Disaster Prevention Measures in Global-Local Context 4 th World Water Forum Dr. Yoshihiko Yamashita CTI Engineering Co., Ltd Association of Japanese Consulting Engineers

Outline of Presentation Up-to to-date findings on global environment Global-local local linkage - Case study in Japan Countermeasures Structural/ Non- Structural Concluding Remarks

Up-to to-date findings on global environment Earth Simulator Reliability: Tropical cyclone off Brazil coast Good accordance (late summer 04)

Up-to to-date findings on global environment Earth Simulator Virtual Earth in 2100 Calculation Condition: CO 2 = 700ppm 960ppm: no measures, Current (2000): 280ppm Prediction: Rise in ave.. Air Temp by 4.2deg C

Up-to to-date findings on global environment Earth Simulator Virtual Earth Heat Wave Loss of human lives 2003: Paris 1,500 deaths, EU 30,000 deaths 2100:Tokyo - 11times, London - 47 times, NY 43 times Human body and city system can not function

Up-to to-date findings on global environment Earth Simulator Virtual Earth in 2100 Precipitation - Japan & China: South North (aridification( aridification) - Frequent locally concentrated heavy rains

Up-to to-date findings on global environment Earth Simulator Virtual Earth in 2100 Tropical cyclone - Japan: Aug. 2096, strongest one - Metro NY: Hurricane Trans. Study: loss unpredictable - Bangladesh: 80% of people have no shelter 2096

Up-to to-date findings on global environment Earth Simulator Virtual Earth in 2100 Dengue fever: 2005; 2.5 billion 2100: 5.2 billion North pole: Aug. 2070, no ice Amazon: 2/3 of Amazon river basin turn into desert Rising of sea level: Max.88 cm 2.6 million refugees Amazon: 2005 Amazon:2100

Up-to to-date findings on global environment Global Warming Earth Summit, Montreal, Nov. 2005 Objectives To find new framework after Kyoto Protocol Conclusion Objectives failed, but agreed to continue dialogue Epilogue Do we have wisdom to save earth? Temperature keeps on rising even at time of arguments. Crisis of human being is steadily approaching

Global-local local linkage - Case study in Japan Heavy rainfall in Niigata, 2004 In 2004, Sea surface temp. in south was high caused many heavy rains 423mm/d at Tochio,, largest since 1935 Global change affected local environment Sea Surface temp, 2004 Dist. of rain obs. Stations & Daily total precipitation, 7/13/05 Rain obs sta: Niigata, 248 sta 作 成 :( 株 ) 総 合 防 災 システム 研 究 所 資 料 : 河 川 局 平 成 16 年 7 月 新 潟 福 島 豪 雨 災 害 資 料 速 報 気 象 庁 災 害 時 気 象 速 報 平 成 16 年 7 月 新 潟 福 島 及 び 福 井 豪 雨

Structural and Non-Structural Flood Control Measures Structural Measures Dam Construction Improvement of River Function Levee, Diversion Channel, Dredging, Small Reservoir Run-off Detention in River Basin Drainage/ Infiltration Facility Non-Structural Measures Public Awareness of Hazard Map Forecasting/Warning and Evacuation Flood Fighting and Zoning

Cross Section Photo image

Ohkouzu Diversion Channel The Echigo Plains suffered devastating damage from frequent flooding The Mainstream Weir and the Deversion Channel Weir jointly control the flow of the Shinano River Construction of the Ohkouzu Diversion Channel to allow excessive water to directly flow to the sea

Shinano River and Niigata City Niigata City Japan Sea Nakanokuch iriver Shinano River Ohkouzu Diversion Channel Shinano River

Structural Measure Structural Measure Small Reservoir for Inundation Kurigaoka Inundation Reservoir

Structural Measures-Drainage Facilities Sewer Networks and Underground Control Reservoir Image of Underground Control Reservoir

Structural Measures Beneficial use of sewer network Before improve network After improve network Reduce flooding area Image of sewer network If the rain is small, we get huge reservoir

Beneficial use of sewer network (Control pump start/stop by IT) Real time monitoring and control system Image of Real Time Control System CPU Radar rain gauge Rain gauge Control system optical fiber cable Pumping station Storm pump River Gate

Beneficial use of sewer network RTC System (Monitoring)

Beneficial use of sewer network (Model Verification) L BRANCHES - 11-9-2001 01 Discharge m3/s [m] 0.0 WATER LEVEL BRANCHES - 11-9-2001 01:04 0911m1v5.prf Discharge 8.765 13.714 10.229 [m] 0.0 m3/s -5.0-5.0-10.0-10.0-15.0-15.0 0.0 500.0 1000.0 [m] 0.0 1000.0 2000.0 3000.0 4000.0 5000.0 6000.0 7000.0 [m] WATER LEVEL BRANCHES - 11-9-2001 01:04 0911m1v5.prf Discharge 7.784 9.172 9.641 11.324 9.888 9.503 74.278 [m] m3/s 0.0-5.0-10.0-15.0-20.0 0.0 1000.0 2000.0 3000.0 4000.0 5000.0 6000.0 7000.0 8000.0 9000.0 10000.0 11000.0 [m] Profile of Water level (Sewer network)

Beneficial use of sewer network (Effect of operation by RTC) Overflow volume from Pump station to River (m 3 /s) Effect of RTC operation present RTC 20mm< 30mm< 50mm< Total Rainfall

Non-Structural Measures Public Awareness of Hazard Map Forecasting/Warning and Evacuation Flood Fighting Legislative Support - Enforcement of Law, Land Use, Zoning

Non-Structural Measures Public Awareness & Hazard Map Fukuyama City, Hiroshima Prefecture Legend 5m> Area 2m<h<5m Area 1m<h<2m Area 0.5m<h<1m Area H<0.5m Area refuge shelter City office and Branch Kindergarten and Junior High School High School and University Public Housing

Non-Structural Measures Forecasting and Warning Image of Warning system water-level gaging station Flood Fighting Act refuge shelter rainfall gauging station Warning Flood forecasting Local government evacuation order underground space industrial television set

Global Flood Alert System (GFAS) Rainfall information Observation Satellite (TRMM/GPM) Heavy rain around the Upstream of River Around the downstream of river 石 塘 樋 門 Global Rainfall Map FLOOD ALERT Grand Stations Raw Data Organizations in Charge of Meteorology and Disaster Prevention Data Processing System Data for climate forecasts (real time/near real time data) 3-hour global precipitation map (real time/near real time data) On-Line Secretariat of IFNet Rainfall Prediction Flood Prediction

Non-Structural Measures Flood Fighting Abukuma River 27-28/08/1998 Photo Image of Flood fighting

Point Disaster Measures Basic Law Basic, most important and comprehensive disaster mitigation-related law in Japan Established as a comprehensive disaster mitigation and relief law through the experience of Isewan-Typhoon in 1961 All the disaster mitigation measures are taken within this framework. Five Purposes 1. Stipulation of responsibilities demarcation among relevant organizations 2. Promotion of effective administrative system in an integrated manner 3. Promotion of planned framework in disaster mitigation and relief administration 4. Financial assistance to seriously affected area 5. Measures on urgent relief to disaster victims

Concluding Remarks Key Points for Disaster Prevention Natural disaster should be dealt with global-local local linkage and in a comprehensive manner Most effective and essential countermeasures against natural disasters are to reduce the source of disaster, namely the amount of CO 2. Sustainable and safe water supply can be realized when they are fully supported by structural and non-structural disaster prevention measures. More professional service by the consulting engineers should be introduced for the disaster prevention measures, and more collaboration should be made among the concerned agencies or organizations such central government, local governments, communities, financing agencies, NGOs and volunteers. (It can be said that various disaster prevention works be linked in a comprehensive manner.)

Thank you!! Presenter expresses his gratitude to Dr. Yoshiyuki Kamibayashi and Dr. Kazumasa Ito for valuable advices and providing relevant information for this presentation. March 17, 2006