IMPACTS ON MINING AND THE LOCAL ECONOMY IN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY The California Desert Conservation and Recreation Act of 2015 The Sonoran Institute Research by the Sonoran Institute finds that the California Desert Conservation and Recreation Act (CDCRA) of 2015 will have minimal impact on mining operations in San Bernardino County. The legislation will also enhance the natural and cultural attractions that have been significant drivers of the regional economy for the past 4 decades. POPULATION GROWTH Over the past 4 decades, San Bernardino County has experienced steady growth in population, employment, and personal income. Between 1970 2013, the county saw a 206% population increase, the 2nd highest among the 7 desert counties: Imperial County, Inyo County, Kern County, Los Angeles County, Riverside County, San Bernardino County, and San Diego County. EMPLOYMENT Despite the county s growth, mining s contributions to the local economy have been modest, with jobs in mining playing a small role in total private employment. In 2013, San Bernardino County had 0.2% of employment in mining (around 1,400 employees). For small communities, such as Lucerne Valley, mining operations that employ 25, 50, or 100 persons are considered major employers. Most of the county s growth is driven by businesses and demographic changes that benefit directly from preserving the desert. Between 1970 2013, most of the county s employment growth was in the Services, Retail, Government, Manufacturing, Farm, and Health Care/Social Assistance Sectors.
Figure 1. San Bernardino County Employment Trends, 1970 2000. 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 Government Manufacturing Construction Agricultural services Services Finance, ins. & real estate Wholesale trade Mining, Oil & Gas Retail trade Trans. & public utilities Farm Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Economic Accounts. 2 THE CALIFORNIA DESERT CONSERVATION AND RECREATION ACT OF 2015
Figure 2. San Bernardino County Employment Trends, 2001 2013. 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Government Accommodation, Food Services Real estate, Rental, Leasing Utilities Retail Trade Other Services (excl. public admin.) Information Agric. Services, Forestry, Fishing Manufact. (incl. forest products) Transportation, Warehousing Arts, Entertainment, Recreation Mining, Oil & Gas Health Care, Social Assistance Wholesale Trade Educational Services Admin., Waste Services Professional, Scientific, Tech. Management of Companies Construction Finance, Insurance Farm Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Economic Accounts. Impacts on Mining and the Local Economy in San Bernardino County 3
PERSONAL INCOME In 2013, mining s contribution (including oil and gas) to overall labor-related income was small, approximately 0.20%. Between 1970-2013, contributions from mining operations to labor-related income fluctuated between 0.2% and 0.5%, with no defined trend. In contrast, the county s labor-related earnings between 1970 and 2013 increased by 559%. The county s non-labor income increased by 370% in that time period. Figure 3. San Bernardino County Personal Income by Source, 1969 2013. 30,000,000 25,000,000 20,000,000 15,000,000 10,000,000 Income,Thousands of 2014$ 5,000,000 0 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 Non-labor Income Manufacturing Farming Services and Professional Transportation & Utilities Ag Services, Forestry & Fishing Government Construction Mining, Oil & Gas Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Economic Accounts. 4 THE CALIFORNIA DESERT CONSERVATION AND RECREATION ACT OF 2015
9,000 Figure 4. San Bernardino County Personal Income Labor Earnings, 1970 2000. 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 Millions of 2014 $s 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 Government Retail trade Wholesale trade Agricultural services Manufacturing Trans. & public utilities Finance, ins. & real estate Mining, Oil & Gas Services Construction Farm Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Economic Accounts. Impacts on Mining and the Local Economy in San Bernardino County 5
Figure 5. San Bernardino County Personal Income Labor Earnings, 2001 2013. 14,000 12,000 10,000 Millions of 2014 $s 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Government Wholesale Trade Accommodation, Food Services Arts, Entertainment, Recreation Manufact. (incl. forest products) Other Services (excl. public admin.) Management of Companies Mining, Oil & Gas Health Care, Social Assistance Admin., Waste services Information Agric. Services, Forestry, Fishing Retail Trade Real estate, Rental, Leasing Utilities Construction Professional, Scientific, Tech. Educational Services Transportation, Warehousing Finance, Insurance Farm Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Economic Accounts. 6 THE CALIFORNIA DESERT CONSERVATION AND RECREATION ACT OF 2015
OVERALL ECONOMIC CONTRIBUTION These trends reflect the increasing importance of regional amenities, notably natural and cultural attractions. This has profound implications for the economic role of protected public lands as an important economic asset. Tourism and recreation remains one of the bright spots of San Bernardino County s economy: total direct travel spending in the county in 2013 reached $4.4 billion, as reported by Dean Runyan Associates to the California Travel & Tourism Commission. By comparison, when direct, indirect, and induced impacts on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) are considered, mining s contribution to nominal GDP in 2014 is estimated at $1.2 billion, 1.5% of nominal GDP (nominal GDP is a Gross Domestic Product figure that has not been adjusted for inflation). In the desert portion of the county, mining s contribution may reach as high as 5%. These estimates likely represent upper limits, as the multipliers used were developed for use at the state level and likely overestimate impacts. CONSERVATION DESIGNATIONS Through its extensive conservation designations, the California Desert Conservation and Recreation Act (CDCRA) of 2015 seeks to preserve San Bernardino County s natural and cultural attractions, which have fueled much of the region s growth and prosperity. Proposed Designation in San Bernardino County Avawatz Mountains WLD Black Lave Butte Flat Top Mesa Death Valley 17 WSA Death Valley WLD Dumont Dunes El Mirage NOHV Golden Valley WLD Grass Valley WLD Johnson Valley NOHV Joshua Tree Kingston Range WLD Mojave National Preserve (inc. Castle Mountains) Mojave Trails National Monument Rasor NOHV Sand to Snow National Monument Soda Mountains WLD Spangler Hills NOHV Stoddard Valley NOHV Designation Type Wilderness ACEC Transfer to NPS Wilderness Addition to NPS National OHV Recreation Area National OHV Recreation Area Wilderness Addition Wilderness Addition National OHV Recreation Area Transfer to NPS Wilderness Addition Transfer to NPS National Monument National OHV Recreation Area National Monument Wilderness National OHV Recreation Area National OHV Recreation Area Impacts on Mining and the Local Economy in San Bernardino County 7
CURRENT MINING IMPACTS As currently drafted, the legislation recognizes and protects existing mining claims and minimizes impacts on current mining operations. The county s major mining operations include Mountain Pass Rare Earth Mine and Mill (scheduled for closure in October 2015); the cement plants Cushenbury Plant, Oro Grande Quarry, Black Mountain Quarry and Victorville Cement Plant; and limestone from Lucerne Valley Plant and Quarry, and Omya California. The boundaries of the conservation designations have been drawn so as not to impact these and other operations. Figure 6. Current Mining Activities Inside the Proposed Designations, San Bernardino County. Sources: Bureau of Land Management Land & Mineral Legacy Rehost 2000 System (LR2000 System), http://www.blm.gov/lr2000/; US Department of Labor, Mine Safety and Health Administration, http://www.msha.gov/opengovernmentdata/ogimsha.asp; DRECP EIS analysis, Appendix R1.15, http://www.drecp.org/draftdrecp. 8 THE CALIFORNIA DESERT CONSERVATION AND RECREATION ACT OF 2015
FUTURE MINING IMPACTS Potential impacts of the legislation on future mining activities in San Bernardino County are few, due to significant mineral development opportunities outside of the proposed conservation designations. These areas include: 3,001 instances of mineral occurrences; 8,803 active mining claims; and 392,773 acres of high mineral potential. Figure 7. Active Mining Claims, Mineral Occurrences and High Potential Minerals, San Bernardino County. Sources: Bureau of Land Management, Land & Mineral Legacy Rehost 2000 System, http://www.blm.gov/lr2000/; USGS Mineral Resources Data System dataset, http://mrdate.usgs.gov/mrds/; DRECP EIS analysis, Appendix R1.15, http://www.drecp.org/draftdrecp. Impacts on Mining and the Local Economy in San Bernardino County 9
CONCLUSION The California Desert Conservation and Recreation Act is compatible with ongoing mining activities and allows for future development of critical and competitive mineral resources. Moreover, the protective designations proposed under the legislation likely represent the highest and best economic use of those public lands. ABOUT THE SONORAN INSTITUTE Founded in 1990, the Sonoran Institute s mission is to connect people and communities with the natural resources that nourish and sustain them. We work at the nexus of commerce, community, and conservation to help people in the North American West build the communities they want to live in while preserving the values that brought them here. We envision a West where civil dialogue and collaboration are hallmarks of decision making, where people and wildlife live in harmony, and where clean water, air, and energy are assured. This fact sheet is part of a study the Sonoran Institute prepared, The California Desert Conservation and Recreation Act of 2015: Impacts on Mining and the Regional Economy, which can be found at www.sonoraninstitute.org. 10 THE CALIFORNIA DESERT CONSERVATION AND RECREATION ACT OF 2015
Impacts on Mining and the Local Economy in San Bernardino County 11
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