Third Annual Total Market Forecasting in Pharma USA Wednesday June 11 and Thursday June 12 2008, Central Philadelphia, PA, USA Forecasting success within a fast-paced and challenging industry Silver sponsor: Organised by: VIBpharma Register online now at: www.market-forecasting.com/usa
Program Day One Wednesday June 11 2008 8:30 Registration 9:00 Opening remarks from the Chair Dr. Robert Carbone, CEO, Futurion Forecasting within the context of pharma 9:10 The principles of total market forecasting What is total market forecasting? Why total market forecasting? What are the underlying principles? How can these principles be applied for different local market dynamics and data availability? Presenting a US case study in an Excel free environment Dr. Robert Carbone, CEO, Futurion 9:50 Driving home the importance of getting the forecast right Short term versus long term accuracy: more than just a matter of time Establishing the forecast process Creating and communicating accurate forecasts Sanjeev Ganatra, Manager, Sales and Marketing, ISTA Pharmaceuticals 10:30 Morning refreshments 11:00 360 degree forecasting in a complex and dynamic pharmaceutical market Developing the right assumptions Overcoming organizational biases Using data and forecasting techniques effectively Understanding uncertainty in the forecast and the risks to business decisions Zhen Tang, Senior Manager, Forecasting, Amgen 11:40 Forecasting with uncertainty in the competitive context Accurately predicting competitors/ substitutes at time of launch Using competitive intelligence data as part of the forecast assumptions Using patient flow models to measure competitiveness scenarios and influence in portfolio decisions Case study: modeling commercial opportunities in oncology Jeffrey Composto, Director, Global Business Analysis, Novartis Oncology Eduardo Sabo, Principal, Market Analytics Group 12:20 Lunch Assessing the availability of forecasting solutions in the industry 1:30 Pharma is different: the dangers of applying generic forecasting techniques to pharma forecasts Moving away from standard forecasting techniques used by pharma companies: most were developed for other industries and operate in fundamentally different markets Case studies: major errors caused by using off-the-shelf standard forecasting techniques in the pharma market Examples of uptake curves, market share models and flow models Gary Johnson, Managing Director, Inpharmation 2:10 Comparing and contrasting forecasting for biologics with forecasting for small molecules Identifying the competitive factors that are contributing to the growth of biologics Explaining why the approval processes for biologics and small molecules differ - current and future trends Preparing for the inevitable shift ahead The panel will be made up of speakers from throughout the two days, who will discuss and debate the major topics and questions 2:50 Afternoon refreshments Pricing, regulations and the role of managed care 3:20 Pricing and the role of regulatory authorities Addressing regulatory effects on pricing and market access Predicting the future role of the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) Acknowledging the impact on share price and stakeholder perceptions Discussing regulatory change and the reliability of current forecasts Dan Todd, Senior Manager, Reimbursement and Public Policy, Amgen Preparing for the future of forecasting in pharma 4:00 Case study: forecasting for licensing opportunities Expanding to bring in new licensing and acquisition deals Developing sales forecasts and commercial assessments to support both scouting and valuation activities Given the early stage opportunities, is forecasting merely throwing darts or are there methodologies that bring robustness to projections? Forecasting methodologies used to triangulate towards a better sales forecast Explaining where forecasting helped us to define development and marketing plans for several newly licensed products Jay Glasscott, Senior Manager, Business Development Commercial Assessment, Shire Pharmaceuticals 4:40 Closing remarks from the Chair and end of day one
Program Day Two Thursday June 12 2008 8:30 Registration 9:00 Opening remarks from the Chair Joe Lawson, Senior Manager, Forecasting, Johnson & Johnson 9:10 Roundtable morning Delegates will attend two one-hour roundtable discussion groups from a selection of key topics. Each session will be lead by an industry expert who will facilitate the exchange of opinions, essential experiences and learning relating to forecasting in pharma. Roundtable 1: The ins and outs of new product forecasting Dag Welle, Senior Manager, Strategic Business Analytics, NicOx Roundtable 2: Centralizing forecasting processes Peter Lena, Director, Forecasting, Sepracor Roundtable 3: Forecasting best practices Dr. Kenneth Kahn, Director, Avrum and Joyce Gray, Burton Morgan Center for Entrepreneurship and Purdue University Roundtable 4: Discussing and debating a key issue relating to forecasting in pharma (to be announced on the website before the event) Martin Szostak, Principal, Global Forecasting and Opportunity Assessment, IMS Health 11:15 Morning refreshments Pharma forecasting: an academic case-study 11:45 Projecting patient persistence How to set up a simple persistence analysis in a familiar spreadsheet environment Developing a probability model to capture and project persistence patterns over time Examining the diagnostics that emerge from such a model Contrasting this approach to typical regression models Peter Fader, Professor, Marketing, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania Ka Lok Lee, Ph.D. Candidate, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania Improving results with the use of best practice forecasting techniques 1:30 The adjuster: a home-grown visual basic application Incorporating judgmental changes: an Excel spreadsheet enhanced with visual basic Providing quick answers to the what if questions which forecasters are required to respond to Self developed and customized to handle multiple inline product forecasts: a forecasting one-stop tool A live demonstration of its capabilities John Brown, Senior Manager, Forecasting, Daiichi Sankyo 2:10 The ins and outs of new product forecasting Data considerations Choosing the appropriate methodology Refining your assumptions Building your model Dag Welle, Senior Manager, Strategic Business Analytics, NicOx 2:50 Afternoon refreshments Unique perspectives on forecast challenges 3:20 Forecasting in oncology What is done differently? Increasing the availability of data sources: accessing new data sources Finding and implementing the right analysis tools Joe Lawson, Senior Manger, Forecasting, Johnson & Johnson 4:00 New product forecasting: cross industry approaches Comparing what companies have done in the past with what is being done now Choosing the right new product forecasting technique Case studies from the consumer technology sector: lessons for pharma Dr Kenneth Kahn Dr. Kenneth Kahn, Director, Avrum and Joyce Gray, Burton Morgan Center for Entrepreneurship and Purdue University 4:40 Closing remarks from the Chair and end of conference 12:25 Lunch Organised by: VIBpharma VIBevents provides high-quality commercially focused conferences, based on our own research and our close links with leading practitioners and business advisors. VIBevents is a trading name of SPG Media Ltd., a wholly owned subsidiary of SPG Media Group Plc. VIBevents 2008
Pre-conference workshop Market share forecasting in pharma Tuesday June 10, 2008 Led by: Dr. Robert Carbone and Walter Colasante, Futurion www.futurcast.com About the workshop In this unique workshop you will get the opportunity to join other like-minded individuals seeking to reduce the level of inaccurate forecasts across their portfolio of products. This intimate setting will allow you to ask questions and share your own forecasting challenges and successes. Workshop agenda 8:30 Registration and coffee 9:00 Fundamentals of market share forecasting Methodology Epidemiology versus in-market Needs over the life cycle Activities, tools and database 9:30 In-line product forecasting fundamentals Toolbox and selecting the best method Extrapolating TRx versus ex-factory Filtering data and capturing the seasonality 10:30 Morning refreshments 10:45 In-market product market share forecasting Market definitions and key parameters Deriving ex-factory sales The concepts of baseline and to-and-from assumptions ARB case study 12:00 Lunch 1:00 Epidemiological patient share forecasting Population, disease and product trees Prevalence versus incidence Computing market patients for defined segments Allocating patients to products by segment Model validation 2:30 Afternoon refreshments 2:45 Epidemiological patient share forecasting Generating the segmented market share baseline forecasts Market, patient share and product assumptions Diabetes case study 4:30 Close of workshop About your workshop leaders Dr. Robert Carbone received his doctorate from Carnegie- Mellon University. He co-developed the Carbone-Longini AEP filter which contributed to the application of adaptive filtering methods. He has guided the development of the FUTURCAST system. Dr. Carbone has made the academic tradition of research and development a hallmark at Futurion. Walter Colasante is a Senior Advisor to and Associate of Futurion Pharmaceutical Group. He has a background in medicine and also holds an MSc in biochemistry and an MBA. Before this, he spent over ten years in the pharmaceutical industry in clinical development, brand management, project management, disease management and strategic marketing at Bristol-Myers Squibb, Allergan and Novartis.
Silver sponsor: Futurion provides enterprise forecasting solutions to pharmaceutical companies of all sizes. Currently, customers such as Boehringer-Ingelheim International and Novartis Pharma AG benefit from the worldwide implementation of FUTURCAST Oracle assumptionbased forecasting methodology, which integrates a total market perspective. Futurion s Haruspex is the first and only pipeline forecasting system available in a centralized Oracle environment. www.futurcast.com Sponsor: All the world's top 10 pharma companies use Inpharmation's evidence based market models. If you have a question and the answer is a number (a forecast, a price, a field force size etc.), Inpharmation probably has a simple, evidence based solution for you. www.inpharmation.co.uk Media Partners: PharmaForce International is the global leader in benchmarking pharmaceutical sales, marketing and medical affairs operations. Leading pharmaceutical and biotech companies across the globe utilize PharmaForce's syndicated and proprietary research to maximize the success of product launches, allocate precious marketing resources, restructure/ expand/create functional departments and thoroughly evaluate the competitive landscape. www.pharmaforce.biz Foresight seeks to advance the practice of forecasting by publishing useful, readable perspectives on forecasting principles, processes, and methods. For a free copy, to subscribe, or to reserve advertising space, visit www.forecasters.org/foresight Pharma and Healthcare Insight provides subscribers with analysis, forecasts and company profiles on a country-by-country basis, covering the key trends impacting on global pharma and healthcare markets. The service includes online access to the very latest analysis and data, a searchable archive and PDF access to the monthly regional insight reports. www.pharmaceuticalsinsight.com Pharmiweb Solutions is an energetic, innovative provider of web-based solutions for the pharmaceutical sector, with customers such as AstraZeneca, Roche, Servier Laboratories, and Merck. With solutions in three key areas: Online publishing, e-business and Mobile Computing, we deliver connectivity between people and applications unlocking islands of data and knowledge. www.pharmiwebsolutions.com Pharma Marketing News is an independent monthly electronic newsletter focused on issues of importance to pharmaceutical marketing executives. www.news.pharma-mkting.com Applied Forecasting is a free and independent portal for the Forecasting community. It serves researchers, practitioners and students with the latest news, upcoming events, links and a forum. www.appliedforecasting.com Wish to display your services and expertise at this leading event? Where else can you meet the leading forecasting professionals from the USA and Canada all in one place? We have a number of promotional packages available with competitive prices to suit all budgets. If you want to be part of this successful event for the pharmaceutical industry, please contact Paul Adams on +44 (0) 20 7753 4259 or email pauladams@vibevents.com.
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