Beef and Cattle --- Market Situation and Outlook AAEA Extension Livestock Outlook Session, July 3, James Robb Director LMIC 655 Parfet Street Suite E31 Lakewood, CO 8215-5517 www.lmic.info $ Per Cwt. 83 KANSAS FEEDLOT CLOSEOUTS Feeding Costs per Cwt, Steers 78 73 68 21/5 63 58 53 48 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1
BOXED BEEF CUTOUT VALUE Choice 6-9 Lbs. Carcass, Weekly $ Per Cwt. 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 JAN APR JUL OCT $ Per Cwt. 1.6 STEER HIDE AND OFFAL VALUE Live Animal Basis, Weekly 1.1 9.6 9.1 8.6 8.1 7.6 JAN APR JUL OCT 2
SLAUGHTER STEER PRICES 5 Market Weighted Average, Weekly $ Per Cwt. 15 1 95 9 85 8 75 7 JAN APR JUL OCT $ Per Head 25 LIVE TO CUTOUT BEEF PRICE SPREAD Monthly 23 21 19 17 15 13 11 9 JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV 3
MED. & LRG. #1 STEER CALF PRICES 5-6 Pounds, Southern Plains, Weekly $ Per Cwt. 14 135 13 125 12 115 11 15 1 95 JAN APR JUL OCT Bil. Pounds 7. COMMERCIAL BEEF PRODUCTION Quarterly 6.6 21/5 6.2 5.8 5.4 JAN-MAR APR-JUN JUL-SEP OCT-DEC 28 4
Bil. Pounds 3. U S BEEF AND VEAL EXPORTS Carcass Weight, Annual 2.5 2. 1.5 1..5. 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 21 24 Pounds 8 U S BEEF CONSUMPTION Per Capita, Retail Weight, Annual 75 7 65 6 55 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 21 24 5
ANNUAL AVERAGE CATTLE PRICES $ Per Cwt 135 125 115 15 95 85 75 65 55 45 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 21 23 25 5-6lb Steer Calves 7-8lb Feeder Steers Fed Steers 6
$ Per Cow 15 COW-CALF RETURNS AND CATTLE INVENTORY U.S., Annual Mil. Head 115 1 5 11 15 Cow-Calf Returns -5-1 1978 198 1982 1984 1986 1988 199 1992 1994 1996 1998 2 22 24 1 95 9 Cattle Inventory Jan 1 7 Mil. Head HEIFERS HELD AS BEEF COW REPLACEMENTS July 1, U.S. 6 5-6 % 4 3 1977 198 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 21 24 7
CHANGE IN BEEF COW NUMBERS JANUARY 1, 1998 TO JANUARY 1, Canada, 1 Head - 16 29 391 13-52 -14 Prince Ed. Isl. Nova Scotia -2-3 Canada 646 13 to 391 (2) -2 to 13 (4) -52 to -2 (3) CHANGE IN BEEF COW NUMBERS JANUARY 1, TO JANUARY 1, Canada, 1 Head -35-63 -76-51 -29-12 Prince Ed. Isl. Nova Scotia 1 Canada -263.1 to.9 (2) -29 to.1 (4) -75.5 to -29 (4) 8
U S BEEF IMPORTS FROM CANADA Carcass Weight, Monthly Mil. Pounds 1 9 8 7 6 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC 1 MT 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 U.S. EXPORTS OF BEEF MUSCLE CUTS Weekly Jan-3 Jul-3 Jan-4 Jul-4 Jan-5 Jul-5 Jan-6 Jul-6 Jan-7 Jul-7 Canada Japan Mexico Korean Rep. 9
U S BEEF INDUSTRY NET EXPORT VALUES Annual Bil. $ 3 2 1-1 -2-3 1981 1984 1987 199 1993 1996 1999 22 25 Live Cattle Beef & Veal Hides & Skins Tallow, Grease & Var Meat Total Thou. Head 13 12 11 1 9 8 TOTAL COW SLAUGHTER Federally Inspected, Weekly 7 JAN APR JUL OCT 1
Pounds 128 126 124 122 12 118 116 LIVE WEIGHT -- STEER AND HEIFER Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle Area, Weekly 114 JAN APR JUL OCT Mil. Pounds 12 MAJOR U S BEEF IMPORT SOURCES Carcass Weight, Annual 1 8 6 4 2 2/4 25 Australia New Zealand Canada Argentina 11
Index Value 12 RETAIL CHOICE BEEF DEMAND INDEX Annual, Using CPI 198=1 1 8 6 1 94 88 86 83 79 76 7 69 66 65 63 59 58 56 55 53 51 5 52 53 56 55 59 63 61 57 4 2 198 1982 1984 1986 1988 199 1992 1994 1996 1998 2 22 24 12
CHOICE MINUS SELECT BEEF PRICES Carcass Cutout Value 6-9 Lbs., Weekly $ Per Cwt. 25 2 15 1 5 JAN APR JUL OCT CUTOUT VALUE Monthly $/Cwt 2 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 Jul-6 Sep-6 Nov-6 Jan-7 Mar-7 May-7 Prime Branded Choice Select Ungraded 13
PRIMAL LOIN VALUE Monthly $/Cwt 37 Prime 32 Branded 27 22 17 12 Jul-6 Sep-6 Nov-6 Jan-7 Mar-7 May-7 Choice Select Ungraded $/Cwt 12 CHUCK VALUE COMPARISON Monthly 115 Prime 11 15 Branded 1 Choice 95 9 Jan-6 Mar-6 May-6 Jul-6 Sep-6 Nov-6 Jan-7 Mar-7 May-7 Jul-7 Select 14
$/Cwt 375 355 335 315 295 275 255 235 215 195 175 LOIN VALUE COMPARISON Monthly Jan-6 Mar-6 May-6 Jul-6 Sep-6 Nov-6 Jan-7 Mar-7 May-7 Jul-7 Prime Branded Choice Select $ Per Cwt. 77 72 67 62 57 52 47 WHOLESALE BEEF RIB ROLL PRICES 2 In.-Lip On, Weekly 42 JAN APR JUL OCT 15
$ Per Cwt. 17 16 15 14 13 WHOLESALE BEEF CHUCK PRICES Boneless 2 Piece, Weekly 12 11 JAN APR JUL OCT $ Per Cwt. 16 155 15 145 14 135 13 125 12 115 11 JAN WHOLESALE BONELESS BEEF PRICES Fresh, 9% Lean, Weekly APR JUL OCT 16
MARKET ISSUES Ethanol Mandatory COOL Swift Assets Farm Bill and Livestock What to Else Monitor Chicken! 17