Grondstoffen, nationalisme en geopolitiek Kansen en bedreigingen voor economie en industrie Lange Voorhout 16 2514 EE The Hague The Netherlands Email: info@hcss.nl Website: www.hcss.nl
Exponential Population Growth Population by 2050 9 billion GDP from US$35 to 72 trillion by 2030 Water demand to increase 30% by 2030 Energy demand doubled by 2030 Cereal demand: + 67% by 2050 Land deficit by 2050 200 million ha GHG emissions decrease 50-80% by 2050
Certain Global Trends (2008, 2010, 2012, 2014) national intelligence council Uncertain Individual empowerment Shift power to networks & coalitions Emerging informal Groupings Powershift towards non-state actors Arc of instability will narrow Population growth 8.3 billion 2030) Aging, Youth bulges (become dangerous) Urbanization Volume urban construction 2x 40 yrs Half world population lives in waterstressed areas Demand for resources increases Food 30%, water 40%, energy 50% Collaboration world community Shocks, discontinuities & Crisis Government adaptability uncertain Interstate & Intrastate conflicts Speed & impact climate change difficult to judge Speed of transition toward sustainable energy, economic productivity
Systemic changes The emergence of non-western countries can lead to: Instability, because multipolarity not stable per definition Declining shaping power of the West, weaker legal framework and effectiveness of institutions More black holes in (regions of) failed states Growing instability as consequence of struggle over minerals, energy and effects of climate change. Soft power of China: autocratic, resource rich countries and against resource poor democracies How will emerging powers handle geopolitical aspects of resources, how will the West react and what is consequence for local and regional stability?
Scarcity: source of conflicts Angola (1975-2002): oil, diamond DRC (1996-?): copper, coltan, diamond, cobalt, wood, tin Congo (1997-?): oil Ivory Coast (2002-2007): diamond, cacao, cotton Liberia (1989-2003): wood, diamond, iron, palm oil, cacao, coffee, rubber, gold Senegal: wood, cashew nuts Sierra Leone (1991-2000), diamond, cacao, coffee Sudan (1983-2005): oil Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands: Oil/Gas, Fishery, REE dispute Examples: Africa according to UNEP
Why commodities matter again Intense politicization and securitization of commodity markets Commodities as key strategic issue in a multipolar world Emerging nexus of environmental, economic & security policy
Critical Raw Materials for the EU For NL also Gold and Phosphate ore Source: EC, DG Enterprise and Industry Critical Raw Materials for the EU Brussels, 2010.
EU 14 Critical Metals
Simplified supply chain for electronics Mine Trader Smelter Component producer Contract manufacturer / assembly End-user Typically 7+ tiers between mine and end-user
Conflict Minerals Supply Chain Smelter is at key point in supply chain to enforce responsible purchasing 11
Iron Ore Exploration Activities
China s 12 th 5 year plan 2011-2015 2 nd economy, soon 1st Develop China s western regions Protect the environment and improve energy efficiency Continue transitioning to an economy driven by domestic consumption instead of experts Improve the lives of Chinese citizens Develop 7 priority industries 2%>8% GDP by 2015 (New energy, energy conservation and environmental protection, biotechnology, new materials, new IT, high-end equipment manufacturing, clean energy vehicles)
Targets China s 12 th 5 year plan 2011-2015 Annual growth 7% GDP Increase urbanisation 47,5% > 51,5% Increase service sector 43% > 47% GDP Increase spending R&D 2,2% GDP Hold inflation below 4% per year Increase non-fossil fuels to 11,4% Reduce energy per unit of GDP to 16% Reduce C0 2 emission per unit GDP to 17% Increase forest coverage by 21,66% Decrease pollutants COD and sulfur dioxide by *% each
Sovereign Wealth Funds
Buying Power Purchasing minerals & energy concessions Land purchases for agriculture Purchasing and initiating trading & exchange platforms London Metal Exchange: sold in June 2012 to Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing (HKEx). Traded at a price 180 times its annual earnings (1,4 B$) Biggest sponsor: China Development Bank, a policy bank
Bezien vanuit Nederlands Buitenlands en Economisch beleid De bevordering van: Samenwerking in EU verband Betrek beleid rond o.a. industrie, innovatie, grondstofefficiëntie, handel, concurrentie, ontwikkelingssamenwerking, landbouw, hernieuwbare energie en klimaat Samenwerking met grondstoffen en halffabricaat producerende landen (creëer nieuwe interdependenties) Bevorder beleid gericht op reciprociteit Internationale transparantie en legale handel Onderzoek naar vraagreductie, substitutie en gedrag (3R)
The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies J.G.M. (Michel) Rademaker MTL Deputy Director, Market and Operations T: +31 70 3184842 E: michelrademaker@hcss.nl M: +31 6 24686023 hcssnl Linkedin Facebook Visiting and Postal Address: Lange Voorhout 16, 2514 EE Den Haag, The Netherlands