Chapter 12 Measuring Progress Dave Ludwick
Measuring Performance Why do we measure project progress? What s measured is what gets done If you cannot measure it, you cannot control it. If you cannot control it, you cannot manage it. Maybe we need to Assess current performance Set goals for improvement Anticipate any potential deviations
Measuring Performance The key to finishing a project on time and on budget is to start out that way and stay on track throughout the project. I m glad project management is so easy Performance measurement provides the feedback loop to maintain control. When project managers start with challenging schedules and then fall behind, even by a little, they spend the rest of the project trying to catch up. Measurement helps identify problems when they are small and there is still time to catch up. Because cost and schedule progress comprise two-thirds of the cost-schedule-quality equilibrium, they are the primary focus of progress measurement.
Measuring Schedule Performance How do we set up a project to support performance measurement? Break project tasks up into small work units. Work units that are too large may result in hidden problems until far-off end times start becoming jeopardized Shorter, closer project tasks and deadlines help make problems become more evident Again, remember the 8/80 rule and the status reporting rule Of course, don t make the project tasks so small that the cost of managing becomes unreasonable A balance is required
Measuring Schedule Performance Fundamentals required to apply Earned Value Define the scope Develop the WBS Develop the schedule Apply the budget to the schedule to create a forecasted cost schedule Profile the budget Do the work (it s a concept) Measure the performance Analyze results Forecast the future outcomes Take preventive or corrective action
Use the 0-50-100 rule A project step is 0% complete if it is not started 50% completed if it is started but not finished 100% complete when finished Completion criteria Its important that tasks are not called complete until the small tail end portions of it are complete
Earned Value (EV or EVA) Earned value is a method of calculating and reporting project progress Earned Value Analysis (EVA) was developed by the US Department of Defense to determine the performance of large military procurement contracts EVA looks at three basic parameters: What value of work SHOULD have been accomplished to date? How much value has been realized to date? How much has actually been spent to date?
Earned Value It uses cost data to give reports on overall cost and schedule performance It helps to report projects that are Ahead of schedule, but over budget Ahead of schedule and under budget Or any combination of these Before we look at this, we need to understand some things...
Earned Value Definitions Planned Cost the planned or budgeted cost of any or all tasks Budgeted Cost of Work Performed (BCWP, aka Earned Value or EV) the planned/budgeted cost of work complete Budgeted Cost of Work Scheduled (BCWS, aka Planned Value, PV) this is the budgeted cost of tasks that were to be completed by the current date
Earned Value Definitions Actual Cost of the Work Performed (ACWP or just Actual Cost, AC) the actual cost of tasks complete Cost Variance (CV) = BCWP ACWP CV% = CV/BCWP Cost Performance Index = BCWP/ACWP If CPI >1.0, we are under budget
Earned Value Definitions Budget at Completion = BAC = the approved project budget Estimate at Completion = EAC = a re-estimate of the total project budget = BAC x ACWP/BCWP This is a way of forecasting EAC based on current costing trends Estimate to Completion = ETC = the budget amount needed to complete the project from where it is based on current CPI ETC = EAC AC Variance at Completion = VAC = the estimated difference at the end of the project between the budget and actual cost
Earned Value Definitions Schedule Variance (SV) the difference between the value of the work that was planned for completion and the value of the work actually completed SV = BCWP BCWS SV% = SV/BCWS Schedule Performance Index (SPI) = BCWP/BCWS If SPI > 1, we are ahead of schedule To Complete Performance Index The Performance Index the team needs to hit from now on to determine how efficient it will need to be with the remaining resources to complete a project which has been behind on budget To Complete Index = TCPI = (BAC - EV ) / (BAC AC )
Earned Value Chart The EV chart is a great way to communicate project status to management You can create one of these by recalculating EV stats on a weekly or monthly basis (depending on project length
Example: An example of use Task A is worth $200, is 100% complete, and actually cost $200. Task B is worth $75, is 90% complete, and actually cost $120 so far. Task C is worth $200, is 75% complete, and has cost $175 so far. The total budget is $475. What is the total Earned Value for the tasks listed? Planned Values Task A: EV = $200 Task B: EV =.9 x $75 = $67.5 Task C: EV =.75 x $200 = $150 EV of project = 200 + 67.5 + 150 = $417.50
Example: An example Task A is worth $200, is 100% complete, and actually cost $200. Task B is worth $75, is 90% complete, and actually cost $120 so far. Task C is worth $200, is 75% complete, and has cost $175 so far. The total budget is $475. What is the total Cost Variance for the tasks listed? Cost Variance (CV) = BCWP ACWP = EV AC EV of project = 200 + 67.5 + 150 = $417.50 Actual Cost = A + B + C = $200 + 120 + 175 = $495 CV = 417.50 495 = -$77.50 This project looks like it will be over budget
Example: Another example You have a contract to build 4 kms of railroad track in 4 months for $4M. After 3 months, only 1 km is complete and you have spent $2M Cost Variance (CV) = BCWP ACWP = EV AC EV = BCWP = $1M, Actual Cost = $2M, BCWS = $3M, BAC = $4M CV = BCWP ACWP = 1M 2M = -$1M CV% = CV/BCWP = -$1M/$1M = -100% SV = BCWP BCWS = $1M - $3M = -$2M SV% = SV/BCWS = -$2M/$3M = -66% CPI = BCWP/ACWP = $1M/$2M =.5 SPI = BCWP/BCWS = $1M/$3M =.33 EAC = BAC x ACWP/BCWP = 4 x 2/1 = $8M
Additional Notes about EV Much of EV assumes that performance is constant throughout the project, or that if the pace of the project needs to change, that the new pace is constant Using cost figures to calculate EV is useful because cost can be an estimate of the size of tasks that have been completed or are to come The WBS is critical to EV Each WBS task must be discrete with defined start and finish dates It must have a tangible outcome which can be objectively observed Costs must be assigned to tasks WBS tasks should not be on-going tasks EV breaks down if the WBS tasks are too large
Additional Notes about EV Schedule Variance is not the whole picture Non-critical path tasks may have positive schedule variance when critical path tasks have negative variance If tasks on the critical path are behind, then so is the project So you need to know which tasks are on which path to provide a complete picture of the status Baseline costs and schedules EV effectively measures project status against the original baseline by comparing to budgeted costs and scheduled activities
Completion Criteria Completion Criteria define those criteria that determine if the task, product or step is complete What does it mean to be complete with the task? How do we know if it is done correctly? Three ways to assess completion Peer reviews: aka walk-throughs Peers review a product design, or task out put to see if it makes sense Group thinking about something is better than just one person thinking about it, because it adds perspective
Checklists Completion Criteria These help assemble previous learnings about tasks so that we can learn from the past. Passing a checklist review does not guarantee a fault-free project or task, but it at least brings past learnings to bear on the project Systematic testing Testing all or subcomponents of a project or product to ensure it works as designed Very common in the software industry
An example Lets check out an example by reviewing Chapter 12a