Guidelines for Designing Disaster Risk Assessment Projects. GLOBAL RISK IDENTIFICATION PROGRAMME Better Risk Information for Sound Decision Making

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1 GLOBAL RISK IDENTIFICATION PROGRAMME Better Risk Information for Sound Decision Making Guidelines for Designing Disaster Risk Assessment Projects Methodology and Tools Empowered lives. Resilient nations.

2 Copyright 2010 Global Risk Identification Programme (GRIP) All rights reserved We encourage the free use of the contents of this report with appropriate and full citation. Acknowledgements: The development of these guidelines was led by Jianping Yan with valuable inputs from current and former members of GRIP, especially Carlos Villacis, Avani Dixit and Veronica Grasso. We would also like to thank for generous contributions by other people that participated in the development process. Disclaimer: GRIP is hosted by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). The information and opinions expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of UNDP. This publication is avaliable from: Global Risk Identification Programme (GRIP) Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery (BCPR) United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) 11-13, chemin des Anémones, Châtelaine, CH-1219, Geneva, Switzerland

3 Better Risk Information for Sound Decision Making Guidelines for Designing Disaster Risk Assessment Projects March 2010

4 Acronyms and Abbreviations BCPR CD CRA DA DRM DRM/R DRR DRRRT GIS GRIP NDO NRA NRIS PAC RI SIERA TAC UNDP URA Bureau for Crises Prevention and Recovery Capacity Development City Risk Assessment Disaster Analysis Disaster Risk Management Disaster Risk Management/Reduction Disaster Risk Reduction Disaster Risk Reduction and Recovery Team Geographic Information System Global Risk Identification Programme National Disaster Observatory National Risk Assessment National Risk Information System Policy Advisory Committee Risk Informer Systematic Inventory Evaluation Risk Assessment Technical Advisory Committee United Nations Development Programme Urban Risk Assessment 4 GRIP GUIDELINES FOR DESIGNING DISASTER RISK ASSESSMENT PROJECTS

5 List of Figures Figures Figure 1: Organigram for Implement NRA 12 Figure 2: A summary of GRIP s Knowledge Products and Services 15 Acronyms and Abbreviations GRIP GUIDELINES FOR DESIGNING DISASTER RISK ASSESSMENT PROJECTS 5

6 Table of Contents Accronyms and Abbreviations List of Figures 1. Introduction 7 2. Scope and Context 8 3. Implication on DRR 9 4. Target Groups Partners and Stakeholders Implementation Strategies Typical outputs Indicative Activities Specific M&E Considerations Useful tools and resources 20 6 GRIP GUIDELINES FOR DESIGNING DISASTER RISK ASSESSMENT PROJECTS

7 1. Introduction This document, serving as a practical tool and resource, is designed to guide the country office on how to design projects or programmes for national risk assessment (NRA). GRIP GUIDELINES FOR DESIGNING DISASTER RISK ASSESSMENT PROJECTS 7

8 2.Scope and Context GRIP aims to promote sustainable development by reducing the impact of natural hazards in high-risk areas. Its specific objectives are to improve the quality of risk information and understanding of disaster risks and to increase its use in decision making processes. With the mission of providing better risk information for sound decision making, GRIP facilitates the generation of evidence-based risk information and promotes its application to improve the quality of policies, regulations and investments at all levels. At national level, GRIP supports countries at high risk to reduce the risks they are facing to their acceptable levels, and thus protect its development gains, by promoting effective Disaster Risk Management/Reduction (DRM/R) based on risk assessment a long-term, locally supported and implemented process. The current levels of the risks a country is facing are the results of decades or centuries of unplanned growth and an almost complete absence of proper risk considerations in decision making. Therefore, DRM/R cannot be achieved with short-term, isolated actions. In line with the required long-term processes that UNDP would like to promote, GRIP focuses its practices to support the countries to build the capacities and necessary conditions to carry out risk assessment at different levels on their own, which involve the following main aspects: stand the problem and set up realistic, measurable goals, such as reducing mortality or expected economic losses by 50% in the next 10 years; (or delineation of one if there is none) based on the newly-generated information and understanding of risks. This plan should include a clear implementation strategy that defines priorities, roles, policies and regulations, monitoring and evaluation mechanisms, timelines, among other things: gal, Institutional, financial frameworks) to make it possible the implementation of the National DRM/R Strategy. This should be done through the close engagement of all relevant stakeholders in both the risk identification and the revision of the DRM Master Plan; building to actively engage the various sectors of the society in the implementation of the DRM Strategy; cluded in the Master Plan for the identified highrisk areas of the country to initiate a long-term implementation process of the National DRM Master Plan; egy to see what is working and what is not and make the necessary corrections. Specifically, the scope and elements of GRIP practices in the countries include: vulnerabilities, disaster-prone areas, and recovery capacities; lines: to set up measurable goals and prepare evidence-based DRR strategies; measure progress (or lack of it) and evaluate and correct strategies; conduct risk assessment at national and local levels, on their own. 8 GRIP GUIDELINES FOR DESIGNING DISASTER RISK ASSESSMENT PROJECTS

9 3. Implications on DRR The assessment and understanding of potential losses is the basis for risk management. It allows for the determination of the acceptable level of risk - defined as the level of losses that is acceptable without destroying lives, national economy or personal finances. Once the acceptable level of risk is determined, the capacity (legal, financial, institutional, and political) to reduce the risk above the acceptable level can be assessed. Risk prevention and reduction measures such as policy formulation, land-use plans, and disaster preparedness should be taken to counter existing risks. Mechanisms, such as insurance, can be implemented to transfer non-reducible risk. Risk assessment is therefore central to the implementation of risk reduction strategies. Periodic evaluation of potential losses (risk) can provide an explicit indication of progress (or lack of it) in risk reduction. Risk assessment therefore is not a one-time effort but a continuous process, crucial for every stage of the risk management process to understand the risk, its causes and possible solutions; to monitor the effectiveness of risk reduction activities and their actual impact; and to evaluate periodically the overall strategies and make the necessary adjustments. Risk assessment can also play a crucial role in early and long-term recovery. Estimation and planning of emergency shelter after a major disaster can be an example of risk assessment application in early recovery. The conditions of exposure and vulnerability that led to the disaster in the first place can be avoided during reconstruction phase through proper analysis of risks and implementation of risk reduction activities. GRIP GUIDELINES FOR DESIGNING DISASTER RISK ASSESSMENT PROJECTS 9

10 4. Target Group NRA is mainly targeted to the following audience: local governments); projects (United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), United Nations (UN) or other agencies staff). 10 GRIP GUIDELINES FOR DESIGNING DISASTER RISK ASSESSMENT PROJECTS

11 5. Partners and Stakeholders The development and implementation of a NRA project or programme requires a full engagement of all the stakeholders in the country and extensive collaboration and partnership. The following are typical partners in NRA programmes/ projects (Figure 1). 1. National Coordination Team It is composed of a programme coordinator from the government or the national agency in charge of disaster risk management and technical coordinators from a prestigious national technical institution, at a minimum. It is in charge of overall project implementation. 4. Implementing Partners They are the agencies and institutions that keep and/or provide information needed for the national risk assessment and the establishment of the National Risk Information System. Besides providing basic data, they also play a key role in the review and validation of the results, the calibration of methodologies, and the application and presentation of the results. 2. Multi-sectoral Technical Groups Technical advisory committee (TAC) and policy advisory committee (PAC). TAC provides technical advice on risk assessment and its applications and revises the project for technical accuracy. PAC provides overall guidance and advice on long-term project planning, project priorities, visibility to the project and ownership promotion, functioning as a programme steering committee as well. In general, TAC is composed of a task force of universities, research institutes, and professional associations, whereas the members of PAC include representatives from relevant ministries, local authorities, civil society, and the private sector. 3. Working Groups It is composed of a group of disaster risk management experts, hazard specialists, structural engineers, economists, social scientists, and information analysts. It is responsible for the implementation of all project activities. To ensure the sustainability of National Risk Assessment, it is highly recommended that the risk assessment team is built with a long-term vision. GRIP GUIDELINES FOR DESIGNING DISASTER RISK ASSESSMENT PROJECTS 11

12 Figure 1: Organigram for Implement NRA 12 GRIP GUIDELINES FOR DESIGNING DISASTER RISK ASSESSMENT PROJECTS

13 6. Implementation Strategies To initiate the required long-term processes that UNDP would like to promote, GRIP suggests the countries to start with a comprehensive 4-5 year phase in which the countries build the capacities and necessary conditions to carry out the long-term process on their own, as a first step of action. In the implementation of these activities, local capacity building and institutional strengthening must be a priority. Hopefully, by the end of these activities (in about 4-5 years), there will be the necessary awareness, experience, capacity, community support and political commitment for the local institutions to continue the implementation of the National DRM/R Strategy with increasingly less assistance from UNDP and other international organizations. For most countries to implement DRM/R programmes, it is suggested to start with, at least, the following 5 activities: ation of risk assessment (SIERA) to create baselines for national DRM activities; (NDO) to learn from the past; ment (NRA) to create a comprehensive national disaster risk profile; cities at high risk in the country; and Reduction Action Plans for the main urban areas (cities) based on the risk assessment results. To assist the countries with these activities, the GRIP has developed a comprehensive solution package for national risk identification and assessment, which consists of 5 risk assessment services (Figure 2): Assessments (SIERA) to support the country to understand its current situation, issues and challenges, strengths and weaknesses, gaps and external needs, etc, in the context of national risk assessment, aiming to create clearly-defined baselines for formulating realistic and reasonable implementation plans for national risk assessments; country to create a comprehensive national risk profile for formulating evidence-based national strategy for DRR; port the establishment of a sustainable institution, which includes a nation-wide network of disaster observers, for the systematic collection, compilation, and interpretation of historic disaster losses, providing sound inputs to better disaster preparedness and response that can be incorporated into the national DRR strategy; ban or municipal administrations to generate a sound evidence of risks for their urban planning and contingency planning; the country to develop a sustainable mechanism for risk assessment by enhancing the capacities of national institutes based on a learning-by-doing approach. All the above-listed 5 services can be implemented either entirely or partially, depending on the capacity level of the countries and their special needs for risk information. For the time being, the solution package has been already applied in several countries. For example, in the GRIP Demonstration Countries (i.e. Mozambique, Ecuador, and Sri Lanka), the whole package is being implemented, whereas Armenia, funded GRIP GUIDELINES FOR DESIGNING DISASTER RISK ASSESSMENT PROJECTS 13

14 by BPAC/UNDP, is implementing risk identification activities as the first phase of a 5-year comprehensive DRM program. Regarding the way to implement the work, GRIP would provide the methodologies, training, technical advice, and coordination assistance that would be required. Since the main objective is to build local capacity, especially at the institutional level, it will be important to engage national and local institutions, rather than individuals, for the implementation of these activities. By doing so, GRIP will promote the incorporation of these activities into the regular activities of the local institutions, which in many cases have already the mandate to work on these issues. Through this, we will be trying to ensure sustainability of these activities. It is the only way. With consultants, one can get the results but no capacity remains and the effort is usually an isolated, unsustainable activity. Additionally, working with national institutions results in much lower costs since the relevant institutions will use their own staff, who will be trained and will continue working for the organization in the long-term but with increased capacities and knowledge. Any funding provided to the institutions will serve for institutional strengthening rather than going to individuals. Operationally, GRIP practices in the countries include 15 aspects that are delivered on request, covering the whole UNDP project cycle: - Overall vision on DRR based on risk assessment; - Preparation of concept notes. - Scoping workshop; - Proposal development; - Review and evaluation of technical proposals. - Project document finalization; - Access to financial support; - Interaction with other countries. - Coordination and overview; - Provision of appropriate methodologies and tools; - Hands-on trainings; - Technical support and advice; - Monitoring and review. - Result review and evaluation; - Closing workshop. 14 GRIP GUIDELINES FOR DESIGNING DISASTER RISK ASSESSMENT PROJECTS

15 Figure 2: A Summary of GRIP s Knowledge Products and Services GRIP GUIDELINES FOR DESIGNING DISASTER RISK ASSESSMENT PROJECTS 15

16 7. Typical Outputs The key outputs of a NRA project or programme include: a country faces within a given timeframe, described in terms of potential losses and probability of their occurrence. Comprehensive risk profiles may also include impacts, categorization and relative priority of the risks as well as the identification of acceptable levels of risks, high-risk areas/hotspots and risk reduction measures; and local levels, as well as by hazard, in terms of the different needs and requirements of decision making applications; tainable institution for the systematic collection, analysis and interpretation of disaster-related data. NDO is an integral part of National Risk Information System (NRIS); based decision support system for DRM/R; ment and applications; based on risk assessment; sessment; ment. 16 GRIP GUIDELINES FOR DESIGNING DISASTER RISK ASSESSMENT PROJECTS

17 8. Indicative Activities A comprehensive NRA programme/project generally involves 5 key thematic areas, which can be implemented as projects: tion for Risk Assessment; The indicative activities associated with these projects are listed as follows: 1) Key components/activities of a SIERA project (4-6 months) assessment; - Preliminary Analysis of hazard, exposure and risk profiles; - Training of end users on risk analysis & applications; - Systematic reporting and knowledge generation; - Inputs to DRR National Master Plan. - Validation & Scoping workshop; - Mid-term progress reporting; - Evaluation workshop on key findings; - Final symposium. 3) Key components/activities of a NDO project ventory (1-2 months): - Introductory workshop (SIERA Training); - Interviews and group discussions; - Validation workshop. (1-2 months); - SIERA reporting; - National scoping workshop. 2) Key components/activities of a NRA project - Needs and requirements assessment; - Design of National Risk Information System (NRIS); - Training on data integration; - Integration of existing datasets; - Production of datasets required. profiling: - Hazard analysis; - Exposure analysis; - Vulnerability analysis; - Loss/impact analysis; - Disaster risk profiling. - Country-specific application needs - Introductory Workshop; - Preparation of Working Groups; - Creation of National Network; - Institutionalization of day by day collection; - Training on Disaster Registration. - Needs and requirements assessment; - Inventory of existing DBs; - Database design; - Training on Data Entry; - Integration of existing disaster databases; - Inventory of historical disasters; - Systematic Disaster Registration. - Country-specific application needs assessment; - Preliminary Analysis of disaster database; - Training of end users on disaster analysis & applications; - Systematic reporting and knowledge generation; - Inputs to DRR National Master Plan. - Mid-term progress reporting; - Report on preliminary analysis; GRIP GUIDELINES FOR DESIGNING DISASTER RISK ASSESSMENT PROJECTS 17

18 Final symposium. 5) Key components/activities of a CRA project 4) Key components/activities of a URA project - Establishment of the coordination team, working groups, and advisory groups; - Collection and compilation of data from different sources; - Kick-off meeting to raise awareness among the community and bring all the potential stakeholders on board. - Identification of all major hazards prevailing in the city and its surroundings; - Development plausible event scenarios for relevant hazards; - Mapping of the spatial distribution of hazard event severity. - Identification of the exposure of population and physical structures to hazard events. - Development of vulnerability functions for exposed physical structures and population; - Development of realistic damage and impact scenarios; - Consultation with relevant stakeholders to validate the developed damage and impact scenarios. - Assessment of the current level of risk management and disaster preparedness; - Formulation of risk management activities, implementation strategy, and institutional arrangements; - Development of urban disaster risk reduction action plan and contingency plans for relevant risk and disaster scenarios; - Consultations with relevant authorities to take decisions and put them into practice, and with the public to raise awareness. pecific solutions, local knowledge, implementation planning,capacity development, coordination mechanism in terms of risk identification and assessment. sharing, Interaction & networking, collaboration & partnership, cross-boundary issues in the context of risk identification and assessment. 18 GRIP GUIDELINES FOR DESIGNING DISASTER RISK ASSESSMENT PROJECTS

19 9. Specific Monitoring and Evaluation Considerations GRIP s Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) considerations are 3-fold: projects, GRIP tracks the progress of a project in terms of the 15 aspects of country support within the UNDP s project cycle; assessment, GRIP implements SIERA for the creation of country profile for risk assessment and encourages the countries to update the country profile annually and track the changes; helps the countries develop baselines for DRR based on evidence-based risk assessment. GRIP GUIDELINES FOR DESIGNING DISASTER RISK ASSESSMENT PROJECTS 19

20 10. Useful Tools and Resources Identification and Assessment, please visit GRIP site: ventions, please refer to the following materials that are available upon request: - Booklet on GRIP service package; - Concept paper on GRIP country support; - Concept notes on National Risk Assessment Framework; - Template ToRs for SIERA, NRA, NDO, URA; - Guidelines for implementing NRA, NDO, and URA (under development); - Concept notes on national workshops on SIERA, NRA, NDO; - Sample applications of risk assessment; - Pre-disaster shelter planning; - Climate change adaptation; - Poverty-disaster loss nexus; - Methodologies: - RAIDUS tool; - Flood Risk Assessment Tool (FRAT); - SIERA methodology; - National disaster coding system; - GRIP hazard categorization and definition. 20 GRIP GUIDELINES FOR DESIGNING DISASTER RISK ASSESSMENT PROJECTS

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22 Global Risk Identification Programme (GRIP) Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery (BCPR) United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) Empowered lives. Resilient nations , chemin des Anémones, Châtelaine, CH-1219 Geneva, Switzerland