Relief of gas constraints The introduction of LNG in April 2013 will relieve PNG constraints that elevated bids and prices in 2011 and 2012 Future oil prices High sulfur fuel oil (HSFO) price drives the current underlying fuel costs for power generation as CCGTs use pipeline natural gas (PNG) that is indexed to HSFO, and the steam units use fuel oil Brent price will be another driver as the upcoming LNG prices are linked to Brent Future Brent and fuel oil prices are expected to fall slightly in the coming years 27 The Lantau Group

29 We project falling wholesale prices due to relief of gas-constraints post LNG introduction and increased competition from new entry? Source: TLG analysis (redacted) from TLG in-house power dispatched model CEMOS with strategic bidding features 28 The Lantau Group

30 A review of recent Asian energy market cost drivers 1 2 Key factors and observations Deep dives China Singapore Philippines 3 Summary 29 The Lantau Group

31 The Philippine Wholesale Electricity Spot Market (WESM) remains volatile and event-driven, one of the reasons why the level of contracting has increased Average monthly WESM spot settlement price* Peso/kWh Gas curtailments and low hydro Plant outages and coal limitations Transformer breakdown and San Jose substation congestion Plant outages Low hydro Plant forced maintenance outages and HVDC link maintenance Gas curtailments and plant outages Mix of contracting vs. spot in WESM Percent 39TWh TWh TWh 85 45TWh 86 Luzon + Visayas 53TWh TWh 92 Spot transactions Bilateral contracts Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan MERALCO spot (TWh) MERALCO % spot of total purchases % % % % % % Note: * Buying price (with 100% surplus) Source: PEMC; MERALCO; TLG analysis 30 The Lantau Group

32 Short-term supply-demand events have masked the links between energy prices and fuel costs, but they are reasonably aligned in the long-term Energy and fuel price trends Index (Aug-07 = 1.0) Meralco Generation Cost Sta. Rita Gas Plant Cost Newcastle Coal Price (PHP) Quezon Coal Plant Cost WESM Spot Price Brent Oil Price (PHP) Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Note: Meralco, Sta. Rita and Quezon costs shown for month purchased, not billing month Source: Meralco; World Bank; BSP; PEMC; TLG analysis 31

33 Twelve years after the EPIRA reforms, Meralco has finally been weaned off its transition contracts with state-owned NPC, but its reliance on gas continues Power purchased by Meralco TWh New PSAs with Calaca Masinloc, Pagbilao, Sual, and Ilijan Other* WESM Ilijan San Lorenzo PhP/kWh (Q1 2013) Gas PhP/kWh (Q1 2013) Total Sta. Rita 5.08 Sual Pagbilao NPC regular** Masinloc Calaca QPPL Coal 4.34 Note: * Duracom (until Jul-06), Republic Cement (until Dec-05), Philpodeco, MMPC and Bacavalley (from Mar-2011), quantity estimated in 2013; ** Does not include NPC for Special Programs (CPP and Ecozone) Source: Meralco (ERC case no CF/generation charge breakdown); TLG analysis 32 The Lantau Group

34 Energy costs are passed directly through to consumers month-by-month, so tariffs respond quickly to changes in fuel and currency markets Meralco Large customer 34.5kV tariff* & Newcastle Coal Price Index PhP/kWh USD/MT Taxes & other charges Metering Supply Distribution Transmission Generation Newcastle Coal (right-hand axis) Key drivers VAT rate & subsidy charges Quinquennial regulated charges Quinquennial regulated charges (and ancillary services costs) Short-term: Market events International fuel cost indices (e.g., Newcastle Coal) & PhP:USD exchange rate Long-term: WESM supply-demand balance May 2012 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 2013 Feb Mar Apr 0 Note: * Assumes (438MWh pm consumption, i.e., 80% load factor at 750kW); Large customer tariff applies for kW peak demand Source: Meralco; TLG analysis 33

35 Challenges in the Philippines power market create uncertainties in the future power tariff direction Regulation Issues with New Build Retail Competition Uncertainties The energy regulator (ERC) appears to be under-resourced, struggling to interpret a complex market and under pressure to reduce electricity prices for consumers. The ERC implements a cost plus regulatory model that is inconsistent with the market and even more inconsistent with retail competition. Delays on approving contracts and frequent refusals to allow costs to pass through create very high levels of uncertainty for new build causing failure of bidding processes and financing problems for some players. Small retailers have no spare cash to either fund prudential arrangements (so cannot join the market) nor create credit support for contracts (and thus underwrite new build). Worse, there are no incentives for mergers or cost savings. Many think that Meralco represents the only credit-worthy counterparty to underpin new build but it currently operates only in Luzon and appears to be very highly contracted given demand growth expectations. Other counterparties are seen to have credit risks that can cause project financing issues unless other forms of support can be found. Although potentially the most economic option, coal may be harder to finance than gas or renewables as the World Bank and ADB refuse to help out. Retail Competition & Open Access (RCOA) has been planned for many years but has only recently been declared, with commercial transactions for the largest customers planned to start in June A delay from December 2011 to July 2013 appears to be the last but only time will tell how well it is implemented in practice The systems for customer switching appear unfinished; practical operation may be compromised Impending open access means that few utilities want to sign long term contracts but without these financing necessary new build is challenging 34 The Lantau Group

36 A review of recent Asian energy market cost drivers 1 2 Key factors and observations Deep dives China Singapore Philippines 3 Summary 35 The Lantau Group

37 Summary Summary of the trends Most Asian countries are increasingly facing the very same fuel cost trends Imported coal Imported LNG Therefore: their power production costs are a function of their fuel mix exposure Environmental factors, while not formal in many countries, are driving up China s costs in the longer-term due to NOx control costs and a desired shift to natural gas Poor incumbent financial performance has been a key predictor of politicized tariff changes Options going forward With rising cost pressures (except Singapore) and more complex cost drivers Tariff offerings are likely to increase Cross-subsidies will become more politicized, possibly requiring more active industry lobbying Demand response and energy efficiency investments are likely to become more valuable Regulatory and policy developments pertaining to subsidies and industry reform are wild-cards An increasing range of options and risks are emerging in markets like Philippines and Singapore (competitive power markets) 36 The Lantau Group

38 For more information on our services for end-users. Power Utilities Energy Contact Insight Rigour Mike Thomas Liutong Zhang Xinmin Hu Neil Semple James Doig Xiao Yue Value By phone (office) Why we are called The Lantau Group Lantau Peak, on Lantau Island in Hong Kong, is also known as Chinese Phoenix Mountain, aptly reflecting the importance of reinventing the energy sector to meet the tough new challenges of rising costs, environmental sustainability, energy security, technology, competition and globalisation. By mail Tower 1, Metroplaza 223 Hing Fong Road, Kwai Fong, Hong Kong Online 37 The Lantau Group