UAE and International Trade References Griffin and Pustay, Chapter 9; Rutledge, Chapter 2 Topics addressed» Trade surpluses, deficits and the Current Account» Characteristics of UAE trade» Trade Infrastructure: the UAE s strategic goal of becoming a key hub for international trade and logistics UAE Trade Policy and Globalisation, MBA 2 page 1
Trade Surpluses and Trade Deficits What is a Trade Surplus? What is a Trade Deficit? UAE Trade Policy and Globalisation, MBA 3 The Trade Balance Net Exports (NX) the trade balance is the value of a given country s Exports (X) minus the value of their Imports (I): A country has a Trade Deficit if: NX = X I» NX is negative (the net value of imports is greater than the net value of exports) A country has a Trade Surplus if:» NX is positive (the net value of imports is less than the net value of exports) UAE Trade Policy and Globalisation, MBA 4 page 2
The Balances of Payments NX is usually the largest part of a given country s Current Account» A nation s Balance of Payments (BOP) consists of two elements: 1. the Current Account is the sum of NX, net factor income NY (e.g. interest on investments) and net current ransfers NCT (e.g. foreign aid), the Current Account Balance (CAB) can thus be represented as: CAB = NX+NY+NCT 2. the Financial Account (sometimes called the Capital Account) The part of the balance of payments that records purchases of assets a country has made abroad and foreign purchases of assets in the country (physical assets, stocks, bonds) UAE Trade Policy and Globalisation, MBA 5 Trade and Capital Flow Relationships The relationship between trade flows and capital flows: A trade deficit Financial Account Surplus» If expenditure on imports exceed revenues from exports» i.e. the country is buying more than it is selling internationally, then the country is financing the additional expenditure either by borrowing from abroad or selling its assets to foreigners i.e. it must run a FA surplus A trade surplus Financial Account Deficit» If export revenues exceed import expenditure there is a trade surplus» i.e. the country is selling more than it is buying internationally, therefore this surplus must be spent by acquiring foreign assets. i.e. it must run a FA deficit UAE Trade Policy and Globalisation, MBA 6 page 3
Surpluses and Deficits: a Global Snapshot Largest creditors (in $bn) Country Global rank Surplus China 1 + 296.2 Japan 2 + 131.2 Germany 3 + 109.7 Saudi Arabia 4 + 95.7 Russia 5 + 76.1 Iran 6 + 70.7 Norway 7 + 59.9 Netherlands 8 + 52.5 Kuwait 9 + 48.0 Singapore 10 + 39.1 UAE 11 + 39.1 Qatar 19 + 21.3 Oman 41 + 3.2 Bahrain 42 + 2.9 Largest debtors (in $bn) Country Global rank Deficit USA 1 380.1 Spain 2 69.4 Italy 3 55.4 France 4 43.6 Greece 5 34.4 Source: IMF UAE Trade Policy and Globalisation, MBA 7 UAE: Current Account Balance Current Account Balance (US$ mn) 2010 2011 2012 2013 e Trade balance 48,978 106,595 128,234 119,410 Current Account Balance (as % of GDP) KEY UAE MENA Goods: exports 213,539 302,037 350,123 369,035 Goods: imports 164,561 195,442 221,889 249,626 Services balance 30,360 43,715 48,847 54,051 Income balance 100 110 297 1,450 Source: EIU, 2014 / e EIU estimates Transfers balance 11,273 12,035 13,125 13,908 CAB 7,246 50,955 66,560 52,901 UAE Trade Policy and Globalisation, MBA 8 page 4
UAE: Import/Export Statistics Dubai and Abu Dhabi foreign trade (AED bn) Dubai Abu Dhabi 2010 2011 2010 2011 Exports 67.9 98.1 289.7 404.8 Re exports 144.0 160.7 10.9 11.5 Imports 363.7 441.7 86.5 116.4 Net trade in goods 151.8 182.9 214.1 300.1 Sources: UAE Trade Policy and Globalisation, MBA 9 UAE Trade Overview» Source of imports diversified, export market increasingly centred on Asia» However the range of exports are limited: predominantly they consist of oil, gas and their derivative by products (i.e. petrochemicals) Main destination of exports (share of total, 2012) Main origin of imports (share of total, 2012) Source: EIU, 2013 UAE Trade Policy and Globalisation, MBA 10 page 5
WTO Membership and FTA Negotiations» The UAE became a WTO member in 1996» Has signed bilateral trade agreements with some Arab countries, including Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco and Syria. and began negotiations with Australia and the US in 2005» Is part of a GCC common market involving free movement of goods, capital and labour» As an economic bloc, the GCC concluded a FTA with Singapore in January 2008, negotiations took just one year» The GCC are currently negotiating several multilateral FTAs in Asia, including China, India and Japan» A GCC EU FTA has stalled after more than 10 years of negotiations UAE Trade Policy and Globalisation, MBA 11 Trade Infrastructure» Can the UAE achieve its goal of becoming a regional trade and logistics hub?» The World Bank Logistics Performance Index» Trade Infrastructure: Seaports, Airports UAE Trade Policy and Globalisation, MBA 12 page 6
Trade and Logistics» The UAE s goal is to become a trade and logistics hub for the region» World Bank Logistics Performance Index» The Logistics Performance Index (LPI) in 2012 ranked the UAE 17th among 155 countries across the world, the best among the GCC countries. Qatar ranked 33, Saudi Arabia 37, Bahrain 48, Oman 62 and Kuwait 70.» The LPI is the weighted average of the country scores on the six key areas: Efficiency of the clearance process, Quality of trade and transport related infrastructure (e.g. ports, railroads, roads, information technology); Ease of arranging competitively priced shipments; Quality of logistics services ; Ability to track consignments; and Timeliness of shipments in reaching destination within the scheduled or expected delivery time. UAE Trade Policy and Globalisation, MBA 13 Trade Infrastructure: Seaports UAE Trade Policy and Globalisation, MBA 14 page 7
Jebel Ali Port and Free Trade Zone» Jebel Ali Port» the MENA region s largest seaport, and, if measured by the tonnage of containers transported through the port, in 2013 it was the seventh busiest globally.» Dubai Ports World» currently the world s third largest port operator in terms of the tonnage of goods handled. It operates 49 terminals with 12 new developments under construction across 31 countries and employs 30,000 people worldwide.» JAFZA» situated between the port and Al Maktoum International Airport, JAFZA is only FTZ in the world to be located between a major seaport and airport. Currently 6,400 businesses are based in JAFZA. UAE Trade Policy and Globalisation, MBA 15 Trade Infrastructure: Airports UAE Trade Policy and Globalisation, MBA 16 page 8
International Airports» Dubai International Airport» London Heathrow was the busiest since 2000 but YTD May 2013 data shows Dubai taking the top spot when measured by international passenger traffic» Sixth busiest airport globally when measured by quantity of cargo handled (2.3 million tonnes of cargo) in 2012.» Emirates Sky Cargo» is the top cargo airline in terms of international freight tonnage kilometers flown and third in terms of international and domestic freight tonnage kms flown» International cargo companies» Such as Fedex, DHL, Cargolux, all use Dubai as their regional transport and logistics hub UAE Trade Policy and Globalisation, MBA 17 Al Maktoum International Airport This $32bn development opened its first runway and cargo terminal in 2010» When completed, in 2027, it will have an annual cargo capacity of 12mn tons, and a passenger capacity of up to 160mn which would be more than the US Atlanta Airport (currently the world s largest), which handled 90mn people in 2008. Dubai World Central will not only cater to the region s economic growth but will be a strong catalyst for our next level of development as a truly global commercial, trade and logistics hub HH Sheikh Ahmed bin Saeed Al Maktoum, Chairman Dubai World Central UAE Trade Policy and Globalisation, MBA 18 page 9