SCI/VERKEHR COLOGNE 2008 THE WORLD MARKET FOR ELECTRIC LOCOMOTIVES Rolling Stock, Procurements, Manufacturers, Market Development
THE WORLD MARKET FOR ELECTRIC LOCOMOTIVES Rolling Stock, Procurements, Manufacturers, Market Development SCI Verkehr GmbH is an independent consultancy company which specialises in the technology and economics of transport. We have close connections to the rail industry, with consultants in a wide range of specialist fields. We have an extensive network of experts in Germany and abroad, and we specialise in market and strategy aspects for the mobility sector. As well as the company s headquarters in Hamburg we also have branches in Cologne and Berlin. SCI Verkehr provides its clients with management consultancy, based on specialist technical knowledge for practical implementation. Our activities focus on companies in the transport and railway industry, logistics, public and private transport companies, and transport and economics departments in public administration at federal, regional and community level. Based on these and further current developments in rail transport, this study, entitled The World Market for Electric Locomotives delivers a well-founded analysis and sound estimate of the market for electric locomotives. The study provides a consistent continuation of the study "The Worldwide Market for Electric Locomotives" which was published in 2006. With this, SCI Verkehr provides market and business information of competitive relevance on current volumes in the worldwide market for new vehicles and after-sales business. In addition, the study presents and evaluates key information about companies, technology and economics. It delivers in-depth and unique key information about this vehicle segment. The study provides important information for operational and strategic planning of players in the transport and railway industry. In concrete terms, this market study of electric locomotives contains: A regionally differentiated look at the worldwide market for electric locomotives including an intensified analysis of all known markets of the individual countries A comprehensive analysis of the current fleet stocks concerning operational purposes, quantities and age structures as well as future procurement potentials Analysis of the current market shares of all manufacturers and customers of electric locomotives as well as a forecast of the future vehicle requirements An overview of electric locomotive manufacturers including a brief description of their current range of products and services as well as contact details An overview of the most important drivers behind the procurement and refurbishment of electric locomotives in the individual regions A condensed presentation of the most important fleet-specific features of electric locomotives in the form of diagrams A list of operators vehicle stocks and the current electric locomotive procurements in the annex to the study This Multi Client Study is based on numerous information sources, which are continuously analysed and validated and are recorded in a database system. The study is available in German and English language at the price of EUR 2,800 + delivery costs and VAT per copy. Your contact person at SCI Verkehr: Christian Beßler Head of Marketing and Sales Tel. +49-221-93178-20 Fax +49-221-93178-78 E-Mail: c.bessler@sci.de www.sci.de The World Market for Electric Locomotives 3
PREFACE 1 Executive Summary: The World Market for Electric Locomotives... 16 2 Market Delimitation and Methodology of the Study... 22 2.1 Objective of the Market Analysis... 22 2.2 Delimitation of the Railway Technology Market... 23 2.3 Market Analysis Methodology... 30 3 Manufacturers of Electric Locomotives... 35 3.1 Global Players... 35 3.2 National and international Players... 38 4 The Market for Electric Locomotives in Western Europe... 53 4.1 Germany... 57 4.2 France... 59 4.3 Austria... 60 4.4 Italy... 61 4.5 Switzerland... 62 5 The Market for Electric Locomotives in Eastern Europe... 64 5.1 Poland... 69 5.2 Czech Republic... 70 5.3 Romania... 71 6 The Market for Electric Locomotives in Asia... 72 6.1 China... 76 6.2 India... 77 7 The Market for Electric Locomotives in North America... 79 8 The Market for Electric Locomotives in South America... 84 9 The Market for Electric Locomotives in the CIS... 89 6.1 Russia... 93 6.2 Ukraine... 95 10 The Market for Electric Locomotives in Africa/the Middle East... 97 11 The Market for Electric Locomotives in Australia/the Pacific Region... 102 Annex Annex A: Fleet Overview by Region and Country Markets... 107 Annex B: Contact Addresses of Manufacturers... 129 Annex C: Electric Locomotive-Stocks of the Railway Companies... 135 www.sci.de The World Market for Electric Locomotives 4
The Market for Electric Locomotives in Australia/the Pacific Region Vehicle installed base/age structure in Australia/the Pacific Region Only two operators have an electric locomotive fleet. 90% of the installed base in Australia is operated by Queensland Rail, the remaining locomotives in New Zealand by Toll NZ. The locomotives are exclusively operated in freight transport. Installed Base 2008 / Australia/the Pacific Region [Number of Electric Locomotives] Australia New Zealand - 50 100 150 200 Figure 1: Installed base overview electric locomotives in Australia/the Pacific region 2008 (by country) The majority of the currently operated electric locomotives was procured in the 1980s. After only small quantities were put into operation in the 1990s and the beginning of the 2000s, an increasing procurement volume can be observed for the last few years. Due to the low average age of around 19 years, the procurements should mainly increase transport capacities. Age Structure 2008 / Australia/the Pacific Region [Number of Electric Locomotives] 200 150 100 50 0 No info Before 1950 1950-1959 1960-1969 1970-1979 1980-1989 1990-1999 2000-2008 Figure 2: Age structure electric locomotives in Australia/the Pacific region 2008 www.sci.de The World Market for Electric Locomotives 5
The Market for Electric Locomotives in Africa/the Middle East Manufacturers/products/market shares in Africa/the Middle East In the last five years only two procurement projects have been carried out. 85% of the supplied vehicles were delivered by MARS (Mitsui & Company African Rail Solution) to South Africa. Market Shares 2004-2008 / Africa/the Middle East [Number of Electric Locomotives] 15% MARS-Consortium CSR Zhuzhou Figure 3: Market shares electric locomotives in Africa/the Middle East in the period 2004 2008 85% Total: ~50 electric locomotives Market volume and market development The current market volume for new electric locomotives in Africa/the Middle East is around EUR 150 million per year; for after-sales services, around EUR 70 million. This market development is influenced by the following drivers: Driver Brief description Importance Trend Transport demand Infrastructure Operational requirements Profitability Fleet structure The increase of the mining volume in the coal mining region, especially in the leading market of South Africa, will lead to an increased demand for traction. Primarily electric locomotives are procured for electrified lines. In the coming years network sections are increasingly going to be electrified in the region. Mainly in freight transport between the mines and the ports, there are further new development and upgrade projects underway. These investments will increase procurement volumes for electric locomotives. In order to increase transport capacity on existing lines, locomotives with higher drive power and higher availability are going to be ordered. As a result of the increasing oil price and the increasing requirements on the economic efficiency in rail transport, more electric locomotives are going to be procured for line operations to make use of their favourable energy efficiency. Existing fleet is relatively young and is partly being refurbished. SCI Verkehr is not expecting replacement procurements in the next five years. www.sci.de The World Market for Electric Locomotives 6
Annex Eastern Europe - Overview Installed Base / Country Installed Base / Country [Number of E-locos] Poland Czech Republic Romania Hungary Slovakia Bulgaria Serbia and Montenegro Slovenia Croatia Turkey Other countries 0 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 Delivery 2004-2008 / Country Delivery / Country [Number of E-locos] Greece Slovenia Poland Hungary Czech Republic Slovakia Croatia 0 10 20 30 Installed Base / Operator Installed Base / Operator [Number of E-locos] Delivery 2004-2008 / Market Shares Delivery / Market Shares [Number of E-locos] PKP CD 11% Siemens CFR Bombardier MAV ZSSK 31% 58% Skoda Others In total: ~ 90 E-locos 0 600 1 200 1 800 Installed Base / Power installed Installed Base / Power installed [Number of E-locos] 2 400 Delivery 2004-2008 / Power installed Delivery / Power installed [Number of E-locos] 100 1 800 75 1 200 50 600 25 0 no info < 3,000 kw 3,000-3,999 kw 4,000-4,999 kw 5,000-7,999 kw > 8,000 kw 0 no info < 3,000 kw 3,000-3,999 kw 4,000-4,999 kw 5,000-7,999 kw > 8,000 kw www.sci.de The World Market for Electric Locomotives 7
Annex Region Country Operator Number of Identification Main supplier Delivery Delivery Gauge Top-speed Power Power Supply locomotives from to [mm] [km/h] [kw] Eastern Europe Herzegovina Hercegovine 2 1141 Gredelj 1967 1967 120 3860 25 kv 50 Hz AC Eastern Europe Herzegovina Hercegovine 4 441-0 SGP / ASEA 1967 1967 1435 120 3860 25 kv 50 Hz AC Eastern Europe Herzegovina Hercegovine 3 441-3 unknown 1967 1967 1435 120 3860 25 kv 50 Hz AC Eastern Europe Herzegovina Hercegovine 4 441-4 unknown 1967 1967 1435 120 3860 25 kv 50 Hz AC Eastern Europe Herzegovina Hercegovine 1 441-5 unknown 1967 1967 1435 120 3860 25 kv 50 Hz AC Bosnia- Eastern Europe Herzegovina Zeljeznice Republice Srpske 2 1141-0 Gredelj 1967 1967 120 3860 25 kv 50 Hz AC Bosnia- Eastern Europe Herzegovina Zeljeznice Republice Srpske 7 441-0 SGP / ASEA 1967 1967 1435 120 3860 25 kv 50 Hz AC Bosnia- Eastern Europe Herzegovina Zeljeznice Republice Srpske 2 441-3 unknown 1967 1967 1435 120 3860 25 kv 50 Hz AC Bosnia- Eastern Europe Herzegovina Zeljeznice Republice Srpske 19 441-9 SGP / ASEA 1967 1967 1435 120 3860 25 kv 50 Hz AC Eastern Europe Herzegovina Hercegovine 6 441-0 SGP / ASEA 1967 1967 120 3860 25 kv 50 Hz AC Eastern Europe Herzegovina Hercegovine 6 441-9 SGP / ASEA 1967 1967 1435 120 3860 25 kv 50 Hz AC Bulgarski Durzhavni Zheleznitsi Eastern Europe Bulgaria EAD "Holding" 6 46.2 Electroputere 1999 1999 1435 160 5100 25 kv 50 Hz AC Bulgarski Durzhavni Zheleznitsi Eastern Europe Bulgaria EAD "Holding" 20 61 Skoda 1994 1994 1435 80 960 25 kv 50 Hz AC Eastern Europe Bulgaria Bulmarket DM Ltd. 6 86 / EA 3000 Siemens 1992 1993 1435 175 4000 25 kv 50 Hz AC Bulgarski Durzhavni Zheleznitsi Eastern Europe Bulgaria EAD "Holding" 45 46.0 Electroputere 1986 1986 1435 130 5100 25 kv 50 Hz AC Bulgarski Durzhavni Zheleznitsi Eastern Europe Bulgaria EAD "Holding" 3 46.1 Electroputerre 1986 1986 1435 160 5100 25 kv 50 Hz AC www.sci.de The World Market for Electric Locomotives 8
Order form MC Electric Locomotives Please fax to: + 49 (221) 931 78-78 SCI Verkehr GmbH Cologne Office FAO Mr. Christian Bessler I would like to order the Multi Client Study The World Market for Electric Locomotives Quantity Issue Language Single price* Total price* First copy German 2,800 + additional copies** German 600 First copy English 2,800 + additional copies ** English 600 Group package*** x German x English 8,000 Total price* Company Contact person (Title, first name, surname) Position Address (Street, town, postcode) VAT Number (for customers in member states of the European Union) or other invoicing address or order number Tel Fax Email I would like to pay by credit card / please send me an invoice Please charge the total sum to my credit card. Card number / / / Valid until Visa Eurocard / Mastercard CVV number Date Signature / stamp * All prices exclude delivery costs and VAT ** Only in combination with a first copy in the same language *** Each group package includes max. 8 copies in German and English Orders subject to our general terms and conditions. Place of jurisdiction is Hamburg. Cologne Office Place of jurisdiction: Schanzenstraße 117 Vor den Siebenburgen 2 Country court Hamburg 20357 Hamburg / Germany 50676 Cologne Geschäfts-Nr. 66 HR B 56 572 Tel: +49 (0) 40 5071970 Germany Deutsche Bank Hamburg Fax: +49 (0) 40 50719720 Tel: +49 (0) 221 931 78-0 Bank code: 200 700 24 www.sci.de Fax: +49 (0) 221 931 78-78 Account number: 329 68 60
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