Possible consequences of a volcanic crisis in southern Italy Carolina Garcia PhD Student Università di Milano Bicocca Content Volcanic Products Italian Volcanoes Principal Active Italian Volcanoes Campi Flegrei Etna Stromboli Vesuvio Conclusions
Volcanic Products: potentially dangerous - Tephra fall acid rain - Bombs - blocks - Pyroclastic flow - Lahar mud and debris flow - Lava flow - Landslides (debris avalanches) - Gass emission (fumaroles) UCL, 2009 Italian Volcanoes Volcanoes < 2 Ma Extinct Underwater Active (including quiescent)
Vulcano: - Last event 1888 - Moderate explosions with blocks - Quiescent state - 15 000 tourists in summer Active Volcanoes Ischia: - Last event 1302, lava flows -Surface movements landslides tsunamis -Earthquakes: 1881 (129 deaths); 1883 (2313 deaths) Pantelleria: Campi Flegrei Soddu, 2009 - Last eruption (last 1891) - CO 2 degassing Vulcano - Hazard crater lake (Specchio di Venere) - Recent deformation Vesuvio Stromboli Uni Roma3 Pantelleria Etna INGV Uni Roma3 ETNA Very active volcano Continuously erupting Bender, 2009
Etna Evolution 500 000 years ago until present ISAT, 2006 Double eruption (2001) Hypothesis of a contemporary rise of magma in two conduits Fissure eruption (2003) Etna s Volcanic Hazards Lava flows (continous) - Lava fountains - Usually affects limited areas around the vent. Except 2003 close to Nicolosi INGV
Eruptions - Open conduit: usually eruptions of low intensity Marco Tomasello Many lateral eruptions High intensity eruption low probability Last big eruption 1669, (partial destruction of Catania) - Degassing (also continuous) - Tephra fall
Superficial Seismicity Piano protezione civile http://sit.protezionecivilesicilia.it sit.protezionecivilesicilia.it/opcm 3278/ http://webgis.protezionecivilesicilia.it webgis.protezionecivilesicilia.it/m swebgis/
Suddivisione del territorio La metodologia
Vulnerabilità Esposizione
Calcolo del rischio Mappa del rischio
Pericolosità Danneggiamento potenziale
Le procedure INDICATORI DI EVENTO E RISPOSTA DI PROTEZIONE CIVILE INDICATORI DI EVENTO - MONITORAGGIO RISPOSTA DI PROTEZIONE CIVILE o Quiete Operativa o Allerta» Attenzione» Preallarme» Allarme Allerta
Preallarme Allarme
MODELLO D INTERVENTO Il raggiungimento delle fasi di allerta prevede l immediata attivazione di una serie di procedure, precisamente: Il Prefetto, informato dall I.N.G.V. del raggiungimento delle soglie di allerta, si avvale delle strutture a sua disposizione che sono: CCS (Centro Coordinamento Soccorsi); Sala Operativa della Prefettura; COM. STROMBOLI
Last 13,000 yrs: -Several growth periods - 4 main collapses of the NW flank From Tibaldi (2001) Volcanic Hazards Strombolian Eruption - Bombs - rocks
Rolling Blocks Boulder n. 25, with vegetation HOUSES
Volcanic Hazards Strombolian Eruption - Ash and gases Gabriel Giuffrida Volcanic Hazards Strombolian Eruption - Lava fountains Swiss educ
Volcanic Hazards Tsunamis Volcanic Hazards - Tsunamis Sciara del Fuoco December 30th 2002 Sciara del Fuoco Gaetano Fancello Protezione Civile, 2006
Landslide Tsunami, Dec 2002 Photo Philippe Guillemin Photo Philippe Guillemin Tsunami Heights
Swiss educ Hazards - Landslides lateral failure
LITHOTECHNICAL SECTION LB B P HAZARD - Massive Landslide Water- Magma Interaction
Thin rock layer Magmatic chamber close to the surface Unstable zone
Contact of magma - water Freato-magmatic eruption
Paroxysmal Eruption Worst Case Escenario
Monitoring Network Emergency plans for Tsunami for Eruption
Mitigation Works Tsunamis Rock Falls
Campania More than 3 Ma hab. exposed (800.000 in high risk) Costa e Martini, 2009 CAMPI FLEGREI campi ardenti field of fire
Volcanic Structure No central chamber eruption could start anywhere INGV ~ 1.5 million people live within the caldera (350,000 in the most active portion) Alexander, 2006 Volcanic History Last eruption AD 1538 Latest unrest episodes: - Several seismic crisis - 1970-1972 - 1982-1984: 10 000 earthquakes temporary evacuation of Pozzuoli - 1987 and 1989: earthquakes and uplift in Solfarata - Continuous uplift (3.5 m in Pozzuoli) Possible future eruption (Explosive index VEI 3 to 5 subplinian to plinian) High volcanic hazard + intense urbanization EXTREMELY HIGH RISK UniRoma3
Emergency Plan: 2 possible scenarios 1538 BC and 4000 BC (Agnano Montespina) Agnano-Monte Spina Eruption Risk Map for Piroclastic Flows ISAT, 2006 Yellow zone: pyroclastic flows; lines: ash fall Protezione Civile, 2006 Red zone -Pyroclastic flows Yellow Zone - Tephra fall Risk Microzonification Map, Flegrea Area Based on AD 1538 eruption Really High Risk: Pozzuoli and Napoli Difficult prediction: crisis don t always precede an eruption (ex. 1980-1982) Incorrect crisis management - General panic - Victims - Relocation of 40 000 people into incorrect zones (also high risk)
VESUVIO The dormant Giant INGV > 800 000 people in high risk Costa e Martini, 2009
Increasing urbanization Alberico et al., 2004
Eruption 79 A.D. -Plinian eruption: VEI 5 (really strong - catastrophic) Eruption 1631 Sub plinian eruption: VEI 3-4 (strong -violent)
Eruption 1906 Eruption 1944 Strombolian or vulcanian: VEI 2 (moderate-explosive) Costa e Martini, 2009 Eruption 1944 Deposits distribution Osservatorio Vesuviano, 2006 Osservatorio Vesuviano, 2006
Eruption 1944 The Avellino Eruption (1660 BC) Twice as powerfull as AD 79 Pyroclastic flows travelling up to 15 km from vent; ; 3 m deep in Naples area Plinian to Ultraplinian: VEI 6 (really strong-paroxistic)
Previous eruptions: -1944 Strombolian o vulcanian: VEI 2 (moderate-explosive) -1631 Sub plinian: VEI 3-4 (strong -violent) -79 AC Pompei - Plinian: VEI 5 (really strong - catastrophic) -2000 BC Avellino Eruption Plinian to Ultraplinian: VEI 6 (really strong-paroxistic) Previous plinian eruptions (last 25 ka BP) Tephra deposits Pyroclastic Flows Rolandi, 2010
Sarno Disaster,, May 5, 1998 Lahar 160 deaths 335 Millions Euro Associated hazards 30 h of heavy rain (100-180 mm) on air fall deposits debris flows (Pareschi et al., 2000) Cumulative isopachs of air-fall deposits La citta di Salerno, 2008 First Italian National emergency planning Statistical Model (based on repose time) 99% Prob. of Sub-Plinian Eruption or less, VEI 3-4 EMERGENCY PLAN Like in 1631 A.D. 1% Plinian 30% Subplinean 69% Strombolian
Evoluzione del piano 1991 Prima Commissione - linee guida per la valutazione del rischio connesso ad un eruzione in area Vesuviana 1993 Seconda Commissione - Piano nazionale di emergenza per l area l vesuviana 1995 Prima versione del Piano nazionale di emergenza 2001 Primo aggiornamento del Piano 2003 Nomina dell attuale Commissione per l aggiornamento continuo del Piano The Hazard Zones (medium scale scenario) Dipartimento della Protezione Civile
Most dangerous zone (~( 200 km 2 ) neighbouring the volcano. Possibly affected by: - pyroclastic flows - mudflows THE RED ZONE - thick accumulation of fallout deposits (bombs, lapilli and ash) Includes 18 municipalities, ~ 600,000 people Dipartimento della Protezione Civile Possibly affected by fallout ash and lapilli (~ 1100 km2) THE YELLOW ZONE Intensity of damage depends on: - height of the eruptive column - direction of the high winds Includes 96 municipalities (Napoli Province) 1,100,000 hab. Dipartimento della Protezione Civile
THE BLUE ZONE inside yellow Mudflows and floods associated with the eruption. 14 municipalities with 180,000 people. Dipartimento della Protezione Civile Monitoring Center Osservatorio Vesuviano 24/7 surveillance with Multiple monitoring techniques Automatic posting on the web
THE STRATEGY Yellow Zone Main hazards associated with tephra fallout : - roofs collapse, - traffic disruption and - crops damage Only at the beginning of the eruption, could be possible to determine most affected area. Only affected people (~( 200,000) will be evacuated and accommodated in Campania. THE STRATEGY Red Zone Due to velocity and destructive power of pyroclastic flows, to avoid a disaster the red zone population will need to TOTALLY EVACUATE the area BEFORE the eruption. 7 days needed to evacuate Dipartimento della Protezione Civile
Alert Levels Dipartimento della Protezione Civile Expected weeks or months before a large eruption: - Deformation - Uplift of the volcanic edifice - Anomalous seismicity - Variations in the gravimetric, magnetic, and electric fields - Variations in chemical composition in gas and water Increase of: - Gases emission - Temperature Precursor Phenomena
PLAN: Twinning Send people outside of the Campania region, twinning merging Vesuvian municipalities and Italian regions together. Dipartimento della Protezione Civile High levels of uncertainty No forecasting capability is realistic Style of future eruption?.. > Sub-plinian plinian? Volcanological limits of the flow hazard zone coincide with municipality limits It s s necessary to consider really little warning (<1 week) Different wind directions BUT... Rolandi, 2010
What to do to reduce the risk? -To clear the red zone (Evacuation exercise Somma Vesuvio Mesimex 2006: 2000 people/5 days) - Prepare the population - It s fundamental perform educational campaigns to exposed population to explain: - volcanic risks - possible false alarms - uncertainty Massive exodus Epilogue Photo: PNAS
Thank you! Grazie Further information at: http://www.ov.ingv.it Protezione Civile Università Roma 3 J.M.W. Turner. Vesuvius in Eruption. Watercolor and scraping out. 1817. 111/4 x 155/8(286 X 397 mm.). The British Art Center, New Haven, CT.