Forecast of Future Electricity Costs in California. Prepared by: Strategic Resource Advisers, LLC November 12, 2014

Transcription

1 Forecast of Future Electricity Costs in California Prepared by: Strategic Resource Advisers, LLC November 12, 2014

2 Presentation Outline Historical Framework Rate Pressure Future Expectations Conclusions

3 Historical Framework California energy prices (commodity prices) are higher than in neighboring States. The price of California energy and electricity across all sectors combined (residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation) is notably higher than comparable prices in the neighboring states of Arizona, Nevada, Oregon, and Washington. Page 3

4 Historical Framework Average Retail Electricity Price Cents/kWh California Arizona Nevada Oregon Washington U.S. Average Page 4 0 Residential Commercial Industrial All Sectors Source: Energy Information Administration

5 Rate Pressure - Changes in Load Growth Since 1990 Residential and commercial load growth have increased by an average 32 and 36 percent respectively. Industrial load growth has decreased by over 17 percent. Other, mainly Ag has remained relatively flat. Cumulative California Load Growth Percentage Change by Sector; Source: California Energy Commission. Energy Consumption Date Management System, Electricity Consumption by Entity. Page 5

6 Rate Pressure - Legislative and Regulatory Actions In the past 5 to 7 years, California has passed over 30 new regulations or mandates related to energy These new mandates cover a broad range of primarily environmental related goals There is little coordination or an assessment of the cumulative impact of the regulations/mandates

7 Rate Pressure- Renewable Portfolio Standard Renewable energy requirements are driving up costs due to: Altered resource portfolios New transmission requirements Integration requirements For the 5 largest utilities, renewable generation is projected to increase by between 70 and 99 percent to meet the Percent RPS. Higher cost resources going forward are therefore being added to these utilities portfolios at increasing levels. Much of the costs associated with meeting the RPS have not yet or have just begun to be reflected in rates Average Cost ($ / kwh) Average Cost of RPS Sources and Total IOU Energy Portfolio Renewable Energy (RPS and Qualifying Facilties) Total Energy Portfolio Page 7 Source: California Public Utilities Commission. Electric and Gas Utility Cost Report. Public Utilities Code Section 747 Report to the Governor and Legislature

8 Rate Pressure - GHG Cap and Trade The impact of carbon on electricity prices depends on: The market price of carbon Aggregate emissions from covered entities The CAISO indicates current carbon prices ($13-$16 per ton range) are increasing whole bids of natural gas facilities between $6-$10/MWh. Future carbon prices are uncertain. Additional demand for carbon allowances could put upward pressure on carbon prices.

9 Future Expectations - Electricity Prices are Projected to Increase Faster than CPI Electricity price increases have historically trended lower or near CPI. CEC forecasts electricity prices to increase at percentage rates exceeding the consumer price index through CEC Draft Forecasted System Average Rate Increases Compared to CPI Source: Source: CPI, Survey of Professional Forecasters, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, March 10,2013 and California Energy Demand Preliminary Forecast Volume 1: Statewide Electricity Demand, End-User Natural Gas Demand, and Energy Efficiency, p.34, California Energy Commission, May, 2013 Page 9

10 16.00 PG&E Agricultural Rates Ag Rate Avg (Actual) System Average (Actual)

11 16.00 SCE - Agricultural Electricity Rates Ag Rate Avg (Actual) System Average (Actual)

12 Conclusions Increases in California energy costs will be absorbed by all Californians and will likely continue to widen the disparity in energy costs between California and neighboring states. The California energy marketplace is very dynamic and utilities and energy suppliers are addressing a significant and growing number of requirements that are sure to have consequences on energy consumers moving forward. California consumers need to be armed with credible information regarding future energy costs and requirements to make informed decisions regarding options and alternatives Page 12