The UK Timber Resource and Future Supply Chain Ben Ditchburn Forest Research
Timber availability The landscape of timber availability in Great Britain and the United Kingdom is moving through a period of significant change Conifer biological availability is set to increase over the next 15 years to 18 million m3 obs by 2031, returning to levels similar to current domestic production of 12 million m3 obs by 2047 There are almost unnoticed forest resources in a hardwood annual increment of circa 6 million m3 obs Yet Britain is not fully utilising these resources and at face value it appears that the scale of wood product utilisation and processing capacity is not commensurate with potential wood supply How do we know this?
The National Forest Inventory Evidence base for the sector To inform and influence: Policy makers Politicians Decision makers within the sector Investors The public The scientific community
The National Forest Inventory Started in 2009 the NFI is a rolling programme of forest and woodland monitoring It replaces the previous series of one off snapshot inventories conducted by the FC every 10 years or so since 1924 The application of new technologies and approaches have enabled a much deeper and broader picture of woodlands to be drawn The rolling nature enables for accurate and up to date statistics as well as change monitoring
NFI design 1. Forest Map 2. 15,000 one Ha Survey Squares 3. Map + Squares brought together in the NFI DB 4. Survey Square details multiplied up to the NFI map area X GB Server 5. NFI Information Produced 1 4 3 2 Volume 5
Annually updated map the backbone of woodland gain and loss statistics
Forest Boundaries from Aerial Photography
Remote sensing updates to the map Woodland signature Clearfell with unique signature
RS clearfell Detection
RS clearfell Detection
Sample survey design Systematic random sampling Plus top ups
Field Sample Locations Fieldwork First Cycle 5 of 5 years complete 15000 sample squares Around 25,000 stands & 521,000 trees measured Second Cycle First year of 5 underway 1000 re measures taken
Survey at each square Forest type & landuse Gross / net area Habitat type & condition Silvicultural Systems Species Canopy structure Planting year Recent Treatment Management Practice Thinning history Access & ease of harvesting Boundary & cultural features Micro-Habitats & veteran trees Recreation & social factors Mensuration assessments: dbh height measurements crown widths and depths stocking species straightness (conifers) live / dead Natural Regeneration NVC & ground, field & shrub layer vegetation General health Dead wood Invasive Species
Fully digital data logging
Woodland Structure
Tree Heights
Vertical structure
Canopy Stratification
Sample plot with sample trees 5.64 m radius sample plot All trees above 4cm dbh mapped and measured
Seedling, sapling and dead wood transects within the sample plot
Tree in or out of plot
Tree location
Tree Diameter
GPS trace of NFI surveyor
09/05/2016 Individual tree measures
09/05/2016 Derived data / Growing stock
2 09/05/2016 Extrapolation of data
NFI Regions North Scotland North East Scotland West Scotland East Scotland South Scotland North East England North West England Yorkshire & the Humber East Midlands Wales West Midlands East England South West England South East England & London
Conifer species distributions in stocked area FC Private sector Total Principal species area area area SE% (000 ha) (000 ha) (000 ha) England All conifers 127.5 191.2 2 318.7 Sitka spruce 47.8 33.3 7 81.1 Scots pine 16.6 48.0 5 64.6 Corsican pine 27.1 15.8 11 43.0 Norway spruce 6.9 22.2 8 29.1 Larches 10.1 34.1 5 44.2 Douglas fir 9.8 15.8 9 25.5 Lodgepole pine 4.5 3.6 16 8.1 Other conifers 4.8 18.5 9 23.3 Scotland All conifers 374.1 524.9 2 899.1 Sitka spruce 229.3 289.3 2 518.6 Scots pine 45.1 116.2 4 161.3 Corsican pine 1.6 1.4 41 3.0 Norway spruce 10.9 14.9 12 25.8 Larches 26.4 41.6 7 68.0 Douglas fir 5.4 5.2 19 10.6 Lodgepole pine 52.1 49.1 16 101.2 Other conifers 3.3 6.4 19 9.7 Wales All conifers 81.4 49.8 4 131.1 Sitka spruce 49.5 27.8 8 77.3 Scots pine 2.0 1.7 48 3.7 Corsican pine 1.9 0.8 41 2.7 Norway spruce 5.2 1.6 35 6.8 Larches 12.3 8.7 16 21.0 Douglas fir 5.0 4.5 23 9.5 Lodgepole pine 2.6 1.6 30 4.2 Other conifers 2.9 2.9 26 5.7 Great Britain All conifers 583.0 765.9 1 1,349.0 Sitka spruce 326.6 350.4 2 677.0 Scots pine 63.8 165.9 3 229.7 Corsican pine 30.6 18.0 10 48.7 Norway spruce 23.0 38.7 7 61.7 Larches 48.8 84.4 4 133.2 Douglas fir 20.1 25.5 8 45.6 Lodgepole pine 59.1 54.3 15 113.5 Other conifers 11.0 27.7 8 38.7
Standing volume in thousands of cubic metres overbark standing Standing Volume 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 Great Britain England Scotland Wales FC estate Private sector
Standing volume (thousands of cubic metres overbark standing) 0-20 years 21-40 years 41-60 years SV by age class by GB 61-80 years 81-100 years 100+ years GB 2012 Standing Coniferous by age class 100,000 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Age class FC estate Private sector
Standing volume (thousands of cubic metres overbark 0-20 years 21-40 years 41-60 years 61-80 years 81-100 years 100+ years SV by age class by country 0-20 years 21-40 years 41-60 years 61-80 years 81-100 years 100+ years 0-20 years 21-40 years 41-60 years 61-80 years 81-100 years 100+ years GB 2011 Standing Coniferous by age class 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 England Scotland Age class FC estate Private sector Wales
Standing volume (thousands of cubic metres overbark 0-7 cm 7-10 cm 10-15 cm 15-20 cm 20-30 cm 30-40 cm 40-60 cm 60-80 cm 80+ cm SV by dbh class by country 0-7 cm 7-10 cm 10-15 cm 15-20 cm 20-30 cm 30-40 cm 40-60 cm 60-80 cm 80+ cm 0-7 cm 7-10 cm 10-15 cm 15-20 cm 20-30 cm 30-40 cm 40-60 cm 60-80 cm 80+ cm GB 2012 Standing Coniferous by dbh class 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 England Scotland Dbh class FC estate Private sector Wales
Volume (thinning & felling) (thousands of cubic metres overbark standing) 2012-16 2017-21 2022-26 2027-31 2032-36 2012-16 2017-21 2022-26 25-yr Softwood Availability 2027-31 2032-36 2012-16 2017-21 2022-26 2027-31 2032-36 2012-16 2017-21 2022-26 2027-31 2032-36 2012-16 2017-21 2022-26 2027-31 2032-36 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Great Britain England Scotland Wales Northern Ireland Period FC estate Private sector
Private sector conifer harvesting scenarios 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 Zero intervention No thinning No thinning for DAMS 16 and above & with 25 metre terminal height No thinning for DAMS 16 and above & with 21 metre terminal height Thinning based on observed practice Thin all 2006 Industry Harvesting prescriptions 4,000 2,000 0 2012-16 2017-21 2022-27 2027-31 2032-36
000s m 3 obs Conifer overdue timber 14,000 12,000 10,000 No thinning for DAMS 16 and above & with 25 metre terminal height No thinning for DAMS 16 and above & with 21 metre terminal height Thin all Thinning based on observed practice 8,000 No thinning 6,000 2006 Industry Harvesting prescriptions 4,000 2,000 DAMS 16-25 overdue 42 million m 3 obs DAMS 16-21 overdue 49 million m 3 obs Thin all overdue 39 million m 3 obs Thin based upon observed practice overdue 54 million m3 obs No thin overdue 52 million m 3 obs 2006 prescription overdue 66 million m 3 obs Zero intervention 0 2012-16 2017-21 2022-27 2027-31 2032-36 Forecast period
Avergae annual production per period (000s of cubic metres overbark standing) 2013-16 2017-21 2022-26 2027-31 2032-36 2037-41 2042-46 2047-51 2052-56 2057-61 2013-16 2017-21 2022-26 2027-31 2032-36 2037-41 2042-46 2047-51 2052-56 2057-61 50 yr. conifer forecast 2013-16 2017-21 2022-26 2027-31 2032-36 2037-41 2042-46 2047-51 2052-56 2057-61 2013-16 2017-21 2022-26 2027-31 2032-36 2037-41 2042-46 2047-51 2052-56 2057-61 50-year forecast of softwood production (thinning plus felling) 14,000 12,000 10,000 Great Britain FC Great Britain PS England FC England PS Scotland FC Scotland PS Wales FC Wales PS 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Great Britain England Scotland Wales
Avergae annual standing volume per period (000s of cubic metres overbark standing) 2013-16 2017-21 2022-26 2027-31 2032-36 2037-41 2042-46 2047-51 2052-56 2057-61 2013-16 2017-21 2022-26 2027-31 2032-36 2037-41 2042-46 2047-51 2052-56 2057-61 50 years of standing volume 2013-16 2017-21 2022-26 2027-31 2032-36 2037-41 2042-46 2047-51 2052-56 2057-61 2013-16 2017-21 2022-26 2027-31 2032-36 2037-41 2042-46 2047-51 2052-56 2057-61 50-year forecast of softwood standing volume 250,000 200,000 150,000 Great Britain FC Great Britain PS England FC England PS Scotland FC Scotland PS Wales FC Wales PS 100,000 50,000 0 Great Britain England Scotland Wales
Avergae annual net increment per period (000s of cubic metres overbark standing) 2013-16 2017-21 2022-26 2027-31 2032-36 2037-41 2042-46 2047-51 2052-56 2057-61 2013-16 2017-21 2022-26 2027-31 2032-36 2037-41 2042-46 2047-51 2052-56 2057-61 50 yr. increment forecast 2013-16 2017-21 2022-26 2027-31 2032-36 2037-41 2042-46 2047-51 2052-56 2057-61 2013-16 2017-21 2022-26 2027-31 2032-36 2037-41 2042-46 2047-51 2052-56 2057-61 50-year forecast of softwood net increment 14,000 12,000 10,000 Great Britain FC Great Britain PS England FC England PS Scotland FC Scotland PS Wales FC Wales PS 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Great Britain England Scotland Wales
volume in 000s of cubic metres overbark standing 2013-16 2017-21 2022-26 2027-31 2032-36 2037-41 2042-46 2047-51 2052-56 2057-61 2013-16 2017-21 2022-26 Comparing the three 2027-31 2032-36 2037-41 2042-46 2047-51 2052-56 2057-61 50-year summary of softwood standing volume, increment and production for GB (FC and PS) 250,000 250,000 Average annual standing volume per period 200,000 200,000 Total net increment per period 150,000 150,000 Total production per period 100,000 100,000 50,000 50,000 0 0 FC Estate Private sector
41 5/9/2016 Causes Why does this uneven profile of availability occur? History or creating a new plantation resource
Area (ha) 42 1920 1922 1924 1926 1928 1930 1932 1934 1936 1938 1940 1942 1944 1946 1948 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 5/9/2016 45,000 Area of new planting GB 1920-2015 (FC & non-fc, grant aided & non-grant aided) 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 GB 15,000 10,000 5,000 0
volume (millions m3 obs) 2012-2016 2017-2021 2022-2026 2027-2031 2032-2036 2037-2041 2042-2046 2047-2051 Private sector scenarios - basic 2052-2056 2057-2061 2062-2066 2067-2071 2072-2076 2077-2081 2082-2086 2087-2091 2092-2096 2097-2101 2102-2106 2107-2111 Great Britain - PS 100 year forecast of average annual production (all conifers) under differing harvesting assumptions with like-for-like restocking 14.0 12.0 10.0 BPDAMS16-25 8.0 BPDAMS16-21 BPThinAll BPThinPast 6.0 BPThinNone Strat Reg 4.0 2.0 0.0
44 5/9/2016 Consequences What scale should the conifer sector scale itself to; 12 million or 13, 14 or more? How long will the uncut timber stand around, will it continue to grow and accrue value or will it depreciate and blow over or succumb to disease? Mitigations?
Average annual thin plus fell volume (000 m 3 obs) 45 11/12/2015 Timber production forecast 24,000 22,000 20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Forecast period
Average annual thin plus fell volume (000 m 3 obs) 46 11/12/2015 30 years of mitigation 24,000 22,000 20,000 Phase 1 Delay felling 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Phase 2 Plant 15000 ha per annum Plant 10000 ha per annum Plant 6000 ha per annum Forecast period
47 11/12/2015 Impact of 30 years planting GB Landuse Current % landuse share 2015 Share under 6,000 ha % Share by 2045 Share under 10,000 ha Share under 15,000 ha Rural & open 78.5 77.7 77.2 76.6 Urban 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 Woodland 13.3 14.1 14.6 15.3
Broadleaved species distributions in stocked area FC Private sector Total Principal species area area area SE% (000 ha) (000 ha) (000 ha) England All broadleaves 50.0 835.8 1 885.8 Oak 15.5 163.0 3 178.5 Beech 12.7 68.0 5 80.7 Sycamore 1.1 80.8 5 81.8 Ash 2.7 107.7 4 110.4 Birch 4.5 93.7 4 98.1 Sweet chestnut 0.8 27.0 9 27.8 Hazel 0.3 68.8 5 69.1 Hawthorn 0.0 49.4 6 49.4 Alder 0.5 29.2 8 29.7 Willow 0.0 33.0 8 33.0 Other broadleaves 12.0 115.2 4 127.2 Scotland All broadleaves 27.3 237.5 2 264.9 Oak 2.5 24.1 11 26.6 Beech 0.6 13.7 13 14.3 Sycamore 0.3 17.6 15 17.9 Ash 0.4 13.1 12 13.5 Birch 9.2 108.5 4 117.8 Sweet chestnut 0.0 0.0 0 0.0 Hazel 0.2 5.7 20 6.0 Hawthorn 0.0 6.0 21 6.0 Alder 0.6 13.7 13 14.2 Willow 0.0 8.6 11 8.6 Other broadleaves 13.5 26.0 8 39.5 Wales All broadleaves 13.6 112.6 3 126.2 Oak 2.4 22.5 10 24.9 Beech 1.7 6.1 20 7.8 Sycamore 0.1 9.9 16 9.9 Ash 0.4 17.2 11 17.6 Birch 1.1 10.3 13 11.4 Sweet chestnut 0.0 0.4 77 0.5 Hazel 0.0 12.8 13 12.8 Hawthorn 0.0 5.4 20 5.4 Alder 0.1 9.0 15 9.1 Willow 0.0 8.9 17 8.9 Other broadleaves 7.8 10.4 13 18.2 Great Britain All broadleaves 91.0 1,185.9 1 1,276.9 Oak 20.4 209.6 3 230.0 Beech 14.9 87.8 5 102.7 Sycamore 1.5 108.2 4 109.6 Ash 3.5 138.1 3 141.6 Birch 14.8 212.5 3 227.3 Sweet chestnut 0.8 27.4 9 28.2 Hazel 0.6 87.3 5 87.9 Hawthorn 0.0 60.8 6 60.8 Alder 1.1 51.9 6 53.1 Willow 0.0 50.5 6 50.5 Other broadleaves 33.3 151.6 3 184.9
Millions of m 3 overbark standing Standing Volume by Age Class 70 60 50 40 30 FC Private Sector 20 10 0 0-10 11-20 21-40 41-60 61-80 81-100 100+ Age class (years)
Millions of m 3 overbark standing 0-7 7-10 Blvd. Standing Volume by Size 10-15 15-20 20-30 30-40 40-60 60-80 80+ 70 Great Britain FC Great Britain PS 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 mean stand dbh class (cm)
Avergae annual production per period (000s of cubic metres overbark standing) 2013-2016 2017-2021 2022-2026 2027-2031 Scenarios for hardwoods 2032-2036 2037-2041 2042-2046 2047-2051 2052-2056 2057-2061 The impact of different harvesting scenarios upon 50-year timber potential for the Private sector (GB). 12,000 10,000 Thin and fell only where evidence of thinning practice (BLV2) 8,000 Thin and fell all stands (BLV3) 6,000 4,000 2,000 Thin and fell all stands. Management regimes that maximise yield (BLV4) 0
volume in 000s of cubic metres overbark standing 2013-16 2017-21 2022-26 2027-31 2032-36 2037-41 2042-46 2047-51 2052-56 2057-61 2013-16 2017-21 2022-26 2027-31 2032-36 2037-41 2042-46 2047-51 2052-56 2057-61 SV/I/T&F) 50-year summary of broadleaf standing volume, increment and production for GB (FC/NRW and PS) 450,000 450,000 Standing volume at start of forecast period 400,000 350,000 400,000 350,000 Total net increment per period 300,000 250,000 300,000 250,000 Total production per period 200,000 200,000 150,000 150,000 100,000 100,000 50,000 50,000 0 0 FC/NRW Estate Private sector
carbon (000 tonnes) Conifers Broadleaves Conifers Broadleaves Conifers Broadleaves Carbon Stocks Conifers Broadleaves 120,000 Total carbon stocks (000 tonnes) in living trees in woodlands in Great Britain at 31 March 2011 Great Britain FC 100,000 Great Britain PS England FC 80,000 England PS Scotland FC 60,000 Scotland PS 40,000 Wales FC Wales PS 20,000 0 Great Britain England Scotland Wales
carbon (000 tonnes) Conifers B'leaves Conifers B'leaves Conifers B'leaves Conifers B'leaves Conifers B'leaves Conifers B'leaves Carbon Stocks Conifers B'leaves Conifers B'leaves Total carbon stocks (000 tonnes) in living trees in woodlands in England at 31 March 2011 25,000 FC PS 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 North West Englan d North East Englan d Yorks and Humber East Midlands East England South East England South West England West Midlands
Conclusions Removals are below increment in GB and UK, especially for broadleaves This disparity will grow, as our relatively young trees mature Uneven availability over short, medium and long terms We already have a significant stock of trees over due for felling, this will only be added to Large volume of increment without commensurate processing capacity Mitigations; delayed felling, new planting and additional processing?
More Information Questions? For information on the NFI: http://www.forestry.gov.uk/forestry/infd-89pju5 Or Google National Forest Inventory Contact: National.Forest.Inventory@forestry.gsi.gov.uk
The UK Timber Resource and Future Supply Chain Ben Ditchburn Forest Research