Comparing Electricity Generation Technologies Stan Rosinski Program Manager, Renewable Generation 2011 SRP Sustainable Portfolio Review March 3, 2011
Comparing Electricity Generation Technologies Key Takeaways Electric utilities must face tradeoffs in choosing among Power generation technologies Fuels Renewable resources Balance business objectives with Environmental stewardship Regulatory compliance Future scenarios Objective is to provide a clean, reliable and affordable electricity supply 2
The Cost Challenge (in 2007 ce ents) Cents/kWh 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 U.S. Retail Price of Electricity (commercial, industrial, residential) Flat real electricity prices for past 40 years what about the next 40 years? 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 3
Where Does Our Electricity Come From? 2009 Electric Sector Generation Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration 4
Comparing Generation Technologies 5
How Many Plants Does it Take to Power a City? A Sense of Scale Nuclear Coal Natural Gas = = Biomass 1 2 Geothermal Wind Turbines 3 Solar Photovoltaic = = = 20 30 2,000 1.6 Million Annual electricity consumption for 1 million homes (based on average annual household consumption of 12,000 kilowatt hours) 6
Which Plants are Used the Most Today? 7
Summary Electric utilities must face tradeoffs in choosing among Power generation technologies Fuels Renewable resources Balance business objectives with Environmental stewardship Regulatory compliance Future scenarios Objective is to provide a clean, reliable and affordable electricity supply Stakeholder understanding di of these tradeoffs is important t 8
Energy Efficiency in Resource Portfolio Planning Omar Siddiqui Director, Energy Efficiency i 2011 SRP Sustainable Portfolio Review March 3, 2011
24 States have Energy Efficiency Resource Standards (4 more pending) Source: FERC 10
CFLs Contribution to Savings Has Been Huge California, 53% Massachusetts, 52% All sectors Residential 2009 Savings CFL Savings Vermont, 39% Residential New York, 24% Residential All Other Savings EISA 2007 Lighting Efficiency Standards will Change That! Source: DOE CFL Market Profile 2010 11
EPRI Energy Efficiency Technology Pipeline Accelerating Readiness of Emerging Efficient Technologies Assessment & Lab Testing R&D Field Tests/Demos 10s to 100s of units Coordinated Deployments 1000s of units Full Program Rollout EPRI EE EPRI EE e.g. Northwest Alliance Base Program Demonstration Project rollout of 8,000+ ductless heat pumps Utility EE Programs Technology assessment and validation Instrument extensively Evaluate: estimated deemed savings, installation, demographics, behavior Performance results to refine deemed savings Build supply chain infrastructure Full adoption Conduct M&V 12
Energy Efficiency Potential Analysis Methodology Does it create positive net present value for customers? Behavioral barriers; supply constraints Program budget realities and learning curves Economic Potential Maximum Realistic Achievable Achievable Potential Potential Economic Screen Market Screen 13 Program Screen
Levelized Cost of Electricity for EE Programs Capital Equipmentq p Infrastructure Incentives Administration Rebates/financing -customers Planning, design, delivery Incentives supply chain Program EM&V Buy downs - manufacturers Other R&D other Technical Factors Unit energy savings (kwh, kw) Useful life of measures Behavioral Factors Usage rate Persistence/replacement Saturation/free-riders Price/Rate induced load changes [1] Levelized Fixed Charge Rate; discount rate, function of organization s weighted average cost of capital 14
Energy Efficiency is competitive with supply on a cost basis Cost of US Electric End-Use Efficiency Programs, 2009 All EE Programs Commercial & Industrial Total U.S. West South Midwest Northeast Residential $0.00 $0.01 $0.02 $0.03 $0.04 $0.05 $0.06 Cost ($/kwh) Source: CEE State of the Efficiency Program Industry, 12/10/2010. Calculated from Table 5 (US Electric Program Expenditures, 2009) & Table 21 (US Estimated Annual Electric Energy Savings for 2009). All EE Programs also includes programs classified under Low Income and Other, which are not counted under Residential, Commercial, or Industrial. 15
Cost & Achievable Potential by Sector & End Use 2025 Medium Forecast Loads & Prices (Pacific Northwest) 600 6.0 500 400 300 200 1.71.7 100 5.2 4.3 3.6 2.5 2.6 2.8 2.2 2.1 13 1.3 32 3.2 2.2 2.22.3 1.6 50 5.0 4.6 4.0 31 3.4 2.8 3.1 Avg = 2.4 /kwh 3.0 1.7 2.1 2.0 1.0 Achieveable Potential (MWa) Average Levelized Cost (Cents/kWh) 0 0.0 Res. CFL Ls Ind. Non Aluminum m Com m. New & Repl. Equip ip. Com. New & Repl. Lighting Res. Heat Pump Water Heaters Com. New & Replacement HVAC Com. Retrofit HVAC Res. Clothes Washer rs Com. Retrofit Lighting Res. Existin ng Space Cond. (Shel ll) Com. Retrofit Infrastructure re Agriculture Irrigation Res. Water Heaters Res. HVAC System Conversion ns Res. New Space Cond. (Shell ll) Com. Retrofit Equipment Res. Hot Water Heat Recovery Com. New & Rep. Infrastructure re Res. HVAC Sys ystem Commissioning ng Com. Retrofit Shel ell Com. New & Replacement Shel ell Resid idential Refrigerator rs Source: Northwest Power Planning Council 16
Energy Efficiency Supply Curve by 2025 Pacific Northwest Average e Megawat tts 2025 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 Industrial Irrigation Commercial Residential <1.0 <2.0 <3.0 <4.0 <5.0 <6.0 <7.0 <8.0 <9.0 <10.0 >10.0 Levelized Cost cents per kwh ($2000) Source: Northwest Power Planning Council 17
Together Shaping the Future of Electricity 18