International Process Integration Jubilee Conference Gothenburg, Sweden, March 18 20, 2013 The Future Role of Energy Efficiency for Sustainable Development Thomas B. Johansson Professor em., International Institute for Industrial Environmental Economics, Lund University, Sweden Co-Chair, Global Energy Assessment, IIASA, Austria
Challenges requiring actions on Energy a. Energy services for growing populations, 7 to 9 billion by 2050; and economies, 2%/a per capita b. Universal access to modern forms of energy (the ~3 billion w/o access) c. affordable energy services (@$100/bbl??) d. secure supplies, from households to nations; peak oil e. health and environment challenges (WHO guidelines ++) f. planetary boundaries, incl. climate change mitigation (<+2 deg above pre.ind.) g. Peace h. ancillary risks (large accidents, nuclear weapons proliferation, too high food prices,...) => Major Energy System and Policy Changes Needed!
These challenges must be addressed adequately timely simultaneously
Global Energy Assessment Towards a Sustainable Future Initiated to explore the role of energy and energy options addressing local, regional, and global sustainability, The work involved >300 Authors from five continents, Peer-review by >200 Anonymous Reviewers coordinated by Review Editors Final report (Cambridge University Press), 1880 pages, just published (September 2012). Free download from IIASA. 4
500 World Primary Energy Renewable 400 Microchip Nuclear Primary Energy (EJ) 300 200 100 Steam engine Electric motor Gasoline engine Commercial aviation Television Vacuum tube Nuclear energy Gas Oil Coal 0 Biomass 1850 1900 1950 2000 Source: Nakicenovic et al., 1998
The challenges translate into a need for a major energy systems transformation Main elements: Energy end-use efficiency Renewable energies Carbon Capture and Storage (for CC only)
celková energie [kwh/m 2 a] 250 200 150 100 50 0 Stávající zástavba - 90% Pasivní dům Passive Buildings Energy use for space conditioning reduced by 90+ % through application of better insulation, windows, doors etc., as well as heat recovery and solar gains. Applicable to both new construction and renovation. Source: Jan Barta, Center for Passive Buildings, www.pasivnidomy.cz
Example of savings by reconstruction Before reconstruction Reconstruction according to the passive house principle over 150 kwh/(m²a) -90% 15 kwh/(m²a) Source: Jan Barta, Center for Passive Buildings, www.pasivnidomy.cz, EEBW2006
final energy use: global heating and cooling Floor Area Thermal Comfort Final Energy Floor Area, 1E9 m^2 400 350 Energy, PWh/year 18,0 16,0 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 +126 % 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 Adv New New Adv Ret Retrofit Standard 2045 2050 14,0 12,0 10,0 8,0 6,0 4,0 2,0 0,0 2005 Adv New New Adv Ret Retrofit Standard 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040-43 % 2045 2050 Source: GEA Chapter 10
Source: David Sanborn Scott, 2004 11
Transportation Source: GEA Chapters 9, 12, and 17
Bangladesh The importance of combining new technology with effective implementation, here the Grameen Bank
Energy could come from deserts
Global New Investmens in Renewables Source: GSR, REN21, 2012
Figur från Tomas Kåberger
Nuclear PWR Investment Costs US overnight excl. interest, France partly incl. interests mean/best guess and min/max of costs 10000 US average France best guess 2008$/kW 5000 4000 3000 2000 1980 1983 1995 1996 1000 1 10 100 1971 1977 cum GW installed 1980 1985 1975 US: Koomey&Hultman, 2007, France: Grubler, 2009 Source: GEA Chapter 24
Co-gasification of coal and biomass for the Co-production of power, fuels, and chemicals with CCS leading to negative carbon emissions ATMOSPHERE biomass upstream emissions photosynthesis Fuel transport/distribution fuel vehicle tailpipe flue gases electricity to grid grid electricity displaced coal upstream emissions biomass Conversion coal CO 2 storage char Source: GEA Chapter 12
Objectives and goals for the GEA energy back-casting scenario for 2050 Support economic growth at recent historic rates Almost universal access to electricity and cleaner cooking, by 2030 Reduce air pollution impacts on health, adhering to WHO guidelines Avoid dangerous climate change, stay below + 2 o C above preindustrial global mean temperature Improve energy security through enhanced diversity and resilience of energy supply And in the process, address peak oil and nuclear weapons proliferation challenges
Branching points in GEA backcasting analysis Source: GEA Chapter 17
EJ 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 Steam engine Geothermal Solar Wind Hydro Nuclear Gas wccs Gas woccs Oil Coal wccs Coal woccs Biomass wccs Biomass woccs Electric motor Vacuum Gasoline tube engine Commercial aviation Television Nuclear energy GEA Efficiency Microchip Advanced transportation Conventional transportation 0 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 EJ 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 Steam engine Geothermal Solar Wind Hydro Nuclear Gas wccs Gas woccs Oil Coal wccs Coal woccs Biomass wccs Biomass woccs Electric motor Vacuum Gasoline tube engine Commercial aviation Television Nuclear energy Microchip GEA Mix The three major combinations: - Efficiency EJ 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 Steam engine Geothermal Solar Wind Hydro Nuclear Gas wccs Gas woccs Oil Coal wccs Coal woccs Biomass wccs Biomass woccs Electric motor Vacuum Gasoline tube engine Commercial aviation Television Nuclear energy Microchip GEA Supply 0 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 Unrestricted Portfolio No Nuclear No BioCCS No Sinks Limited Bio-energy Limited Renewables No CCS No Nuclear & CCS Lim. Bio-energy & Renewables No BioCCS, Sink & lim Bio-energy Unrestricted Portfolio No Nuclear No BioCCS No Sinks Limited Bio-energy Limited Renewables No CCS No Nuclear & CCS Lim. Bio-energy & Renewables No BioCCS, Sink & lim Bio-energy - Mix -Supply and variations of constraints on supply options Source: GEA Chapter 17
EJ 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 GEA-Supply Pathway Geothermal Solar Wind Hydro Nuclear Gas wccs Gas woccs Oil Coal wccs Coal woccs Biomass wccs Biomass woccs Renewables Nuclear Gas Oil Coal 0 Biomass 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 Source: GEA Chapter 17
Matching policies to investment needs Source: Chapter 22
Public Sector Energy RD&D in IEA Member countries by major technology group Million US$2008 PPP 20000 15000 10000 5000 Other Efficiency Renewables Fossil Fuels Fusion Nuclear w/o fusion 0 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 100% future technology needs share in 2000-2100 cum. emission reduction past and current R&D into developing improved technologies, shares by technology Distribution of past and current energy R&D as compared to future technology needs from the pathways analysis 80% 60% 40% 20% Nuclear Renewables Fossil Fuels Other Energy Efficiency Source: GEA Chapter 24 0% Min Mean Max In future mitigation scenarios (technology needs portfolio) 1974-2008 2008 public energy R&D (past, current R&D portfolio) MIN Mean Max 1974-2008 2008
Simultaneous economic development, poverty alleviation, and reduced greenhouse gas emissions The concept multiple benefits Value all benefits (jobs, growth, security, health, local environment, reduced climate impacts,...) To characterize costs of a project in terms of per tc avoided is misleading. Efficient use of energy, esp. at the point of end-use Renewable energies
not just energy technology Urban planning Transportation systems, personal and freight Material use Land use Consumption patterns..
GEA Key Findings: 1. Energy Systems can be Transformed to Support a Sustainable Future. 2. An Effective Transformation Requires Immediate Action. 3. Energy Efficiency is an Immediate and Effective Option. 4. Renewable Energies are Abundant, Widely Available, and Increasingly Cost-effective. 5. Major Changes in Fossil Energy Systems are Essential and Feasible. 6. Universal Access to Modern Energy Carriers and Cleaner Cooking by 2030 is Possible. 7. An Integrated Energy System Strategy is Essential. 8. Energy Options for a Sustainable Future bring Substantial, Multiple Benefits for Society. 9. Socio-Cultural Changes as well as Stable Rules and Regulations will be Required. 10. Policies, Regulations, and Stable Investment Regimes will be Essential.
WORLD ENERGY ASSESSENT MAIN FINDINGS www.globalenergyassessment.org