MALAYSIA THE MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS AT 2010 1
MDG 1: ERADICATE EXTREME POVERTY AND HUNGER Achieved at country level, although slight increase to 3.8% in 2009, from 3.6% in 2007 for HHs or >6% of population in poverty ~1.5 million persons Figures are down sharply from 1990 and 1999 but not in all state and strata levels: esp for Sabah For indigenous minorities: poverty incidence went up in 2009, from 2007 Children (under-15) poverty, 8.9% in 2009 almost 2.5x poverty rate, ~660,000 children; relative & absolute increase from 2007 Urban poverty, under 2%, but 31% of poor households in 2009, up from 24% in 1999; possible increase in absolute numbers Poverty of agricultural households, 18% in 1999 decrease to 13% in 2009; but proportion of total poor households up from 38% (1999) to 44% (2009) Income inequality: high and little changed from 1990 2
Incidence of Poverty by Strata, 1990-2009
Poverty by State, 1990-2009 4
Rural Poverty Incidence by State, 1990-2009 5
Incidence of Poverty (%) Poverty by Ethnicity 35 30 25 20 15 10 17 32 17 21 1989 2009 5 0 3 2 1 6 2 Malay Chinese Indian Other Bumiputera 7 Others
Proportion of bottom 40% HHs in each ethnic group, 1989 AND 2009 (%)
Income Inequality Gini Coefficient 1989: 0.482 2007: 0.471 2009: 0.473 Persistent Poverty in Bottom 40 % of Households - Share in Total HH Income: 1990 1995 1999 2004 2009 14.3 13.7 13.2 13.5 14.3
Monthly Household Income (RM) Income Inequality 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 1989 1999 2009 Year p90 p50 p10
Income Distribution among Poor Households by Gender of Household Head, 2009
Women-headed households Women-headed households - higher probability of being poor Poor Poor without welfare Male-headed 3.7 4.2 4.7 Female-headed 4.1 6.2 5.8 Poor without remittances 11
Poverty by Education of Household Head, 2009 (%) Education of Household Head Primary or less 7.765 Secondary 2.733 Post secondary or tertiary 0.200
GDP/capita (const LCU), 1970=1 Source: UNSTATS 13
Target 1B - Decent Employment Non-agr informal sector at 20%, small by most DC standards Women in informal sector: much lower mean earnings Under-employment (<35 hours a week): 10% in 2008; Higher for those with Primary education: 16% Youth unemployment increased Unemployment for 15-24 at 11% (2008), accounting for 60% of the unemployed; Increased to 12% in 2009 Account for 5% of youth population and 6 x adult unemployment rate 14
Decent Employment Employment to population ratio: Stable Youth employment: Rising
Target 1C - Halve hunger Focus: children (under-5) hunger Achieved at all levels But child poverty in a number of states above 10% Concern with validity of data: need for sample surveys, perhaps in combination with HIS 16
Children in Poverty by State, 1989 and 2007
MDG 2 Universal Primary Education Target 2A: complete course of primary education Net enrolment Primary, practically achieved (does not cover children of nondocumented population) Pockets, e.g., Penan, OrangAsli, Pockets & poor/low income, amount to >100,000 children not in school Secondary, getting there Drop-out at transition from primary: about 3-4%, about 20,000 Inter-state/strata differentials Poor/Non-poor divide significant MDG++: quality, as measured by examinations Reason for significant concern, esp with nation s ambitions 18
Decent starting point Census 2000 19
Poor and not-in-school, 2007 20
PMR 2008 by Grades 21
PMR 2008, Maths & Science 22
TIMSS 1999 & 2007 Maths 23
TIMSS 2007 Maths 24
MDG 3 PROMOTE GENDER EQUALITY AND EMPOWERMENT OF WOMEN Target 3A: Gender Parity Education: achieved, or better, at all levels LFPR 45.7% in 2008 Stagnant over 25 years; increasing at 25-34 age group; significant drop out, presumably on marriage/child-bearing Non-agr employment: higher than proportion in labour force and growing, but Gender wage disparities Participation in admin/managerial level - low Representation in Parliament: stagnant, at low level 25
Gender Gap Index Malaysian Gender Gap Index: 1980: 0.34 2009: 0.25 Education = 0.041 Health = 0.121 Economic participation = 0.246 Women empowerment = 0.578 (high inequality) Global Gender Gap Index: 2006: 72 2007: 92 2010: 98 UNDP Human Development Index: 2005: 61 2009: 66 Gender-related Development Index: 2005: 50 2009: 88 Gender Empowerment Index: 2005: 51 2009: 68
Share of women in wage employment in nonagricultural sector by state 27
Gender gap in labour force participation by ethnicity, 1995-2007 Figure 3.5 Male-female gap in labour force participation rates by ethnicity 40.0 g a p t 38.0 in o p g e ta 36.0 n rce e p 34.0 a le m -fe a le 32.0 M 30.0 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Total Malaysian Malay Other Bumiputera Chinese Indians Note: Thre-year moving averages from 2000-2008 28
Women in Political Life 29
Violence Against Women by State 30
MDG 4 REDUCE CHILD MORTALITY Target 4A: reduce u5mr by two-thirds, i.e. to under- 6/1000 by 2015 u5mr Halved to a low 8/1000 in 2000; static since Last mile will be difficult, related to more than just health services Data issues: Sabah, specifically IMR 13.2/1000 in 1990 to 6/1000 in 2000, static since measles/mmr vaccination At country level, practically achieved Significant pockets not captured at aggregate level 31
Under-five mortality rates 1985-2008
u5mr by State, 1990-2007 W.P. Kuala Lumpur Terengganu Selangor Sarawak 20 Johor 15 10 5 0 Kedah Kelantan Melaka Negeri Sembilan Sabah Pulau Pinang Perlis Perak Pahang 1990 2000 2007
u5mr by per cap HH income, 2007 34
u5mr by state poverty, 2007 35
Children from Poor HHs Low birth weight: 10%, apparently increased from 8% in early 1990 s; although data does not indicate it, it is probable that they tend to be from poor households Low birth weight children are at greater risk of mortality Children under-15: 9% poor, make up 45% of poor persons (2009) Will give rise to the next generation of poor and excluded people
MDG 5 IMPROVE MATERNAL HEALTH Target 5A: reduce MMR by three-quarters, i.e. 11/100,000 Reduced by 44% from 1990 to under-30/100,000 by 2000; flat since/ no reduction since Further reduction MOH target is 20/100,000 by 2015 will be challenging. Target 5B: reproductive health ANC: aggregate level (one visit), very high But pockets missed almost altogether, e.g. Penan Contraceptive Prevalence Rate: low, and static for decades Unmet need: high 37
Deaths per 100,000 live births Maternal Mortality 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Issues of Sexual Reproductive Health CPR stagnant since 1984 at around 50%, high unmet need with low fertility suggests abortions Mean age of marriage now 25 yrs Imply adolescent sexual activity leading to unwanted pregnancies, births, abandoned babies, child abuse RTI/STI: under-reporting (private sector) implications for modelling of HIV/AIDS Should review policies re SRH education, contraception (married/unmarried) & abortion 39
MDG 6: COMBAT HIV/AIDS, MALARIA, AND OTHER DISEASES Target 6A: halt & reverse HIV/AIDS On reported cases and screening: halted, perhaps even reversed but not clear if sustainable Reported cases on the decline in PM and Sabah, still rising in Sarawak, but from low levels Different transmission pattern between Peninsula, and Sabah & Sarawak: latter needs close monitoring, esp in view of apparently much higher incidence of STI s Shift of transmission mode from predominantly injecting drug use to increasingly sexual transmission Target 6B: Anti Retroviral Treatment (ART) for all on reported cases, covers majority; new recommended regime requires more resources 40
HIV & AIDS: decreasing case notification Notification rates: Number of cases detected: 2002: 28.5 cases per 100,000 population 2009: 10.8 cases per 100,000 population Based on total screened: 2002: 0.82% 2009: 0.25% Increased screening coverage from almost 673,000 in 2000 to over 1.21 million in 2009 Potential limitations: Screening bias Does not represent spread of infection Groups that receive routine HIV screening Women receiving ANC in government facilities Blood donors Inmates in Drug Rehabilitation Centres High risk prison inmates i.e. drug users, sex workers Confirmed TB cases STI cases Patients with suspected clinical symptoms Traced contacts of confirmed persons with HIV Premarital couples Migrant workers Participants of harm reduction programmes 41
Most at-risk populations (MARPs) Concentrated epidemic: Low prevalence (<0.5%) among general population High (>5%) in pockets of population in groups identified as having higher risk behaviour profile Injecting drug users Sex workers and their clients Men who have sex with men Transgender population Shift of transmission mode from a predominantly injecting drug use to increasingly more sexual transmission of HIV 42
Reported HIV cases, by region HIV transmission patterns vary between between Peninsula and East Malaysia. In the Peninsula, trends follow the national IDU driven epidemic (high notification rates in the east coast states) while transmission is mostly sexual in East Malaysia. 43
Halt & Reverse Malaria; TB Malaria: almost eliminated at national level Issue of proper denominator for incidence, as malaria is now restricted to pockets, e.g., Penan, Orang Asli, etc. In such pockets, the incidence can be very high TB: incidence has increased slightly since 1990 Tracking of Multi-Drug Resistant TB
MDG 7: ENSURE ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY Integrate principles of SD into policies & programmes, reverse loss of environmental resources, reduce biodiversity loss Framework in place; multilateral participation Realisations such as National Physical Plan; use of ODS established targets, e.g., at least 50% forest cover; totally protected areas Issues of adequacy of indicators, e.g., forest cover, fish stocks Issues of measurement, implementation, monitoring & evaluation 45
Forest cover 62% of country under forest cover. Data for Sabah/Sarawak: FRA 2010 suggests inadequate Includes: Primary Production (licensed for logging) Forest plantation, including exotic species Rubber plantation (allowed under FAO definition) Forest change to plantations and other land use should take into consideration socio-economic development needs of people e.g. impact on indigenous minorities 46
Threatened Species By 2008 International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species: Malaysia among top 20 countries with largest number of threatened mammal, bird and conifer species Mammals 70 species Birds 42 species Conifer 15 species 47
metric tonnes of CO2 per capita Carbon dioxide emissions selected countries, 2000-2006 (metric tonnes of CO2 per capita) Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Fuel Combustion of Selected Countries 25 20 15 10 5 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Year Philippines Indonesia Thailand Malaysia United Kingdom Japan Singapore Brunei Australia United States Source: Series data, Millennium Development Goals Indicators, the official United Nations site for the MDG Indicators 48
toe/ million $ (at constant 2000 price) Energy use per GDP Energy Use per GDP 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1995 2000 2005 Year Hong Kong Thailand Ireland Malaysia Singapore Energy use per capita is highest in Malaysia compared to the other countries shown Source: Earth Trends/ World Resources Institute 49
Fish Stocks Decreased landings in Sabah and Sarawak Declines were greatest in the shallow depths (<50 m) where the biomass declined to 4 20% of the original estimates Fishery management programme to enhance conservation of fish resources; moratorium on issuance of fishing licenses. 50
m3/person/year Water Consumption Footprint Water Footprint* of Consumption 1997 2001 2500 2000 1500 1000 External Internal 500 0 Japan Indonesia Sweden Thailand Malaysia Country Source: Living Planet Report 2008 51
Access to Safe Drinking Water and Basic Sanitation Starting from a high level of coverage of improved water & sanitation Nationally, well over 90% However, disparities between states, strata, ethnic groups (esp indigenous minorities), poor/nonpoor 52
% % Improved Sanitation facility 100 80 60 40 20 0 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Proportion of Population using Improved Sanitation Facility (Flush & Pour Flush), 2007 Johor Kedah Johor Kedah Kelantan Melaka N Sembilan Pahang P Pinang Perak State Perlis Selangor Terengganu Sabah Sarawak Malaysia Sanitation Facilities by Strata, 2007 Kelantan Melaka N Sembilan Pahang P Pinang Perak State Perlis Selangor Terengganu Sabah Sarawak Malaysia Pour Flush Flush Urban Rural Source: 2007 Household Income Survey Source: 2007 Household Income Survey Sanitation facilities only refer to flush and pour flush 53
Improvement in Lives of Slum Dwellers Total households in squatter settlements reduced by 9 per cent between 2004 and 2009 But controversy, disputes & conflicts over resolutions Sabah, Johor & Perak: increase in recent years 54
No. of Households No. of Households Proportion of urban population living in squatters settlements 120,000 100,000 Number of Households Living in Squatter Settlements in Malaysia Source: Ministry of Housing and Local Government, Malaysia website (Squatters Division) 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Year 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 Number of Households Living in Squatter Settlements - Sabah, Johor and Perak 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Year Sabah Johor Perak Source: Ministry of Housing and Local Government, Malaysia website (Squatters Division) 55
MDG 8 : DEVELOP GLOBAL PARTNERSHIP FOR DEVELOPMENT Malaysia is transitioning from net aid recipient to global partner, however As developing country, heavily dependent on trade, still faces issues of equitable market access for its output Seeks policy space as well as partnership in its attempt to transition to a high income economy While cooperating in addressing telecommunications needs of its partners, faces its own digital divide, and Faces significant problems of youth unemployment 56
From Recipient to Partner Net ODA receipts now at an insignificant 0.0004% of donors GNI = 3% of expd. on social services in 9MP Contributions to multilateral organisations = RM341m from 2001-2005 MTCP = RM563m under 9MP 57
Contribution to Global Partnership for Development South-South Cooperation MTCP Bilateral Initiatives Regional initiatives Multilateral Initiatives Preferential tariff treatment for Least Developed Countries Initiatives for decent and productive work for youth Improving access to essential drug Progress in technology development broadband/internet &telephony penetration 58
Thank you 59