How much of a game-changer is LTE? Technology developments and regulatory implications Presentation for the Latin America Spectrum Conference 2012 Amit Nagpal 25 October 2012
2 How do we resolve the capacity crunch? Global mobile data traffic forecast Decoupling of traffic from revenues Source: Cisco, 2012 Source: Light Reading
3 Spectrum is part of (but not the only) answer Deployment of next generation more spectrally efficient technologies (e.g. HSPA+/LTE) Acquisition of new frequencies and re-farming of existing bands Off-loading of traffic onto fixed networks (WiFi and femtocells) Deployment of new sites Source: Vodafone
4 LTE provides significant performance improvements LTE/HSPA+ carrier performance Channel bandwidth LTE-Advanced (5 2x20MHz) LTE 2x20MHz LTE 2x15MHz LTE 2x10MHz DC-HSPA+ 2x10MHz LTE 2x5MHz HSPA+ 2x5MHz Peak data rate (downlink) 3000Mbps 150Mbps 112.5Mbps 75Mbps 42Mbps 37Mbps 21Mbps Source: Huawei
5 LTE makes more efficient use of available spectrum Theoretical increase in spectral efficiency Real-world estimate (taking account of network configurations, technology take-up by consumers etc) Three-fold improvement between 2011 and 2016 (CAGR of 25%) Source: Real Wireless
6 Wider channels present a challenge for regulators The amounts of low frequency spectrum available for award are limited (e.g. 2x30MHz of spectrum in European digital dividend band) Is it better to have more competing network infrastructures each making less efficient use of the spectrum (smaller channel widths) or to have fewer competing infrastructures but with each operator making more efficient use of the spectrum? 20MHz channel 10MHz channel 15MHz channel 10MHz channel 10MHz channel 15MHz channel 10MHz channel Alternative options for assignment of 60MHz of spectrum (examples) 5MHz channel 5MHz channel 10MHz channel 10MHz channel
7 Frequency sharing between operators is one possibility ARCEP in France is allowing operators to share frequencies in order to provide high speed services to rural communities Maintains the benefit of three competing infrastructure players in urban areas Country Denmark France Ireland Frequency sharing information Not mandated but allowed if negotiated commercially (providing approval is granted by the regulatory authority) Operators holding the lower 20MHz of the 800MHz band are mandated to share frequencies when approached under reasonable commercial terms. Frequency sharing is only permitted to cover priority roll out zones sparsely populated areas (18% pop. in 63% area) Considered by the regulator and competition authority on a case by case basis
8 Carrier Aggregation Technology provides a solution What is carrier aggregation? With the development of LTE towards LTE-Advanced, operators will be able to virtually aggregate their spectrum holdings in order to deploy a larger LTE carrier This will allow operators to deploy LTE at higher peak rates, without having to own contiguous spectrum AT&T to aggregate acquired spectrum In 2011, AT&T acquired Qualcomm s unpaired 700MHz spectrum holdings AT&T is planning on aggregating the spectrum with its existing AWS (1700/2100MHz) band in order to increase the speed offered over its current LTE network AT&T is pushing for carrier aggregation utilising LTE rather than waiting for LTE-Advanced technologies and is aiming to deploy compatible networks from 2014 700MHz 2x10MHz Actual carrier LTE carrier aggregation 2x20MHz Virtual carrier 850MHz 2x10MHz Actual carrier Note: Carrier aggregation technologies can also be used to aggregate non-contiguous spectrum blocks within the same frequency band Carrier Aggregation Technology (CAT) is a central component of LTE Advanced (Release 10) CAT will allow up to 5 2x20MHz channels to be combined to offer data rates of up to 3Gbps
9 Combining frequency sharing and CAT may be required The European Union has a target to provide minimum 30Mbps broadband to 100% of households by 2020 A recent presentation by Nokia Siemens Networks suggested this could be achieved using LTE-Advanced with carrier aggregation of all the spectrum in the 700MHz and 800MHz bands Source: Bringing Mobile Broadband to Rural Areas, presentation by Ulrich Rehfuess, Head of Spectrum Policy and Regulation, Nokia Siemens Networks, presented at WIK Mobile broadband Competitive dynamics and policy implications conference, 11-12 September 2012
10 Final question. Is the provision of telecoms network infrastructure heading back to being a monopoly business?
11 Annex A.1 Introduction to Aetha Consulting
12 Aetha Consulting Trusted advisor to the telecoms industry, undertaking data-driven and quantitative assessments to support strategic and regulatory decisions Aetha Consulting helps players in the telecommunications industry to develop creative and sustainable solutions to the challenges facing them in a constantly changing environment We specialise in undertaking rigorous, data-driven and quantitative assessments to support major strategic and regulatory decisions. We work with our clients to develop the tools and methodologies appropriate to solve each new business problem as it arises Our staff have been contracted to advise on key industry issues, including: market strategy development, radio spectrum policy, spectrum valuation and auction support We are committed to quality and exceeding our client's expectations. We have a strong track record of successful assignments with operators, regulators, and manufacturers, as well as financial and legal institutions
13 Spectrum management experience We help operators and regulators to analyse the opportunities and threats arising out of changes in their radio spectrum holdings Our staff have supported operators in over 25 spectrum auctions worldwide in the last 10 years including: 800MHz and 2.6GHz (4G) auctions in Europe including Austria, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Switzerland 2.1GHz (3G) auctions in Asia including India, Hong Kong, Singapore and Taiwan New entrant licence acquisition opportunities in countries such as the AWS auction in Canada and 2G/3G auctions in Egypt, Iran, Kuwait, Libya and Qatar. Our consultants have assisted regulators to award spectrum including supporting the UK and Danish Governments with awards of 420MHz, 800MHz, 1.5GHz, 2.1GHz and 2.6GHz spectrum
14 Recent company track record Since Aetha was founded in July 2011 we have worked for over 20 clients The topics covered have included a wide range of topics across our service portfolio * The client and project lists are in different orders, so each line on the right hand list does not necessarily correspond with the same line on the left hand list Clients * Projects * ComReg (Ireland) 900MHz and 1800MHz auction support Eircom (Ireland) Appeal against wholesale price decision GSM Association Competitor spectrum valuations IBPT (Belgium) Cost model for mobile services (various models and KPN review projects) Millicom Digital dividend case studies Ofcom (UK) Independent valuation of GSM spectrum Oger Telecommunications Independent valuation review for 800MHz auction Orange IPTV business plan for broadband operator P4 (Poland) NGA access pricing advice QinetiQ Number portability Sky Premium TV content valuation advice SUTEL (Costa Rica) Reserve price analysis Talk Talk Group Spectrum auction support (numerous projects for operators and regulators) TDC (Denmark) Spectrum policy advice Telecom Italia Spectrum re-farming paper Telefónica Strategy review for fixed operator Telenor Support to operator on regulatory consultation document Tigo (Colombia, Paraguay) (various projects) Türk Telekom Target and budget setting
15 Contact details Amit Nagpal Partner amit.nagpal@aethaconsulting.com Tel: +44 7546 912355 Graham Johnson Partner graham.johnson@aethaconsulting.com Tel: +44 7500 961907 Aetha Consulting Limited Coton Hall 10 Brookfield Road Coton Cambridge CB23 7PT United Kingdom www.aethaconsulting.com