INNOVATIVE TRANSPORT SERVICES FOR HIGH QUALITY MOBILITY IN SUSTAINABLE CITIES Acknowledgments Luis Martínez MIT Portugal SCUSSE Project (Smart Combination of passenger transport modes and services in Urban areas for maximum System Sustainability and Efficiency) 2 nd MIT Portugal Annual Conference Moving Energy: Cities of Change September 27-29, 29, O Porto
Urban Mobility: The Beauty and the Beast Mobility is a central element of quality of life and a VITAL citizens right as it provides access to other rights But also an aggravating factor of many societal problems, by the way it is being exercised with such strong dominance of the automobile Harsh environmental and climatic changes Serious loss of efficiency caused by congestion Factor of asymmetry and social exclusion (by locating many public facilities based almost entirely on car access) Accidents (especially with pedestrians and bicycles) Strong dependence on fossil fuels (and indirect threat to peace) Profound changes on urban mobility solutions are needed INNOVATIVE TRANSPORT SERVICES FOR HIGH QUALITY MOBILITY IN SUSTAINABLE CITIES 2
Technological Innovation in vehicles Refinements on Internal Combustion Engines (ICE), leading to shortterm reductions in consumption of at least 30% Contribution of 2nd generation bio-fuels from to reduce GHG emissions, but still some doubts about production scale Pure Electric Vehicles based on batteries Vehicle range and Cost are major weaknesses slow market penetration, typically more than 10 years until a new technology is one of the "main players Hybrid Vehicles (Electrical - ICE) Interesting fuel savings in urban use Battery refill also possible on the network (plug-in) Covering the gap until Evs are mature INNOVATIVE TRANSPORT SERVICES FOR HIGH QUALITY MOBILITY IN SUSTAINABLE CITIES 3
What is needed beyond Technology Rational prices Prices reflecting customer value, scarcity and external impacts (and addressing equity issues through positive discrimination for disadvantaged citizens) (Transport) Regulation that encourages innovation Instead of blocking it Consistent policies Covering several areas: Transportation, Land use, Taxation, Research, Development and Innovation Innovative Services using existing and emerging technologies INNOVATIVE TRANSPORT SERVICES FOR HIGH QUALITY MOBILITY IN SUSTAINABLE CITIES 4
In search of the double "second-best" Just making moral appeals for a greater use of public transport is not effective PT peak periods capacity -> too many vehicles idle in non-peak periods There are many situations / locations where such change would have major penalties (efficiency losses) to transport customers Imagination is needed to design and implement new forms of transport That may be a double "second-best (near-optimal) For the citizen, almost as good as their "selfish choice For society, almost as good as if all we use the most efficient ways Thus, much greater acceptability and probability of voluntary adoption by citizens and businesses INNOVATIVE TRANSPORT SERVICES FOR HIGH QUALITY MOBILITY IN SUSTAINABLE CITIES 5
SCUSSE Framework Systems that rely on current technology and ITS solutions, using more complex and dynamic demand responsive solutions, and less supply intensive INNOVATIVE TRANSPORT SERVICES FOR HIGH QUALITY MOBILITY IN SUSTAINABLE CITIES 6
New Modeling Solutions Synthetic daily trips database An application of the mobility surveys data (with geo-referenced information) using fuzzy logic inference processes, which allow a continuous representation of trips in space and in time Focus group and Stated Preferences survey to estimate potential demand and configuration of the systems New transport services optimization and simulation models Shared taxi Simulation model of system (Agent-based model with a dispatcher optimization procedure) Mini-bus Optimization procedure to design to system configuration and optimal routes Carsharing Optimal design of one-way carsharing stations location INNOVATIVE TRANSPORT SERVICES FOR HIGH QUALITY MOBILITY IN SUSTAINABLE CITIES 7
Shared taxi Simulation Model The shared taxi concept Configuration All rides requested by phone (origin and destination) All payments by electronic means (check-in / check-out) Vehicles used as shared taxis should have easy entry and exit Possible price rule 2 pax on board, each pays 60%, operator gets 120% 3 pax on board, each pays 45%, operator gets 135% Expected Outcomes Higher load factors in taxis can provide Lower prices for each pax Higher revenues for operators Modal shift (mainly from private cars), less congestion Induced demand Win-win-win (operators, passengers and society) situation INNOVATIVE TRANSPORT SERVICES FOR HIGH QUALITY MOBILITY IN SUSTAINABLE CITIES 8
Shared taxi Simulation Model The simulation conceptual model INNOVATIVE TRANSPORT SERVICES FOR HIGH QUALITY MOBILITY IN SUSTAINABLE CITIES 9
Shared taxi Simulation Model Taxi selection procedure Maximum de-route time (Mdt) Maximum de-route distance (Mdd) P T Expected travel time (Ett) Expected travel distance (Etd) Pax. waiting time for this taxi (Twt) Taxi travel time (Ttt) Taxi travel distance (Ttd) Passenger requesting a taxi Candidate taxis INNOVATIVE TRANSPORT SERVICES FOR HIGH QUALITY MOBILITY IN SUSTAINABLE CITIES 10
Shared taxi Simulation Model Taxi selection procedure Taxi P 2 Passengers on-board: 1 2 2 Taxi P 1 P 1 Passenger on-board: 1 Taxi P 1 P No passengers on-board: P P Origin of passenger being considered Destination of passenger being considered P INNOVATIVE TRANSPORT SERVICES FOR HIGH QUALITY MOBILITY IN SUSTAINABLE CITIES 11
Shared taxi Simulation Model The Lisbon Case Study The taxi market in Lisbon is formed by approximately 3,000 taxis, which have to apply and pay a municipal license The taxi fleet is assumed to be fully equipped with GPS, digital message communication and electronic payment (all of these are currently available in large parts of the fleet) Taxi fares are formed by three different components: a fixed starting fee, a distance related fee and a time related fee, linked to the delay time produced by congestion (speed under 30 km/h) As demand to the system we used the current taxi demand of Lisbon municipality internal trips (estimated as 21,075 taxi trips during a day) INNOVATIVE TRANSPORT SERVICES FOR HIGH QUALITY MOBILITY IN SUSTAINABLE CITIES 12
Shared taxi Simulation Model The Lisbon Case Study Experiment: A full taxi fleet of regular taxis A mixed taxi fleet, with 500 shared taxis (25% of the total fleet) The fare paid by each traveler results from the sum of the different stretches of the trip with different occupancy rates of the taxi, which present different discounts Presences of Persons in Lisbon during a week day INNOVATIVE TRANSPORT SERVICES FOR HIGH QUALITY MOBILITY IN SUSTAINABLE CITIES 13
Shared taxi Simulation Model The Lisbon Case Study Example of a test in Lisbon INNOVATIVE TRANSPORT SERVICES FOR HIGH QUALITY MOBILITY IN SUSTAINABLE CITIES 14
Shared taxi Simulation Model The Lisbon Case Study Taxi occupancy rate (25% of shared taxis) about 60% of real demand 70,00% 60,00% 50,00% 40,00% 30,00% 20,00% 10,00% 0,00% 6-7 7-8 8-9 9-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18 18-19 19-20 20-21 21-22 22-23 23-0 0-1 1-2 2-3 3-4 4-5 5-6 1 passenger 2 passengers 3 passengers INNOVATIVE TRANSPORT SERVICES FOR HIGH QUALITY MOBILITY IN SUSTAINABLE CITIES 15
Shared taxi Simulation Model The Lisbon Case Study Evaluation (indicators) Average waiting time per traveler (reduced from 5 to 3 minutes) Average taxi revenue per working hour (approximately 40 ) Average taxi occupancy rate (1.14 passenger/vehic.) Average % of de-route time of travelers (2 minutes) Average % of de-route distance of travelers (920 meters) All these results were obtained with no modal shift Positive feed-back loop expected: as more people use shared taxi, average price comes down, reinforcing competitive position of this option Other factors must be weighed in Discomfort of travelling with stranger, role of driver to keep civic behavior INNOVATIVE TRANSPORT SERVICES FOR HIGH QUALITY MOBILITY IN SUSTAINABLE CITIES 16
Shared taxi Simulation Model The Lisbon Case Study Findings The concept of shared taxi can be operationalised for real time allocation of passengers to taxis A win-win-win (passengers-operators-society) situation can be achieved The business model seems very interesting and the simulation procedure can be very helpful for fine tuning of the parameters Current Lisbon taxi fleet is probably too large and suffers from low load factors. Shared taxi system should help improve business, mainly thanks to demand induced by the lower prices This system is still illegal under current legislation, this work is expected to produce results that would change that regulatory position INNOVATIVE TRANSPORT SERVICES FOR HIGH QUALITY MOBILITY IN SUSTAINABLE CITIES 17
Final Remarks Who will be using the new modes Mostly people who previously were driving their own cars As they find new options that offer similar levels of Availability / Flexibility Travel times Marginal Costs (full costs are certainly lower for those who find that in the end they don t need a car) And without the hassle of searching and the cost of a parking place But also some people who were previously travelling by Public Transport These are the fringe market segments who would anyway flee out of Public Transport as soon as a better, affordable option was available Real integration in Public Transport has to reach across not only the classical modes but also to these new, higher quality services Recognizing that mode choice may vary from one day to the next, depending on our agenda (modal alternation) INNOVATIVE TRANSPORT SERVICES FOR HIGH QUALITY MOBILITY IN SUSTAINABLE CITIES 18
Final Remarks Expected Impacts on the Mobility Reduction on congestion, energy consumption and CO 2 emissions Modal transfer from private car to new second best transport services Reduction in space consumption of the car fleet Less cars in the city centre, due to higher modal alternation Lower incentive to higher car ownership (2 nd and 3 rd cars) in the family All these new services require considerable legal changes on the transport sector regulation, which may only be achieved with considerable political support An urban mobility system that is efficient both for the citizens and for society must include a diverse range of solutions and an easy option for any of them for a particular trip, without penalty Citizens are members of the Mobility club INNOVATIVE TRANSPORT SERVICES FOR HIGH QUALITY MOBILITY IN SUSTAINABLE CITIES 19
INNOVATIVE TRANSPORT SERVICES FOR HIGH QUALITY MOBILITY IN SUSTAINABLE CITIES Acknowledgments Luis Martínez MIT Portugal SCUSSE Project (Smart Combination of passenger transport modes and services in Urban areas for maximum System Sustainability and Efficiency) 2 nd MIT Portugal Annual Conference Moving Energy: Cities of Change September 27-29, 29, OPorto