Global Index Briefing: MSCI Forward P/Es October, Dr. Ed Yardeni -972-73 eyardeni@ Joe Abbott 732-497- jabbott@ Mali Quintana 4-4-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of Contents Major Regions 3-4 Advanced Economies - Major Europe Economies 7 Emerging Economies -9-32 October, / Global Index Briefing: MSCI Forward P/Es www.
2 Figure 1. MSCI FORWARD P/E (weekly) Major Regions 2 Capped at Forward P/E* Emerging Markets (.) EMU (13.) Japan (13.7) UK (1.) US (17.3) 1 1 7 9 11 13 1 17 1 * Price divided by -month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Figure 2. FORWARD P/E: WORLD MSCI 2 Forward P/E* All Country World (1.) EAFE (.) Emerging Markets (.) US (17.3) 2 1 1 199 199 1997 199 1999 1 2 3 4 7 9 11 13 1 17 1 * Price divided by -month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Monthly through December, weekly thereafter. Page 3 / October, / Global Index Briefing: MSCI Forward P/Es www.
2 24 Figure 3. FORWARD P/E: WORLD MSCI Major Regions 2 24 22 22 1 1 Forward P/E* All Country World (1.) US (17.3) 199 199 1997 199 1999 1 2 3 4 7 9 11 13 1 17 1 * Price divided by -month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Monthly through December, weekly thereafter. Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International. 2 2 Figure 4. FORWARD P/E: WORLD MSCI EX-US 2 2 24 24 22 22 1 1 Forward P/E* All Country World Ex US (.1) US (17.3) 199 199 1997 199 1999 1 2 3 4 7 9 11 13 1 17 1 * Price divided by -month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Monthly through December, weekly thereafter. Page 4 / October, / Global Index Briefing: MSCI Forward P/Es www.
Figure. FORWARD P/E: ADVANCED ECONOMIES MSCI Advanced Economies 4 4 3 Forward P/E* EMU (13.) Japan (13.7) United Kingdom (1.) United States (17.3) 4 4 3 2 2 1 199 199 1997 199 1999 1 2 3 4 7 9 11 13 1 17 1 1 * Price divided by -month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Monthly through December, weekly thereafter. Figure. FORWARD P/E: ADVANCED ECONOMIES MSCI 2 2 1 1 Forward P/E* Canada (.3) EAFE (.) United States (17.3) 199 199 1997 199 1999 1 2 3 4 7 9 11 13 1 17 1 * Price divided by -month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Monthly through December, weekly thereafter. Page / October, / Global Index Briefing: MSCI Forward P/Es www.
4 4 3 Figure 7. FORWARD P/E: ADVANCED ECONOMIES MSCI Advanced Economies Forward P/E* Germany (.7) Japan (13.7) United Kingdom (1.) United States (17.3) 4 4 3 2 2 1 199 199 1997 199 1999 1 2 3 4 7 9 11 13 1 17 1 1 * Price divided by -month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Monthly through December, weekly thereafter. Figure. FORWARD P/E: ADVANCED ECONOMIES MSCI 4 4 Forward P/E* EAFE (.) Europe (.3) Japan (13.7) 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 199 199 1997 199 1999 1 2 3 4 7 9 11 13 1 17 1 1 * Price divided by -month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Monthly through December, weekly thereafter. Page / October, / Global Index Briefing: MSCI Forward P/Es www.
Major Europe Economies 1 Figure 9. FORWARD P/E: EUROZONE MSCI Forward P/E* France (13.) Germany (.7) Italy (11.4) Spain (.) 1 4 4 7 9 11 13 1 17 1 4 * Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current and next year. Monthly through December, weekly thereafter. Page 7 / October, / Global Index Briefing: MSCI Forward P/Es www.
Figure. FORWARD P/E: EMERGING ECONOMIES MSCI Emerging Economies 2 Forward P/E* Emerging Markets (.) EM Asia (.) EM Eastern Europe (.9) EM Latin America (.) 2 1 1 199 199 1997 199 1999 1 2 3 4 7 9 11 13 1 17 1 * Price divided by -month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Monthly through December, weekly thereafter. 4 Figure 11. FORWARD P/E: BRIC MSCI COMPOSITES 4 3 2 Forward P/E* Brazil (.) Russia (.) India (17.7) China (.3) 3 2 1 1 199 199 1997 199 1999 1 2 3 4 7 9 11 13 1 17 1 * Price divided by -month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Monthly through December, weekly thereafter. Page / October, / Global Index Briefing: MSCI Forward P/Es www.
Emerging Economies 4 3 2 Figure. FORWARD P/E: EMERGING ECONOMIES MSCI Forward P/E* China (.3) India (17.7) Indonesia (17.) Korea (.2) Taiwan (13.) Turkey (.2) 4 3 2 1 1 199 199 1997 199 1999 1 2 3 4 7 9 11 13 1 17 1 * Price divided by -month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Monthly through December, weekly thereafter. 2 24 22 1 Figure 13. FORWARD P/E: EMERGING ECONOMIES MSCI Forward P/E* Argentina (11.) Brazil (.) Mexico (1.4) 2 24 22 1 4 2 199 199 1997 199 1999 1 2 3 4 7 9 11 13 1 17 1 4 2 * Price divided by -month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Monthly through December, weekly thereafter. Page 9 / October, / Global Index Briefing: MSCI Forward P/Es www.
Figure. ARGENTINA MSCI VALUATION MULTIPLE* 2 Forward P/E (11.) 2 1 1 199 199 1997 199 1999 1 2 3 4 7 9 11 13 1 17 1 * Price divided by forward consensus expected earnings per share. Monthly data through December, weekly thereafter. 2 Figure 1. AUSTRALIA MSCI VALUATION MULTIPLE* 2 Forward P/E (.1) 1 1 199 199 1997 199 1999 1 2 3 4 7 9 11 13 1 17 1 * Price divided by forward consensus expected earnings per share. Monthly data through December, weekly thereafter. Page / October, / Global Index Briefing: MSCI Forward P/Es www.
Figure. AUSTRIA MSCI VALUATION MULTIPLE* Forward P/E (.3) 1 1 199 199 1997 199 1999 1 2 3 4 7 9 11 13 1 17 1 * Price divided by forward consensus expected earnings per share. Monthly data through December, weekly thereafter. 2 Figure 17. BELGIUM MSCI VALUATION MULTIPLE* 2 Forward P/E (.) 1 1 199 199 1997 199 1999 1 2 3 4 7 9 11 13 1 17 1 * Price divided by forward consensus expected earnings per share. Monthly data through December, weekly thereafter. Page 11 / October, / Global Index Briefing: MSCI Forward P/Es www.
Figure 1. BRAZIL MSCI VALUATION MULTIPLE* 13 Forward P/E (.) 13 11 11 9 9 7 7 4 199 199 1997 199 1999 1 2 3 4 7 9 11 13 1 17 1 4 * Price divided by forward consensus expected earnings per share. Monthly data through December, weekly thereafter. 2 Figure 19. CANADA MSCI VALUATION MULTIPLE* 2 2 24 Forward P/E (.3) 2 24 22 22 1 1 199 199 1997 199 1999 1 2 3 4 7 9 11 13 1 17 1 * Price divided by forward consensus expected earnings per share. Monthly data through December, weekly thereafter. Page / October, / Global Index Briefing: MSCI Forward P/Es www.
2 Figure. CHILE MSCI VALUATION MULTIPLE* Forward P/E (.) 2 1 1 199 199 1997 199 1999 1 2 3 4 7 9 11 13 1 17 1 * Price divided by forward consensus expected earnings per share. Monthly data through December, weekly thereafter. 4 Figure 21. CHINA MSCI VALUATION MULTIPLE* 4 3 3 Forward P/E (.3) 2 2 1 1 199 199 1997 199 1999 1 2 3 4 7 9 11 13 1 17 1 * Price divided by forward consensus expected earnings per share. Monthly data through December, weekly thereafter. Page 13 / October, / Global Index Briefing: MSCI Forward P/Es www.
Figure 22. CZECH REPUBLIC MSCI VALUATION MULTIPLE* 2 Forward P/E (13.) 2 1 1 199 199 1997 199 1999 1 2 3 4 7 9 11 13 1 17 1 * Price divided by forward consensus expected earnings per share. Monthly data through December, weekly thereafter. Figure 23. DENMARK MSCI VALUATION MULTIPLE* 2 Forward P/E (17.) 2 1 1 199 199 1997 199 1999 1 2 3 4 7 9 11 13 1 17 1 * Price divided by forward consensus expected earnings per share. Monthly data through December, weekly thereafter. Page / October, / Global Index Briefing: MSCI Forward P/Es www.
Figure 24. EGYPT MSCI VALUATION MULTIPLE* Forward P/E (9.2) 1 1 199 199 1997 199 1999 1 2 3 4 7 9 11 13 1 17 1 * Price divided by forward consensus expected earnings per share. Monthly data through December, weekly thereafter. Figure 2. FINLAND MSCI VALUATION MULTIPLE* 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 Forward P/E (.) 2 1 1 199 199 1997 199 1999 1 2 3 4 7 9 11 13 1 17 1 * Price divided by forward consensus expected earnings per share. Monthly data through December, weekly thereafter. Page 1 / October, / Global Index Briefing: MSCI Forward P/Es www.
Figure 2. FRANCE MSCI VALUATION MULTIPLE* 2 Forward P/E (13.) 2 1 1 199 199 1997 199 1999 1 2 3 4 7 9 11 13 1 17 1 * Price divided by forward consensus expected earnings per share. Monthly data through December, weekly thereafter. 3 Figure 27. GERMANY MSCI VALUATION MULTIPLE* 3 Forward P/E (.7) 2 2 1 1 199 199 1997 199 1999 1 2 3 4 7 9 11 13 1 17 1 * Price divided by forward consensus expected earnings per share. Monthly data through December, weekly thereafter. Page / October, / Global Index Briefing: MSCI Forward P/Es www.
4 Figure 2. GREECE MSCI VALUATION MULTIPLE* 4 3 3 2 Forward P/E (.7) 2 1 1 199 199 1997 199 1999 1 2 3 4 7 9 11 13 1 17 1 * Price divided by forward consensus expected earnings per share. Monthly data through December, weekly thereafter. 2 Figure 29. HONG KONG MSCI VALUATION MULTIPLE* 2 Forward P/E (.3) 1 1 199 199 1997 199 1999 1 2 3 4 7 9 11 13 1 17 1 * Price divided by forward consensus expected earnings per share. Monthly data through December, weekly thereafter. Page 17 / October, / Global Index Briefing: MSCI Forward P/Es www.
Figure. HUNGARY MSCI VALUATION MULTIPLE* Forward P/E (.) 1 1 199 199 1997 199 1999 1 2 3 4 7 9 11 13 1 17 1 * Price divided by forward consensus expected earnings per share. Monthly data through December, weekly thereafter. 2 Figure 31. INDIA MSCI VALUATION MULTIPLE* 2 Forward P/E (17.7) 1 1 199 199 1997 199 1999 1 2 3 4 7 9 11 13 1 17 1 * Price divided by forward consensus expected earnings per share. Monthly data through December, weekly thereafter. Page 1 / October, / Global Index Briefing: MSCI Forward P/Es www.
4 Figure 32. INDONESIA MSCI VALUATION MULTIPLE* 4 3 Forward P/E (17.) 3 2 2 1 1 199 199 1997 199 1999 1 2 3 4 7 9 11 13 1 17 1 * Price divided by forward consensus expected earnings per share. Monthly data through December, weekly thereafter. 4 4 Figure 33. IRELAND MSCI VALUATION MULTIPLE* 4 4 3 Forward P/E (.) 3 2 2 1 1 P/E capped at 4 due to extreme values. 199 199 1997 199 1999 1 2 3 4 7 9 11 13 1 17 1 * Price divided by forward consensus expected earnings per share. Monthly data through December, weekly thereafter. Page 19 / October, / Global Index Briefing: MSCI Forward P/Es www.
Figure 34. ISRAEL MSCI VALUATION MULTIPLE* 2 Forward P/E (.3) 2 1 1 199 199 1997 199 1999 1 2 3 4 7 9 11 13 1 17 1 * Price divided by forward consensus expected earnings per share. Monthly data through December, weekly thereafter. Figure 3. ITALY MSCI VALUATION MULTIPLE* 2 Forward P/E (11.4) 2 1 1 199 199 1997 199 1999 1 2 3 4 7 9 11 13 1 17 1 * Price divided by forward consensus expected earnings per share. Monthly data through December, weekly thereafter. Page / October, / Global Index Briefing: MSCI Forward P/Es www.
Figure 3. JAPAN MSCI VALUATION MULTIPLE* Forward P/E (13.7) 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 199 199 1997 199 1999 1 2 3 4 7 9 11 13 1 17 1 * Price divided by forward consensus expected earnings per share. Monthly data through December, weekly thereafter. 22 Figure 37. KOREA MSCI VALUATION MULTIPLE* 22 1 Forward P/E (.2) 1 4 199 199 1997 199 1999 1 2 3 4 7 9 11 13 1 17 1 4 * Price divided by forward consensus expected earnings per share. Monthly data through December, weekly thereafter. Page 21 / October, / Global Index Briefing: MSCI Forward P/Es www.
Figure 3. MALAYSIA MSCI VALUATION MULTIPLE* 2 Forward P/E (.) 2 1 1 199 199 1997 199 1999 1 2 3 4 7 9 11 13 1 17 1 * Price divided by forward consensus expected earnings per share. Monthly data through December, weekly thereafter. 24 Figure 39. MEXICO MSCI VALUATION MULTIPLE* 24 22 Forward P/E (1.4) 22 1 1 199 199 1997 199 1999 1 2 3 4 7 9 11 13 1 17 1 * Price divided by forward consensus expected earnings per share. Monthly data through December, weekly thereafter. Page 22 / October, / Global Index Briefing: MSCI Forward P/Es www.
2 Figure 4. NETHERLANDS MSCI VALUATION MULTIPLE* 2 Forward P/E (1.1) 1 1 199 199 1997 199 1999 1 2 3 4 7 9 11 13 1 17 1 * Price divided by forward consensus expected earnings per share. Monthly data through December, weekly thereafter. 24 Figure 41. NEW ZEALAND MSCI VALUATION MULTIPLE* 24 22 22 Forward P/E (21.) 1 1 199 199 1997 199 1999 1 2 3 4 7 9 11 13 1 17 1 * Price divided by forward consensus expected earnings per share. Monthly data through December, weekly thereafter. Page 23 / October, / Global Index Briefing: MSCI Forward P/Es www.
1 Figure 42. NORWAY MSCI VALUATION MULTIPLE* 1 Forward P/E (13.) 4 199 199 1997 199 1999 1 2 3 4 7 9 11 13 1 17 1 4 * Price divided by forward consensus expected earnings per share. Monthly data through December, weekly thereafter. Figure 43. PAKISTAN MSCI VALUATION MULTIPLE* Forward P/E (9.3) 1 1 199 199 1997 199 1999 1 2 3 4 7 9 11 13 1 17 1 * Price divided by forward consensus expected earnings per share. Monthly data through December, weekly thereafter. Page 24 / October, / Global Index Briefing: MSCI Forward P/Es www.
3 Figure 44. PERU MSCI VALUATION MULTIPLE* 3 Forward P/E (.) 2 2 1 1 199 199 1997 199 1999 1 2 3 4 7 9 11 13 1 17 1 * Price divided by forward consensus expected earnings per share. Monthly data through December, weekly thereafter. 2 Figure 4. PHILIPPINES MSCI VALUATION MULTIPLE* 2 Forward P/E (1.3) 1 1 199 199 1997 199 1999 1 2 3 4 7 9 11 13 1 17 1 * Price divided by forward consensus expected earnings per share. Monthly data through December, weekly thereafter. Page 2 / October, / Global Index Briefing: MSCI Forward P/Es www.
Figure 4. POLAND MSCI VALUATION MULTIPLE* 2 Forward P/E (11.2) 2 1 1 199 199 1997 199 1999 1 2 3 4 7 9 11 13 1 17 1 * Price divided by forward consensus expected earnings per share. Monthly data through December, weekly thereafter. Figure 47. PORTUGAL MSCI VALUATION MULTIPLE* 2 Forward P/E (1.1) 2 1 1 199 199 1997 199 1999 1 2 3 4 7 9 11 13 1 17 1 * Price divided by forward consensus expected earnings per share. Monthly data through December, weekly thereafter. Page 2 / October, / Global Index Briefing: MSCI Forward P/Es www.
2 Figure 4. RUSSIA MSCI VALUATION MULTIPLE* 2 Forward P/E (.) 1 1 199 199 1997 199 1999 1 2 3 4 7 9 11 13 1 17 1 * Price divided by forward consensus expected earnings per share. Monthly data through December, weekly thereafter. 2 Figure 49. SINGAPORE (FREE) MSCI VALUATION MULTIPLE* 2 Forward P/E (.) 1 1 199 199 1997 199 1999 1 2 3 4 7 9 11 13 1 17 1 * Price divided by forward consensus expected earnings per share. Monthly data through December, weekly thereafter. Page 27 / October, / Global Index Briefing: MSCI Forward P/Es www.
1 Figure. SOUTH AFRICA MSCI VALUATION MULTIPLE* 1 Forward P/E (.7) 199 199 1997 199 1999 1 2 3 4 7 9 11 13 1 17 1 * Price divided by forward consensus expected earnings per share. Monthly data through December, weekly thereafter. Figure 1. SPAIN MSCI VALUATION MULTIPLE* 2 Forward P/E (.) 2 1 1 199 199 1997 199 1999 1 2 3 4 7 9 11 13 1 17 1 * Price divided by forward consensus expected earnings per share. Monthly data through December, weekly thereafter. Page 2 / October, / Global Index Briefing: MSCI Forward P/Es www.
4 Figure 2. SWEDEN MSCI VALUATION MULTIPLE* 4 3 Forward P/E (1.) 3 2 2 1 1 199 199 1997 199 1999 1 2 3 4 7 9 11 13 1 17 1 * Price divided by forward consensus expected earnings per share. Monthly data through December, weekly thereafter. 2 Figure 3. SWITZERLAND MSCI VALUATION MULTIPLE* 2 Forward P/E (17.4) 1 1 199 199 1997 199 1999 1 2 3 4 7 9 11 13 1 17 1 * Price divided by forward consensus expected earnings per share. Monthly data through December, weekly thereafter. Page 29 / October, / Global Index Briefing: MSCI Forward P/Es www.
3 Figure 4. TAIWAN MSCI VALUATION MULTIPLE* 3 Forward P/E (13.) 2 2 1 1 199 199 1997 199 1999 1 2 3 4 7 9 11 13 1 17 1 * Price divided by forward consensus expected earnings per share. Monthly data through December, weekly thereafter. 4 Figure. THAILAND MSCI VALUATION MULTIPLE* 4 4 4 3 Forward P/E (.3) 3 2 2 1 1 P/E capped at 4 due to extreme values 199 199 1997 199 1999 1 2 3 4 7 9 11 13 1 17 1 * Price divided by forward consensus expected earnings per share. Monthly data through December, weekly thereafter. Page / October, / Global Index Briefing: MSCI Forward P/Es www.
Figure. TURKEY MSCI VALUATION MULTIPLE* Forward P/E (.2) 1 1 199 199 1997 199 1999 1 2 3 4 7 9 11 13 1 17 1 * Price divided by forward consensus expected earnings per share. Monthly data through December, weekly thereafter. Figure 7. UNITED KINGDOM MSCI VALUATION MULTIPLE* 2 Forward P/E (1.) 2 1 1 199 199 1997 199 1999 1 2 3 4 7 9 11 13 1 17 1 * Price divided by forward consensus expected earnings per share. Monthly data through December, weekly thereafter. Page 31 / October, / Global Index Briefing: MSCI Forward P/Es www.
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