Vocational Training: Victoria s Regions 2013

Vocational Training: s Regions 2013

Prepared by Training Participation and Facilitation Division Higher Education & Skills Group Department of Education and Early Childhood Development Melbourne June 2014 State of (Department of Education and Early Childhood Development) 2014 The copyright in this document is owned by the State of (Department of Education and Early Childhood Development), or in the case of some materials, by third parties (third party materials). No part may be reproduced by any process except in accordance with the provisions of the Copyright Act 1968, the National Education Access Licence for Schools (NEALS) (see below) or with permission. An educational institution situated in Australia which is not conducted for profit, or a body responsible for administering such an institution may copy and communicate the materials, other than third party materials, for the educational purposes of the institution. Authorised by the Department of Educationand Early Childhood Development, 2 Treasury Place, East Melbourne,, 3002 ii Vocational Training: s Regions 2013

Contents INTRODUCTION DATA NOTES REGIONAL VICTORIA A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS iv x xi CENTRAL HIGHLANDS 1 GEELONG AND SURROUNDS 11 GIPPSLAND 20 GREAT SOUTH COAST 29 HUME 38 LODDON MALLEE NORTH 47 LODDON MALLEE SOUTH 55 WIMMERA SOUTHERN MALLEE 63 METROPOLITAN MELBOURNE A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS 72 EASTERN METROPOLITAN 76 NORTHERN METROPOLITAN 84 SOUTHERN METROPOLITAN 92 WESTERN METROPOLITAN 101 INNER METROPOLITAN 109 APPENDIX ABBREVIATIONS 117 APPENDIX GLOSSARY 118 APPENDIX REFERENCES 119 LODDON MALLEE NORTH WIMMERA SOUTHERN MALLEE LODDON MALLEE SOUTH HUME GREAT SOUTH COAST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS NORTHERN METROPOLITAN WESTERN EASTERN METROPOLITAN METROPOLITAN INNER METROPOLITAN SOUTHERN METROPOLITAN GIPPSLAND GEELONG AND SURROUNDS

Introduction The n vocational training system has undergone a number of changes over the past few years. Central allocation of funding ceased in 2008 and instead, funding was driven by student demand. A new training entitlement the n Training Guarantee (VTG), was progressively rolled out between 2009 and 2011. Under this system, eligible students enrolled in courses on offer through TAFE institutes, dual sector universities, community education providers (Learn Locals) and private training providers. While this encouraged a large increase in participation, it became evident that this activity was not always in areas likely to lead to a job. Consequently, in 2012, the Government introduced Refocusing Vocational Training (RVT) reforms, targeting government subsidies to specialised training and courses related to projected employment growth and skills shortages. Overview Vocational Training: s Regions 2013, produced by the Department of Education and Early Childhood Development (DEECD), provides a summary of n training market performance and alignment to skill needs across s regions. The report combines regional intelligence and economic analysis with training data to form a comprehensive picture of the relationship between regional skills needs, employment opportunities and skills training. The report includes 13 training market profiles covering the following regions 1 : Regional : Central Highlands; Geelong and Surrounds; Gippsland; Great South Coast; Hume; Loddon Mallee North; Loddon Mallee South; Wimmera Southern Mallee; Metropolitan Melbourne: Eastern Metropolitan; Inner Metropolitan; Northern Metropolitan; Southern Metropolitan; Western Metropolitan. Each of the training profiles examines the following areas: Economic context including employment patterns, economic output and workforce needs broken down by demographics, occupations and industries. Overview of key industry drivers of changing skills and training needs. Training breakdown of significant trends in specific occupations, qualifications and student demographics. Discussion on the training challenges and opportunities gleaned from industry intelligence including structural changes. Training alignment to areas of shortage and strategic need, and skills needs in n industries and regions. Economic Context The n economy continues to perform positively in the face of economic challenges linked to weaker global economic conditions and a high Australian dollar. The outlook remains sound, but the economic climate has resulted in large reductions in projected government revenue 2. Several n industries are undergoing structural change, transitioning from an industrial economy to a knowledge intensive, globalised economy led by a rapidly growing services sector. n industries are increasingly challenged by competition from cheaper international markets and high levels of innovation on a global scale. The high Australian dollar has restrained the economy, given many key industries are dependent on the currency, including Manufacturing. Despite recent challenges, there are growing signs that the n economy is improving. Low interest rates are providing support to consumer spending and the housing sector. Additionally, a weakening Australian dollar is also alleviating s trade-exposed industries. In 2012 13, the n economy totalled $337 billion in Gross State Product, accounting for 22 per cent of the national economy marginally below s 25 per cent share of the national population (with 5.6 million people) 3. plays host to nearly a quarter of Australia s workforce, with approximately 2.9 million people in employment in 2013. Over the past five years, has added more than 263,000 workers, with metropolitan Melbourne contributing the largest share of this job growth 75 per cent. Looking ahead, the n economy is expected to add approximately 230,000 workers over the next five years. To realise this employment growth potential, will need to continue to invest in the skills and capabilities of its people. 1 These regions follow the regional definitions as outlined by Regional Development (RDV) (http://www.rdv.vic.gov.au/victorian-regions). It also includes areas supported by the Regional Market Facilitation Managers under DEECD s Industry Participation Model. 2 Department of Premier and Cabinet (2013) Securing s Economy 3 Department of State Development, Business and Innovation (2013) Industry Atlas of iv Vocational Training: s Regions 2013

Table 1.1:Distribution of employment, five-year trends, Region Employment 2012-13 Share of total employment 5-yr historical tends to 2012-13 # 5-yr forecast trends to 2017-18 # % # % Metropolitan Melbourne 2,157,300 75% 196,300 10% 180,500 8% Regional 728,000 25% 66,900 10% 48,600 7% Total employment 2,885,300 100% 263,200 10% 229,100 8% Source: Centre of Policy Studies, Monash University (2013) Labour Force Projections Demand for higher-level qualifications has also grown, with the demand for higher-level skills growing at 2.5 times the rate of unskilled jobs 4. To meet this demand, State and Commonwealth governments have focused on raising the qualification profile of Australians over the last decade. Higher level vocational training qualifications (Cert III and above) provide entry to higher skilled jobs and to further study, with vocational skills remaining essential to the n economy and helping drive economic activity across the State. Figure 1.1: Disbribution of employment by qualification level, 2012-13 Metropolitan Melbourne 39% 3 30% Regional 43% 33% 2 Total employment 40% 32% 28% No post-school quals Vocational quals Higher education quals Source: Centre of Policy Studies, Monash University (2013) Labour Force Projections Growth in demand for higher level qualifications is expected to continue into the future, across all regions of. This is being driven by Melbourne s knowledge-based businesses as well as regional s emerging service industries. Similarly, s traditional industry strengths of Manufacturing and Agriculture are looking to higher order skills in support of ongoing transition into higher value-added production. Increased educational attainment and training to build human capital will lead to improvements in labour market participation, productivity and economic growth. The Department of Education and Early Childhood Development seeks to achieve this by making a world leader in learning and development over the next ten years 5. Figure 1.2: Projected change in employment by qualification level, 2012-13 to 2017-18 1 10% 1 1 13% 13% 17% 15% 17% 17% 15% 16% -3% -3% -3% No post school quals Certificate I or II Certificate III or IV Diploma+ Higher education Metro Melbourne Regional Total Source: Centre of Policy Studies, Monash University (2013) Labour Force Projections 4 Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet (2012) Skills For All Australians, www.dpmc.gov.au/publications/skills_for_all_australians/ 5 Department of Education and Early Childhood Development (2013) DEECD 2013-17 Strategic Plan Vocational Training: s Regions 2013 v

Training Alignment Like all formal education, participation in vocational training has a range of benefits for both the student and the wider community. A significant proportion of training in the vocational sector expressly teaches foundation skills or courses which lead to educational advancement. At base, however, a vocational training system must be assessed on how well it equips its graduates for work. This is relevant both for employers and the local economies in each region, which rely on training to provide skilled workers, and for the students themselves, who have a reasonable expectation to perform strongly in the local employment market. DEECD considers four pillars of vocational benefit in its analysis of training market alignment: 1. Alignment to areas of shortage and strategic need: has training delivery grown in areas of identified skills shortages, and specialised occupations which reflect areas of strategic need for skills in regions? 2. Alignment with skills needs in regions: has training delivery responded to economic variations in each region? 3. Alignment with industry needs: has training delivery been broadly aligned at the regional level with employment and economic trends and forecasts across key regional industries? 4. Alignment to student and employer need: based on comprehensive NCVER surveys, has training been of a sufficient quality to enable students to find work, and are employers satisfied with the level of training 6? Table 1.2: Training alignment summary Training Alignment Industry needs Analysis of 2013 data shows a high correlation between share of employment and share of training delivery in s largest six industries. Specialised and/ or in shortage occupations Skills needs in regions Employer and student needs 60 per cent of training was delivered in the six highest employing n industry sectors, which account for 59 per cent of all n jobs - Health Care and Social Assistance, Retail Trade, Manufacturing, Professional, Scientific and Technical Services, Construction and Education and Training. 41 per cent of industry-specific enrolments related to specialised or in shortage occupations in 2013. This represents a growth of 8 percentage points from 2008. Enrolments related to specialised or in shortage occupations were highest in Health Care and Social Assistance (91 per cent), Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services (82 per cent) and Construction (71 per cent). The top five highest employing industries in regional include Health Care and Social Assistance (13 per cent), Retail Trade (12 per cent), Manufacturing (10 per cent), Construction (9 per cent) and Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing (9 per cent). Four out of the top five highest employing industries in regional, also rank in the top five in terms of government subsidised training delivery in regional. They include Construction (22 per cent), Health Care and Social Assistance (19 per cent), Transport, Postal and Warehousing (13 per cent), Manufacturing (9 per cent) and Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing (6 per cent). 73 per cent of employers were satisfied with VET system. 76 per cent of students reported job-related benefit from VET. Alignment to industry needs Figure 1.3 shows employment and government subsidised enrolments ranked by industry share of n employment for 2012-13. Analysis of 2013 data shows a high correlation between the share of employment and the share of training delivery in s largest six industries. Sixty per cent of training was delivered in the six highest employing n industries, which account for 59 per cent of all n jobs. They include Health Care and Social Assistance, Retail Trade, Manufacturing, Professional, Scientific and Technical Services, Construction and Education and Training. Alignment to industry needs is explored in greater detail in DEECD s Vocational Training: s Industry Report 2013, while industry alignment within each of s regions is examined in the following chapters. 6 With regards to Pillar Four, Alignment to student and employer need, data is not currently granular enough to support analysis of training alignment within each of s regions. DEECD s Vocational Training: s Industry Report 2013 considers this area of training alignment in more detail. vi Vocational Training: s Regions 2013

Figure 1.3: Industry share of n employment and vocational training, 2013, Employment 2013 (% total) Enrolements 2013 (% total) Health Care and Social Assistance 12% Health Care and Social Assistance 23% Retail Trade 1 Retail Trade Manufacturing 10% Manufacturing 1 Professional, Scientific and Technical Services 9% Professional, Scientific and Technical Services 3% Construction 8% Construction 16% Education and Training 8% Education and Training 3% Accommodation and Food Services 6% Accommodation and Food Services 8% Transport, Postal and Warehousing 5% Transport, Postal and Warehousing 12% Public Administration and Safety 5% Public Administration and Safety 2% Wholesale Trade 5% Wholesale Trade 0.3% Financial and Insurance Services Financial and Insurance Services Other Services Other Services 5% Administrative and Support Services 3% Administrative and Support Services Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing 3% Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing 2% Information Media and Telecommunications 2% Information Media and Telecommunications Arts and Recreation Services 2% Arts and Recreation Services Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services 2% Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services 0. Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services 0.2% Mining 0.5% Mining 0. Source: Centre of Policy Studies, Monash University (2013) Labour Force Projections; SV Training System Alignment to specialised and/or in shortage occupations Alignment with specialised and/or in shortage occupations in is considered by analysing how vocational training delivery in 2013 corresponds to the occupational skills requirements of the n economy. In particular, it considers the extent to which training undertaken by individuals exercising their training entitlement aligns or responds to the n economy s needs for specialist skills or occupations with reported skills shortages. Overall, 41 per cent of industry-specific enrolments related to specialised or in shortage occupations in 2013. This represents a growth of 9 percentage points from 2012. Enrolments aligned to specialised occupations or those experiencing skills shortages have increased in a majority of regions between 2012 and 2013. Specialised occupations Uses the Australian Workforce and Productivity Agency Specialised Occupation List 7, which is used to inform the skilled migration program. These occupations have a long lead-time for training, high economic value and a significant match between training and employment. In shortage occupations Uses the 2012 8 DEECD Skills Shortage List. List compiled with reference to reports from n industry training bodies and direct consultation with industry groups and workforce planning agencies. National advice included where it had relevance to. 7 Australian Workforce and Productivity Agency (2013) Specialised Occupation List, http://www.awpa.gov.au/our-work/labour-market-information/ specialised-occupations-list/pages/default.aspx 8 DEECD (2012) Skills Shortages 2012, http://www.education.vic.gov.au/ training/employers/industry/pages/needs.aspx DEECD will be releasing a new Skills Shortage List at the end of Q1 2014 Vocational Training: s Regions 2013 vii

The highest proportion of enrolments related to specialised or in shortage occupations were in the Wimmera Southern Mallee (56 per cent), Loddon Mallee South (54 per cent) and Hume (49 per cent) regions. All regions, with the exception of Northern Metropolitan which has remained static, have seen a shift in training delivery towards these areas of need, with the proportion of enrolments aligned to specialised occupations or those in skill shortage areas increasing in 2013. The table below provides a summary of government subsidised enrolments in specialised and in shortage courses by region from 2012 to 2013. Table 1.3: Enrolments aligned to specialised or in shortage occupations, government subsidised, 2012 2013 # specialised/in shortage enrolments % of all enrolments 2012 2013 2012 2013 Central Highlands 5,000 5,300 42% 49% Geelong and Surrounds 11,800 12,600 32% 45% Gippsland 6,000 5,600 4 47% Great South Coast 3,400 4,300 35% 46% Hume 9,600 16,600 36% 49% Loddon Mallee North 4,200 5,600 3 4 Loddon Mallee South 6,400 5,100 47% 5 Wimmera Southern Mallee 1,100 1,200 49% 56% Eastern Metro 17,100 16,500 33% 38% Inner Metro 32,200 38,600 20% 32% Northern Metro 24,300 22,600 49% 49% Southern Metro 23,000 26,900 36% 43% Western Metro 15,500 21,600 39% 43% TOTAL 162,100 184,400 32% 4 Alignment to skills needs in regions The top five highest employing industries in regional include Health Care and Social Assistance (13 per cent), Retail Trade (12 per cent), Manufacturing (10 per cent), Construction (9 per cent) and Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing (9 per cent). Four out of the top five highest employing industries in regional, also rank in the top five in terms of government subsidised training delivery in regional. The top five industries in terms of enrolments in regional include Construction (21 per cent), Health Care and Social Assistance (19 per cent), Transport, Postal and Warehousing (13 per cent), Manufacturing (9 per cent) and Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing (6 per cent) 9. In metropolitan Melbourne, the leading employing industries are Health Care (12 per cent), Retail Trade (11 per cent), Manufacturing (10 per cent), Professional, Scientific and Technical Services (10 per cent) and Construction (8 per cent). Three of these highest employing industries also rank in the top five in terms of government subsidised training delivery. The top five industries in terms of enrolments in Melbourne include Health Care (23 per cent), Construction (14 per cent), Manufacturing (12 per cent), Transport (11 per cent) and Accommodation and Food Services (9 per cent). 9 Note: excludes Cross-Industry training viii Vocational Training: s Regions 2013

Table 1.4: Regional distribution of employment by industry, 2012-13, Industry Metro Melbourne Regional Total Employment # % # % 2012-13 Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing 15,100 19% 63,900 8 79,000 Mining 7,900 55% 6,500 45% 14,400 Manufacturing 224,900 76% 72,000 2 296,900 Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste 22,100 6 12,700 36% 34,800 Construction 173,600 72% 66,600 28% 240,200 Wholesale Trade 106,100 8 24,700 19% 130,800 Retail Trade 240,100 73% 87,500 27% 327,600 Accommodation and Food Services 132,700 73% 48,500 27% 181,200 Transport, Postal and Warehousing 106,400 77% 31,000 23% 137,400 Information Media and Telecoms 52,300 85% 9,500 15% 61,800 Financial and Insurance Services 102,200 88% 14,500 12% 116,700 Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services 35,500 79% 9,200 2 44,700 Professional, Scientific and Technical 214,100 86% 33,500 1 247,600 Administrative and Support Services 78,000 8 18,000 19% 96,000 Public Administration and Safety 96,600 72% 36,700 28% 133,300 Education and Training 173,400 7 59,800 26% 233,200 Health Care and Social Assistance 249,800 73% 94,100 27% 343,900 Arts and Recreation Services 46,200 80% 11,900 20% 58,100 Other Services 80,500 75% 27,100 25% 107,600 All industries 2,157,300 75% 728,000 25% 2,885,300 Source: Centre of Policy Studies, Monash University (2013) Labour Force Projections Table 1.5: Regional distribution of enrolments by industry, government subsidised, 2013, Industry Metro Melbourne Regional Total Enrolments # % # % 2013 Accommodation and Food Services 24,200 80% 5,900 19% 30,300 Administrative and Support Services 13,200 85% 2,300 15% 15,600 Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing 1,300 15% 7,000 83% 8,300 Arts and Recreation Services 10,400 65% 5,100 32% 15,900 Construction 38,200 60% 23,700 37% 62,700 Education and Training 8,200 6 4,400 3 12,700 Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services 700 86% 100 1 800 Financial and Insurance Services 2,900 9 100 3% 3,100 Health Care and Social Assistance 64,900 7 20,800 2 87,300 Information Media and Telecommunications 2,500 76% 700 22% 3,300 Manufacturing 32,600 75% 10,100 23% 43,500 Mining 100 23% 300 77% 400 Other Services 14,400 68% 6,600 3 21,100 Professional, Scientific and Technical Services 8,600 82% 1,900 18% 10,500 Public Administration and Safety 6,700 82% 1,400 17% 8,100 Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services 1,600 92% 40 2% 1,700 Retail Trade 9,800 6 5,400 35% 15,400 Transport, Postal and Warehousing 29,700 6 14,700 32% 46,100 Wholesale Trade 900 90% 100 10% 1,000 All industries (includes Cross-Industry) 10 321,900 72% 118,400 26% 448,100 Note: regional distribution may not sum to industry totals due to non-region specific training delivery (e.g. online) 10 Cross-Industry is an industry classification which includes business and related skills which are transferable across the whole range of industries. It includes eight subsectors: Accounting Services; Business Administration; Business Management; Human Resources; International Business; Information Technology; Occupational Health and Safety; Project Management; Quality and Sales, Marketing and Public Relations. Training aligned to these skill areas are considered separately as they do not align to any one standard industry classification; instead, they support businesses across s industries. Vocational Training: s Regions 2013 ix

Data Notes Data and Time Periods The main source of vocational training statistics in this publication is the training activity database referred to as the Skills Training System (SVTS). All government subsidised providers are required to submit their data using SVTS at least once a month in accordance with the Australian Vocational Education and Training Management Information Statistical Standard (AVETMISS). For TAFE institutes, there is an additional regulatory requirement that they also submit their fee for service training data. Data in this report are based on a snapshot in time and based on data as reported to Higher Education and Skills Group (HESG) in the Department by training providers. Figures may differ to those in previous publications as DEECD is continuously updating classification to improve data quality and consistency across years. Reporting Scope This report includes government subsidised activities in all sectors at all qualification levels, and domestic fee for service activities in the TAFE sector at Australian Qualification Framework (Certificate I and above). Fee for service activities below Certificate I in the domestic TAFE sector are not included, such as short courses. Fee for service activities that took place in the private training provider and Learn Local sectors are also outside the scope of this report. Occupation categories in this report are based on the latest Australian and New Zealand Standard Classification of Occupation (ANZSCO) at the six-digit level. Data shown in the tables are rounded to the nearest 100 when the figures are greater than 1,000; to the nearest 50 when they are between 100 and 1,000; and to the nearest 10 when they are less than 100. The percentage changes between 2008 and 2013, and 2012 and 2013 are calculated based on unrounded data. The 2013 data were extracted from SVTS as at 22 January 2014. Figures may be revised slightly prior to submission to National Centre for Vocational Education and Research (NCVER). x Vocational Training: s Regions 2013

Regional A Comparative Analysis This chapter provides an overview of the training market in regional painting a comprehensive summary of the relationship between regional skills needs and training, as well as the levels of engagement by different student groups including learners facing barriers to participation in education or the workforce. Background Regional cities and communities play a key role in driving the growth and prosperity of. Regional has an open and diverse economy and is the primary source of the State s agricultural output, food production and processing, energy and mineral resources 11. Agriculture and food processing are central to the prosperity of regional. With considered the food bowl of Australia, the Government is investing significantly to further increase the competitiveness, efficiency and export capacity of the industry. However, the structure of regional economies has been shifting over time, with service industries driving employment growth in recent years. Service industries Health Care and Social Assistance, Retail Trade, Accommodation and Food Services, Public Administration and Safety and Education and Training comprised regional s top five industries in terms of employment growth between 2008 and 2013, accounting for more than 60 per cent of new jobs over this period 12. One distinct characteristic of the n regional economy is its labour force and demographic structure. Most parts of the regional economy currently face an ageing workforce combined with uneven population growth. While population in parts of regional particularly in major regional centres is forecast to increase, the population in many of s rural communities is expected to decline. These demographic challenges are also exacerbated by youth migration to regional hubs or metropolitan areas in search of training, employment or lifestyle opportunities. These demographic changes have the potential to lead to skills and labour shortages as the working age population contracts. A key challenge for regional training systems will be to develop the skills of the local population to meet the future needs of employers as the labour market adjusts to regional changes in the industry structure. Students in regional now have more choice in where they study due to increasing numbers of providers delivering government subsidised training and, in the majority of regions; student participation in vocational training is increasing. This represents positive progress towards building the skills capacity of s regions into the future. Vocational training enrolment patterns The training market in regional has seen significant growth between 2008 and 2013, with a 37 per cent increase in government subsidised enrolments. TAFE fee for service activity also experienced growth, rising by 26 per cent between 2008 and 2013. Government subsidised enrolment growth has been significant across the majority of regional, with six of the eight regions experiencing positive growth over the past five years. Table 2.1: Vocational training enrolments by region, government subsidised, 2008-2013 Region 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Central Highlands 10,600 12,800 11,800 14,200 15,500 14,700 Geelong and Surrounds 17,200 19,200 23,100 35,200 46,000 35,500 Gippsland 26,700 22,400 22,500 20,500 19,700 18,000 Great South Coast 11,600 12,600 12,700 14,800 16,600 16,500 Hume 29,100 26,000 24,700 27,300 34,400 47,100 Loddon Mallee North 9,900 12,400 11,700 14,900 18,700 18,400 Loddon Mallee South 13,600 15,600 16,700 17,900 18,500 14,800 Wimmera Southern Mallee 4,000 3,500 3,200 3,000 3,400 3,200 Regional 122,700 124,300 126,200 147,700 172,300 167,800 381,300 376,800 426,900 548,700 670,400 645,000 Note: Enrolments with delivery in more than one region have been counted in each relevant location. Duplicates have been removed from Regional and n totals. 11 Committee for Economic Development of (2013) Reinventing the Regions s Changing Regional Economics 12 Centre of Policy Studies, Monash University (2013) Labour Force Projections Vocational Training: s Regions 2013 xi

Figure 2.1: Vocational training enrolments by region, government subsidised, 2013 47,100 35,500 14,700 18,000 16,500 18,400 14,800 3,200 Central Highlands Geelong and Surrounds Gippsland Great South Coast Hume Loddon Mallee North Loddon Mallee South Wimmera Southern Mallee TAFE fee for service enrolments have also increased over the period 2008 to 2013. The Great South Coast (15 per cent), Geelong and Surrounds (14 per cent) and Loddon Mallee South (10 per cent) regions have experienced the strongest fee for service enrolment growth since 2008. Gippsland and Loddon Mallee North experienced minor declines in TAFE fee for service enrolments. Table 2.2: Vocational training enrolments by region, TAFE domestic fee for service, 2008-2013 Region 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Central Highlands 2,100 2,200 2,100 2,000 2,200 2,500 Geelong and Surrounds 3,000 4,000 3,600 3,100 6,100 5,700 Gippsland 6,700 6,900 7,300 8,600 9,500 5,600 Great South Coast 1,900 2,100 2,500 4,100 4,700 3,900 Hume 9,200 9,300 12,200 11,400 13,600 11,800 Loddon Mallee North 2,700 2,300 2,100 2,100 2,100 2,200 Loddon Mallee South 2,100 2,400 1,900 1,900 4,300 3,300 Wimmera Southern Mallee 500 900 1,000 950 900 550 Regional 28,300 19,300 21,300 20,700 22,000 15,500 89,400 100,800 103,700 102,200 124,700 116,800 Note: Enrolments falling within more than one region have been counted in each relevant location Figure 2.2: Vocational training enrolments by region, TAFE domestic fee for service, 2013 11,800 2,500 5,700 5,600 3,900 2,200 3,300 550 Central Highlands Geelong and Surrounds Gippsland Great South Coast Hume Loddon Mallee North Loddon Mallee South Wimmera Southern Mallee Profile by provider type Greater choice of training providers was evident across regional, as the number of providers offering government subsidised training has increased since the implementation of training market reforms in 2008. The number of private providers in particular has grown strongly throughout. xii Vocational Training: s Regions 2013

There were 349 training providers delivering government subsidised training across regional in 2013 13. Figure 2.3 shows the number of training providers delivering in each region across. Hume (126 training providers), Geelong and Surrounds (124 training providers) and Loddon Mallee South (117 training providers) had the highest number of training providers. The number of training providers delivering government subsidised training in the Melbourne regions has more than doubled over the past five years. Training delivery by private training providers increased in most regions in 2013, with the exception of Loddon Mallee North and Gippsland. TAFE institutes delivered over half of government subsidised training in regional, with the Hume (72 per cent) and Great South Coast (68 per cent) regions having the highest proportion of TAFE delivery. Learn Local delivery also accounted for a high proportion of training in regional. Wimmera Southern Mallee (40 per cent) and Loddon Mallee North (28 per cent) had the highest proportion of Learn Local delivery across s regions. Table 2.3: Share of vocational training enrolments by region and provider type, government subsidised, 2013 Region TAFE Learn Local Private RTO Central Highlands 35% 1 5 Geelong and Surrounds 39% 16% 45% Gippsland 57% 19% 2 Great South Coast 68% 8% 23% Hume 72% 9% 19% Loddon Mallee North 33% 28% 39% Loddon Mallee South 5 15% 33% Wimmera Southern Mallee 16% 40% 4 Regional 53% 15% 32% 40% 1 48% Figure 2.3: Vocational training providers by region, government subsidised, 2008 and 2013 41 104 40 124 72 115 28 65 74 126 40 87 48 117 24 50 Central Highlands Geelong and Surrounds Gippsland Great South Coast Hume Loddon Mallee North Loddon Mallee South Wimmera Southern Mallee 2008 2013 13 Note training providers can deliver in more than one region Vocational Training: s Regions 2013 xiii

Student engagement and wellbeing The average participation rate 14 in vocational training across regional was 14 per cent in 2013, higher than that of metropolitan Melbourne (12 per cent). The highest rates of participation in vocational training in regional n areas included Loddon Mallee North (17 per cent), Great South Coast, Geelong and Surrounds and Hume (15 per cent in each region). The vocational training participation rate has increased across a majority of the regions over the five years since 2008, reaffirming the increasing importance of education and training in supporting skills needs of regional n businesses and individuals. Figure 2.4: Regional vocational training participation rate, 2008 and 2013 9% 13% 10% 15% 15% 13% 13% 12% 12% 15% 1 17% 12% 12% 13% 1 1 10% 8% 12% Central Highlands Geelong and Surrounds Gippsland Great South Coast Hume Loddon Loddon Mallee Wimmera Mallee North South Southern Mallee Regional 2008 Participation rate 2013 Participation rate A diversified student population is engaging with vocational training across regional. By gender, there was near parity with 45 per cent participation by females in regional. Youth participation (15 to 19 years of age) at 25 per cent and mature age (45 years and over) participation at 20 per cent were both higher than the n average. Learners facing barriers to participation are actively engaged in vocational education and training with growing representation across critical groups such as Indigenous students, students with a disability and Culturally and Linguistically Diverse (CALD) students. There were approximately 3,400 Indigenous students, 13,100 students with a disability and 9,000 Culturally and Linguistically Diverse (CALD) students in the vocational training sector. The proportion of Indigenous students and students reporting a disability was higher in regional than across as a whole, comprising 3 per cent and 10 per cent of the regional student population respectively. Conversely, Culturally and Linguistically Diverse (CALD) students were slightly underrepresented in regional (7 per cent of the student population compared with a n average of 29 per cent). The vocational training sector continues to be an important pathway to employment, with 30,000 unemployed students engaged in government subsidised training. Across all regions, the proportion of unemployed students has increased over the five years from 2008 to 2013. 14 Vocational training participation rate is calculated based on resident working-age (15 64) student population as a proportion of the total resident working-age population. The 2012 estimated resident population published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (Cat 3235.0) are used to calculate participation rates in 2013, as 2013 population data are not available until 2014. For consistency, historical values are derived using each year s student age population over its previous year s resident working-age population. xiv Vocational Training: s Regions 2013

Table 2.4: Resident students by region and characteristics (% total), government subsidised, 2013 Region CALD Student with Disability Indigenous Female Unemployed Youth (15-19) Mature age (45+) Central Highlands 10% 2% 43% 25% 25% 18% Geelong and 10% 1 4 25% 23% 20% Surrounds Gippsland 1 3% 47% 23% 26% 19% Great South Coast 3% 10% 2% 42% 19% 30% 19% Hume 10% 9% 3% 45% 22% 25% 2 Loddon Mallee 8% 9% 7% 4 22% 2 23% North Loddon Mallee 5% 1 2% 46% 25% 26% 19% South Wimmera Southern 6% 9% 4 15% 25% 23% Mallee Regional 7% 10% 3% 45% 23% 25% 20% 29% 8% 47% 28% 22% 19% Vocational Training: s Regions 2013 xv

Central Highlands Region overview The Central Highlands region includes the local government areas of Ararat Rural City, City of Ballarat, Golden Plains, Hepburn, Moorabool, and Pyrenees. The Central Highlands region has three distinct areas: Ballarat (the region s largest settlement area), the east (within commuting distance of Melbourne) and the western area (which is predominantly rural). The region has highly productive agricultural and horticultural land in the west, used for broad acre grazing and cropping with some areas of intensive agriculture and viticulture. In addition, the region s rich goldmining history, Aboriginal cultural heritage and diverse landscapes attract many visitors and new residents. The region s diversity and strength is reflected in its strong economic performance compared to the rest of the State. Over the past decade, the region has seen the highest growth in Gross Value Added (GVA) in regional, averaging 2.3 per cent per annum. The Manufacturing industry, especially the Transport Equipment, Fabricated Metal Products, Food Product and Machinery and Equipment Manufacturing sub-sectors, is a strong part of the region s economy. Manufacturing also has strong linkages to the Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing industry, with approximately 31 per cent of Manufacturing industry value added contributed by the Food Product Manufacturing sub-sector. Population driven industries such as Health Care and Social Assistance, Construction, Education and Training and Retail Trade are also key drivers of economic growth in the region. The City of Ballarat plays an important role in the region s economic performance. Over the past decade, Ballarat has performed at or above regional s averages across key growth indicators. It has also been named the most competitive location in Australia for the delivery of IT and business process services 15. The strength of the sector is derived from the high number of Information and Communications Technology firms located in the city, coupled with the Federation University Australia Technology Park. The strong integration between industry, local and State governments, aimed at facilitating current and future investment of business process delivery in the region, is also vital for the industry s growth. The region s access to nature-based tourism and wind energy provides the potential for the region to develop its Tourism offer and to diversify and expand the production of clean energy. Growth opportunities exist within Moorabool, Ballarat, Hepburn, Pyrenees and the Bacchus ALLEE sham ern ans T SOUTH COAST Moyne Northern Wimmera CENTRAL HIGHLANDS Ararat Pyrenees Marsh Irrigation District to develop agricultural production and exports and increase productivity. The State Government s research and development programs offer opportunities for the region s Food and Fibre sector, as well as the production of high value-added agricultural products. Table 3.1: Key indicators MALLEE SOUTH Central Goldfields Golden Plains Corangamite GEELONG AND SURROUNDS Colac- Ballarat Hepburn Central Highlands Greater Bendigo Mount Alexander Moorabool Macedon Ranges Greater Geelong Queenscliffe METROPOLIT Regional Mitchell Shepparto Strathbo Gross Value Added growth 2002-2012 2.3% 0. 2.8% Employment growth 2002-2012 2. 1.6% 2.3% Population growth 2002-2012 1. 0.9% 1.6% Unemployment rate Dec-12 5.9% 5.7% 5.5% Labour force participation rate 2011 62.6% 61.6% 64.8% Source: National Institute of Economic and Industry Research, Australian Bureau of Statistics, Department of Employment The residential population of Central Highlands is approximately 178,600. Population has grown at an average rate of 1.4 per cent per annum over the last decade, the highest rate of population growth in regional and driven primarily by the municipality of Ballarat. Population growth is expected to continue over the next decade, with projected growth of 1.6 per cent a year higher than average growth rates in both regional and the State as a whole (1.3 per cent and 1.5 per cent respectively). Population growth is expected to be uneven across the region, however, with the largest growth in Ballarat and, to a lesser extent, Golden Plains and Moorabool. Similarly, population ageing will be experienced in varying degrees across the region, with the disparity between urban centres such as Ballarat and an older population in more rural areas expected to increase in the years ahead. Mur 15 CapioIT (2012), Ballarat strikes gold Named the number one location for domestic IT services delivery in Australia 1 Vocational Training: s Regions 2013

While economic and employment growth in the region overall has been high, there remain pockets of the region which are experiencing significant disadvantage, including intergenerational unemployment and long-term underemployment. A critical issue identified by the Highlands Local Learning and Employment Network is to engage with those affected to break this cycle. Central Highlands faces a challenge in the medium to long term around human capital development, responding to the need for new or emerging skills in the regional workforce, as well as enabling investment and innovation to further strengthen and diversify strategic industries for the region. The City of Ballarat has recently completed a comprehensive Ballarat Regional Capital Plan, that aims to promote investment in the region over the coming years and target job creation in growth areas. Training and education will be vital to meet the demand of skills in targeted growth areas. Table 3.2: Vocational training delivery, government subsidised enrolments, 2008 2013 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Central Highlands enrolments 10,600 12,800 11,800 14,200 15,500 14,700 Year-on-year % change Central Highlands) - 20% -8% 20% 9% -5% Year-on-year % change (Regional ) - 2% 17% 17% -3% Year-on-year % change () - - 13% 29% 22% - Vocational training delivery in the region comprised 14,700 government subsidised enrolments in 2013. This comprises 2 per cent of total government subsidised training delivery in, slightly below Central Highlands share of the total n population (3 per cent). Regional TAFE fee for service enrolments were 2,500 in 2013. Enrolments in government subsidised vocational training have increased significantly since 2008, growing at an average of 7 per cent per annum, faster than the growth rate in regional population. Skills overview Industries In 2011, Health Care and Social Assistance, Retail Trade, Manufacturing and Education and Training were the largest employing industries in Central Highlands, accounting for almost half of the region s total employment. Over the last five years, the Health Care industry has experienced the largest jobs growth in the region. Public Administration and Safety, Professional, Scientific and Technical Services and Construction have also seen strong growth over this period, while Manufacturing and Agriculture experienced the largest decline in employment. The region has seen a shift in employment towards the service industries, and this trend is expected to continue. Continued employment growth is anticipated in the Health Care, Professional Services, Education and Accommodation and Food Services industries. Employment in Manufacturing is expected to continue to struggle as it adjusts to structural change, while Agricultural employment is projected to stabilise in comparison with recent trends. Vocational Training: s Regions 2013 2

Occupations Employment by occupation in Central Highlands reflects the rise of the service industries in the region, with the highest proportion of employees working as Professionals (20 per cent of the workforce, the second highest proportion outside of the metropolitan Melbourne regions). By occupations, Professionals and Community and Personal Services Workers experienced the strongest growth. This reflects the overall employment growth in Health Care and Professional Services. Labourers experienced the highest rate of job loss, driven in part by the decline in Manufacturing and Agriculture. These trends are indicative of a requirement for a broader and deeper skill base among the region s workforce that is in line with broader trends at both the State and national level. Education and training The region s workforce has a relatively high proportion of workers holding vocational training qualifications when compared with the average for (see Figure 3.1). Approximately 34 per cent of workers in Central Highlands have vocational level qualifications compared to a n average of 31 per cent. The proportion of workers with higher education qualifications is lower than the n average (22 per cent compared with 29 per cent). When compared with other regions in rural, however, Central Highlands has the second highest proportion of workers holding higher education qualifications. The region has seen a shift towards a higher skills profile among its resident population in recent years, with an increasing proportion of residents holding tertiary education qualifications, while the proportion of the population with no post-school qualifications decreased between 2006 and 2011. Reflecting workforce trends in the region, the proportion of Year 12 (or equivalent) graduates enrolling in higher education is the highest among s rural regions at 46 per cent, although it remains below the n average of 52 per cent. The proportion of students entering directly into the workforce is 25 per cent, compared with 18 per cent in. Figure 3.1: Workforce qualification profile Figure 3.2: School-leaver destinations Higher education 22% 29% Bachelor degree Certificate I-III 6% 46% 52% Certificate I-IV Diploma + 10% 10% 25% 2 Certificate IV and above Apprenticeship or traineeship Employed (full or part time) 8% 13% 8% 8% 25% 18% No post-school qualifications 36% 40% Looking for work NILFET 5% Central Highlands Central Highlands Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2011 Census Source: DEECD, On Track Survey, 2012 3 Vocational Training: s Regions 2013

Regional training challenges The City of Ballarat is expected to experience continued strong population growth, with a projected population of more than 128,000 by 2031 (currently 97,000). The Ballarat West Growth Area and Ballarat West Employment Zone (BWEZ) developments are the City s key strategies for supporting this growth and the implications for future service provision, investment, employment and education. Education and training has a key role to play in supporting workforce participation and regional economic growth and it will be particularly important to align the provision of vocational and higher education to the emerging industries and occupations identified for attraction and investment. The BWEZ will contain a range of industrial, manufacturing, freight and logistics and commercial aviation businesses, among other business activities. Uses may include freight hub, warehousing, construction, wholesaling, food processing, research and development facilities and business support services. It is anticipated that the Employment Zone will provide over 3,900 industry-based jobs Manufacturing in Central Highlands, as elsewhere in, is undergoing transition. While industry employment has largely recovered from the global financial crisis, lower-end manufacturing jobs are expected to continue to be offshored and the region s future will lean towards advanced manufacturing. A challenge lies in determining the steps needed to support this transition. One key enabler will be the development of the human capital required to respond to the changing landscape. A number of initiatives are already underway to build the capacity of the industry to make the transition. These include the establishment of a welding productivity network. DEECD s Grampians Regional Market Facilitation Manager supports this initiative in partnership with Federation University Australia (Fed Uni) and the Department of State Development, Business and Innovation. Early activities have included a workshop with the Welding Technology Institute of Australia (WTIA), while Fed Uni is currently mapping WTIA qualifications to the national curriculum to make the opportunity to up skill and professionalise the workforce more accessible, transferrable and affordable. The Grampians Regional Development Australia Committee has made Human Capital a focus of their regional plan for 2014. This focus includes increasing opportunities for education and training, improving the educational aspirations of children and young adults and growing the employment participation rate. Much of this activity around developing the workforce is shared and coordinated through regional Workforce Development Committees. The Central Highlands Workforce Committee supported a number of successful projects in 2013 all contributing to the overall development of its regional workforce. Health Care and Social Assistance is the largest employing industry in the Central Highlands, and Ballarat is the largest Health Care service centre in western. In line with national trends, the industry is expected to see considerable growth in employment. The Ballarat Regional Growth Plan has Health and Education as key priorities, and Health is also a key strategic driver identified in the Committee for Ballarat s Action Plan. The industry s strategic potential in the region extends beyond service provision and there is considerable work taking place in research and development, including cancer research. Regional training delivery will need to continue to respond to this strong demand for Health Care and related skills, to ensure the industry has the workforce it needs into the future. Ballarat is well supported locally by tertiary education providers and should be well-positioned to respond to future growth. Vocational Training: s Regions 2013 4

Training alignment 16 This section explores the alignment between vocational training and skills needs by comparing the proportion of industry employment with the proportion of training delivery within the region, focusing on major employing and/or growth industries. Overall, enrolments appear to be in line with the major employing and/or growth industries. In 2013, the top five employing and growth industries represented 62 per cent of total vocational training enrolments. In particular, training provision appears to be well placed to support the skills needs of the key employing and growth industries of Health Care, Manufacturing and Construction. Enrolments aligned to the Construction industry accounted for the largest share of vocational training delivery in 2013, comprising 20 per cent of industry-specific training in the region. Construction industry enrolments have declined in 2013, by 8 per cent to 2,100. Other key industries in terms of vocational training included Health Care, Transport, Cross-Industry training 17 and Manufacturing, with these top five industries accounting for three quarters of Central Highlands industry training delivery in 2013. Enrolments aligned to the large employing and/or growth industries of Education, Retail, Public Administration and Safety and Professional Services comprise a relatively small proportion of the regional training market, broadly in line with State-wide enrolment patterns. Table 3.3: Top five industries by employment and associated vocational training enrolments Industry Employment* Enrolments 2011 % total 2013 % total Health Care 9,100 16% 2,000 18% Retail Trade 7,300 13% 300 3% Manufacturing 6,200 1 950 9% Education 5,800 10% 350 3% Accommodation 4,400 8% 650 6% *Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Census 2011 Enrolments in qualifications aligned to the Accommodation and Food Services industry comprised 6 per cent of industry training delivery in 2013. Industry enrolments have increased by 100 (or 23 per cent), to 650 enrolments in 2013, the second highest industry growth in the region. Training aligned to the Transport industry has shown the strongest enrolment growth of all industries over the last 12 months, increasing by 550 enrolments, or 38 per cent, to 2,000. Enrolments aligned to the occupation Truck Driver comprised the highest proportion of training in Central Highlands, with Certificates III and IV in Driving Operations accounting for 14 per cent of industry training a significantly higher proportion than the n average (3 per cent of industry enrolments). Enrolments aligned to the occupations Earthmoving Plant Operator and Disabilities Services Officer also comprise a relatively high proportion of regional enrolments when compared with the n average. Table 3.4: Top five highest growth industries by employment, 2006 2011 Industry Employment* Enrolments 2011 Growth 06-11 2013 % total Health Care 9,100 1,600 2,000 18% Public Admin 3,700 550 100 Professional Svs 3,000 550 200 2% Construction 3,800 450 2,100 20% Accommodation 4,400 400 650 6% 16 The scope of vocational training data for the Regional training alignment section is accredited AQF qualifications, excluding training in workplace preparation, education pathways and Languages Other than English (LOTE), otherwise referred to as industry training. 17 Cross-Industry is an industry classification which includes business and related skills which are transferable across the whole range of industries. It includes eight sub-sectors: Accounting Services; Business Administration; Business Management; Human Resources; International Business; Information Technology; Occupational Health and Safety; Project Management; Quality and Sales, Marketing and Public Relations. Training aligned to these skill areas are considered separately as they do not align to any one standard industry classification; instead, they support businesses across s industries. 5 Vocational Training: s Regions 2013