NIAGARA GO RAIL A CASE FOR WEEKDAY GO TRAIN SERVICE BETWEEN NIAGARA AND THE GTHA

NIAGARA GO RAIL A CASE FOR WEEKDAY GO TRAIN SERVICE BETWEEN NIAGARA AND THE GTHA APRIL 2015 BUSINESS CASE PRIMER

GO COULD CHANGE MY CHILDREN S FUTURE, CHANGE MY COMMUNITY S PROSPECTS AND MAKE A DIFFERENCE IN ONTARIO S ECONOMY Niagara GO, Facebook Page

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY REQUEST/RECOMMENDATION A COMMITMENT IS SOUGHT FROM THE PROVINCE OF ONTARIO IN 2015 THAT GO TRAIN SERVICE WILL BE OPERATIONAL IN NIAGARA IN 2016, AND THAT NECESSARY RAIL INFRASTRUCTURE BE ESTABLISHED BY THE PROVINCE OF ONTARIO TO SUPPORT THE EXTENSION OF GO RAIL SERVICE TO NIAGARA FALLS WITH STOPS IN GRIMSBY AND ST. CATHARINES. SPECIFICALLY, IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT GO TRANSIT EXPAND RAIL SERVICE BETWEEN JAMES STREET NORTH STATION AND NIAGARA FALLS FOR A REGULAR TWO-WAY WEEKDAY SERVICE CONNECTING THE NIAGARA REGION WITH THE GTHA, ENABLING MAXIMIZATION OF ACCESS TO LOCAL TRANSIT SERVICES IN BOTH HAMILTON AND NIAGARA. UNLOCKING NIAGARA S POTENTIAL Transportation and transit are intrinsically linked to sustained economic prosperity. The world s most competitive regions support a competitive business environment by ensuring the necessary transportation systems are in place to move people and goods as quickly and efficiently as possible. In fact, more than 75 years ago the Queen Elizabeth Way (QEW) was established linking the communities and industry of the Greater Toronto- Hamilton (GTHA) Area with Niagara. Arguably one of the most influential developments in the history of the Province, this strategic highway corridor continues to fuel Ontario s economic growth linking the GTHA to Niagara and beyond to the entire eastern United States. Today we must make new connections connections that bring new talent, investment, growth and innovation within reach. Strong local economies are the foundation of a strong provincial economy and extending two-way GO Train service to Niagara is critical to our long-term growth, prosperity and sustainability. In 2014, the Provincial government announced a plan to build a seamless and integrated transportation network across the province Moving Ontario Forward. The fund, totaling $29 billion, is dedicated to building priority transit and transportation infrastructure across Ontario, for which $14 billion is available to areas outside the GTHA. Niagara is completely aligned with this Provincial objective and is presenting an opportunity that is affordable, feasible and will unlock Niagara s potential. UNITED IN A PROACTIVE PLAN FOR PROSPERITY Niagara remains strongly and passionately united in its advocacy for two-way GO Train service and all 12 of Niagara s mayors, the Regional Chair and Council are in agreement that GO rail expansion is Niagara s foremost priority. The region recognizes the critical advantages resulting from improved inter-regional connectivity with the GTHA. The expansion of two-way, all-day GO Train service between Niagara Falls and the GTHA will have a transformative effect on the current and future economic and community development of Niagara, and will contribute to the wider economic and growth objectives of the Province. The benefits of GO Train are far-reaching. It is widely acknowledged that transportation and transit are closely tied to economic prosperity and that where GO Transit goes, communities grow. While the 2008 economic downturn had a significant impact on Niagara, it was very evident that simply waiting for a positive turnaround was not an option. Niagara s communities took an aggressive, proactive approach, working with industry stakeholders to identify key sectors that would play a critical role in our region s economic revitalization. While Niagara s roots are deep in the agricultural, food and advanced manufacturing sectors, today we are gaining significant ground in the health and wellness, interactive

digital media and bioscience sectors. Committed to the social, economic and cultural development of our communities, Niagara s post-secondary institutions (including Brock University, Niagara College and McMaster University s DeGroote School of Medicine) are active and engaged partners with local governments and community organizations. Together, those combined efforts are focused on the economic revitalization of the region, cooperatively developing programs to address demands for skilled labour and positioning Niagara in the global marketplace for talent. Traditionally, our workforce has been primarily local; today, Niagara is attracting talent from beyond our borders. Niagara s connectivity to the GO rail network has the potential to attract a much wider net of potential employees to Niagara businesses which can incentivize more businesses to locate in the region knowing that a significant cache of skilled labour is only a short train ride away. For Niagara, GO Trains will be an economic game changer ; the catalyst to realize our plans for economic prosperity. Together with our post-secondary institutions and industry representatives, we have charted out and embarked on an ambitious Joint Economic Development Action Plan for Niagara s success. All parties agree that GO Train expansion to Niagara is a critical component of these efforts. WELCOMING THE WORLD, LEVERAGING LOCAL ECONOMIES The Niagara region continues to exert its magnetic fourseason pull on travellers from every corner of the world. Niagara is the fourth-most visited destination in the country with more than 12 million visitors annually. With its spectacular natural setting between two Great Lakes and bordering the Niagara River, the region is a peninsula that rises up into a towering escarpment. While Niagara Falls may be the area s most famous natural attraction, it is just one of Niagara s many wonders. Home to Ontario s most active wine region, Niagara has earned a reputation for producing an array of exceptional wines in addition to our internationally acclaimed Icewine. From small boutique wineries, to organic wineries and even celebrity wineries, there are many attractions to keep Niagara overflowing with visitors year after year. Extending GO rail into the Niagara region will link the country s largest urban agglomeration (GTHA) with one of the world s most renowned tourist destinations. PROSPEROUS NIAGARA, PROSPEROUS GTHA The links between Niagara and the GTHA are increasingly more inter-dependent, and the connections are most evident between Niagara and Hamilton as commuter traffic flows continue to rise. Given the very favourable affordability of housing in Niagara, many city-dwellers are selling their GTHA properties and re-investing in Niagara. Extending commuter GO rail service to Niagara will allow more people to live and work in the Niagara-Hamilton area. It will open up employment opportunities and significantly expand choices people have to call home positively contributing to their quality of life. In keeping with a provincial focus to get people out of cars and onto public transit, travellers to and from Niagara will be able to ride the GO train and reduce the heavy congestion that exists on the QEW highway. As a region, we are taking the necessary steps to support this effort. Rail also has the advantage of reliability and can provide the environment for work and/or relaxation over congested highway commuting, contributing to overall societal productivity and an enhanced quality of life. Through GO rail expansion to Niagara, the Province and its transit agencies have an opportunity to shift bus operations to rail, thereby re-allocating some of the operating costs towards the GO Train. Regionally, Niagara has invested in and launched a number of strategic initiatives to facilitate improved connectivity and set the stage for inter-regional transit. Niagara s 12 municipalities have mobilized resources to improve local transit; the Region s inter-municipal transit pilot project has been made permanent; mobility hub strategy studies are underway; and a nodes and corridors study has been completed. The pieces have also been put in motion to finalize a regional transportation master plan, and are pending favourable provincial decisions on GO rail expansion. BUSINESS CASE i

MOBILITY HUBS: THE CORNERSTONE OF STRONG COMMUNITIES GO Transit is a catalyst for growth and expansion, as well as a cornerstone for future routing and the establishment of mobility hubs. On a local scale, extending GO rail is known to have a dramatic effect on the areas surrounding stations. GO Transit envisions its stations being a transformative force in communities, providing busy transit hubs for local and interregional travel, and shaping sustainable employment, institutional, and residential communities. Niagara is ready, willing and able to leverage this transit investment together with a number of planning tools already in place, including Community Improvement Plans (CIPs) to revitalize community cores in and around the GO stations. Strategically, GO rail expansion to Niagara aligns with numerous Provincial policies/plans including the Provincial Policy Statement, the Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe, the Big Move and GO Transit s Strategic Plan for 2020 to drive inter-regional connectivity and service expansion to designated Urban Growth Centres, of which St. Catharines is one. A FEASIBLE PLAN THAT MAKES DOLLARS AND SENSE In quantifiable, economic terms, GO rail expansion to Niagara makes sense. When comparing the capital and operating costs with the benefits produced by way of travel time, vehicle operating costs, accident avoidance, and environmental benefits associated with diverting people off the highways and onto transit, Niagara s expansion has a strong benefit-cost ratio of 1.85. Furthermore, there are direct benefits associated with construction costs, which will result in an economic impact (GDP) of $195 million, more than 1,000 full-time jobs, $8 million in tax revenue and 2,400 full-time jobs resulting from transit operations. In the short-term, the Province of Ontario has funded a number of large road infrastructure projects that connect Niagara with the GTHA, including expansions to the QEW and Highway 406. Highway expansion is both costly and generally takes many years to approve, design and build. Meanwhile, the proposed GO rail expansion costs a fraction of what was spent on road infrastructure in the short term alone and can deliver many of the aforementioned benefits. This project is feasible. Given GO s historical use of existing corridors and tracks to extend its rail service network, the proposed Niagara line fits into GO s long-standing and successful expansion strategy. Like its other rail lines, GO Transit s investment in rail expansion to Niagara represents a significant step toward even more integrated transit connectivity. Niagara Station Travel Time to James North Travel Time James North Union Total travel to Union Station Niagara Falls 76 minutes *incl. 20 min. layover 65 minutes 141 minutes = 2 hours, 21 mins St. Catharines 38 minutes 65 minutes 103 minutes = 1 hour, 43 mins Grimsby 20 minutes 65 minutes 85 minutes = 1 hour, 25 mins Fare to Hamilton (single) Fare James North to Union (single) Total fare to Union $11.50 $11.50 $23.00 $9.80 $11.50 $21.30 $6.25 $11.50 $17.75 Proposed GO Train trip/fare schedule - Niagara route Source: Transportation Tomorrow Survey (2011) ii BUSINESS CASE

Transporation Tomorrow Survey (2011) AM Peak Communting PM Peak Communting Peel Region 1,200 City of Toronto 1,500 Peel Region 1,100 City of Toronto 1,400 Halton Region 4,200 Halton Region 2,000 City of Hamilton 8,600 City of Hamilton 5,300 Niagara Region Niagara Region Commuting Flows between Niagara Region and the GTHA Source: Transportation Tomorrow Survey (2011) Niagara has engaged top industry experts to perform the necessary due diligence and ensure any risks associated with GO rail expansion to Niagara are mitigated. Together, we have identified low-cost solutions that maintain service and scheduling expectations, coordinate construction and maintain public safety. This is a low-risk project with high economic impact. THE TIME FOR GO TRAIN TO NIAGARA IS NOW While GO bus service currently operates in the region, rail service not only signals a real commitment on the part of the Province, but a sense of permanence for the residents and businesses of Niagara, potential residents looking to relocate and investors looking to help strengthen Niagara s communities. With the compelling and proven socioeconomic benefits of GO expansion, Niagara will be poised for future growth and prosperity. Niagara stands ready to mobilize all of the tools at its disposal to ensure a Provincial investment in GO rail expansion to Niagara Falls, with stops in Grimsby and St. Catharines, will realize provincial objectives and be a catalyst for economic prosperity in our communities. NIAGARA IS UNITED. THE TIME FOR DAILY NIAGARA GO TRAIN SERVICE IS NOW. BUSINESS CASE iii

PROJECT SCORECARD RESULTS BACKGROUND THERE IS DEMAND BENEFITS OF RAIL OVER BUS SERVICE There is no direct transit service between the greater Hamilton Area and Niagara region, even though 55% of all inter-regional trips in Niagara are destined to Hamilton There is no direct private motorcoach service between Niagara region and Hamilton. The private automobile is the required mode of transportation Goods movement between Fort Erie and the GTA is being negatively impacted by increasing congestion along the QEW. Temporary relief through road improvements is a decade or more away. GO train service can happen fast. Bus ridership has increased from 430 passengers per day to approximately 1,200 passengers per day between the GTA and Hamilton and service has consequently increased in frequency to provide an hourly service Forecasted GO Train ridership is approximately 680 peak period, peak direction trips in 2021 and 1,190 in 2031 Daily ridership of approximately 990 trips is forecast for 2021, and 1,780 for 2031 GO Train passengers are choice riders they seek comfort and productivity Trains are more reliable than buses operating in mixed traffic Train traffic evokes a sense of permanence and reliability Daily GO Trains in Niagara signals a commitment on the part of the Province that it is supporting the prosperity of the region BUILDING A DYNAMIC ECONOMY AND ACCESSIBLE EMPLOYMENT BUILDING ON LOCAL INVESTMENTS AND INNOVATION Niagara is investing in innovation and start-up hubs to attract and retain talent but needs GO for the transportation link The region has made many large investments in creating employment opportunities that would become more viable with improved inter-regional transit ATTRACTING THE RIGHT (SKILLED) STAFF SUPPORTING THE TOURISM ECONOMY EMPLOYMENT/ POPULATION NEAR STATIONS LAND VALUE UPLIFT Can help relieve relatively high unemployment and attract skilled staff by linking employers to potential employees Can contribute to creating employment opportunities and youth retention by connecting people in both directions to the GTHA market Supports growth of a major contributor to provincial GDP: tourism 92% of travellers arrive in Niagara by car/truck/rv; QEW is congested by tourist travellers, impacting goods movement Large potential transit market as visitors only spend $125 million on transit travel vs. $1.5 billion on car travel to region St. Catharines and Niagara Falls have the potential for large population and employment densities in vicinity of GO stations. Mobility Hubs are being planned to accommodate growth, but need GO service to realize maximum potential Grimsby has a moderate population size, but limited employment and relies on connectivity with other locales for employment (i.e. GTHA). The large parking lot at the station will reduce the number of cars on the QEW Land value around three Niagara stations estimated to produce over $50 million in uplift to the local economy BUILDING ON REGIONAL AND LOCAL PLANNING INITIATIVES FITS IN WITH REGIONAL PLANS MEETS MUNICIPAL OBJECTIVES Aligns with Niagara Region s Strategic Goals and Plans, including Niagara 2031: A Strategy for a Healthy, Sustainable Future and Sustainable Niagara - Our Niagara in 2060 Aligns with Municipal Official Plans and Transportation Strategies in Niagara Falls, St. Catharines and Grimsby iv BUSINESS CASE

LEVERAGING EXISTING PLANNING MECHANISMS FOR INVESTMENT BUILDING ON LOCAL TRANSIT INVESTMENT A MULTI-MODAL TRANSPORTATION NETWORK QUALITY OF LIFE ACCESS TO EDUCATIONAL INSTITUTIONS AND CONNECTING HEALTHCARE FACILITIES RETIREMENT & ACCESSIBILITY LIVE-WORK CHOICE Two of the three municipalities have CIP areas that align with the proposed location of GO rail stops/ stations Will enhance municipal transit investment Establishment of inter-municipal transit routes. GO will act as a catalyst for future growth of Niagara Region Transit network. Mobility Hub studies underway Nodes and Corridors study completed Regional Transportation Master Plan is dependent upon outcome of GO extension St. Lawrence Seaway Connections/Welland Canal major transportation route Niagara District Airport investments Connections to the future high speed Empire Rail Line in New York State, currently under construction Better access to post-secondary educational facilities can make it easier for students, faculty, staff and visitors, helping to promote students to remain in Niagara post-graduation. A transit link to the GTHA is required Residents can have better access to healthcare facilities - over 6,000 Niagara residents are discharged from Hamilton hospitals each year. A transit link to the GTHA is required Transit would support the large number of healthcare jobs in Hamilton and Niagara region by linking work and home trips The aging population will rely on public transit options for accessibility Large bedroom communities (e.g. Grimsby and West Lincoln) working in Hamilton, Burlington and into the GTA Increasingly large group seeking to live outside of urban environment but continue to work in GTHA Predictable commute times BENEFIT-COST RATIO (BCR) BENEFIT-COST RATIO > 1 Total BCR: 1.85, based a low-growth scenario (this increases to 2.65 under a high growth scenario) Capital cost of project is less than $150 million Operational savings from existing GO bus service= $49 million Travel time savings= $230 million Vehicle operating cost savings= $57 million Collision cost savings= $7 million Environmental benefits= $2 million DIRECT CONSTRUCTION & OPERATIONS BENEFITS ECONOMIC BENEFITS FROM $130 M INVESTMENT Economic Impact (GDP)= $195 million Employment from investment= 1,200 full-time jobs Taxes arising from investment= $8.4 million Employment from transit operations= 2,400 full-time jobs STRATEGIC FIT MEETS PROVINCIAL OBJECTIVES PROJECT READINESS LEVERAGE OTHER INVESTMENTS - RAIL VS. HIGHWAY FUNDING Aligns with Provincial Policies/Plans, including the PPS, the Growth Plan for the Greater Golden Horseshoe, the Big Move and GO Transit s Strategic Plan GO: 2020 Aligns with Government of Ontario commitment to spend $29 billion on infrastructure, for which $14 billion is to be spent on infrastructure outside the GTHA. GO Transit can make an incremental, cost-effective service improvement by utilizing existing track infrastructure Completed Environmental Assessment (EA) in 2011 Engaged partners (12 local area municipalities, St. Lawrence Seaway Management Corporation, widespread community & business support) Province has already made large investments in road infrastructure through Niagara. Needs a solid investment in the region s public transit services through the establishment of GO rail services Leverage significant investment made by Province through the establishment of GO rail services at James Street North Station in Hamilton to maximize station investment One-third municipal contribution to total capital costs BUSINESS CASE v

vi NIAGARA GO RAIL EXPANSION BUSINESS CASE Source: Niagara Region - from 2011 GO Transit ESR: Niagara Rail Service Expansion, RJ Burnside.

GO TRAIN SERVICE IS IMPORTANT TO THE CONTINUED ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF NIAGARA AND THE PROVINCE. Niagara GO, Facebook Page

NIAGARA GO RAIL A CASE FOR WEEKDAY GO TRAIN SERVICE BETWEEN NIAGARA AND THE GTHA APRIL 2015 BUSINESS CASE PRIMER