The Impact of a Canal through Nicaragua

Transcription

1 From Mega Ships To Mega Alliances: Who Benefits? The Impact of a Canal through Nicaragua Rodolfo Sabonge Consultant/Logitrans Advisory Services, Corp. Cartagena, Colombia Oct. 15, 2014

2 LOGITRANS ADVISORY SERVICES, Corp. Strategic and Master Planning Competitive Intelligence Scenario Planning Demand and Market Studies Economic Impact Studies Project Management (PM Certified) Financial / Demand Model Development Environmental Impact Studies Risk Analysis

3 AGENDA Historical Background / HKND Concession International Trade/Shipping Trends Potential Impact of a Canal through Nicaragua

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5 Impact of the Panama and Suez Canals Fuente: R.D. Knowles (2005) "Transport Shaping Space", Fleming Lecture in Transportation Geography, AAG Annual Meeting, Denver, Colorado

6 AGENDA Historical Background / HKND Concession

7 President Bolaños announces a study to build the Canal, stating that the Panama Canal is already reaching capacity. Claiming that the Panama Canal cannot be expanded because of water limitations. June 2013: The Nicaraguan Congress approves a law to authorize a concession to build the Canal. June 13: The Government approves the concession (Master Concession Agreement) to the Hong Kong Nicaragua Development Group (HKND) July 3, 2012, the Nicaraguan Congress approves LAW 800 through which it creates the Autoridad del Gran Canal Interoceánico de Nicaragua ad its legal framework. July 27: Nicaragua contracts Royal HaskoningDHV to study the feasibility of the Project. September 26: President Ortega and HKND sign MOU in which HKND commits to finance and build the Canal and Develop other projects.

8 The agreement formally granted the sole rights to the HKND Group to plan, design, construct and thereafter to operate and manage the Nicaragua Grand Canal and other related projects, including ports, a free trade zone, an international airport and other infrastructure development projects. The integrated Nicaragua Grand Canal project will include the following 6 sub projects: Canal (including locks), 2 Ports, a Free Trade Zone, Tourism Resorts, an International Airport and several roads. In addition, there will be construction of a power station, cement factory, steel factory and other related facilities to ensure the successful completion of the canal within 5 years.

9 Concession The exclusive right, authority and authorisation to (directly or indirectly): a) Develop and Operate such Sub Project; (b) use and receive any and all benefits (whether economic or otherwise) (c) set (subject to the Laws) and collect (for its own account) tolls, tariffs, fees, rents (d) raise from domestic and any foreign sources Sub Project Financing for such Sub Project, as well as equity and quasi equity investments from any domestic and foreign public, private and governmental sources,

10 Concession Period (i) commences on the Effective Date; and (ii) ends on the date which falls fifty (50) years (plus any extension arising by operation of Clause 5.2(d)) after the occurrence of the earlier to occur of (x) the Commercial Operations Date for the Wet Canal Project, and (y) the Final Commercial Operations Date. (c) With respect to each Concession: (i) the Commission hereby grants to the relevant Sponsor the option, exercisable in the absolute discretion of such Sponsor, to extend the Initial Concession Period by a further fifty (50) year period (such option,

11 July 2013

12 The Project includes the construction of two Deep water ports, one at the Pacific entrance of the Canal (Brito approx 2M TEU capacity), and another at the Atlantic entrance (Punta Aguila approx 2.6M TEU capacity)

13 The Nicaragua Project To begin in December 2014 ($110M already spent in studies) Technically Feasible Big question Economic/Financial/Environmental/Social Feasibility Approx. 263 km long between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans Estimated Cost: &50B (more like $65 70 B) Atlanta Lake would be 32 m above sea level Chamber length 466 mts. Max ship length 400 mts Chamber width 64 mts. Max ship beam 59 mts. Max draft 23 mts. TFW (Depth mts???) Dry Bulk Carriers 400 DWT??? Tankers 350 DWT??? Containerships 25,000 TEU???

14 To build the Canal, a new artificial lake would have to be created (Lake Atlanta), with a 395KM2 (Gatun Lake has 425 KM2), and it s level would be the same as that of the Lake Nicaragua.

15 There are plans to build a Free Zone and an airport close to Rivas

16 The Free Zone would include an industrial processing zone of around 7.87 KM2, and an urban develpment of around 15Km2 to house some 140K people

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18 AGENDA Historical Background / HKND Concession International Trade / Shipping Trends

19 Drivers - Trade, Maritime Transport, Ports ECONOMIC ACTIVITY LOCATION (CONTROL) OF NATURAL RESOURCES DEMOGRAPHICS TRADE SHIPPING, PORTS, LOGISTICS TECHNOLOGY GEOGRAPHY

20 SHIPPING TRENDS

21 Lower Newbuilding Prices and More Efficient Built in 2008 Built in 2013 Price: USD170M Price: USD106M Fuel Consumption: 151 T/day Fuel Consumption: 106 T/day

22 This means that Built in 2008 Built in 2013 Cost per TEU: USD12,355 Capital Costo: USD43,760/day Fuel Cost: USD90,600/day Cost per TEU: USD7,681 Capital Cost: USD27,205/day Fuel Cost: USD63,600/day

23 Economies and Diseconomies of Scale Source: Jean-Paul Rodrigue is Professor at the Department of Global Studies and Geography at Hofstra University, New York.

24 Source: Audun Grimstad DNV 2013

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28 AGENDA Historical Background / HKND Concession International Trade/Shipping Trends Potential Impact of a Canal through Nicaragua

29 Yokohama Busan Shanghai Hong Kong Puertos de Origen Shanghai Busan Yokohama Hong Kong Distance Table Panama Canal vs. Nicaragua Comparación de Distancias Panamá Nicaragua Diferencia Puerto de Destino Distancia* Días** Distancia* Días** Distancia* Días** NY 10, , Savannah 10, , Miami 9, , NY 10, , Savannah 9, , Miami 9, , NY 9, , Savannah 9, , Miami 8, , New York NY 11, , Savannah 10, , Savannah -0.3 Miami 10, , Miami Datos relevantes Altura del istmo de Rivas Elevación del lago de Nicaragua Profundidad promedio del lago 185 pies 107 pies 35 pies Corinto Manzanillo Balboa *Millas náuticas, incluye distancia en Canal (Panamá 43 y Nicaragua 154 millas náuticas) **Velocidad de 18 nudos, 0.7 días de tránsito por Panamá y 2.5 días de tránsito por Nicaragua Fuente: ACP-MEMN/sea-distances table

30 Distance Table Panama Canal vs. Nicaragua Puertos de Origen Valparaíso Guayaquil Comparación de Distancias Puerto de Destino Panamá Nicaragua Diferencia Distancia* Días** Distancia* Días** Distancia* Días** NY 4, , Houston 4, , NY 2, , Houston 2, , *Millas náuticas, incluye distancia en Canal (Panamá 43 y Nicaragua 154 millas náuticas) **Velocidad de 18 nudos, 0.7 días de tránsito por Panamá y 2.5 días de tránsito por Nicaragua Fuente: ACP-MEMN/sea-distances table

31 Características Generales Longitud Ancho Profundidad Tiempo de recorrido Altura máxima sobre el nivel del mar Esclusas Largo Ancho Profundidad Número de esclusas Niveles en cada esclusa Buques Manga Eslora Calado Tamaño máximo Cuadro Comparativo Canal de Nicaragua 286 Km 60 / 114 m* 22 m 26 hrs. 32 m 466 m 64 m 34 m m 400 m 20 m 250,000 dwt Canal de Panamá Ampliado 80 Km >192 m 15.5 m 8-10 hrs m 427 m 55 m 18.3 m m 366 m 15 m 170,000 dwt Financiera Costo de Inversión U$ 40,000 millones** U$ 5,250 millones *60 metros cuando es una sola vía y 114 metros cuando es doble **Según datos del 2013

32 Expanded Panama Canal Dimensions Nicaragua Canal Conceptual Design Dimensions 59m (193)* 23 m (75 ) 64m (209 ) * Estimated

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35 WHY NEARSHORING? Fuente: Compair Data, Octubre 2010

36 Cuba could be a Game Changer New Mariel Terminal / Santiago Investment Near Sourcing with a priviledged geographic location relative to the U.S. and Europe Pending lifting of the embargo it could become the logistics and manufacturing center. It could also have significant impact on tourism

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40 From Mega Ships To Mega Alliances: Who Benefits? The Impact of a Canal through Nicaragua Rodolfo Sabonge Consultant/Logitrans Advisory Services, Corp. Cartagena, Colombia Oct. 15, 2014