IBM Global Services Evolution of video Is fiber necessary? Kjell Arne Yttervik Business development Executive IBM April 10-11, 2008 Copyright IBM Corporation 2006 2008 IBM Corporation
Agenda What are the Key drivers for Digital Media? Will High Definition Video be the differentiator and how will it evolve into new services? How will this influence the need for bandwidth? Are these predictions built on actual findings or just another guess?. What are the Nordic experiences so far? 2
The bandwidth available for the end users has increased rapidly since 1993. 1 Gbps Is this growth fueled by need for new Digital Services or what is possible from a technology point of view? Will this growth continue? Indefinitely? HDTV and large files transfers HD-OnDemand 100 Mbps WWW 28 Kbps Internett for browsing, banking and entertainment 56 Kbps Base: $1450 M Entertainment through video and audio Growth: $1671 M 756 Kbps 128 Kbps Analogue and ISDN modems ADSL Base: $2095 M Growth: $2270 M 1.2 Mbps ADSL Fiber to the Home 10 Mbps 8 Mbps 18 Mbps ADSL2+ Fiber to the Home 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 VDSL2+ Fiber to the Home 2009 3
A new media consumer has emerged, the Digital Consumer.. an empowered, enabled and knowledgeable consumer that wants to engage, interact, collaborate, transact and create when, where, how and with whom they choose. My Computer My Health My Television My Appliances Continuity of Experience My Friends My Interests/Favorites My Work My Family My Colleagues My My Blogs My Play Likes/Dislikes My Kids My Money My Consumers My Appliances My Lifestyle My Mobile Phone My House My Car My Console My PDA 4
The TV behavior has changed and will continue to change. The shift has gone quicker than forecasted 2006 Basic TV functionality NOW live control simple recording of TV programs access to an electronic program guide (EPG) management of program recorded simple search functions (sorting by date or channel) Time-Shifting 5 In the short-medium term, personal TV should enhance its offers with new functionalities such as: high-definition compatibility, options for multiple TV sets advanced search functions automatic personalized recordings remote programming of recordings via Internet or mobile telephone TV networking with other home audiovisual devices, offering users: easy access to media center functionalities for managing their personal digital content (photos, music, etc.), and content-sharing between their various home terminals (mobile phone, PC, ipod, PMP, etc.). IDATE 2007 with IBM comments 2008 2011 Place-Shifting Device-Shifting
The 6 main Video drivers for bandwidth 1 Non linear TV 2 TV HD-Ready 3 The content Network matrix 4 Content explosion 5 User generated content 6 3D communities 6
So what are the consumers watching today? Has these new services already had an impact? IBM statistics and experiences mainly in the Nordics Basic TV package is 17-25 channels 30% 50% buy additional TV packages 53% of users with a DVR report watching at least 50% of television on replay Over 50% of the households has rented a Video on Demand (VOD) Year over year growth in VOD above 100% from 2005-2008. Small VOD library contains 300 500 top titles Growing! The growth in FTV ( free to view) POD has been even more aggressive HD channels already available, but still in small numbers The EPG or portal is key: 41% 17% 7
HDTV is just a stop on the way to the ultimate video experience. Will 4K or UHDTV be the next topic? 4K Potential format to follow Blue-Ray. Format with the resolution of 4096 x 2150, for a total of 4 times the pixel resolution as existing HDTV (1080p). Aimed for digital cinema and tv sets > 60 Already supported by cameras and projectors in 2007 Rumored to Looks like 4k is being released to consumers in 2012 before the Olympics Ultra High Definition Video, UHDV Super Hi-Vision, also known as Ultra High Definition Video, UHDV, Ultra High Definition Television, UHDTV and UHD is an experimental digital video format, currently proposed by NHK of Japan. The new format with a resolution of 7,680 4,320 pixels is four times as wide and four times as high (for a total of 16 times the pixel resolution) as existing HDTV. Source- www.wikipedia.org,, www.blu-ray.com, www.cnet.com, 8
The experience from over 100.000 Norwegian FTTH household is clear The growth in capacity utilized is exploding. The growth will continue Assumptions: Based on experiences and growth at 100.000 Norwegian FTTH households Based on the delivery of Multiple Play service with fiber as the main source for TV distribution Based on the assumption on 20% growth in internett capacity needed every year Exemplified number of concurrent video streams per. households: 2008: 1 SD unicast, 1 SD Multicast and 1 HD Multicast stream 2012: 1 SD unicast, 2 HD unicast and 2 HD Multicast stream 2020: 5 HD unicast 1 HD Multicast stream The average customer is a 4 member family and their aggregated need for bandwidth A gradual shift from MPEG2 to MPEG 4 in 2008 2012 improved encoding algorithms with 10% efficiency gains p.r. year Based on an estimate that in 2010 2012 the bandwidth utilized for unicast will surpass Multicast No K4 or UHDV included 9 Sources: IBM 2008
In the end the questions are who will define how much bandwidth is necessary? Who will define the future? 1 Gbps End users Telco provider 100 Mbps 28 Kbps 56 Kbps Base: $1450 M Growth: $1671 M 756 Kbps 128 Kbps Analogue and ISDN modems ADSL Base: $2095 M Growth: $2270 M 1.2 Mbps ADSL Fiber to the Home 10 Mbps 8 Mbps 18 Mbps ADSL2+ Fiber to the Home 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 VDSL2+ Fiber to the Home 2009 10
Thank you for your time! Kjell Arne Yttervik Business Development Executive IBM Norway yttervik@no.ibm.com 11