LMW Link. Highlights. Child Care Review ~ December 2015

Transcription

1 Highlights 2.2% growth per annum of those aged 0-14 years over the coming decade Female workforce participation rate likely to increase over the coming years Annual industry growth of 6.1% over the period In the short term further tightening of yields for centres in metropolitan regions Growth of the sector dependent upon continuation of government subsidy arrangement For more information Helen Swanson Queensland Research Director Michael McClifty Director

2 Key External Drivers Australia Female Participation Rate Feb-78 to Oct-15 Labour force participation rates strongly affect demand for child care services as does the type of participation involved. Changing work participation rates means that the traditional childcare centre operation hours do not necessarily provide the flexibility required by a growing number of families. Female employment is projected to continue to increase following on from strong growth over the past 40 years. In 1980 only 45% of women aged years had a job. Today around 60% of women aged years are employed. The intergenerational report anticipate that by 2054/55 this is projected to increase to 70%. Source: ABS, Labour Force, % 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% Australia Real household disposable income (%ch) 1984 to 2024 Households with higher disposable income are more likely to be able to afford childcare services. When combined with increased out of pocked expenses for childcare, subdued growth in this driver may act as a potential threat to the industry as families reassess disposable income expenditure patterns. In 2016/17 disposable income is anticipated to grow to circa 2%. -4.0% Source: Deloitte Access Economics, September Quarter, ,500,000 7,000,000 6,500,000 6,000,000 5,500,000 5,000,000 4,500,000 4,000,000 Australia Population Growth 2014/ /55 The Australian Bureau of Statistics along with the Australian Treasury report that in 1974/75 there were 3.8 million persons aged between 0-14 years. Today this has grown to 4.5 million. Projections suggest this figure will reach just under 5.5 million by 2024/25 representing an annual growth rate of 2.2% per annum over the period. By 2054/55 the population of this age group is estimated at just under 7 million. 3,500,000 3,000, / / / / /55 Source: Australian Treasury Projections,

3 Market Depth Industry at A Glance Revenue $10.6bn Annual Growth % Annual Growth % Profit $816.2m Wages $6.8bn Businesses 10,059 During the September quarter 2014, 819,970 families used approved child care services for their 1,201,110 children. In terms of affordability, 92.1% of these families are estimated to have received Child Care Rebate (CCR), with up to 50 per cent of their out-of-pocket costs covered by the Australian Government. In terms of availability, in the September quarter 2014, there were 16,717 services providing approved child care services across Australia. Table 1: Child care children, families, services and estimated entitlements by state and territory, September quarter 2014 State and territory Number of children using approved child care 1 Number of families using approved child care 1 Number of approved child care services Estimated Child Care Benefit (CCB) entitlement 1 ('000) Estimated Child Care Rebate (CCR) entitlement 1 ('000) Estimated number of families receiving CCR 1 NSW 394, ,920 5,694 $268,375 $282, ,010 Vic. 301, ,520 3,865 $256,734 $206, ,040 Qld 278, ,310 3,473 $190,560 $159, ,080 SA 84,840 57,330 1,292 $46,056 $40,470 53,450 WA 90,880 64,570 1,481 $47,385 $61,761 59,870 Tas. 23,100 15, $12,181 $10,638 14,660 NT 9,350 6, $3,948 $8,367 6,430 ACT 25,630 17, $8,486 $25,782 17,250 Australia 1,201, ,970 16,717 $833,725 $795, ,270 1 As families and children may use services in more than one state or territory and due to rounding, the sum of the component parts may not equal the Total. Source: Department of Social Services administrative data. 3

4 Child Care Usage During the September quarter 2014, 1,201,110 children used approved child care in Australia, up by 8.1% since the September quarter For children aged 0 12 years using approved child care, this represents 30.6% of the 3,856,350 children aged 0 12 years in Australia. During the September quarter 2014, children attended various services providing approved child care, including Long Day Care (658,400 or 54.8%), Outside School Hours Care (369,630 or 30.8%), Family Day Care and In-Home Care (203,790 or 17.0%), and Occasional Care (7,750 or 0.6%). Table 2: Number of children using child care by service type, September quarter 2013 to September quarter 2014 Service type Sep. 13 Dec. 13 Mar. 14 Jun. 14 Sep. 14 Long Day Care 637, , , , ,400 Family Day Care and In-Home Care 155, , , , ,790 Occasional Care 8,260 8,130 6,920 7,430 7,750 Outside School Hours Care 345, , , , ,630 Total 1 1,111,100 1,120,880 1,127,730 1,161,150 1,201,110 Per cent of Australian population % 29.0% 29.2% 29.6% 30.6% 1 As children may use more than one service type in any particular quarter and due to rounding, the sum of the component parts may not equal the Total. 2 Number of children aged 0 12 years using approved child care as a proportion of all Australian children aged 0 12 years. Source: Department of Social Services administrative data, ABS Cat. No Australian Demographic Statistics, Jun

5 Child Care Usage As can be seen by the below table and graph as at September Quarter 2014, the largest proportion of children attending Long Day Care was in New South Wales (34.0%), followed by Queensland (24.8%) and Victoria (22.3%). Table 2: Number of children using child care by service type and state and territory, September Qtr 2014 Service type NSW VIC QLD SA WA TAS NT ACT Long Day Care 223, , ,220 41,090 53,930 11,460 5,260 13,730 Family Day Care and In-Home Care 68,690 74,050 34,450 10,770 11,980 5, ,390 Source: DEEWR, September Quarter Number of Children Using Child Care Long Day Care by State September Quarter 2014 SA 6% WA 8% TAS 2% NT 1% ACT 2% NSW 34% QLD 25% VIC 22% Source: DEEWR, September Quarter

6 Market Share & Structure The Australian child care services industry is characterised by its small scale fragmented nature, with the top four players accounting for less than 20% of industry revenue. The Australian Children s Education and Care Quality Authority (ACECQA) reported that as at March 2015 the majority of approved childcare providers (83%) only managed one education and care service. This was followed by 16% providing two 25 services and less than 1% providing 25 or more services. 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% Australia Structure of Child Care Services 2004/05 to date Approximately half of all approved 10% services are currently run by not for profit organisations. Goodstart early 0% 2004/ /09 After Goodstart Sale learning is the largest not for profit player with an estimated market share of 5%. Source: 2010 Report on Government Services Government Community Managed/NFP Privately Managed However, this ratio varies slightly between the different types of services. For example the graph above shows the current structure of long day care services in Australia with the not for profit sector representing 34% of the market, privately managed 64% and government run 3%. The long day care sector is expected to become increasingly concentrated by a few players as the likes of G8 Education and Affinity Education acquire smaller players as they seek to expand market share and obtain economies of scale. G8 Education acquired 203 centres in 2014, on top of the 76 centres acquired in As of October 2014 it had acquired over 400 centres since entering an acquisition phase in March The below graph shows the representation of the major players operating in the industry as at June Source: IBISWorld, 2015 Australia Child Care Main Operators June 2015 Goodstart Learning, 9% G8 Education, 5% KU Children Services, 2% Affinity Group, 2% Guardian Learning, 1% YMCA Australia, 1% Other, 81% Goodstart Learning G8 Education KU Children Services Affinity Group Guardian Learning YMCA Australia Other 6

7 Legislative Requirements and Changes Government policies subsidising the cost of childcare for parents play a key role in influencing the level of demand for childcare services. As at May 2015 the Federal Government proposed a single mean tested Child Care Subsidy (CCS) to replace the complex mix of subsidies currently available to parents. The new CCS is proposed to be established from July 1 st 2017 and will see the abolition of the current Child Care Benefit, Child Care Rebate and Jobs, Education and Training Child Care Fee Assistance programmes. Funding from the CCS is dependent upon the Senate passing cuts in last year s budget to Family Tax Benefits. Child Care Subsidy A summary of the main features of the CCS include: All families will be subject to a new activity test for up to 100 hours of subsidised care per child per fortnight, which will be paid directly to aprpoved care service providers. For family incomes of up to approximately $65,000, the CCS will be 85% per child of the actual fee or a benchmark price, whichever is lower. Up to 24 hours of childcare per fortnight will also be provided to children from families with incomes less than $65,000 per year who do not meet the activity test. The 24 hours is equivalent to two 6 hour sessions. For family incomes of approximately $170,000 and above the CCS will reduce to 50%. Families on incomes under $185,000 will no longer have a cap on the amount of subsidy that they receive (the cap is currently $7,500). Families on incomes in between $65,000 and $170,000 will be around $30 better off. Families on higher incomes will on average continue to receive the same level of support Families on higher incomes of less than $65,000 per year will receive ongoing access to early childhood learning and can be eligible for additional financial support the Child Care Safety Net. A cap of $10,000 per child at the time of introduction will be established for the total value of subsidies for family incomes of $185,000 and above. Parents Working (per fortnight) Eligible Childcare 8-16 hours Up to 36 hours hours Up to 72 hours <49 hours Up to 100 hours The operation of long day care, family day are, preschools and outside school hours day care centres is governed under the Education and Care Service National Regulations. The National Quality Framework (NQF) operates under both the National Law and the National Regulations and establishes the standards for all education and care services in Australia for children to age 13. The Australian Children s Education and Care Quality Authority (ACECQA) is an independent national authority that guides the implementation of the NQF nationally. ACECQA works with regulatory authorities, as each State or Territory introduces and administers the new system. The NQF was introduced to ensure high quality early childcare education and care across Australia for long day care, family day car,e outside school hours care and preschools. The framework aims to achieve this through the following: Improved staff to child care ratios New staff qualification reqruiements A new quality rating system Establishment of a new national body 7

8 Staff Qualifications By 1 January 2014 long day care and preschool services providing care to less than 25 children must have access to an early childhood teacher for at least 20 per cent of the time that the service provides education and care. When long day care and preschool services are provided to 25 or more children on any given day, the service must ensure that an early childhood teacher is in attendance for: six hours on that day (for a service that operates for more than 50 hours per week) or 60 percent of the operating hours (for a service that operates for 50+ hours per week). A service may choose to comply with these requirements by engaging a full-time equivalent early childhood teacher. Within each long day care centre or preschool, half of all educators who are required to meet the relevant educator-tochild ratios will need to have (or be working towards) an approved diploma-level early childhood education and care qualification or above and the remaining educators will all be required to have (or be working towards) an approved Certificate III level early childhood education and care qualification or equivalent. All family day care coordinators will need to have an approved diploma-level early childhood education and care qualification or above. All family day care educators will be required to have (or be working towards) an approved Certificate III level early childhood education and care qualification, or equivalent. By 1 January 2020 when long day care and preschool services are provided to 60 or more children on any given day, the service must ensure that a second early childhood teacher is in attendance for: three hours on that day (for a service that operates for 50+ hours per week) or 30 percent of the operating hours (for a service that operates for 50+ hours per week) A service may choose to comply with these requirements by engaging a second early childhood teacher for half of the full-time equivalent hours at the service. When long day care and preschool services are provided to 80 or more children on any given day the service must ensure that a second early childhood teacher is in attendance for: six hours on that day (for a service that operates for 50+ hours per week) or 60 percent of the operating hours (for a service that operates for 50+ hours per week) A service may choose to comply with these requirements by engaging a second full-time equivalent early childhood teacher. Child Care Ratios Improved educator to child ratios are due to start 1 January 2016 in all states and territories, except Tasmania and Western Australia, where they are already in place. The changes bring national consistency to the National Quality Framework (NQF). All states and territories agree the new ratios as part of the NQF. Although the NQF started in 2012, the 1 January 2016 deadline for the introduction of these ratios was set to give services time to prepare for the changes. The implementation of these improved ratios is a significant achievement for the sector and an important milestone in the drive for national consistency. There has been a lot of media attention about this recently as some of the changes came into effect in January this year and have forced many child care services to raise their prices due to the costs of hiring more staff to comply with the new regulations. Affected age groups, services and jurisdictions New ratios apply for children older than 24 months and younger than 36 months at centre - based services in NSW, Queensland and South Australia 8

9 New ratios apply for children older than 36 months up to and including preschool age for all Centre - based services in Queensland and Victoria. New ratios apply for preschools in ACT, Northern Territory and South Australia New ratios apply for family day care services in Queensland The educator to child ratios are already in place in Tasmania and Western Australia and therefore no changes are required The tables below outline the differing rules regarding child care ratios by state in 2015 and 2016 for long day care and preschool services. The sections shaded grey show those States that will experience changes to their existing child care ratios from the 1 st of January Centre based services All :4* 1:4* *some declared approved services in Queensland have received approval to operate at 1:5 Children older than 24 months and younger than 36 months ACT NSW NT QLD SA TAS VIC WA st January :5 1:5 1:8 1:5 1:5 1:5 1:6 for children aged months 1:8 for children aged months 1:8 for the first 8 children 1:10 for any additional children 1:5 1:5 1:5# 1:5# 1:4 1:4 1:5 1:5 #some declared approved services in Tasmania have received approval to operate at 1:7 until 2018 Children older than 36 months and up to and including preschool age ACT* st January :11 for centre based services other than a preschool 2:25: for a preschool NSW 1:10 1:10 NT 1:11 1:11 QLD** SA*** TAS^ 1:12 for children 3-6 and 4-13 years 1:13 for children 4-6 years 1:10 for centre based services other than a preschool 1:13 for preschools 1:10 2:25 for children attending a preschool program^ 1:11 1:11 1:10 for centre based services other than preschool and for disadvantaged preschool 1:11 for preschools other 1:10 than disadvantaged 2:25 for children attending preschool a preschool program^ VIC 1:15 1:11 1:10 1:10 WA ^Relates to regulation 34(2)(a) which accommodates the requirement for Tasmanian kindergartens to provide a place to any child who, on 1 January in any year, is 4 years of age. 9

10 Future Supply The child care industry contains a number of small private operators which would suggest that the barriers to entry are releatively limited. Despite this however new entrants face a number of hurdles upon entry. Obtaining a suitable location can also be costly, while gaining relevant local council permits to establish a childcare centre can be expensive and time consuming. Futhermore the cost of purchasing or building centre accommodation, together with the cost of facilities and equipment can be prohibitive to a new entrant. There is currently 114 new child care centres with a total floor area of 86,792 sq m in the planning, development application, approval and or construction phase due for completion by 2016 across the Eastern Coast of Australia. 64% of the number of centres proposed across Eastern Australia are located in New South Wales, 20% in Queensland, 14% in Victoria and 2% in the ACT. 45 Child Care Facilities Future Supply by Region Development Application Development Approval Early Planning Construction NSW QLD VIC ACT Source: Reed Cordells, 2015 Child Care Facilities Future Supply by Region 2016 ACT VIC QLD NSW 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 Source: Reed Cordells, 2015 Development Application Early Planning Development Approval Construction 10

11 Investment & Yields History The child care sector has experienced significant growth during the decade to During this period new centres were built in newly created housing estates and in outer suburban Australia. Thereafter however the sector struggled including the collapse of the ABC child care empire which was led in part by excessive debt along with rising interest rates. During this time many child care centres went into disposal mode as the need to raise funds became paramount. Locations where there was an oversupply of centres saw yields soften bps and values were reflective of lower occupancy rates and weaker tenant profiles. In 2009 the federal government committed to $450 million on providing early learning programs and university funding for qualified teachers over the next five years. A further $115 million was committed by the government to establish 38 child care centres. This commitment by the government helped reignite investors interest in the sector particularly ASX listed companies. Since 2010 there has been a number of new child care operators enter the industry including ASX listed G8 Education, Goodstart Learning and Eclipse Early Education. The majority of these players are the tenants of the many child care centres sold during G8 Education has been particularly active and has acquired a number of established child care businesses and in some cases with relatively low occupancy. Recent Sales Performance Yields for suburban childcare centres continue to tighten with a recent example as low as 3.9%, as private investors look to increase their exposure to an asset class underpinned by long-term lease agreements. Earlier in the year Arena REIT sold 10 Victorian and NSW child care centres at auction for a combined $14.2 million reflecting an average 6.9% net yield. The lowest yield recorded was located at Templestowe in Melbourne with a $1.73 million sale reflecting a yield fo 5.4%. The lease was 15 years to Imagine Applied Education Services Inc with two further terms of five years, each with a five year notice period. There are annual CPI reviews with a 2.5% minimum increase, with the next market review date in The lowest yield achieved to date was for a childcare centre located near Kogarah in Sydney's southern suburbs and sold for $4.92 million on a 4.5% yield in April. A more recent example is the sale of the Smith Street Early Learning Centre in Thornbury about seven kilometres north of the Melbourne City Centre which sold for $1.83 million on a 3.9% yield. The childcare centre had a 10-year lease in place to national operator Guardian Early Learning Group, which owns or manages 90 childcare centres. In another deal, a China-based investor paid $2.3 million on a low 5.1 per cent yield for a childcare centre at 2 Bernard Hamilton Way, Rowville in Melbourne's outer east, also on a 10-year lease. The appetite for child care centres has not only been driven by such factors as population growth and increasing female workforce participation rates but also by the recent 2015 federal budget commitment of $3.2 billion over four years to improve the affordability of childcare for low and middle income earners and a recent Productivity Commission report, which said an additional 50,000 childcare places were needed by The sector is also considered a relatively easy asset to manage compared to that of other commercial assets. There is no incentives or face rents to fund and with continued increases in population and density, this supports both childcare operations as well as underlying land value growth Between FY14 and FY15, average yields on childcare centres sold by Folkestone tightened from 7.5 to 6.6 per cent from 93 sales. 11

12 Outlook The Australian child care sector is expected to continue to be underpinned by population growth of those aged 0-14 years along with a broader push to ensure more women remain in the workforce. In particular the Productivity Commission estimates 50,000 new full time childcare places are required by The Federal Government s child care subsidy arrangement has made it more affordable for a greater number of families to use child care centres. Future demand will however be dependent upon this continued government support. Barriers to entry within the industry are anticipated to increase. The need to meet new national standards for staff ratios and qualification requirements is posing greater costs on players both existing and potential. In addition there are other federal and state regulations that must be met. One such example is the cost involved to obtain local council approval and state government licence of a centre. Changes to child care ratios may also impose new challenges for child care operators. A greater number of staff required per child may increase the cost of operation for many smaller operators who are unable to take advantage of economies of scale. The cost of purchasing and or building a centre along with the cost of running a facility can be prohibitive to a new entrant. It would appear that larger operators are in a stronger position to attract qualified staff, adjust the staff mix and defray the cost of specialist staff. Given this we anticpate further consolidation with the industry highly likely over the short to medium term. 12