The Contribution of Global Agriculture to Greenhouse Gas Emissions Dr. Tommy Boland, School of Agriculture and Food Science, University College Dublin, Belfield, Dublin 4 tommy.boland@ucd.ie Acknowledge contributions of Dr. Frank O Mara (Teagasc) and Prof. Jimmy Burke (UCD)
Silver Bullet??
Global issue receiving huge attention from major organisations
What is Agriculture? Agriculture is the production, processing, marketing, and use of foods, fibers and byproducts from plant crops and animals. Agriculture was the key development that led to the rise of human civilization. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/agriculture
Overview Past trends and current GHG emissions Agricultural contribution Animals Crops Post farm gate emissions An example Mitigation potential
Global warming potential (GWP) Several gases contribute to greenhouse effect: CO 2, CH 4, N 2 O, HFC s, PFC s, SF 6 Some gases are better at trapping heat than others All converted to CO 2 equivalent for ease of calculations 1 kg CH 4 = 21 kg CO 2 1 kg N 2 O = 310 kg CO 2
Between 1970 and 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions have increased by 70 % GtCO2-eq/yr 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 Total GHG emissions 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2004
Carbon dioxide is the largest contributor
CO 2 1750-2050 11
Global Anthropogenic GHG sources 2004 (IPCC AR4)
Average temperature 1961-1990 = 15.8 C C 13
Recap GHG emissions increased 70% in last 40 years Due to anthropogenic activities CO 2 is the major contributor
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Agricultural GHG sources i) enteric fermentation (CH 4 ); ii) manure management (CH 4, N 2 O); iii) rice cultivation (CH 4 ); iv) agricultural soil management (CO 2 CH 4, N 2 O); v) prescribed burning of savannahs (CH 4, N 2 O); and vi) field burning of agricultural residues (CH 4, N 2 O). Emissions from land use change and forestry are excluded.
Global GHG emissions by sector 2004 (IPCC AR4)
Estimates of Global Agricultural GHG Emissions 8 7 Total agriculture emissions 6 Billion tonnes of CO 2 eq 5 4 3 5.1 6.1 7.1 Livestock sector emissions only 2 1 0 Denman et al (2007) US EPA (2006) FAO (2006)
Estimates of Global Agricultural GHG Emissions Billion tonnes of CO 2 eq 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 5.1 Denman et al (2007) Total agriculture emissions 6.1 US EPA (2006) 1.7 7.1 FAO (2006) Livestock responsible for c. 80% of agric emissions (FAO, 2006) so non livestock part of emissions 1.7 bt Livestock sector emissions only
Estimates of Global Agricultural GHG Emissions Billion tonnes of CO 2 eq 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 5.1 Denman et al (2007) Total agriculture emissions 6.1 US EPA (2006) 1.7 7.1 FAO (2006) Livestock responsible for c. 80% of agric emissions (FAO, 2006) so non livestock part of emissions 1.7 bt Livestock production including production of feed for animals, production of inputs, transport and processing
Emission sources included in FAO (2006) that are not counted in IPCC Agriculture category N fertiliser production 0.04 On farm fossil fuel, feed 0.06 On farm fossil fuel, livestock related 0.03 Deforestation 2.4 Cultivated soils, tillage 0.02 Cultivated soils, liming 0.01 Desertification of pasture 0.1 Processing 0.075 Transport 0.001 All figures in billion tonnes of CO 2 equivalent
Ag contribution to GHG emissions 5.1 to 6.1 Gt CO 2 equivalents per year (10-12% of total anthropogenic GHG emissions) Methane (CH 4 ) 3.3 Gt CO2 equivalents Nitrous oxide (N 2 O) 2.8 Gt CO2 equivalents Agriculture accounts for 60% of N 2 O and 50% of CH 4 CO 2 emissions are balanced at around 0.04 Gt CO 2 per year **
2000 2006 2012 2018 2024 2030 2036 2042 2048 production (2000 = 100) 220 Projected growth of global milk and meat production 200 180 160 140 Bovine meat Ovine meat Milk 120 100 FAO (2006) World agriculture: towards 2030/2050. (Adapted by O Mara 2011)
billion tonnes of CO2 eq Global agricultural emissions - trend and baseline 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1990 2005 2030 IPCC, 2007
GHG Emissions in Agriculture (Mt CO2eq. y-1) GHG Emissions in Agriculture (Mt CO2eq. y-1) There are different trends and drivers in different regions 6000 5000 4000 3000 ME&NA SSAfrica S Asia LA&C E Asia 2000 Developing regions 1990-2005: Developed countries, EIT: -12% Developing countries: +32% 1000 0 6000 5000 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Developed regions and economies in transition 4000 3000 2000 OECD Pac C&E Eur FSU W Eur OECD NA US-EPA (2006) 1000 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Summary on likely trends in emissions Increasing population will drive increased demand for food, which will increase agricultural emissions from 5.6 to 8.2 b tonnes of CO 2 equivalent (+ 46%) by 2030 Big regional variation FAO projections for 2030 vs 1997-99 Global CH 4 emissions increase by 60% Global N 2 O emissions increase by 50%
Recap Ag contributes at least 10% of GHG emissions Variation due to parameters used to asses contribution Deforestation is a major contributory factor Ag the prominent source of CH 4 and N 2 O
EU
Source: EU DG:ARD Statistical and Economic Information 2011
The Contribution of Global Agriculture to Greenhouse Gas Emissions Source: EU DG:ARD Statistical and Economic Information 2011
Evolution of GHG Emissions Livestock
million tonnes million tonnes Emissions vs output 1990 to 2005 Meat and egg production Bovine Meat Whole milk production 150.0 100.0 50.0 0.0 Eggs Mutton & Goat Pigmeat Poultry Meat 350.0 300.0 250.0 200.0 150.0 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 Agric GHG emissions +17% Beef +13% Milk +39% Mutton/goat +31% Pigmeat +44% Poultry meat +102% Eggs +61% Source: FAOSTAT
million head Global livestock populations 1400 1200 1351 1090 1000 822 800 600 400 200 0 175 Cattle Buffaloes Sheep Goats FAOSTAT
million t CO 2 eq Enteric methane emissions by region 500 460 400 300 280 259 218 200 100 175 160 136 97 88 28 27.3 0 Latin America Africa China India Rest of Asia Western Europe North America Non EU FSU Aust/NZ Eastern Europe Middle East Source: EPA (2006) data reworked by O Mara (2011)
million t CO 2 eq CH 4 and N 2 O emissions from manure management by region 100 95 91 80 60 40 20 0 Western Europe 65 59 40 28 23 20 19 4 2.3 China North America Rest of Asia Non EU FSU Latin America India Africa Eastern Europe Aust/NZ Middle East Source: EPA (2006) data reworked by O Mara (2011)
percentage Regional share of global milk and ruminant meat energy production and methane GHG emissions (enteric and manure) 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 meat + milk energy Enteric methane 5.0 0.0 Africa Latin America North America Non EU FSU Eastern Europe Western Europe India China Aust/NZ Asia Middle East O Mara (2011)
FOOD CHAIN GHG EMISSIONS
FAO (2010)
Lively (2012)
Vermeulen et al. (2012) 1534
FAO (2010)
FAO (2010)
Summary on GHG emissions compared to food output Big regional variation in GHG emissions per unit of food produced 4 most efficient regions produce 46% of worlds milk and ruminant meat, but only contribute 25.5% of enteric methane emissions Does not account for non-food products Hides/wool Draught Social goods such as capital store
Mitigation Potential
Economic Mitigation Potential Carbon price (US$/tCO 2 -eq) Economic Potential 2030 (GtCO 2 -eq/yr) Agriculture 20 1.6 (0.3-2.4) 50 2.7 (1.5-3.9) 100 4.4 (2.3-6.4) Emissions 2030 8.2 Mitigation practices in Agriculture Cropland management; Restoration of organic soils; Restoration of degraded lands; Rice management; Grazing land management 90% of potential is carbon sequestration IPCC (2007)
FOOD WASTE
Global food losses and food waste (Save Food, 2011)
Summary Population increase Limited supply of arable land Need to utilise a greater portion of food produced and limit waste
Overall summary Agriculture encompasses a diverse range of activities globally GHG contribution from agriculture is significant Range of GHG sources Mitigation potential, but costly Focus on efficiency of nutrient and food utilisation Maximise use of scarce resources