Fordonsindustrins satsningar på kort och lång sikt Hasse Johansson Executive Vice President, Research and Development

Fordonsindustrins satsningar på kort och lång sikt Hasse Johansson Executive Vice President, Research and Development

Haulage Construction Distribution Special purpose Scania s product ranges Network and services Intercity and coach City and intercity Engines

Commercial vehicle registrations and GDP growth in the EU CV registrations GDP growth % 2,900,000 2,700,000 2,500,000 2,300,000 2,100,000 1,900,000 1,700,000 CV registrations GDP 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 4.5 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 Source: AAA, ACEA, DG ECFIN, IMF

Goods transport in EU-27 Billion tonne-km Source: EU Commission

European emission legislation g/kwh NOx 8 g/kwh Euro 2 1996 Euro Euro 1 1992 I 1992 6 Nitrogen oxides 4 Euro 4 2006 Euro 3 2001 2 Euro 5 2009 0 Euro 6 2013 / 2014 EPA10 2012? 0 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 Particulate matter PM g/kwh

Two technologies to reach Euro 4/5/6 EGR exhaust gas recirculation SCR selective catalytic reduction Combustion optimised for low emissions Cooled exhaust dilutes intake air Colder combustion reduces NOx Combustion optimised for fuel efficiency Exhaust aftertreatment Catalyst/silencer

litres/100 km 50 45 40 Efficiency improvement European 40-tonne combination Euro level 1 2 3 4 5 6 35 30 25 ACEA ambition 20% 20 15 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Projected CO 2 -emissions from road transport in EU EU proposal: 10% reduction from 2005 level in non-ets sectors Data from TREMOVE

CO 2 -Reduction 50% 1. Logistics 2. Driver 3. Vehicle technology 4. Biofuel 5. Hybrid 50%? 1970 2000 2020 Fuel consumed per tonne-km (= CO 2 emissions)

Energy efficiency Aerodynamics Driver training Driver support Waste heat recovery Engine efficiency Auxiliary systems - Alternators - Compressors -

Improved Aerodynamics from increased vehicle length? Increase in cab length by 1 m ΔC D = -0.022 Increase in trailer length by 1 m ΔC D = -0.100 ΔC D = -0.020 1 % Fuel Economy improvement

Energy efficiency Aerodynamics Driver training Driver support Waste heat recovery Rolling resistance Engine efficiency Auxiliary systems - Alternators - Compressors -

Energy efficiency Aerodynamics Driver training Driver support Waste heat recovery Hybrid systems Rolling resistance Engine efficiency Auxiliary systems - Alternators - Compressors -

Hybrid saving potential 25% 15% 5% 3,000-5,000 litres saved per year

Degree of hybridisation Conventional powertrain Micro hybrid Mild hybrid Parallel hybrid Series hybrid All-electric drive

Roadmap biofuels and new technology Ethanol Stamp of approval Biodiesel Biogas Alcohol from cellulose Dimethyl ether Hybrids Hydrogen + fuel cell l Now Availability at a competitive price l 2020

50% more cargo 25% lower emissions Fewer vehicles How far should we go? Intermodal transport Space for fuel savings and safety