DIESEL LOCOMOTIVES GLOBAL MARKET TRENDS. Forecast, Installed Bases, Suppliers, Procurement Projects

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1 Fehler! Kein Text mit angegebener Formatvorlage im Dokument. SCI/VERKEHR COLOGNE 2015 DIESEL LOCOMOTIVES GLOBAL MARKET TRENDS Forecast, Installed Bases, Suppliers, Procurement Projects

2 DIESEL LOCOMOTIVES GLOBAL MARKET TRENDS Forecast, Installed Bases, Suppliers, Procurement Projects This study entitled Diesel Locomotives Global Market Trends provides a comprehensive overview into the structure, installed bases, procurements, manufacturers and development trends in the rail vehicle segment analysed. Based on current developments in rail transport, this study, entitled Diesel Locomotives Global Market Trends, delivers an analysis and sound estimate of the market for diesel locomotives. Based on the successful preceding study from 2013 and experience from more than projects in the field of railway technology, in the past few years SCI Verkehr has verified the central input data and optimised its forecasting methodology. We have reviewed and updated all chapters of the preceding study. In addition, SCI Verkehr has performed an improved product segmentation for valuation of installed bases and age structures. In concrete terms, this MultiClient market study on diesel locomotives includes: A regionally differentiated look at the worldwide market for diesel locomotives including an in-depth analysis of all relevant markets of the individual countries A comprehensive analysis of the current fleet stocks concerning operational purposes, quantities and age structures as well as future procurement potential An overview of the most important drivers behind the procurement and refurbishment of diesel locomotives in the individual regions An analysis of market shares of significant manufacturers as well as a forecast of the vehicle demand An overview of diesel locomotive manufacturers including a brief description of their current range of products and services A condensed presentation of the most important fleet-specific features of diesel locomotives in diagram form A list of operators vehicle fleets and the current diesel locomotive procurements in the annex to the study. Forecast of new procurement and after-sales volumes of diesel locomotives (in EUR) for each region by 2019, review of the development up to 2010 Brief description of important current and planned procurement projects All in all, the study provides a well-founded analysis of the worldwide market for diesel locomotives. The study therefore provides both companies established in the railway industry as well as active and potential operators with important information for operational and strategic planning. SCI Verkehr analyses markets from the bottom up: based upon systematic observation of the railway markets, a detailed worldwide database of the installed base and projects forms the basis for in-depth studies on the various segments of the railway industry and the most important regional focus markets. Within the scope of the continuous creation of the Multi Client Series, SCI Verkehr systematically analyses more than 100 core countries for railway technology. Freight Wagons Global Market Trends 2

3 The Multi Client Study Diesel Locomotives Global Market Trends is available in English from September SCI Verkehr is an independent consultancy company for the mobility sector with activities around the world. We specialise in strategic advice to the railway and logistics industry. We have established an international network of professional experts. Our activities focus on companies in the transport and rail industry and in the transport operation, logistics and financial sectors, as well as the transport and economics departments at national, regional and municipal levels. Your contact Ann Kathrin Arntz Tel: Freight Wagons Global Market Trends 3

4 DIESEL LOCOMOTIVES GLOBAL MARKET TREND CONTENT 1 Executive Summary: The World Market for Diesel Locomotives Market Overview Installed base/age structure Manufacturers/Products/Market Shares Market volume and market development Market Delimitation and Methodology of the Study Objective of the Market Analysis Delimitation of the Railway Technology Market Market Analysis Methodology The Market for Diesel Locomotives in Europe Germany France Poland Italy Romania Czech Republic United Kingdom Turkey The Market for Diesel Locomotives in Asia China India The Market for Diesel Locomotives in North America The Market for Diesel Locomotives in South/Central America The Market for Diesel Locomotives in the CIS Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan The Market for Diesel Locomotives in Africa/ Middle Iran South Africa The Market for Diesel Locomotives in Australia/Pacific Freight Wagons Global Market Trends 4

5 ANNEX Annex A: Manufacturers Annex B: Fleet structures Annex C: Stock of the Railway Companies Freight Wagons Global Market Trends 5

6 Market for after sales Market for new vehicles Installed base Extract from the study Extract from the Study: Market Overview South/Central America D-Locos Trend Units Average development (p.a.) 0.3 % Average age 2014 (in years) 31 Average volume (EUR million p.a.) 220 Average development (p.a.) 1.9 % Volatility market volume (SAW) 14.1 % Average volume (EUR million p.a.) 600 Average development (p.a.) 2.8 % Volatility market volume (SAW) 0.2 % Boom/strong growth small growth stagnation small decrease clear decline Figure 1: Market overview diesel locomotives in South/Central America In the last decade, the market for diesel locomotives grew constantly in the region of South/Central America, but the growth slightly decelerated in Especially the two leading markets of Brazil and Argentina had high procurement figures in recent years. In other markets, new diesel locomotives were only procured in smaller amounts. Market environment/transport market Infrastructure: The network density in South and Central America only amounts to to km per square km and is therefore quite low compared to other market regions assessed. Development of rail transport services South/Central America 2007 until 2014 [Index 2007 = 100] = 22 billion pkm 100 = 565 billion tkm pkm passenger rail tkm freight rail Figure 2: Rail transport performance and development South/Central America in the period 2007 to 2014) Freight Wagons Global Market Trends 6

7 Rail passenger transport: Rail freight transport: Installed base/age structure Due to the low degree of electrification, electric locomotives can mainly be operated in heavy freight transport in South and Central America by industrial and mine railways. Diesel locomotives with a number of units clearly outweigh the less than 100 electric locomotives in this region. Installed base South/Central America by countries [Number of Units] Brazil Argentina Cuba Chile Peru Other countries Mainline Shunting Light Shunting Figure 3: Installed base overview diesel locomotives in South/Central America in 2014 by country (number of locomotives) The high proportion of freight transport in transport services by rail is also reflected in the distribution of the field of operation of diesel locomotives. More than 95% are operated in freight transport. More than 45% of all diesel locomotives have a power of more than kw. Railway companies therefore mainly operate diesel locomotives in freight transport. Freight Wagons Global Market Trends 7

8 Fleet segments [~5 200 diesel locomotives] South/Central America Application of mainline fleet [~4 100 diesel locomotives] South/Central America 21% 4% 79% Mainline Shunting Light Shunting 96% Freight transport Passenger transport Passenger and freight transport Figure 4: Segments of the diesel locomotive fleet/detail operational fields mainline locomotives (number of locomotives) The diesel locomotive fleet in South and Central America has an average age of around 31 years. Age structure of installed base [Number of Units] South/Central America A Altersstruktur HGV-Züge Osteuropa No info Before Mainline Shunting Light Shunting Figure 5: Age structure of installed base South- and Central America (Number of Units) Manufacturers/Products/Market Shares The North American manufacturers GE and EMD were the most important manufacturers in the South American market in the last five years and delivered a high number of heavy mainline locomotives. Freight Wagons Global Market Trends 8

9 Market shares of manufacturers 2010 to 2014 South/Central America 6 % 5 % 2 % GE Marktanteile Hersteller HGV-Züge Osteuropa 2004 EMD 17 % CSR CNR Other manufacturers 70 % in total: ~ 420 diesel locomotives Figure 6: Market shares diesel locomotives South/Central America in the period (number of locomotives) Market volume and market development The current market volume for new diesel locomotives is around EUR XXX million p.a.; for after-sales services it is around EUR XXX million p.a. This market development is influenced by the following drivers: Drivers of procurements Brief description Relevance Trend short term medium term Infrastructure Transport demand Investment funds A generally weak economic situation in the region limits investments. Brazil tries to attract private investment in railways with new concessions. Fleet Structure Important current and planned procurement projects In recent years, primarily operators in the two most important rail markets of Brazil and Argentina ordered new diesel locomotives. Freight Wagons Global Market Trends 9

10 Country Type Units Argentina CKD8G/ CDD8H Power [kw] Delivery Argentina n/a 20 n/a Remarks In 2013, the first of 20 locomotives supplied by CNR's Dalian subsidiary entered service in Argentina. In January 2015, CNR Beijing announced the signing of a contract of 20 diesel-electric locomotives for Argentina. The locomotives will be used for the Belgrano railway renovation project.. Freight Wagons Global Market Trends 10

11 Annex A: Example Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd. (BHEL) Overview Company headquarters: Website: Management: Employees ( ): Turnover ( ): Profits ( ) New Delhi (India) B Prasada Rao (Chairman & Managing Director) EUR 5.1 billion (INR 411 billion) EUR 438 million net profit (INR 35 billion) BHEL was founded 50 years ago and has become the largest energy and infrastructure company in India. BHEL manufactures more than 180 products which are divided into eight business segments within the company: Power, Industry, Oil & Gas, Defence, Water, Transmission, Transportation and Renewable. BHEL s electric locomotives and the diesel-electric & diesel hydraulic shunting locomotives are mainly manufactured for the Indian market. However, electric locomotives have also been delivered to customers in Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Tanzania, Vietnam and Malaysia. BHEL s world market shares in locomotive production are relatively low but the company orients itself towards foreign business. In October 2008, GE Transportation and BHEL signed an agreement for the production diesel locomotives for Indian Railways (IR). The company currently has only production capacities of around 100 locomotives. In January 2012, Indian Railways (IR) invited international bids to set up two locomotive factories at Marhaura and Madhepura in Bihar state. IR hopes to complete the projects as PPP. A joint venture between General Electric and Bharat Heavy Electricals is competing with Electro-Motive Diesel to produce diesel locomotives at Marhaura. IR estimates that it will require 800 electric and 1,000 diesel locomotives from the factories. These contracts could be worth EUR 10 billion (USD 13 billion). In February 2013, Indian Railways (IR) have joined hands with state-owned BHEL for setting up a modern Mainline Electric Multiple Unit (MEMU) coach factory in Rajasthan to cater to the growing demand for faster local and suburban trains. The MEMU trains equipped with higher acceleration capacity are expected to move faster on electrified tracks and would benefit daily commuters. A MoU was signed between railways and BHEL here for setting up a EUR million (INR 10 billion) state-of-the-art MEMU coach factory in Bhilwara, Rajasthan, with a capacity of 300 cars p.a. IR estimates that the 15,000 route-km of electrification it plans for the next 10 years will create a requirement for a further 9,000 EMU cars. However, production is limited by capacity constraints at the Rail Coach Factory in Kapurthala which currently produces the trains, designated Main Line Electric Multiple Units by IR. Production sites (segment) Jhansi (India) Important products Diesel-electric & Diesel hydraulic locomotives (India) Market shares ( ) 14% (Worldwide) 53% (Asia) together with DLW and San Market positioning / main contracts In cooperation with and as supplier of the electric drive components for Alco and DLW, BHEL has manufactured various diesel locomotive types for the Indian market and for operation with industrial and port railways. The vehicles can be designed for broad gauge, metre gauge and narrow gauge. Their power is between 260kW and 1 910kW. Freight Wagons Global Market Trends 11

12 Annex B: Example Germany Installed Base / Operator Installed Base / Operator [Number of Units] Delivery / Operator Delivery / Operator [Number of Units] DB AG Thyssen Krupp RheinCargo MEG RBH VPS Other Operators DB AG VPS BASF RheinCargo Chemion Other Operator Mainline Shunting Mainline Shunting Installed Base / Age distribution Installed Base / Age distribution [Number of Units] Delivery / Market Shares Delivery / Market Shares [Number of Units] 3 % 4 % 5 % Voith Vossloh % EMD % ALSTOM Bombardier 500 Other Manufacturers 0 No info Before % In total: ~ 330 D-Locos Mainline Shunting Installed Base / Power installed Installed Base / Power installed [Number of Units] Delivery / Power installed Delivery / Power installed [Number of Units] 9% <1% 13 % <1 % under 1 MW under 1 MW 23% 1 to < 2 MW 2 to < 3 MW 1 to < 2 MW 2 to < 3 MW 3 to < 5MW 3 to < 5MW over 5 MW 29 % 58 % over 5 MW 68% In total: ~ D-Locos In total: ~ 330 D-Locos Freight Wagons Global Market Trends 12

13 Annex C: Example Region Country Operator Type Units Delivery Main supplier Algeria SNTF V MaK (Kiel) Jung Algeria SNTF 060 DD (GT26W) General Motors Algeria SNTF 060 DF (GT26W) General Motors Algeria SNTF 060 DG (GT26W) General Motors Algeria SNTF 060 DH (GT22W) General Motors Algeria SNTF 060 WDK (GL18M) General Motors Algeria SNTF 040 YDA (GL18M) General Motors Algeria SNTF 060 DJ (U18C) General Electric Algeria SNTF 060 DL (GT26W) General Motors Algeria Algeria SNTF SNTF 060 DM (GT26W HCW-2A) 060 YDD (GL18 2C/2M) General Motors General Motors Algeria SNTF 040 DH (GL18B) General Motors Algeria SNTF 040 DH (GL18B) General Motors Algeria SNTF 060 DP (GT26HCW-2) General Motors Algeria SNTF n.a Ferrovial (local) Algeria SNTF VTL Donelli Algeria SNTF GT36HCW EMD Algeria SNTF GT36CW EMD Algeria SNTF 040 D* General Motors Freight Wagons Global Market Trends 13

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