AT A GLANCE PARIS OFFICE MARKET JANUARY 21 TAKE-UP FELL BY 24 % IN 29 Office take-up in Ile-de-France dropped by 24% over one year to 1,811, m². This was largely due to the sharp decline in net absorption (-1, m² over 29). The biggest deals of 29 reflected large occupiers intentions to optimise and streamline the space used as well as the running building operating. Such was the case for Crédit Agricole, which regrouped several sites in La Défense and Paris into 71,1 m² of the Evergreen scheme in Montrouge. The quest for savings was clearly the main motivation for those relocating in 29. Although net absorption stalled, moves were also limited by lease renegotiations. Apart from article L 145-39 of the Commercial Code, which allows for rents to be reviewed if they have risen by more than 25% since they were first set, some landlords preferred to anticipate and renegotiate rents with tenants rather than risk their premises lying empty, a growing issue since the end of 27. Immediate supply climbed by 32% in a year, driven by the growing momentum of releases and substantial completions of buildings started in 27. Adjustment in the production of new buildings has helped to moderate the increase in supply within a year, which rose by 14% over this period. The major slump in the occupier market has prompted caution among investors and developers. At the end of 29, 825, m² of offices were under construction compared to 1,265, m² at the end of 28. Against this backdrop of imbalance between supply and demand, rents have fallen. The average rent in Paris CBD dropped by 9% over one year. Apart from the headline rents, many incentives have been granted, averaging about 11% at the heart of the Paris market. While 29 was the year the economy landed, 21 will be the year of stabilisation. Economic growth may reach around 1.5%, not enough to kick-start employment. Net absorption should therefore be flat. Moves will remain limited by a still fragile economic environment and renegotiations of leases. The volume of office take-up in Ile-de-France should therefore remain relatively stable in 21. Supply within a year, which stopped its climb over the fourth quarter of 29 and stands at 4.7 million m², should resume its upward trend. This should be chiefly driven by the second hand supply released by large occupiers such as GDF-Suez or Crédit Agricole. Government measures stemming from the Grenelle de l Environnement* are becoming increasingly demanding and the obsolescence of available supply is becoming a genuine issue for consideration. Supply within a year currently includes about 55, m² of new HQE (high environmental quality) certified supply, i.e. just 38% of the new supply within a year. However, thanks to collective awareness raising and regulatory obligations, the HQE initiative is developing and spreading. At the moment, 52% of volumes under construction and 66% of planning permission applications granted satisfy HQE criteria. However, there is a solution for second hand buildings, which is the HQE Exploitation. This label officially acknowledges good environmental operating performances in buildings. Coeur Défense and the Terra Nova 3 building in Montreuil are two of the eight buildings that have been HQE Exploitation certified so far. *a series of meetings in October 27 in which representatives of national and local government and organizations discussed environmental issues. I1I
OFFICE MARKET IN ILE-DE-FRANCE Office cycle * Supply within a year > 1, m 2 5, - 1, m 2 5-2, m 2 < 5 m 2 2, - 5, m 2 5, 4,79 3, 4, 3, 2, 1,811 1, 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 *take-up over 12 months BNP Paribas Real Estate - Research - January 21 2,5 annual average: -9: 2,2, m 2-24% 2, 1,5-33% -39% 1, -19% -15% 5-15% 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 BNP Paribas Real Estate - Research - January 21 Supply within a year (4 th quarter) Future supply - 31/12/29 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 CBD Paris Outside CBD La Défense Western Crescent Péri- Northern Défense River Bend Neuilly- Southern Levallois River Bend New North Second hand Inner Rim South East BNP Paribas Real Estate - Research - January 21 Under construction Planning permissions obtained 8 9 8 9 8 9 8 9 8 9 8 9 8 9 8 9 8 9 8 9 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, 8 6 4 2 1,337 825 BNP Paribas Real Estate - Research - January 21 I2I
KEY FIGURES 28 29 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 Variation H2 Variation Paris CBD 164,8 131,2 19,3 16,1-34% 22% Paris outside CBD 13,1 177,5 144,6 152,1 11% -14% La Défense 145,1 18, 115,3 58,8-21% -46% Northern River Bend 34,7 74,5 67,7 3,9 95% -59% Péri Défense 131,6 127,8 64,8 37,4-51% -71% Neuilly/Levallois 5,2 52,1 27,3 35,6-46% -32% Southern River Bend 82,5 91,2 56,7 43,4-31% -52% Northern Inner Rim 78,4 71,8 35,3 44,2-55% -38% Eastern Inner Rim 47,2 132,8 64,2 19,1 36% -86% Southern Inner Rim 72,2 52,3 46,4 12,3-36% 13% Outer Rim 245,2 19,9 158,8 218,6-35% 15% Total 1,182, 1,21,1 89,4 92,5-25% -24% Source: Immostat-IPD BNP PARIBAS REAL ESTATE - Research - January 21 Immediate supply* 28 29 Vacancy rate* Immediate supply* Vacancy rate* Immediate supply variation Paris CBD 271,5 4,1% 296, 426, 6,5% 269,4 57% -9% Paris outside CBD 344,9 3,6% 37,6 539, 5,6% 296,7 56% -4% La Défense 116,7 3,7% 253,1 146, 4,6% 174,1 25% -31% Northern River Bend 174,7 12,5% 19,2 233, 16,6% 98,6 33% -1% Péri Défense 175,2 9,5% 259,4 33, 16,4% 12,2 73% -61% Neuilly/Levallois 77,4 5,6% 12,3 111, 8,1% 62,9 43% -39% Southern River Bend 137,4 6,2% 173,7 195, 8,8% 1,1 42% -42% Northern Inner Rim 152,3 7,6% 15,2 222, 11,1% 79,5 46% -47% Eastern Inner Rim 59,6 4,4% 18, 12, 7,5% 83,3 71% -54% Southern Inner Rim 27,6 11,9% 124,5 223, 12,8% 166,7 7% 34% Outer Rim 1,27,3 5,7% 436,1 1,126, 6,3% 377,4 1% -13% Total 2,744,6 5,6% 2,392,1 3,626, 7,4% 1,81,9 32% -24% *end of period Source: Immostat-IPD, BNP Paribas Real Estate BNP PARIBAS REAL ESTATE - Research - January 21 I3I
KEY FIGURES 28 Supply within a year 29 Variation 28-29 28 Under construction 29 Variation 28-29 Paris CBD 447,5 638,2 43% 85,1 13, 53% Paris outside CBD 53,6 78,5 47% 188,4 14, -26% La Défense 191,1 277,3 45% 1,6 89,8-11% Northern River Bend 269,7 246,9-8% 117,7 9,8-92% Péri Défense 397,3 417,6 5% 124,3 39,5-68% Neuilly/Levallois 154, 147,2-4% 35,1 48,4 38% Southern River Bend 278,1 288,4 4% 154,2 149,8-3% Northern Inner Rim 258,8 251,5-3% 89,4 34,2-62% Eastern Inner Rim 129,1 157,5 22% 82,2 24,6-7% Southern Inner Rim 26,7 242,6-7% 7,6 29,8-58% Outer Rim 1,24,2 1,261,8 5% 217,1 129,6-4% Total 4,121,1 4,79,5 14% 1,264,7 825,5-35% Source: BNP Paribas Real Estate BNP PARIBAS REAL ESTATE - Research - January 21 I4I
IMMOSTAT AREA Source : Immostat I5I
GLOSSARY The numerical data used by BNP Paribas Real Estate for its statistics feature all the information at the group s disposal when compiling them. These statistics may change according to new information brought to our knowledge that is often confidential to begin with. Definitions from A to Z Building: New: Building built within the last 5 years. Major Refurbishment: Building which has undergone structural alteration less than five years ago, subject to planning permission. Recent: Building less than 1 years old. Renovated: Building which has undergone renovation work not requiring for planning permission less than five years ago. Modern: high-performance building over 1 years old. Old: low-performance building over 1 years old. CCI (Cost of Construction Index): index that makes quarterly measurements of construction prices for new house building. It is the price after VAT paid by the owner to construction companies. It excludes land-related prices and costs (site development, special foundations, etc.), fees and financial costs. Demand: a search for premises expressed to BNP Paribas Real Estate. The analysis pertains only to the flow of new demand expressed. For the occupier: operation undertaken by an occupier for its own purposes New supply: Any new building and/or heavily refurbished building that adds to the existing stock. These are analysed according to progress. Completed new supply: buildings on which construction work is finished. Under construction: buildings on which construction has effectively begun. Prior demolition work is not taken into account. Planning permission granted: authorisation to build obtained, generally booked after settlement of third party claims. Planning permission submitted : planning permission requested, being processed. Projects: identified intention of a building operation for which no request has been filed. HQE: voluntary initiative for high-quality environmental management of construction or refurbishment of buildings. This is an initiative by real estate and construction professionals and is subject to a certification procedure drawn up by AFNOR (Association Française de Normalisation). Immediate supply: all vacant premises and buildings, available immediately for letting and occupation. Immostat: an Economic Interest Group founded in 21, through an association between BNP Paribas Real Estate, CB Richard Ellis, DTZ Jean-Thouard, and Jones Lang LaSalle. In the interests of consistency, the brokers adopted numerous joint definitions: market districts in Ile-de-France, conditions of buildings and premises, definitions of surface areas to be taken into account, rents, etc. The structure of the EIG guarantees the independence of data processing and respect for the confidentiality commitments of each of its members. New or major-refurbished offices: New: premises in a new building that have never been occupied. Major Refurbishment: premises in a refurbished building that have never been occupied. Office stock: includes all completed offices, vacant or occupied. The office stock includes offices of the public and private sectors. In Ile-de-France, it is regularly updated by the Observatoire Régional de l Immobilier d Entreprise d Ile-de-France (ORIE) and the Direction Régionale de l Equipement d Ile-de- France [Regional Facilities Department for Ile-de-France] (DREIF) from the official statistics on new construction, the annual taxation on offices, as well as the data relative to demolition. Owner-occupier development: construction of a building for an occupier who has signed a bill of sale on a property still to be built. Pre-letting: Transaction signed by an occupier more than 6 months before the delivery of the building Rent: Headline rent: annual rent per square metre, featured on the lease, and expressed excluding taxes and charges. Does not include attached premises such as parking areas, archives, staff canteens, etc. If the rental is progressive, the value applied is the average for the first three years or the fixed term of the lease. Average headline rent: Weighted average of rented area. The average featured is a moving average over three quarters, to smooth out the changes. Underlying rent: Annual rent per square metre expressed free of tax and charges and excluding advantages agreed by the owner (rent incentives, building works, etc.). Prime rent: represents the top headline rent (excluding non significant transactions) for an office unit: - of standard size - of the highest quality and specification - in the best location in each market. Top rent: represents the top headline rent for an office unit. It is not necessarily a prime rent. Second hand premises: Premises that have been previously occupied by an occupier for vacant for more than five years. Renovated: premises that have been renovated for the new occupier. Very good condition: high-performance premises of high quality. Existing state of repair: low-performance premises that can be rented as they are. To be renovated: low-performance premises that need renovation. Speculative / Non-speculative operation: Speculative: construction launched without prior rental or sale to the occupier. Non-speculative: construction launched after partial or complete sale or rental to an occupier Supply available within one year: all premises and buildings available within one year, including the supply available immediately, new supply that has not been pre-let and second-hand supply that will be vacated definitively (notably terminated leases). : rental or sale of a property asset, finalised by the signature of a lease or a bill of sale, including turnkey transactions and owner-occupier. The transaction is only taken into account once any existing conditional clauses have been lifted. Turnkey rental: construction of a building for an occupier who has signed a lease on a property still to be built. Vacancy rate: ratio measuring the relationship between the supply immediately available and the existing stock. BNP Paribas Real Estate Disclaimer clause BNP Paribas Real Estate cannot be held responsible if, despite its best efforts, the information contained in the present report turns out to be inaccurate or incomplete. This report is released by BNP Paribas Real Estate and the information in it is dedicated to the exclusive use of its clients. The report and the information contained in it may not be copied or reproduced without prior permission from BNP Paribas Real Estate. Should you no longer wish to receive this report, or wish to modify the conditions of reception of this report, please send an e-mail to: unsubscribe.mailing@bnpparibas.com I6I
ONE REAL ESTATE COMPANY THAT'S INTERNATIONAL AND LOCAL. Canada and USA India Japan Canary Islands Cyprus CONTACTS RESEARCH BUSINESS LINES 9239 Levallois Cedex Tél. : +33 ()1 47 59 2 PROPERTY DEVELOPMENT Louis Baudouin DECAIX Tel.: +33 ()1 55 65 24 34 louisbaudouin.decaix@bnpparibas.com Richard MALLE Head of Research richard.malle@bnpparibas.com Assia TAIBI Research Analyst - Offices in IDF assia.taibi@bnpparibas.com CONSULTING Antoine BARY Tel.: +33 ()1 47 59 22 24 antoine.bary@bnpparibas.com Sylvain HASSE Tel.: +33 ()1 47 59 22 24 sylvain.hasse@bnpparibas.com VALUATION Jean-Claude DUBOIS Tel.: +33 ()1 47 59 17 8 jean-claude.dubois@bnpparibas.com PROPERTY MANAGEMENT Jean-Claude TANGUY Tel.: +33 ()1 55 65 29 49 jean-claude.tanguy@bnpparibas.com INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT Etienne DUPUY Tel.: +33 ()1 55 65 28 38 etienne.dupuy@bnpparibas.com Non contractual document - Research department - January 21 BNP PARIBAS REAL ESTATE : Headquarters : 13, boulevard du Fort de Vaux - 7517 Paris - 692 12 18 RCS Paris - Simplified joint-stock company with capital of 256 796 68 Our locations Our alliances TRANSACTION ILE-DE-FRANCE OFFICES Grégoire de LA FERTÉ Head of Île-de-France Retail and Offices Business Line Tel.: +33 ()1 47 59 2 55 gregoire.delaferte@bnpparibas.com François CHAUVEY Head of Northern and Eastern Suburbs Letting and Sales Immeuble Les Mercuriales 4 Rue Jean Jaures - Bagnolet Tel.: +33 ()1 49 93 7 33 francois.chauvey@bnpparibas.com Eric BERAY Head of Offices in Paris and Western Suburbs Letting over 5, m² Tel.: +33 ()1 47 59 21 5 eric.beray@bnpparibas.com Loïc-Raphaël CUVELIER Head of Offices in Western Suburbs Letting under 5, m2 Tel. : +33 ()1 47 59 21 1 loic-raphael.cuvelier@bnpparibas.com Jean-René BARD Head of offices in Paris and Western Suburbs Sales Tel.: +33 ()1 47 59 17 42 jean-rene.bard@bnpparibas.com Jean-Laurent de la PRADE Head of Offices in Paris Letting under 5, m² Tel.: +33 ()1 47 59 17.18 jean-laurent.delaprade@bnpparibas.com Jacqueline FAISANT Tel.: +33 ()1 55 65 26 94 jacqueline.faisant@bnpparibas.com TRANSACTION Max LE ROUX Tel.: +33 ()1 47 59 25 83 max.leroux@bnpparibas.com Thierry LAROUE PONT Tel.: +33 ()1 47 59 25 83 thierry.larouepont@bnpparibas.com I7I