Gabon: Opportunities & Outlook

Transcription

1 Gabon: Opportunities & Outlook Rolake Akinkugbe West Africa/Gulf of Guinea Specialist & Head of Oil and Gas Research Ecobank Group UK-Gabon Investment Forum 29 November 2012

2 Section 1 Gabon s economy: an overview

3 Gabon has found a new high GDP growth has exceeded 6% since 2010; Average of 1.8% prior to 2010 Real GDP growth, annual % change Since 2010, Gabon s GDP boosted by increased spending on infrastructure 12,000,000 10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000,000 0 Total exports, US$ Crude oil Boats Ores Wood Products Oil is however still main export driver Source: IMF, Intracen. Ecobank Research 2012 Gabon: Opportunities & Outlook 29 November

4 Gabon s FDI inflows are rising FDI inflows rose fastest in 2010 as efforts to open the economy accelerated FDI inflows, US$ m Source: UNCTAD.. Gabon Cameroon Cote d'ivoire Liberia Ethiopia Tanzania Ecobank Research 2012 Gabon: Opportunities & Outlook 29 November

5 Section 2 Key sectors of the economy

6 Key sectors - hydrocarbons Gabon is fifth largest crude oil producer in Sub-Saharan Africa Production could rise above 260,000 bpd by 2013 Gabon s pre-salt upside potential could be as much as 5 billion barrels Crude oil production in Gabon, 000 barrels/day e 2013f % Share of SSA oil production 7% 5% 5% 7% 43% Crude oil production in Gabon by field, 000 barrels/day Rabi MAGHENA (Tsiengui) Tchatamba Sud Onal Atora Baudroie Marine & Nord Avouma and South Tchibala Source: Ecobank Research, US IEA, Global Data 33% Nigeria Angola Congo, Rep Eq. Guinea Gabon Others Ecobank Research 2012 Gabon: Opportunities & Outlook 29 November

7 Key sectors - mining High grade manganese deposits >250 million tons at Moanda near Franceville World s 4th largest producer of manganese 1.8 million tons worth almost $6 billion in 2011 Gabon is looking to increase production to 5.7 million tons by 2015 to become no 1 in the world New investments from mining companies 1 billion tons of Iron Ore in Belinga Silver, Iron Ore, slag and ash Ndjole Manganese Concession South Eastern deposits of Uranium GABON Belinga Iron Ore deposits Moanda Manganese deposits Source: Ecobank Research. Ecobank Research 2012 Gabon: Opportunities & Outlook 29 November

8 Key sectors agriculture & agribusiness Production of many soft commodities in Gabon has slowed Annual production, tonnes Source: FAOSTAT. Cassava Plantains Sugar Cane Previously built on the timber industry before oil Production of the country s top 3 crops has stayed largely flat, highlighting potential for boosting productivity in the sector Gabon has more than 15million hectare of farm land; key will be boosting value-chain capacity and financing (e.g. local processing, beneficiation, market access) Ecobank Research 2012 Gabon: Opportunities & Outlook 29 November

9 Section 2 Trade Flows and Regional Trade

10 Gabon key exports in 2011 Crude continues to dominate, but there is scope for diversification Gabon s main exports (US$ 000) Annual Growth in Value of Exports (%) Commodity/Product Annual Growth in Value % Crude Oil & Products 15 Shipping services 22 Ores 2 Wood & Timber -21 Rubber 26 Other Commodities 17 Tobacco 12 Oil continues to dominate Gabon s exports Annual growth in value of other exports (except Timber) suggests great scope for diversification given the right enabling environment Source: FAOSTAT. Ecobank Research 2012 Gabon: Opportunities & Outlook 29 November

11 Imports are dominated by manufactured goods and food Mostly come from France, which accounts for 32% of Gabon s imports Imported value in 2011 (US$ 000) Share of Gabon s Imports (2011) Sources: Intracen, Ecobank Research. Imports dominated by France; with EU nearly half of all imports Mostly machinery, vehicles, electronics and high-end manufactured and consumer goods China is however growing in importance for cheaper manufactured goods Although South-South co-operation is growing, until recently trade with emerging market economies has been low. Ecobank Research 2012 Gabon: Opportunities & Outlook 29 November

12 Gabon has a handful of export partners The US dominates (mostly crude oil) accounting for 45% of Gabon s exports Share of Gabon s Exports, 2011 Exported growth in value from (% p.a.) Sources: Intracen, Ecobank Research. Exports dominated by US, Congo Rep. and Malaysia (account for more than 60%) Biggest growth in export value between 2007 and 2011 was from Australia, Malaysia and Spain However over the past 24 months there has been a surge in exports to Japan and Congo Rep. and a decline to China and France Congo s 11% share of Gabon s exports underscore Gabon s potential to capture bigger share of CEMAC trade Ecobank Research 2012 Gabon: Opportunities & Outlook 27 November

13 Crude oil accounts for nearly 90% of CEMAC s total exports but Gabon can help boost CEMAC intra-regional trade, which is as low as 1.7% of total trade Crude & Petroleum Products Wood & Timber Metals & Ores Rubber Cocoa Cotton Cameroon EG Chad CAR % Share of intra-regional trade to total trade by sub-regional grouping ( ) Gabon Sources: Intracen, Ecobank Research. Congo CEMAC COMESA EAC ECOWAS SADC WAEMU The Central African region has the lowest intra-regional trade flows of all SSA sub-regions Cameroon is the regional trade flow hub, but Gabon has huge potential to mirror s Tanzania s role in East African trade for instance; strategically located between CEMAC s largest oil exporter (Congo) and it s largest oil refiner (Cameroon) The second biggest export flow of refined products in the region is Gabon, whose biggest export partner are Congo Rep. & Equatorial Guinea at $10 million worth of products in Ecobank Research 2012 Gabon: Opportunities & Outlook 29 November

14 Other energy related opportunities A regional supplier of refined products Gabon s SOGARA refinery produced 983,000 tonnes of products in 2011 Has produced around 900,000 tonnes in 2012, despite domestic demand of only 655, 829 tonnes in 2011 Product surplus (25,000 bpd) from planned new refinery (50,000 bpd in 2016) will help plug further regional gaps in supply Gabon s gas is a potential base for power, agriculture, manufacturing, industry & petchems Gabon has gas reserves of 1 billion cubic feet Production will rise steadily through to 2020 Gabon s gas provides a based for urea-based fertiliser production and export Value-creation potential of natural gas within local economy much higher than crude oil Sources: Ecobank Research, US EIA, Global Data Ecobank Research 2012 Gabon: Opportunities & Outlook 29 November

15 Infrastructure and Logistics will be crucial Logistics performance index 2012, ranking & scores Country Rank Overall Score Customs Infrastructure International shipments Logistics competence Tracking & tracing Timeliness South Africa Tanzania Cameroon Nigeria Gabon Angola Congo, Rep Chad Sources: World Bank LPI Index, Regional trade in CEMAC hampered by continued high non-tariff barriers and infrastructural constraints Gabon overall scores marginally better than some of its regional peers such as Congo Rep, and Chad, and even Angola. Higher scores for Gabon on international shipments, logistics competence, and timeliness reflect oil sector development Lower scores for Gabon on customs and infrastructure (both crucial for underpinning development of non-oil sector) show considerable room for improvement and are investment opportunities Special Economic Zone (SEZ) underway will help ease bottlenecks Is something on the scale of the East Africa & Horn of Africa LAPSSET corridor vision required? Ecobank Research 2012 Gabon: Opportunities & Outlook 29 November

16 Ecobank in the region Ecobank Capital: Arranger on US$220m Phase II refinery upgrade and financing project for SONARA in Cameroon Ecobank Capital: Sole Issuing House for a US$216 mn, 5-year, 6% coupon sovereign bond for Chad Over the past 12 months, Ecobank has raised nearly US$300mn of funding aimed at diversifying Gabon s economy and support the agribusiness industry Unrivalled footprint in 33 African countries Local knowledge Full-service banking group Ecobank Research 2012 Gabon: Opportunities & Outlook 29 November

17 La Baie des Tortues, Pointe Denis On est ensemble! Ecobank Research 2012 Gabon: Opportunities & Outlook 29 November

18 Thank you