AGRIBUSINESS FOR AFRICA S PROSPERITY

AGRIBUSINESS FOR AFRICA S PROSPERITY Kandeh K. Yumkella Patrick M. Kormawa Torben M. Roepstorff Anthony M. Hawkins Editors

Agribusiness for Africa s Prosperity Kandeh K. Yumkella Patrick M. Kormawa Torben M. Roepstorff Anthony M. Hawkins editors

UNIDO 2011. All rights reserved. Reproduction and dissemination of material in this information product for educational or other non-commercial purposes are authorized without any prior written permission from the publisher provided the source is fully acknowledged. Reproduction of material in this information product for resale or other commercial purposes is prohibited without written permission of the publisher. The designations employed and the presentation of the material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries, or its economic system or degree of development. Designations such as developed, industrialized and developing are intended for statistical convenience and do not necessarily express a judgement about the state reached by a particular country or area in the development process. The mention of specific companies or products of manufacturers, whether or not these have been patented, does not imply endorsement or recommendation by UNIDO in preference to others of a similar nature that have not been mentioned. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of UNIDO. UNIDO ID/440 Sales No.: E.11.II.B39 ISBN: 978 92 1 106446 9 e-isbn: 978 92 1 054827 4 Cover design by Excelsis Sàrl, Switzerland. Layout by Smith + Bell Design (UK). Printed in Austria, May 2011.

Agribusiness for Africa s Prosperity Table of Contents List of Tables...5 List of Figures...7 List of Boxes...9 Preface...11 List of Contributors...13 Acknowledgements...15 Foreword...17 Explanatory notes...19 Part A: African agribusiness: Retrospects and prospects in a global setting...23 1. New global realities governing agribusiness Steve Wiggins and Torben M. Roepstorff...24 2. The profile of agribusiness in Africa Torben M. Roepstorff, Steve Wiggins and Anthony M. Hawkins...38 Part B: The seven core pillars of agribusiness development in Africa...57 3. Enhancing agricultural productivity John Staatz...58 4. Upgrading value chains Stefano Ponte...87 5. Exploiting local, regional and international demand Timothy O. Williams...135 6. Strengthening technological effort and innovation capabilities Karl Wohlmuth...165 7. Promoting effective and innovative financing Patrick M. Kormawa and Jean Devlin...200

Table of Contents 8. Stimulating private participation Franklyn Lisk...228 9. Improving infrastructure and energy access Murefu Baresa, Abdul Kamara, John C. Anyanwu and Gil Seong Kang...247 Part C: An agenda for action...277 10. The new policy space Torben M. Roepstorff, Anthony M. Hawkins, Dirk Willem te Velde and Nicola Cantore...278 11. A programme framework Patrick M. Kormawa and Torben M. Roepstorff...300 Annex...307 Bibliography...324

Agribusiness for Africa s Prosperity List of Tables Table 1.1: Structure of world output 1995-2008...25 Table 1.2: Processed food exports for selected production categories 1990-2006...32 Table 1.3: Developing countries exports of processed foods 1990-2006...33 Table 2.1: Manufacturing value added in Africa...39 Table 2.2: Food, beverages and tobacco as per cent of total manufacturing value added...41 Table 2.3: Structure and size of sub-saharan Africa s agricultural market...44 Table 2.4: Intra-African trade 1996-2006...45 Table 2.5: Sectoral shares in employment, world and regions, 1997 and 2005 to 2007...51 Table 3.1: African agricultural growth decomposition, 1971-2000...61 Table 3.2: Use of productivity-enhancing technologies in farming 2001-03...62 Table 3.3: Labour productivity in African countries in agribusiness...63 Table 3.4: Characteristics of different types of processing firms in West Africa...67 Table 3.5: Importance of selected determinants of competitiveness in the four economies of agriculture...70 Table 4.1: Overview of case studies...91 Table 4.2: Overview of product upgrading in the South African wine industry...115 Table 4.3: Overview of process upgrading in the South African wine industry...117 Table 4.4: Overview of functional upgrading...118 Table 4.5: Situational analysis and value chain governance...125 Table 4.6: Upgrading trajectories, limitations, threats, risk and vulnerability...126 Table 4.7: Lessons from upgrading interventions...128 Table 5.1: World total merchandise and agro-industrial exports by commodity category, 1990-2008...138 Table 5.2: World total merchandise and agro-industrial imports from Africa by commodity category, 1990-2008...141 5

List of Tables Table 5.3: Total intra-african merchandise and agro-industrial imports by commodity category, 1990-2008...145 Table 5.4: Business environment in comparative perspective 2009...149 Table 5.5: Most favoured nation (MFN) applied tariff rates and distribution of tariff lines and import shares by duty classes in the European Union (EU)...150 Table 5.6: MFN applied tariff rates and distribution of tariff lines and import shares by duty classes in the United States (US)...151 Table 5.7: Tariff escalation in OECD member countries for agricultural products 2005-2006...152 Table 5.8: China: Agro-industrial imports from Africa by commodity category, 1990-2008...156 Table 5.9: India: Agro-industrial imports from Africa by commodity category, 1990-2008...157 Table 5.10: MFN applied tariff rates and distribution of tariff lines and import shares by duty classes in China...158 Table 5.11: MFN applied tariff rates and distribution of tariff lines and import shares by duty classes in India...159 Table 9.1: Main corridors in Africa...253 Table 9.2: Investment requirements to attain universal access to reliable electric power by 2030...259 Table 9.3: Examples of small-scale productive application of alternative energy technologies...263 Table 10.1: The new normal paradigm...279 Table 10.2: Shifting wealth in a four-speed world...280 Table 10.3: Pros and cons of contentious issues for policymakers...286 Table 10.4: Agenda for Action: Synopsis of critical determinants and key policy options for agribusiness development in Africa...297 6

Agribusiness for Africa s Prosperity List of Figures Figure 1.1: Agro-industry as percentage of Manufacutring Value Added (MVA) 2000-2008...29 Figure 1.2: Distribution of global agro-processing value added 2000-2008...29 Figure 1.3: Relative shares of agriculture and agribusiness in GDP...30 Figure 1.4: Developing country manufacturing value added 2000-2008...30 Figure 1.5: Developing countries exports of selected agro-food products 1990-2006...32 Figure 2.1: Agro-industry as percentage of total MVA...40 Figure 2.2: Structure of agro-industry MVA...40 Figure 2.3: Annual growth rate of value added of different sectors in Africa 2002-2007...41 Figure 2.4: Projected increases in intra-africa demand 2000-2030...45 Figure 2.5: Structure of exports by degree of processing...46 Figure 3.1: Cereal yield trends by region of the World...60 Figure 3.2: Contribution of yield and area to increases in cereal production, 1980-2009...60 Figure 3.3: Land area under crops in Africa, 1961-2007...61 Figure 3.4: Size distribution of smallholder farmers in selected African countries...65 Figure 5.1: Share of commodity groups in total world exports, 1990-2008...139 Figure 5.2: Value and growth rate of EU agro-industrial exports by commodity group, 1990-2008...139 Figure 5.3: Value and growth rate of USA agro-industrial exports by commodity group, 1990-2008...140 Figure 5.4: Value and growth rate of Asia agro-industrial exports by commodity group, 1990-2008...142 Figure 5.5: Value and growth rate of Latin America and Caribbean agro-industrial exports by commodity group, 1990-2008...143 7

List of Figures Figure 5.6: Share of commodity groups in total world imports from Africa, 1990-2008...143 Figure 7.1: Total resource receipts of Africa from all sources, 1995-2007...204 Figure 7.2: ODA disbursements to agribusiness in Africa, 2002-2005 average...208 Figure 7.3: ODA disbursements to agribusiness in Africa, 2006-2007 average...208 Figure 7.4: Gross domestic savings, Africa versus other regions 2000-2008...210 Figure 7.5: Value of commercial banks lending to the agricultural sector in selected African countries...211 Figure 7.6: Share of commercial banks lending to agriculture relative to total lending and to GDP...212 Figure 8.1: Result matrix: Private sector development and agro-industry...233 Figure 9.1: Comparative road densities...249 Figure 9.2: Trans-African highways...249 Figure 9.3: Top 60 international air routes within sub-saharan Africa...251 Figure 9.4: Final energy use in agriculture...255 Figure 9.5: Urban and rural electrification rates...257 Figure 9.6: Africa s urban-rural projected population distribution...257 Figure 9.7: Current and projected number of people relying on biomass...260 Figure 9.8: Current and projected electrification rates...262 Figure 9.9: Mobile cellular subscription (per 100 people)...267 Figure 9.10: Africa undersea cables...269 Figure 9.11: Top ten Internet user countries in Africa...269 8

Agribusiness for Africa s Prosperity List of Boxes Box 1.1: What is agribusiness?...28 Box 1.2: Brazil: Application of science and technology as a dynamic source of competitiveness...35 Box 1.3: Malaysia: Continuous diversification towards new agribusiness activities...35 Box 1.4: Thailand: Agro-industrial development for social inclusion...36 Box 2.1: Contribution of agribusiness to MDGs...49 Box 2.2: Two stylized facts: Economic growth and poverty reduction...49 Box 2.3: Global players in agribusiness value chain...52 Box 3.1: Impact of climate change on agro-industry in sub-saharan Africa...63 Box 3.2: Large-scale farming in Africa: Criteria for promotion...83 Box 6.1: The impact on Africa of shifting agro-industrial technologies...166 Box 6.2: Innovation, human skills and technology capacity indices...167 Box 6.3: Translating comparative advantages in agro-industry into competitiveness by STI policies and inputs...172 Box 6.4: The six critical factors for converting comparative advantage into competitiveness by incorporating STI inputs and STI policies...174 Box 6.5: STI as a constraint to the United Republic of Tanzania s export diversification into agro-industries...176 Box 6.6: Homegrown Ltd.: A Kenyan market champion in the horticulture sector...176 Box 6.7: Technological learning and innovation in a Kenyan textile and garment producing firm...178 Box 6.8: South African services, technology and know-how exports to other African countries for agro-industry development...179 9

List of Boxes Box 6.9: Technological learning, product innovation and collaboration in the United Republic of Tanzania s agro-industry...182 Box 6.10: Determinants of innovation capacity in agro-processing value chains...185 Box 6.11: South Africa s National Innovation System (NIS), agro-industry development and global competitiveness...188 Box 6.12: National innovation system: The key pillars...188 Box 6.13: Food processing in Rwanda: Building human capabilities and developing STI infrastructure for agro-industry development...195 Box 7.1: Spectrum of agribusiness finance...201 Box 7.2: Markala sugar project...206 Box 7.3: Foreign investment into African agricultural production...209 Box 7.4: Negotiating contracts for agribusiness development...217 Box 7.5: Case study: Zambia s warehouse receipt system and out-grower schemes...220 Box 7.6: M-Pesa leads mobile banking revolution...224 Box 7.7: Example of a shareholder loan...226 Box 8.1: How informal is the African economy?...230 Box 8.2: Viet Nam s case of business environment reform...241 Box 8.3: The revival of cooperatives in Africa...243 Box 9.1: Main transport corridors to landlocked countries...253 Box 9.2: Solar drying business links producers with export markets in Uganda...260 Box 9.3: Multifunctional platform (MFP) in Mali...261 Box 9.4: Impact of climate change on water supply...266 Box 10.1: The small versus large farm debate...287 Box 11.1: Summary of agenda for action: Synopsis of programme framework for agribusiness development in Africa...305 10

Agribusiness for Africa s Prosperity Preface African economic growth remains largely commodity-based on exports of oil, minerals and agricultural commodities with little or no processing involved. In order to accelerate sustainable and inclusive growth and development in Africa there is an urgent need for fostering a new development approach based on exploiting the full agribusiness potential of the continent. This could focus on increasing agro-industrial value added and employment along the entire agribusiness value chain in agriculture, industry and services. This book analyses the challenges, the potential and opportunities of African agribusiness in the current period of dramatic changes in global agro-industrial markets, and builds a strong case for agribusiness development as a path to Africa s prosperity. The book was inspired by discussions within the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) and with renowned international experts on the subject. It is based on a comprehensive study to fill what UNIDO perceives as a substantial gap in the knowledge of agribusiness development. This initiative is consistent with the Strategy for the Implementation of the Plan of Action for the Accelerated Industrial Development of Africa (AIDA) adopted by the Conference of African Ministers of Industry in Durban in October 2008, and the African Agribusiness and Agro-industries Development Initiative (3ADI) endorsed by the High-level Conference on the Development of Agribusiness and Agro-industries in Africa, held in Abuja in March 2010. The idea was elaborated in an Expert Group Meeting on Adding value to Africa s agro-industry and trade, organized by UNIDO in Vienna, in June 2009, which brought together international experts from universities, United Nations agencies and agribusiness practitioners to brainstorm on the topic. Following this, a number of background papers and country case studies from Cameroon, Ethiopia, Kenya, Mali, Nigeria, Senegal, South Africa and Zambia were commissioned from renowned international experts, and these contributions form the substance of the book. 11

Preface The book comprises three parts: Part A outlines the current status of agribusiness and agro-industrial activities in Africa, in an historical and global context. It analyses the rationale for diversified and socially-inclusive growth through agribusiness development, along with the key determinants for fostering agribusiness value chain development. The seven chapters constituting Part B of the book analyse the seven development pillars for agribusiness development, in terms of enhancing agricultural productivity; upgrading value chains; exploiting local, regional and international demand; strengthening technological effort and innovation capabilities; promoting effective and innovative financing; stimulating private participation; and improving infrastructure and energy access. This analysis is followed by an agenda for action in Part C, with a key focus on visions, policies, strategies and institutions for Africa s agribusiness development and the way forward towards converting plans into action. 12

Agribusiness for Africa s Prosperity List of Contributors John C. Anyanwu, Lead Research Economist the Development Research Department of African Development Bank, Tunis, Tunisia Murefu Barasa, Senior Consultant at Camco Global, Nairobi, Kenya. Nicola Cantore, Research Fellow, Investment and Growth at the Overseas Development Institute, London, United Kingdom. Jean Devlin, Assistant Industrial Development Officer, Agribusiness Development Branch of the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO), Vienna, Austria. Anthony M. Hawkins, Professor of Economics at University of Zimbabwe, Graduate School of Management, Harare, Zimbabwe. Abdul B. Kamara, Manager of the Research Division in the Development Research Department of African Development Bank, Tunis, Tunisia. Gil Seong Kang, Principal Research Economist in the Development Research Department of African Development Bank, Tunis, Tunisia. Patrick Kormawa, Head, Agribusiness Development Unit, Agribusiness Development Branch of UNIDO, Vienna, Austria. Franklyn Lisk, Professorial Research Fellow at the Centre for the Study of Globalisation and Regionalisation at the University of Warwick, Warwick, United Kingdom. Stefano Ponte, Senior Researcher and Head of Research Unit Global Economy, Regulation and Development (GEARED) at the Danish Institute for International Studies, Copenhagen, Denmark. Torben M. Roepstorff, UNIDO Senior Economic Advisor (Consultant) for the project and former Chief, Industrial Development Review Unit, UNIDO, Vienna, Austria. John Staatz, Emeritus Professor of Agricultural Economics at Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan, United States. 13

List of Contributors Dirk Willem Te Velde, Programme leader of the Investment and Growth Programme at the Overseas Development Institute, London, United Kingdom. Steve Wiggins, Research Fellow at the Overseas Development Institute, London, United Kingdom. Timothy Olekan Williams, Head of the Enterprise and Agriculture Section at the Commonwealth Secretariat, London, United Kingdom. Karl Wohlmuth, Professor Emeritus at University of Bremen, Faculty of Economics and Business Studies, Bremen, Germany. 14

Agribusiness for Africa s Prosperity Acknowledgements This book has been prepared under the technical guidance of Kandeh K. Yumkella, Director-General of the United Nations Industrial Development Organization. The editors, Patrick M. Kormawa, Torben M. Roepstorff and Anthony M. Hawkins were responsible for the drafting and overall substantive editing of the manuscript. The guidance of Torben M. Roepstorff, UNIDO Senior Economic Advisor to the project, during the entire process is greatly appreciated. The editors wish to acknowledge the collaboration and technical inputs provided by the contributors and authors, who participated in the conceptualization and drafting of various book chapters and their review: John C. Anyanwu, Murefu Barasa, Nicola Cantore, Jean Devlin, Anthony M. Hawkins, Abdul B. Kamara, Gil Seong Kang, Patrick Kormawa, Franklyn Lisk, Stefano Ponte, Torben M. Roepstorff, John Staatz, Dirk Willem te Velde, Steve Wiggins, Timothy O. Williams and Karl Wohlmuth. A special word of appreciation is due to these contributors for their commitment to the project and for their readiness to promptly react to editorial comments. Special thanks are due to the peer reviewers of the manuscript, Eric Tollens, Professor Emeritus of Agricultural and Food Economics at Catholic University of Leuven, Belgium; and Colin McCarthy, Professor Emeritus in Economics at the University of Stellenbosch, South Africa. They carefully analysed the draft and provided valuable feedback, comments and suggestions. Also thanks to Jebamalai Vinanchiarachi, Senior Research Fellow, Department of Development Studies, University of Malaysia, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia; and Anthony Ikpe, Professor of Agricultural Economics, Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Ibadan, Nigeria, for valuable inputs to selected parts of the study. The editors are also grateful to UNIDO technical staff who lent time and effort to review individual chapters and case studies: Philippe Scholtès, Director Agribusiness Development; Ludovico Alcorta, Director, Research and Statistics; Mohamed 15

Acknowledgements L. Dhaoui, Director, Business, Investment and Technology Services; Lalith Goonathilake, Director, Trade Capacity Building; Fatou Haidara, Director, Special Programmes; Sarwar Hobohm, Director, Organizational Strategy and Coordination; Frank Hartwich, Michele Clara, Anders Isaksson and Matilda Muweme, Industrial Development Officers; Stefano Bologna and Frank Van Rompaey, UNIDO Representatives in Cameroon and South Africa, respectively. The editors wish to acknowledge the efforts of Jean Devlin for her dedication and editorial and technical support at all stages, Ludovico Alcorta for shepherding the manuscript through the publication process, and Chuma Ezedinma, Agricultural Economist, for his inputs on infrastructure and energy. The Editors Vienna February 2011 16

Agribusiness for Africa s Prosperity Foreword For centuries, agriculture has driven economic growth in countries across the globe, and African nations are following the same path out of poverty. With agriculture accounting for 65 per cent of the continent s employment and 75 per cent of its domestic trade, it is likely to drive Africa s economic growth for years to come. Smallholder farmers will be the backbone of that effort. New and evolving markets hold the promise of greater profits for smallholder farmers. Feeding the rapidly growing urban population will require more and higher quality agricultural commodities. Urban consumers will also increase demand for processed agricultural products, so adding value to farmers outputs will take centre stage in years to come. This will provide lucrative opportunities not just for the women and men who grow the food, but for a wide range of rural workers, especially the emerging generation of young people. A key first step in exploiting these opportunities is recognizing smallholder farms as agribusinesses, regardless of their size or scale. Unfortunately, too many small agribusinesses in Africa are neither productive nor profitable. There are two significant reasons why they remain trapped in a cycle of subsistence. First, their yields are too low to generate marketable surpluses, because they lack access to modern technology and productive assets. Second, farmers cannot get their produce to markets, because of the lack of roads and linkages between farm-level production and downstream activities, such as processing and marketing. African agriculture and agribusiness must be transformed to meet the demands of the twenty-first century, and this book outlines the critical ingredients. UNIDO brought together some of the best minds in the field to analyse what is needed for agribusiness to serve as the path to Africa s prosperity. Their thinking led to the findings and recommendations covered in these pages. From our vantage point at the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD), we can clearly see the value in the initiatives carried out by UNIDO in this area, and we are pleased to have UNIDO as a collaborative partner. 17

Foreword The book identifies seven pillars of agribusiness development, the actions needed to transform subsistence agriculture into productive agribusiness: enhance productivity, upgrade value chains, exploit demand, strengthen technology, promote innovative sources of financing, stimulate private sector participation, and improve infrastructure and access to energy. Building on these pillars, it lays out an agenda for action and a practical framework to guide efforts by the entire range of stakeholders. I believe we need to spark an agribusiness and agro-industrial revolution for the benefit of rural areas. Such a revolution will bring sustained investment in the entire agribusiness value chain, which, in turn, will raise productivity and yields, improve competitiveness and increase profits. By implementing the thoughtful, practical ideas reported in this book, we can indeed use agribusiness to create prosperity for Africa and that means prosperity for the women and men who feed the continent s people. Dr. Kanayo F. Nwanze President, IFAD 18

Agribusiness for Africa s Prosperity Explanatory notes References to dollars ($) are to United States dollars, unless otherwise specified. The following abbreviations and acronyms appear in this publication: 3ADI AfDB AGOA AIDA AMCOST AUC CAADP CDM CFA COMESA DAC DFI DTIS ECA ECOWAS EBA EPA EPZ FAO FDI GDP GHG African Agribusiness and Agro-industries Development Initiative African Development Bank African Growth and Opportunity Act Accelerated Industrial Development of Africa African Ministerial Council on Science and Technology African Union Commission Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme Clean Development Mechanism Communauté financière africaine Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa Development Assistance Committee development finance institution Diagnostic Trade Integration Studies Economic Commission for Africa Economic Community of West African States Everything But Arms economic partnership agreement export processing zone Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations foreign direct investment gross domestic product green house gases 19

Explanatory notes GHP GMP GNP GSP HACCP ICT IEA IFAD IFC IFPRI ILO IMF ISIC ISO ITC LDCs LLCs MDGs MFA MFN MNC MVA NEPAD NGO NICs NIS NTB ODA OECD PPP PSD R&D REC RTA SADC SEZ SITC SME SPS SSA STI SWF TBT TFP TNCs good hygiene practices good manufacturing practices gross national product Generalized System of Preferences Agreement hazard analysis and critical control points information and communications technology International Energy Agency International Fund for Agricultural Development International Finance Corporation International Food Policy Research Institute International Labour Organization International Monetary Fund International Standard Industrial Classification International Organization for Standardization International Trade Centre least developed countries land locked countries Millennium Development Goals Multifibre Arrangement most-favoured nation multinational corporation manufacturing value added New Partnership for Africa's Development non-governmental organization newly industrializing countries national innovation system non-tariff barrier official development assistance Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development public-private partnership private sector development research and development regional economic communities regional trade agreement Southern African Development Community special economic zone Standard International Trade Classification small and medium-sized enterprise sanitary and phyto-sanitary measures sub-saharan Africa science, technology and innovation sovereign wealth fund technical barriers to trade total factor productivity transnational corporations 20

Agribusiness for Africa s Prosperity UEMOA/WAEMU West African Economic and Monetary Union [Union économique et monétaire ouest-africain] UN COMTRADE United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics Database UNCTAD United Nations Conference on Trade and Development UN DESA United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs UNDP United Nations Development Programme UNEP United Nations Environment Programme UNESCO United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization UNICEF United Nations Children s Fund UNIDO United Nations Industrial Development Organization VAT value added tax WDI World Development Indicators WEF World Economic Forum WTO World Trade Organization 21

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Agribusiness for Africa s Prosperity Part A: African agribusiness: Retrospects and prospects in a global setting 23

1. New global realities governing agribusiness 1. New global realities governing agribusiness Torben M. Roepstorff and Steve Wiggins 1.1 The setting Sub-Saharan Africa s robust economic growth since the late 1990s was briefly interrupted by the global recession (2008/9), leading to marginal decline in per capita income in 2009 for the first time since 1994. However, economic growth is forecast to resume its upward trajectory during the recovery phase, with growth (GDP) per capita rising to 2.5 per cent in 2010 and 3.0 per cent by 2011 (World Bank 2010a) though it is still too early to say whether the region s vastly improved economic growth performance in recent years will be translated into a healthy phase of economic transformation and sustainable development. Three main factors explain recent improvement in growth performance. These are (a) much stronger macroeconomic policies, as reflected in reduced budget deficits, healthier external payments balances, lower inflation, slower monetary growth and an enhanced investment climate; (b) the post-2002 surge in commodity prices, allied with the expansion of oil production, and (c) substantially higher inflows of foreign capital, especially, but not only private capital, and most notably foreign direct investment (FDI). While the primacy of growth is central to rapid economic transformation, in Africa the relatively good growth performance has seen many more millions get caught in the poverty trap due largely to the lack of diversification of sources of growth, including a continued over-reliance on primary commodity exports. It is critical to embark on a vigorous course of value addition to Africa s huge reservoir of agricultural resources in order to harness growth for development. Economic performance and the impact on poverty in the continent have shown that prosperity is not only due to resource endow- 24

Agribusiness for Africa s Prosperity ments, and that poverty is not due to the lack of resources. Several African resourcerich countries have remained poor, while other resource poor countries have become rich by climbing the ladder of value addition. Such developments demonstrate that prosperity and poverty are the results of policy choices. Seizing emerging opportunities for promoting agribusiness in the new global context is imperative for Africa s prosperity 1. As the world s poorest region, with half of its population living in extreme poverty on less than $1.25 a day (World Bank & IMF 2010), sub-saharan Africa (SSA) is behind the curve in terms of industrialization with manufacturing accounting for 15 per cent of GDP. This compares with 22 per cent for middle-income countries as a whole and 33 per cent in East Asia (Table 1.1). The linkages between manufacturing and income per capita run both ways African incomes are low because the continent is under-industrialized, but manufacturing is a lagging sector because the poverty headcount is high. Table 1.1 shows that Africa s economies have not diversified into manufacturing and that the growth of industry s share in GDP, as distinct from manufacturing, reflects growing dependence on primary activities, especially oil and mining a trend underscored by export data showing that in the 2005-2007 period fuels and mining products accounted for more than two-thirds of exports from SSA compared with 8.5 per cent for agriculture and 19 per cent for manufactured goods (WTO 2008). Table 1.1: Structure of world output 1995-2008 (per cent) Agriculture Industry Manufacturing Services 1995 2008 1995 2008 1995 2008 1995 2008 Low-income 35 26 22 28 12 14 43 47 Middle-income 14 9 35 37 23 22 51 53 High-income 2 1 30 26 20 17 68 73 Low and middle-income regions East Asia & Pacific 19 12 44 44 31 33 36 41 Europe & Central Asia 13 7 36 32 22 18 56 61 South Asia 26 18 27 28 17 16 46 53 Latin America 7 7 29 33 19 18 64 61 Middle East & North Africa 16 11 34 43 15 12 50 46 Sub-Saharan Africa 18 12 29 33 16 15 53 55 Source: World Bank (2010b) Manufacturing is a dynamic force in economic development. While developing countries as a whole have increased their share of world manufacturing value added from 19.6 per cent in 1995 to 33.6.per cent in 2009, mainly due to East Asia (China in particular), Africa s share remained marginal at only 1.2 per cent, half of which is produced in a single country, South Africa. 1. While the analysis in this book pertains to the whole continent of Africa, there is a broad-based distinction drawn between sub-saharan Africa, and North Africa, on the basis of distinct patterns of economic and agribusiness development that are discernible in both regions. 25