1. Demographic trends 25 Tourism Tourism had been rising steadily in the Asia-Pacific region until 2008 when, following with global trends, there was a fall in demand, with implications for some of the region s developing economies. Between 2007 and 2008, the global growth in international tourist arrivals fell from 6.7 to 2.0% reflecting an extremely volatile and unfavourable global economy. As the world comes out of recession, tourism growth is also likely to be modest in 2009. This was an unexpected reversal. Over the period 1995-2007, tourism continued to experience steady growth, of 4.2% per year, confirming its status as the world s largest growth industry. Between 2006 and 2007, international tourist arrivals increased by 6.7% to 900 million. All the regions registered increases, and the Asia-Pacific region led the ranking with a 10.4% increase. Growth in Africa was 9.9% while in Latin America and the Caribbean it was 3.2%. The two mature tourism markets North America and Europe experienced contrasting performances. While North America recorded a sharp increase of 6.7%, Europe, the world s largest destination, posted only 4.4% growth. Between 1995 and 2007, the Asia-Pacific region s share of total arrivals increased from 18.7 to 25.7%. Steady growth was also recorded in Africa: over the same period, its share grew from 4.2 to 6.0%. North America and Europe, on the other hand, despite increases in their absolute number of tourist arrivals, saw their shares of the market decline. Within the Asia-Pacific region, the strongest performance was in the South and South-West Asia subregion, with a hefty increase in tourist arrivals in 2007 of 14.4%. This growth was sustained by the robust performances of Nepal (+37.2%), Turkey (+17.6%), India (+14.3%) and Maldives (+12.3%). The South-East Asia subregion, which used to be the region s leader, became the second best Figure 25.1 Shares in international tourist arrivals, global regions, 1990-2007 Percentage 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 Europe Asia-Pacific N Am LAC Africa performer with a 11.7% increase. A double-digit increase in visitors was recorded in Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia and Viet Nam. The recovery in Indonesia was mainly boosted by the resurgence of demand for travel to Bali. By contrast, the results for Thailand (+4.6%) and the Philippines (+8.7%), although positive, were rather modest. Thailand has been affected by security concerns, while the Philippines has suffered mainly from supply constraints, particularly in terms of airline capacity. In the East and North East-Asia subregion, Macao, China, led the growth in tourist arrivals for the second year, with an increase of 21.1% in 2007. China s growth in arrivals (+9.6%) also contributed to the subregion s continuing high performance. Indeed, in recent years China has become a world tourism leader, both inbound and outbound. Since 1995, tourist departures from China have grown tenfold. Among the beneficiaries of China s outbound travel growth were Japan with a 13.8% increase of visitors in 2007 and Hong Kong, China, with an 8.4% increase. Tourist arrivals in the Republic of Korea grew only by 2.2% in 2006, but 179
Figure 25.2 International tourist departures, selected countries, Asia and the Pacific, 1995 and 2007 Hong Kong, China China Russian Federation Japan Republic of Korea India Turkey Singapore Australia Thailand Bangladesh New Zealand 2007 1995 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 Thousand people by 4.8% in 2007, probably as a result of an increased marketing campaign. The North and Central Asia subregion also had a solid performance, averaging a 7.7% annual growth in arrivals over the period 1995-2007. Three major countries contributed to this. Between 2000 and 2007, Kyrgyzstan saw its tourist arrivals growing from a mere 59,000 arrivals to 1.5 million in 2007. Over the same period there were also annual increases in Kazakhstan, by 14.8% and in Azerbaijan by 8.4%. Since the beginning of the 21st century, the countries in this subregion have taken steps to promote themselves as emerging tourism destinations. The growth in arrivals has been accompanied by a large growth in income. Between 1995 and 2007 worldwide receipts from international tourism more than doubled to $1,028 billion. As in the previous years, Europe received almost half ($466.9 billion) of world revenue, while almost one quarter ($241.7 billion) went to Asia and the Pacific. Between 2000 and 2007, the region increased its share of global tourism receipts from 19.1 to 23.5%, consolidating its position as the second-highest tourism earner. Tourism can have a huge economic impact as visitors spend money on accommodation, food and drink, and local transportation. Within the Asia-Pacific region, several countries depend to a substantial extent on tourism. For example, in the Pacific island developing economies as a group, the share of tourism in their GDP averaged 11.9% in 2006, ranging from around 20% in Fiji, French Polynesia and Samoa to 57.1% in Palau. Maldives is also another developing island destination, whose dependence is particularly high. Its revenue from tourism represents more than half of its GDP. In Macao, China, the tourism sector continues to Figure 25.3 International tourism receipts, percentage of GDP, selected countries, Asia and the Pacific, 1995 and 2007 Maldives Vanuatu French Polynesia Samoa Cambodia Kyrgyzstan Malaysia Hong Kong, China Thailand Tonga Singapore Lao PDR New Zealand Philippines Armenia Turkey Australia Marshall Islands New Caledonia Bhutan 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 % of GDP 2007 1995 expand thanks to the continuous development of new hotels and casinos: by 2006 tourism accounted for 70% of GDP. Within South-East Asia, Cambodia continues to successfully capitalize on its main asset, the famous World Heritage cultural site of Angkor Wat. As a result, over the period 2005-2007 tourism contributed on average 14.8% of its GDP. By contrast, in the Lao People s Democratic Republic, between 2006 and 2007, the share of tourism in its GDP declined from 6.9 to 4.6%. However, this result could be misleading because, between 2000 and 2007, international tourism receipts increased in absolute terms, from $114 million to $189 million suggesting that the country is diversifying its economy. In Thailand, tourism successfully recovered from the 2004 tsunami disaster. Indeed, between 2005 and 2007 the revenue from tourism increased from 6.9 to 8.4% of GDP, returning to its 2000 level. Malaysia too made progress, between 2006 and 2007, tourism s share of GDP rose from 7.9 to 9.0%. In terms of source markets, international tourism came largely from the traditional industrialized countries of Europe and the Americas. However, over recent years, with rising disposable incomes, many Asia-Pacific emerging economies have shown fast growth. In 2007 outbound tourism from North and Central Asia recorded a significant gain (+15.9%) spearheaded 180
by Kazakhstan (23.2%) and the Russian Federation (+17.8%). More tourists are also coming from South and South-West Asia (+12.3%), from countries such as India (+17.3%), and from Turkey (+8%). In the East and North-East Asia subregion outbound tourism increased by 10.9% with China increasing by 18.6% and reinforcing its position as one of the world s leading sources of tourists. International tourist arrivals (thousands) Refers to the number of International Tourist Arrivals taking into account the following considerations: (1) Data refer exclusively to tourists (overnight visitors): a visitor who stays at least one night in a collective or private accommodation in the country visited. Same-day visitors are not included. (2) data refer to the number of arrivals and not to the number of persons. The same person who makes several trips to a given country during a given period will be counted as a new arrival each time, as well as a person who travels through several countries on one trip is counted as a new arrival each time. Aggregates: Calculated by ESCAP as the sum of individual country values. Missing data have been imputed. Source: World Bank, World Development International tourist departures (thousands) The number of departures that people make from their country of usual residence to any other country for any purpose other than a remunerated activity in the country visited. Aggregates: Sum of individual country values. Missing data have been imputed. Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators. Online database accessed on 10 October 2009. International tourism receipts (million US dollars; percentage of GDP) The receipts earned by a destination country from inbound tourism resulting from expenditure made by visitors from abroad, on lodging, food and drinks, fuel, transport in the country, entertainment, shopping, etc. Aggregates: Calculated by ESCAP as the sum of individual country values (total receipts) and using GDP in US dollars as weight. Missing data for some countries and years have been imputed. Source: World Bank, World Development Outbound tourism expenditures (million US dollars; percentage of GDP) The expenditure incurred by people travelling from their country of usual residence to any other country for any purpose other than a remunerated activity in the country visited: on lodging, food and drinks, fuel, transport in the country, entertainment, shopping, etc. Aggregates: Calculated by ESCAP as the sum of individual country values (total expenditures) and using GDP in US dollars as weight. Missing data for some countries and years have been imputed. Source: World Bank, World Development 181
25.1 International tourists Arrivals Departures Thousands Thousands 1995 2000 2005 2006 2007 1995 2000 2005 2006 2007 East and North-East Asia 38 579 55 456 83 685 90 292 100 063 26 706 38 555 131 105 139 753 152 468 China 20 034 31 229 46 809 49 913 54 720 4 520 10 473 31 026 34 524 40 954 DPR Korea Hong Kong, China 8 814 14 773 15 821 17 154 3 023 4 611 72 300 75 812 80 682 Japan 3 345 4 757 6 728 7 334 8 347 15 298 17 819 17 404 17 535 17 295 Macao, China 4 202 5 197 9 014 10 683 12 942 46 144 295 272 212 Mongolia 108 137 338 386 452 Republic of Korea 3 753 5 322 6 023 6 155 6 448 3 819 5 508 10 080 11 610 13 325 South-East Asia 29 588 37 429 49 222 53 787 60 076 28 757 41 481 45 785 47 549 48 885 Brunei Darussalam 498 984 815 836 877 Cambodia 1 333 1 591 1 873 31 41 568 787 996 Indonesia 4 324 5 064 5 002 4 871 5 506 1 782 4 106 4 341 Lao PDR 60 191 672 842 Malaysia 7 469 10 222 16 431 17 547 20 973 20 642 30 532 Myanmar 117 208 232 264 248 Philippines 1 760 1 992 2 623 2 843 3 092 1 615 1 670 2 144 2 745 Singapore 6 070 6 062 7 079 7 588 7 957 2 867 4 444 5 159 5 533 6 024 Thailand 6 952 9 579 11 567 13 822 14 464 1 820 1 909 3 047 3 382 4 018 Timor-Leste Viet Nam 1 351 2 140 3 468 3 583 4 244 South and South-West Asia 11 316 15 672 28 420 28 759 32 912 9 503 13 835 21 296 22 601 25 371 Afghanistan Bangladesh 156 199 208 200 289 830 1 128 1 767 1 819 2 327 Bhutan 5 8 14 17 21 India 2 124 2 649 3 919 4 447 5 082 3 056 4 416 7 185 8 340 9 780 Iran (Islamic Rep. of) 489 1 342 1 889 2 735 1 000 2 286 Maldives 315 467 395 602 676 32 42 77 74 Nepal 363 464 375 384 527 100 155 373 415 469 Pakistan 378 557 798 898 840 Sri Lanka 403 400 549 560 494 504 524 727 757 862 Turkey 7 083 9 586 20 273 18 916 22 248 3 981 5 284 8 246 8 275 8 938 North and Central Asia 12 782 24 016 27 661 29 278 31 175 22 936 21 718 34 645 36 660 42 494 Armenia 12 45 319 381 111 269 329 Azerbaijan 861 903 1 010 1 326 1 830 1 836 1 631 Georgia 85 387 560 983 1 052 228 315 Kazakhstan 1 471 3 143 3 468 3 876 1 247 3 004 3 688 4 544 Kyrgyzstan 36 59 319 766 1 654 42 47 201 454 Russian Federation 10 290 21 169 22 201 22 486 22 909 21 329 18 371 28 416 29 107 34 285 Tajikistan 4 6 Turkmenistan 218 3 12 6 8 21 78 33 33 38 Uzbekistan 92 302 242 281 217 572 893 Pacific 9 147 10 383 10 415 3 798 5 173 7 095 7 280 7 925 American Samoa 34 44 24 25 40 41 35 41 Australia 4 530 5 020 5 064 2 519 3 498 4 756 4 941 5 462 Cook Islands Fiji 318 294 550 545 539 68 83 French Polynesia 172 252 208 222 218 63 Guam 1 362 1 287 1 228 1 212 Kiribati 4 5 3 4 5 Marshall Islands 6 5 9 6 7 Micronesia (F.S.) 21 19 19 21 Nauru New Caledonia 86 110 101 100 103 59 69 96 100 106 New Zealand 1 780 2 353 2 390 2 434 920 1 283 1 872 1 861 1 978 Niue Northern Mariana Islands Palau 53 58 86 87 93 Papua New Guinea 42 58 69 78 104 51 52 Samoa 68 88 102 116 122 61 52 Solomon Islands 12 5 9 11 14 Tonga 29 35 42 39 Tuvalu Vanuatu 44 58 62 68 11 12 14 15 16 Asia and the Pacific 100 482 141 720 199 371 212 531 234 679 91 700 120 762 239 926 253 843 277 143 LLDC 3 260 6 299 7 438 9 056 1 479 3 187 6 285 7 651 8 361 LDC 3 405 4 099 4 685 1 062 1 439 2 851 3 162 3 934 ASEAN 29 588 37 429 49 222 53 787 60 076 28 757 41 481 45 785 47 549 48 885 ECO 10 345 13 900 27 541 27 977 32 656 6 249 10 491 16 810 18 103 19 422 SAARC 3 744 4 744 6 258 7 108 7 929 4 522 6 265 10 129 11 405 13 512 Central Asia 2 847 5 460 6 792 8 266 1 607 3 347 6 229 7 553 8 209 Pacific island dev. econ. 2 917 2 837 3 010 2 961 359 392 467 478 485 Low income 3 164 4 554 6 853 7 915 9 962 1 253 1 594 3 484 4 371 5 142 Middle income 64 724 97 554 138 678 146 782 161 576 61 833 81 727 High income 39 612 53 840 57 834 63 141 28 614 37 441 112 027 117 729 125 149 Africa 23 048 33 018 45 331 49 798 54 728 12 734 14 565 19 328 18 726 19 077 Europe 291 488 359 723 392 772 415 088 433 455 285 326 363 438 423 271 429 065 442 644 Latin America and Carib. 46 050 54 596 62 836 63 876 65 894 23 210 30 715 37 511 39 399 41 768 North America 60 809 71 197 68 247 69 542 74 223 69 631 80 649 84 763 86 564 89 396 Other countries/areas 15 679 23 626 33 502 36 270 39 844 16 327 20 713 19 191 17 272 20 621 World 535 972 687 632 807 029 852 889 911 470 579 267 760 402 1 008 132 1 035 792 1 100 372 182
25.2 Tourism receipts and expenditures International tourism receipts Outbound tourism expenditures Million US dollars % of GDP Million US dollars % of GDP 1995 2005 2007 1995 2005 2007 1995 2005 2007 1995 2005 2007 East and North-East Asia 33 164 77 714 90 905 0.5 1.0 1.0 57 637 103 647 109 634 0.9 1.3 1.2 China 8 730 31 842 41 126 1.2 1.4 1.2 3 688 24 715 33 264 0.5 1.1 1.0 DPR Korea Hong Kong, China 9 604 13 588 18 015 6.7 7.6 8.7 10 497 13 305 15 086 7.3 7.5 7.3 Japan 4 894 15 555 12 422 0.1 0.3 0.3 36 764 48 102 37 261 0.7 1.1 0.9 Macao, China 3 233 8 236 46.6 71.0 428 3.7 Mongolia 33 203 2.3 8.8 20 173 1.4 7.5 Republic of Korea 6 670 8 290 8 947 1.2 1.0 0.9 6 341 16 924 23 359 1.2 2.0 2.2 South-East Asia 30 129 39 481 62 408 4.4 4.4 4.8 14 322 26 100 33 745 2.1 2.9 2.6 Brunei Darussalam 191 2.0 374 3.9 Cambodia 71 929 1 284 2.1 14.8 14.9 8 138 194 0.2 2.2 2.2 Indonesia 5 229 5 094 5 833 2.4 1.8 1.3 2 172 4 740 6 120 1.0 1.7 1.4 Lao PDR 52 147 189 3.1 5.4 4.6 30 1.8 Malaysia 5 044 10 389 16 798 5.5 7.5 9.0 2 314 4 339 6 245 2.5 3.1 3.3 Myanmar 169 85 2.2 0.7 18 34 0.2 0.3 Philippines 1 141 2 755 5 518 1.5 2.8 3.8 422 1 547 2 007 0.6 1.6 1.4 Singapore 7 611 5 909 8 680 9.1 4.9 5.2 4 631 10 011 11 844 5.5 8.3 7.1 Thailand 9 257 12 102 20 623 5.5 6.9 8.4 4 271 4 917 6 887 2.5 2.8 2.8 Timor-Leste Viet Nam 1 880 3.6 South and South-West Asia 9 166 30 838 35 788 1.1 1.8 1.5 3 180 18 561 23 336 0.4 1.1 1.0 Afghanistan Bangladesh 25 79 76 0.1 0.1 0.1 233 375 514 0.6 0.7 0.7 Bhutan 5 19 30 1.7 2.3 2.4 India 2 582 7 652 10 729 0.7 0.9 0.9 996 7 798 0.3 1.0 Iran (Islamic Rep. of) 205 1 364 1 834 0.2 0.7 0.6 241 4 560 6 526 0.2 2.3 2.3 Maldives 211 287 586 52.9 38.3 55.5 31 92 126 7.8 12.3 11.9 Nepal 232 160 234 4.7 1.7 1.9 136 221 402 2.8 2.4 3.3 Pakistan 582 828 900 0.7 0.6 0.5 446 1 753 2 043 0.5 1.4 1.2 Sri Lanka 367 729 750 2.7 3.0 2.3 186 552 709 1.4 2.3 2.2 Turkey 4 957 19 720 20 649 2.2 4.1 3.1 911 3 210 3 720 0.4 0.7 0.6 North and Central Asia 4 681 9 412 15 398 1.1 1.1 1.0 12 285 20 299 26 974 2.8 2.3 1.8 Armenia 14 240 343 1.1 4.9 3.7 3 284 345 0.2 5.8 3.7 Azerbaijan 87 100 317 2.8 0.8 1.0 146 188 381 4.7 1.4 1.2 Georgia 287 441 4.5 4.3 237 277 3.7 2.7 Kazakhstan 155 801 1 213 0.8 1.4 1.2 283 940 1 355 1.4 1.6 1.3 Kyrgyzstan 5 94 392 0.3 3.8 10.3 7 94 193 0.5 3.8 5.1 Russian Federation 4 312 7 806 12 587 1.1 1.0 1.0 11 599 18 425 24 289 2.9 2.4 1.9 Tajikistan 10 16 0.4 0.7 4 7 0.2 0.3 Turkmenistan Uzbekistan 28 0.2 Pacific 15 903 30 299 37 227 3.5 3.5 3.4 6 397 19 043 23 898 1.4 2.2 2.2 American Samoa Australia 11 915 22 566 29 065 3.1 3.1 3.1 4 587 15 593 19 844 1.2 2.1 2.1 Cook Islands Fiji 369 676 18.8 23.0 64 132 3.3 4.5 French Polynesia 326 759 876 11.3 20.4 20.5 430 600 11.6 14.0 Guam Kiribati 2 5.4 Marshall Islands 3 6 5 2.5 4.1 2.9 0 0.3 Micronesia (F.S.) 17 7.3 6 2.6 Nauru New Caledonia 108 149 197 3.0 2.4 2.5 122 149 2.0 1.9 New Zealand 2 318 5 162 5 406 3.8 4.6 4.1 1 289 2 657 3 066 2.1 2.4 2.4 Niue Northern Mariana Islands Palau 97 67.1 2 1.0 Papua New Guinea 25 4 0.5 0.1 58 56 1.2 1.2 Samoa 36 80 107 17.8 18.3 19.7 3 17 14 1.5 3.9 2.6 Solomon Islands 17 7 4.7 1.7 13 11 3.6 2.7 Tonga 10 15 15 5.9 6.9 6.0 4 10 1.8 4.0 Tuvalu Vanuatu 45 104 142 19.2 28.1 28.0 5 13 13 2.1 3.5 2.6 Asia and the Pacific 93 043 187 744 241 726 1.0 1.5 1.6 93 821 187 650 217 587 1.0 1.5 1.4 LLDC 616 1 848 3 084 1.1 1.5 1.4 701 2 031 3 022 1.3 1.7 1.4 LDC 865 1 900 2 718 1.4 1.9 2.1 477 901 1 318 0.8 0.9 1.0 ASEAN 30 129 39 481 62 408 4.4 4.4 4.8 14 322 26 100 33 745 2.1 2.9 2.6 ECO 6 024 22 991 25 410 1.3 2.5 1.9 2 110 10 876 14 352 0.5 1.2 1.1 SAARC 4 004 9 754 13 305 0.8 0.9 0.9 2 028 10 791 13 090 0.4 1.0 0.9 Central Asia 369 1 606 2 811 0.8 1.5 1.5 686 1 874 2 685 1.5 1.8 1.4 Pacific island dev. econ. 1 670 2 571 11.2 12.8 521 793 988 3.5 4.0 4.0 Low income 3 412 1.9 434 866 1 350 0.4 0.5 0.6 Middle income 43 580 103 272 141 612 1.7 1.9 1.7 28 127 78 838 104 168 1.1 1.4 1.3 High income 47 489 81 060 94 621 0.7 1.2 1.4 65 260 107 946 112 069 1.0 1.6 1.6 Africa 13 080 33 019 44 370 2.5 3.4 3.4 7 406 16 972 23 977 1.4 1.7 1.9 Europe 229 027 376 852 466 938 2.3 2.6 2.6 193 511 369 755 445 800 2.0 2.5 2.5 Latin America and Carib. 27 654 51 342 61 525 1.5 1.8 1.6 17 184 32 907 43 062 0.9 1.2 1.1 North America 103 364 139 474 163 362 1.3 1.0 1.1 55 394 122 442 141 230 0.7 0.9 0.9 Other countries/areas 14 038 28 469 33 112 3.6 3.3 2.9 26 683 35 504 45 995 6.9 4.1 4.0 World 486 148 827 850 1 028 350 1.6 1.8 1.9 410 850 761 997 918 692 1.4 1.7 1.7 183