scroogenomics: WHY YOU SHOULDN T BUY PRESENTS FOR THE HOLIDAYS

scroogenomics: WHY YOU SHOULDN T BUY PRESENTS FOR THE HOLIDAYS

yields among gifts

how much spending? Retail Sales ( $ bil ) 300 350 400 450 331 326 378 362 US Retail Sales, 2007 Non-Seasonally Adjusted 395 381 376 392 0.5(Jan + Nov) $65 billion 357 372 381 430 347 349 01jan2007 01apr2007 01jul2007 01oct2007 01jan2008 01apr2008 Date 379

ditto for 2006 Retail Sales ( $ bil ) 320 340 360 380 400 420 319 314 363 353 US Retail Sales, 2006 Non-Seasonally Adjusted 375 368 363 377 01jan2006 01apr2006 01jul2006 01oct2006 01jan2007 01apr2007 Date 348 351 359 419 331 326 378

and 2005 Retail Sales ( $ bil ) 300 320 340 360 380 400 293 295 339 335 US Retail Sales, 2005 Non-Seasonally Adjusted 345 351 351 355 01jan2005 01apr2005 01jul2005 01oct2005 01jan2006 01apr2006 Date 333 336 344 405 319 314 363

are we alone? Retail Sales Index 100110120130140 100120140160180 100110120130 120140160180 Austria Belgium Denmark Finland 100110120130140 90100110120 100120140160 01jan2007 01jul2007 01jan2008 01jan2007 01jul2007 01jan2008 01jan2007 01jul2007 01jan2008 01jan2007 01jul2007 01jan2008 France Germany Ireland Italy 100120140160180 130140150160 01jan2007 01jul2007 01jan2008 01jan2007 01jul2007 01jan2008 01jan2007 01jul2007 01jan2008 01jan2007 01jul2007 01jan2008 Netherlands Norway Portugal Spain 120140160180 100120140160 01jan2007 01jul2007 01jan2008 01jan2007 01jul2007 01jan2008 01jan2007 01jul2007 01jan2008 01jan2007 01jul2007 01jan2008 01jan2007 01jul2007 01jan2008 01jan2007 01jul2007 01jan2008 01jan2007 01jul2007 01jan2008 Graphs by icountry Western Europe and the US, 2007 Sweden United Kingdom United States 300350400 Month 120140160180 80100120140160 120140160180

more company Retail Sales Index 120 140 160 180 100 120 140 160 180 01jan2007 01jul2007 01jan2008 01jan2007 01jul2007 01jan2008 01jan2007 01jul2007 01jan2008 800 1000 1200 30 35 40 45 50 01jan2007 01jul2007 01jan2008 01jan2007 01jul2007 01jan2008 01jan2007 01jul2007 01jan2008 Graphs by icountry Eastern Europe and the US, 2007 Czech Republic Hungary Poland Russia Slovakia United States Month 120 140 160 180 200 300 350 400

santa claus gap? Russians overtake USA 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 year.1.15.2.25.3 Retail rel. to Jan and Nov

and still more company Retail Sales Index 100 120 140 160 180 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 Mexico, Brazil, South Africa and the US, 2007 Brazil 100 150 01jan2007 01jul2007 01jan2008 01jan2007 01jul2007 01jan2008 South Africa 01jan2007 01jul2007 01jan2008 01jan2007 01jul2007 01jan2008 Month Graphs by icountry 300 350 400 Mexico United States

China, Israel: no; Japan: yes Retail Sales Index 700 800 900 100 105 110 115 120 China Israel Japan 100 110 120 130 01jan2007 01jul2007 01jan2008 01jan2007 01jul2007 01jan2008 01jan2007 01jul2007 01jan2008 Korea, South 300 350 400 01jan2007 01jul2007 01jan2008 01jan2007 01jul2007 01jan2008 Graphs by icountry Asia, Israel, and the US, 2007 United States Month 90 100 110 120

december bump: 2000s ember Retail Sales Bump, 2000s Hungary Italy Portugal Brazil Norway South Africa Finland Czech Republic Sweden United Kingdom Denmark Poland France Greece Mexico Austria Canada Australia Slovakia Spain United States Germany Belgium Netherlands Russia Japan New Zealand Ireland China Israel Korea, South 0.1.2.3.4.5 ember rel to Adjacent Months

1990s ember Retail Sales Bump, 1990s Italy South Africa Hungary Norway Czech Republic Sweden Mexico Greece Portugal Finland France Denmark United Kingdom Canada Australia Austria Japan Spain United States Germany Belgium Poland Ireland New Zealand Netherlands China Russia Israel Korea, South 0.2.4.6 ember rel to Adjacent Months

1980s ember Retail Sales Bump, 1980s Mexico Norway Sweden South Africa Austria Australia France Finland Japan Denmark United Kingdom Germany Canada United States Belgium Greece Ireland Netherlands Israel 0.1.2.3.4.5 ember rel to Adjacent Months

Israel 1970s ember Retail Sales Bump, 1970s France Japan Finland South Africa Denmark Germany Australia Canada Greece United Kingdom Belgium United States Ireland Netherlands Austria Norway 0.1.2.3.4.5 ember rel to Adjacent Months

Ireland Netherlands 1960s ember Retail Sales Bump, 1960s Finland Japan Germany Denmark South Africa Greece Australia United Kingdom Canada United States Belgium Austria Norway 0.2.4.6 ember rel to Adjacent Months

gift yields in europe Givers in Europe 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% in-laws aunts, uncles grandparents parents siblings friends misc. significant other -5.0% gift - own purchase yield -10.0% -15.0% -20.0% -25.0% -30.0% -35.0% -40.0%

did our generation invent the vulgar commercialization of Xmas? Current Dollars 150000 200000 250000 300000 350000 Monthly Retail Sales, 1990s not seasonally adjusted 01jan1990 01jan1992 01jan1994 01jan1996 01jan1998 01jan2000 Date

Current Dollars 50000 100000 150000 200000 Monthly Retail Sales, 1980s not seasonally adjusted 01jul1980 01jul1982 01jul1984 01jul1986 01jul1988 Date

Current Dollars 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 Monthly Retail Sales, 1970s not seasonally adjusted 01jan1966 01jan1968 01jan1970 01jan1972 01jan1974 01jan1976 01jan1978 Date

and so on, back to the 1930s Yuletide Sales Bump Since 1935.1.2.3.4.5 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 year Excess over Nov Excess over Jan

even earlier: dime stores, 1919 Chain Ten Cent Stores Monthly Retail Sales Index 40 60 80 100 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Jan Feb Mar Apr 01-01-1919 04-01-1919 07-01-1919 10-01-1919 01-01-1920 04-01-1920 1919 and early 1920

dime store bump, 1920s Dime Store Yuletide Bump 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1 0.8 rel to Nov rel to Jan 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927

the shrinking xmas share Christmas Sales as a Share of the Economy Xmas/GDP.004.006.008.01.012 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 year

clothing and shows food 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 xmas is like Luxuries, Necessities, and Christmas: Evidence over Time other durable other services transportation housing household operation other nondurables furniture gas Christmas retail recreation motor vehicles medical care

old-fashioned xmas finance Christmas Club Deposits 59 74 18 36 59 80 19 40 65 85 22 45 77 25 63 92 29 56 93 121 21 65 98 24 113 28 133 30 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Jun-33 Sep-33-33 Mar-34 Jun-34 Sep-34-34 Mar-35 Jun-35 Sep-35-35 Mar-36 Jun-36 Sep-36-36 Mar-37 Jun-37 Sep-37-37 Mar-38 Jun-38 Sep-38-38 Mar-39 Jun-39 Sep-39-39 Mar-40 Jun-40 Sep-40-40 Mar-41 Jun-41 Sep-41-41 $ millions

comes the credit card Revolving Credit ( $ bil ) 0 200 400 600 800 1000 Credit Card Debt Growth since 1970 01jan1970 01jan1980 01jan1990 01jan2000 01jan2010 Date

spending and indebtedness Credit Card Debt Growth in 2007 and early 2008 Revolving Credit ( $ bil ) 880 900 920 940 960 980 887 878 875 881 890 897 903 916 921 927 945 970 958 949 943 949 955 962 01jan2007 01jul2007 01jan2008 01jul2008 Date

xmas plastic share Owed in ember ember Excess Debt/Xmas Retail Sales.2.4.6.8 1 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 year Debt excess (above linear trend between September and the following March) relative to ember retail sales less October's.

still owed in Jan Still Owed in January January Excess Debt/Xmas Retail Sales 0.2.4.6 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 year Debt excess (above linear trend between September and the following March) relative to ember retail sales less October's.

still owed in Feb Still Owed in February February Excess Debt/Xmas Retail Sales -.1 0.1.2.3 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 year Debt excess (above linear trend between September and the following March) relative to ember retail sales less October's.

gift cards and the january dropoff January Dropoff In Gift Card Era Sales: (-Jan)/.2.22.24.26.28.3 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 year

department store dropoff Sales: (-Jan)/.4.45.5.55.6.65 January Gen'l Merch Dropoff In Gift Card Era 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 year

unequal world income Inter-Nation Lorenz Curve 2006 Cumulative Share of World Income 0.2.4.6.8 1 0.2.4.6.8 1 Cumulative Share of World Pop

2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 giving is a luxury activity Luxuries and Necessities: Current Expenditures cash contributions education entertainment transportation alcohol clothing personal care reading miscellaneous housing food health care pension

the end I wish you happy and efficient holidays