Activity level oil and gas in the Stavanger Region Towards 2020 November 6 th 2015 Sola This document is the property of Rystad Energy. The document must not be reproduced or distributed in any forms, in parts or full without permission from Rystad Energy. The information contained in this document is based on Rystad Energy s global oil & gas database UCUBE, public information from company presentations, industry reports, and other, general research by Rystad Energy. The document is not intended to be used on a stand-alone basis but in combination with other material or in discussions. The document is subject to revisions. Rystad Energy is not responsible for actions taken based on information in this document.
Stavanger Area Norway Macro & global Oil & gas has been important, is important and will be important for Stavanger for a long time Oil prices likely to increase from 2017 Global spending with significant reduction 2015 & 2016, but increasing again from 2017/2018 NCS spending reductions are less than globally, but growth also slower when market turning By far largest oil region in Norway and serves all segments Eased reductions in activity due to Johan Sverdrup and other new fields under development with base Stavanger Potential in exploration and discoveries, but need lower cost and higher oil price Source: Rystad Energy research and analysis 2 Stavanger to stay attractive in a period of restructuring oil services and E&P P&A & Decom with opportunities, but more in the UK Potential to increase international activity
Traffic increase at Sola airport seems highly correlated to Norway s E&P spending Yearly total spending Norway Oil Industry & Sola passenger traffic 1981-2015 Spending NCS Billion NOK 350 300 250 200 SVG Pax Spending NCS real Average CAGR 2002-2014: NCS Spending: 7.6% Passenger traffic: 5.2% Passenger Million 5,0 4,0 3,0 150 100 50 2,0 1,0-1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 - Source: Rystad Energy UCube. Avinor passenger numbers domestic and international including estimate 2015 based on 5% reduction domestic and 3% reduction international compared to 2014. 3
Stavanger area dominates the Norwegian oil & gas industry E&P in particular Distribution of oil and oil services employees in Norway As per November 2014** Distribution of Norwegian E&P revenue per area 2014 revenue* Other Stavanger Area 60474 Oslo/Akershus/ Østfold Bergen Area Vestfold/Buskerud/ Telemark Nordvestlandet Haugesund/Stord Area Sørlandet Trøndelag Nord-Norge 25114 23437 18348 15198 11433 9952 7717 3748 Stavanger Area 98 % 39% Distribution of Norwegian oil service revenue per area 2014 revenue* Stavanger Area 27 % Hedmark/Oppland 903 E&P employees Oil service employees Nordvestlandet 10 % Oslo/Akershus /Østfold 21 % * Including international revenue, *Stavanger Area defined as Bjerkreim, Egersund, Forsand, Gjesdal, Hå, Klepp, Kvitsøy, Randaberg, Sandnes, Sauda, Sokndal, Sola, Stavanger, Strand, Suldal, Time. Source: Rystad Energy research and analysis 4
Production from fields with base in Stavanger to double in five years Production with supply base in Stavanger Thousand boe/d History Forecast Johan Sverdrup Phase 2 Sleipner Johan Sverdrup Phase 1 Ekofisk Frigg Source: Rystad Energy UCube 5
Stavanger oil service revenue at 2012 levels towards 2020, less downturn than Norway Could Stavanger do more? Stavanger area oil service revenue from Norwegian customers Billion NOK 200 180 History Forecast Forecast 2015 2016 2017+ Global -17% -13% 8% Norway -15% -10% 6% 160 Stavanger Area -13-8 6% 140 120 100 CAGR: 12% -13% -8% CAGR: 6% 80 60 40 20-2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Source: Rystad Energy research and analysis 6
10 % 15 % 27 % 73 % 64 % 64 % 59 % 57 % 55 % Stavanger has small share of international revenue potential to increase Oil service company revenue by Norway/international % of cumulative revenue 2005 to 2013 100 % 4 % 80 % 36 % 36 % 41 % 43 % 45 % 60 % 76 % 40 % 96 % 90 % 85 % 20 % 24 % 0 % Norway International Source: Rystad Energy research and analysis. 7
Contacts Rystad Energy Rystad Energy is an independent oil and gas consulting services and business intelligence data firm offering global databases, strategy advisory and research products for E&P and oil service companies, investors, investment banks and governments. We are headquartered in Oslo, Norway, with additional research teams in Asia. Further presence has been established in Norway (Stavanger), the UK (London), USA (New York & Houston), Russia (Moscow), Africa, Brazil (Rio de Janeiro) as well as South East Asia. Headquarters Rystad Energy Fjordalleen 16 0250 Oslo, Norway +47 24 00 42 00 info@rystadenergy.com Julia Weiss VP Marketing Email julia.weiss@rystadenergy.com Stavanger Office Løkkeveien 109 4007 Stavanger Norway Tore Guldbrandsøy SVP & Head of Stavanger Office Email tore.guldbrandsoy@rystadenergy.com 8