Weather Hazards and Forests in NC Ryan Boyles State Climatologist North Carolina State t University it ryan_boyles@ncsu.edu NC Forestry Association Annual Meeting Asheville, NC October 4, 2012
About the State Climate Office Public Service Center at NCSU Statewide public resource for weather and climate information and services Extension of research to community applications Research on NC weather and climate Outreach Education NC Forestry Association - Asheville, NC - October 4, 2012 2
Challenging Climate Highly variable climate Daily, seasonal, multi-year, decadal variations Only cool season has any predictability You name the weather, NC experiences it* Every kind of severe weather Few other locations face these challenges Extremes from day to day, over short distances NC Forestry Association - Asheville, NC - October 4, 2012 3
Extremes in NC Asheville Driest Weather Station 37.32 inches (annual average) Lake Toxaway Wettest Weather Station 91.72 inches (annual avg.) NC Forestry Association - Asheville, NC - October 4, 2012 4
Why is Weather & Climate Important? Impacts everyday life Economy is very sensitive At least 1/3 of economic activity directly sensitive to weather and climate $100B annual in NC Impacts to various sectors: Agriculture, re energy production, reservoirs, city planning, infrastructure, tourism/recreation, insurance, wildfires, air/water quality NC Forestry Association - Asheville, NC - October 4, 2012 5
Weather vs. Climate Weather = short-term occurrence Climate = long-term weather frequency Durham Bulls Individual Stats (Batting) Player POS AB AVG Luke Scott DH 8 0.375 Henry Wrigley 1B 225 0.342 Chris Gimenez C 152 0.336 Leslie Anderson 1B 323 0.316 Stephen Vogt C 218 0.307 Brandon Guyer RF 85 0.294 Nevin Ashley C 48 0.292 Rich Thompson LF 218 0.289 Cole Figueroa 2B 206 0.286 Jeff Keppinger 2B 21 0.286 Matt Mangini 1B 293 0.276 NC Forestry Association - Asheville, NC - October 4, 2012 6
What does it mean for NC? NC is sensitive to weather Lots of Hazards Enormous exposure in agriculture, natural resources, tourism NC Forestry Association - Asheville, NC - October 4, 2012 7
What forces our climate? Energy Balance Earth s complex surface Earth s atmospheric composition Our Location on Earth NC Forestry Association - Asheville, NC - October 4, 2012 8
Insert energy balance figure NC Forestry Association - Asheville, NC - October 4, 2012 9
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Latitude Topography p Proximity to Oceans NC Forestry Association - Asheville, NC - October 4, 2012 11
RESULT We get it all Insert collage of hazards photos NC Forestry Association - Asheville, NC - October 4, 2012 12
Variations in Climate Short-term Earth s surface Winter Summer Longer-term Atmospheric composition Earth s surface NC Forestry Association - Asheville, NC - October 4, 2012 13
El Niño Ocean Temps you are here NC Forestry Association - Asheville, NC - October 4, 2012 14
Typical El Niño Winter Jet Stream Storms, moisture track along Gulf of Mexico & east of Appalachian Mountains Several coastal storms Forest Biology Research NC EPA-NIEHS Forestry Cooperative Association Climate Annual Change - Asheville, Advisory Workshop, NC Council - October June Meeting, 17, 4, 2011 2012 September 30, 2011 15
El Niño Winter Precipitation it ti Decreased Precip Increased Precip Forest Biology Research NC Forestry Cooperative Association Annual - Asheville, Advisory NC Council - October Meeting, 4, 2012 September 30, 2011 16
La Niña - Ocean Anomalies you are here NC Forestry Association - Asheville, NC - October 4, 2012 17
La Niña Winter Jet Stream Storms, moisture track along Ohio River Valley & west of Appalachian Mountains Few to zero coastal storms Forest Biology Research NC Forestry Cooperative Association Annual - Asheville, Advisory NC Council - October Meeting, 4, 2012 September 30, 2011 18
La Niña Winter Precipitation it ti Increased Precip Decreased Precip Forest Biology Research NC Forestry Cooperative Association Annual - Asheville, Advisory NC Council - October Meeting, 4, 2012 September 30, 2011 19
Bermuda High Pressure Strength, location is crucial to amount of warm season precipitation p in SEUS drought Unpredictable beyond few days in advance NCSU Alumni Reception - Asheville, NC - July 20, 2011 20
Typical Summer Conditions H NC Forestry Association - Asheville, NC - October 4, 2012 21
Typical Summer Drought (2007) Drought H NC Forestry Association - Asheville, NC - October 4, 2012 22
Climate and Forests Complexity help drive forest diversity Growth, productivity due to warm, moist conditions Hazards create risk NC Forestry Association - Asheville, NC - October 4, 2012 23
Climate Risks to Forests Ice Drought Thunderstorms /Lightning Wind NC Forestry Association - Asheville, NC - October 4, 2012 24
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Hail? Hail Events: 2002-2011 NC Forestry Association - Asheville, NC - October 4, 2012 28
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Tornadoes 1982-2011 NC Forestry Association - Asheville, NC - October 4, 2012 30
Tornadoes? NC Forestry Association - Asheville, NC - October 4, 2012 31
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Hurricanes NC Forestry Association - Asheville, NC - October 4, 2012 33
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Pests Disease and Insects Tree disease, insects impacted by weather NC Forestry Association - Asheville, NC - October 4, 2012 35
Long-term Changes Atmospheric Composition Cloud type and amounts Surface land/ocean land use vegetation ice cover NC Forestry Association - Asheville, NC - October 4, 2012 36
Changing Impacts to Forests? Possible increase in drought, lightning activity Fewer, more intense hurricanes Already experience almost every climate hazards Known management strategies t will continue to be important NC Forestry Association - Asheville, NC - October 4, 2012 37
Climate Challenges in NC Challenges in monitoring, predicting impacts Hourly, daily decision making Seasonal, long term planning NC is vulnerable to our extreme weather and climate Good planning can increase resilience NC Forestry Association - Asheville, NC - October 4, 2012 38
Climate Science Needs Observations Source for all scientific advancement Must be local, accurate Applications Tools to let public, businesses use science Education Lots of climate awareness, little climate education NC Forestry Association - Asheville, NC - October 4, 2012 39
How do we meet the challenge? Integrated sciences Multi-disciplinary Extension, research, education Training for undergraduate, graduate students Applied science research Doesn t end with a science paper NC Forestry Association - Asheville, NC - October 4, 2012 40
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ryan_boyles@ncsu.edu http://www.nc-climate.ncsu.edu 919-515-3056 or 877-718-5544 718
How do we monitor and detect? Remote Sensing (Satellite, Radar) Surface sensors Proxies Tree rings Ice cores Soil sediment cores NC Forestry Association - Asheville, NC - October 4, 2012 44
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How do we predict? Models Weather Seasonal climate Long-term climate Downscaling Validation NC Forestry Association - Asheville, NC - October 4, 2012 49