20 April 2016 OFF-GRID SOLAR MARKET TRENDS Clean Energy Solutions Center webinar Itamar Orlandi
DISCLAIMER The information contained in this publication is derived from carefully selected sources we believe are reasonable. We do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness and nothing in this document shall be construed to be a representation of such a guarantee. Any opinions expressed reflect the current judgment of the author of the relevant article or features, and does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Bloomberg Finance L.P., Bloomberg L.P. or any of their affiliates ("Bloomberg"). The opinions presented are subject to change without notice. Bloomberg accepts no responsibility for any liability arising from use of this document or its contents. Nothing herein shall constitute or be construed as an offering of financial instruments, or as investment advice or recommendations by Bloomberg of an investment strategy or whether or not to "buy," "sell" or "hold" an investment. 1
PICO-SOLAR LANTERN COST DEVELOPMENT ($ PER UNIT) Packaging LEDs low-cost LED lantern 30-60 lumens, 2.5W panel 19.7 PCB and other electronics Plastic casing Battery PV panel 5 hours of 25 lumen light 4.4 This LED may also be slightly brighter (250 vs 211 lumens/w) 3.1 2010 2015 2020 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, company interviews, Lighting Africa 2010 report, EERE Solid-State Lighting Program 2
OFF-GRID SOLAR MARKET SEGMENTS Scope for today Micro- and minigrids Solar home systems Portable lights From left to right: Renewit Solar Homework Light, Mobisol Famility SHS 19 TV, hybrid mini-grid in Malaysia Photo source: Lighting Global, German Wikipedia 3
ESTIMATED NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS USING PICO- PV (MILLIONS, JUNE 2015) India 8.1 Other SSA 3.2 Kenya 2.7 Tanzania 2.5 Ethiopia 2.0 Other Asia 0.4 Nigeria 0.3 Note: assumes 10% repeat sales, 3% loss, repurchase after 3 years and discounts 80% of unbranded products. Livelihood figures assumes 10% of customers use products for small businesses. Does not include supply chain livelihoods supported. Data for Bangladesh excludes solar products sold under the IDCOL program. * cumulative emission reductions over the useful life period of Lighting Global quality-verified products only. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Lighting Global, GOGLA 4
ESTIMATED CUMULATIVE SALES OF PICO-SOLAR LIGHTING PRODUCTS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA AND ASIA, 2011 H1 2015 (MILLIONS OF UNITS) 44.2 34.5 26.4 19.1 13.2 7.9 5.0 3.2 1.9 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Generics (BNEF estimate) Other branded products - other companies Other branded - Lighting Global associated companies Lighting Global quality-verified products Note: These figures comprise branded and generic solar lanterns and small solar home systems of 10W or less. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Lighting Global, GOGLA. 5
SOLAR PANEL SIZE OF SELECTED PAY-AS-YOU-GO COMPANIES (W) The majority of pay-as-you-go firms offer home systems designed to power more than just a few lights and a phone charger. 50 100 150 200 250 300 Watt Mobisol Nova Lumos SolarNow Brighterlite / Easypaysa Kamworks Kingo EGG Energy BBOXX Off-Grid Electric Fenix International PEG Ghana M-Kopa Mibawa Azuri Larger solar home systems Pico-PV home systems Note: Pico-PV is defined as <10W. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, company websites 6
EXISTING AND POTENTIAL CROSS-INDUSTRY PARTNERSHIPS Payments M-PESA Telecom Safricom, MTN, Vodafone Mobile connectivity Payment Banking and insurance Existing Potential Retail businesses Education / Entertainment Electricity applications Light Mobile computing /TV Water pumps Agriculture Cold Health/Pharma Beverages Coca Cola 7
OFF-GRID SOLAR AS RETAIL CHANNEL HEADLINES FROM THE LAST FEW MONTHS Source: MTN press release, http://bit.ly/1pkff1g Source: Solarkiosk website, http://bit.ly/1o2qrwa Source: M-Kopa website, http://bit.ly/1q8djwl Source: Mobisol website, http://bit.ly/20xczdw Source: Company websites 8
PATHWAYS TO SUCCESS UBIQUITOUS PRODUCT MARKET RELATIONSHIP MARKET High value, premium branding/products Modular products or bundled offerings Counterfeit enforcement Minimum quality and service standards Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 9
MARKETS Renewable Energy Energy Smart Technologies Advanced Transport Gas Carbon and RECs SERVICES Americas Service Asia Pacific Service EMEA Service Applied Research Events and Workshops Unique analysis, tools and data for decision-makers driving change in the energy system Itamar Orlandi sales.bnef@bloomberg.net