Executive Management Conference for Latin America and the Caribbean Miami, Feb 2-4, 2005 Topic: Strategic Port Planning in the 21 st Century Focus: The Caribbean Basin By: Jorgen Steving VP Regional Operations, Maersk Sealand, Madison, NJ.
Agenda Markets / Growth / Capacities / Utilization Opportunities and challenges for T/S ports/terminals Key T/S terminals/ports Carriers selection criteria for T/S ports Maersk Sealand s Caribbean transhipments Future 2
Caribbean Basin
2004 Market Puerto Rico, Cartagena, Panama (Caribbean coast), Jamaica, Dominican Republic, Bahamas, Trinidad. Total Market: 8.1 million TEUs (2.4% of global market) - Growth 1995-2003: 7.8% p.a. - Est. Future Growth: 6.3% p.a. Transhipment Market: 4.1 million TEUs (50% of Total Market) - Growth 1998-2003: 9.6% p.a. - Est. Future Growth: 6.8% p.a. 2015 Forecast - Total Market: Approx 16 million TEUs (+96%) - Transhipment Market: Approx 8.4 million TEUs (+104%) Source: Various public/industry and in-house sources. 4
2004 : Volume / Capacity / Utilization Volume: 8.1 million TEUs (Local + T/S) Capacity: 12.9 million TEUs (86% PAN/PR/DR/FPO) Utilization: 63% Transhipment Volume ( 000 TEU) / Market Shares: Country Volume Market Share Panama (Carib) 1,365 34% Bahamas* 1,031 25% Jamaica 881 22% Puerto Rico 242 6% Cartagena 210 5% Trinidad 199 5% Cuba 67 2% Dominican Rep* 62 2% *Some volume may have shifted from Bahamas to Dominican Republic 5
Volume/Capacity/Utilization : Future developments 2012: Total forecasted volume of 13 million+ TEUs will exceed present capacity. Various planned developments/projects, however, are expected to increase capacity to approx 17.5 million TEUs (+47%). 2015: Based on forecasted demand and projected total capacity, utilization factor will reach 90%. 6
Opportunities & Challenges for Transhipment Ports/Terminals Forecasts for growth support expansions and additional investments in the Caribbean Basin. Opportunities for all to grow, although to varying degrees. Must offer good infrastructure, reasonable cost picture and labor stability. Will always, however, depend on major lines network configurations and other individual criteria, thus costs are not necessarily the decisive factor. The larger the local market, the better. Transhipment volume can move; local market is captive. Location close to main carriers routes is important. Will there be too many T/S ports? 7
Key T/S Ports : A few observations Now and in the future Caribbean Coast of Panama Location, infrastructure, quality of operation and labor is excellent; will continue to grow. Caucedo Commenced operations in 2004 and no doubt shows good potential to develop well. Kingston First one to attract significant T/S. Has been successful and will remain a major factor. Freeport Good location and infrastructure, close to the U.S., well-known problems in 2003/2004, which are now being overcome. 8
Key T/S Ports : Now and in the future (continued) Cartagena Good future potential to attract volume from some network configurations. Port of Americas To be developed. Labor costs? Jones Act? Trinidad / Puerto Cabello Minor volumes. Cuba Due to location it may become a major factor in the future. Balboa Major transhipment operation (and expanding) on Pacific coast of Panama. Will impact Caribbean Basin as well. Will continue to GROW! 9
Carriers Selection of T/S ports Primary Criteria Location versus deployment network. Closeness to main strings North/South and East/West. Local market. Infrastructure: Berths Cranes Terminal Equipment Yard space Water depth Terminal system Expansion opportunities. 10
Carriers Selection of T/S ports Primary Criteria (continued) Labor quality / stability. Costs Always important, but not necessarily decisive if other criteria met. Productivity. Quality of Management. Berth and crane guarantees to meet demand. Country and political risks. 11
Maersk Sealand s Caribbean Transhipment Operation Primary Hub: Manzanillo, Panama. Why: Several east/west and north/south main lines transit the Panama Canal. Numerous smaller services/feeders cover Caribbean Basin, U.S. Gulf and North Coast of South America. All services interconnect. Balboa and Panama Canal railroad offers additional support and further add to Manzanillo s attractiveness, including enhanced flexibility. Manzanillo meets other primary selection criteria, including: Excellent infrastructure. Expansion opportunities. High quality of management. Reliable and stable labor environment. Local market. Alternatives: Available, however, costs of deviation (tonnage, bunkers, less buffer-time, ripple effect through global network) often outweigh potentially lower T/S costs elsewhere. 12
Looking to the Future T/S volume remains dynamic and available for services/ports that can compete and meet main criteria. All-water services may increase to some areas now served via T/S, but likely not to a major extent (small markets). Panama Canal expansion Additional opportunities? Cuba? other new developments? Political and economic developments. Jones Act? 13
Thank You