Social Mdia Analytics Data Mining Applid to Insuranc Twittr Posts Gary C. Wang, FCAS, MAAA April 4 th, 2013 Social Mdia Analytics Th growth in social mdia Data Gnral dscriptiv statistics Procssing th data Analysis idntifying th thms Analysis challngs Application of social mdia analytics 1 1
Th Growth in Social Mdia Social Mdia Dfind Social mdia: a group of Intrnt basd applications that build on th idological and tchnological foundations of Wb 2.0, and that allow th cration and xchang of usr gnratd contnt Building blocks Idntity Convrsations Sharing Prsnc Rlationships Rputation Groups Kaplan, Andras M.; Michal Hanlin (2010). "Usrs of th world, unit! Th challngs and opportunitis of Social Mdia". Businss Horizons 3 2
Social Mdia Platforms I nd to at I at This is whr I at I hav fiv connctions that rcommnd m bcaus I at so wll Why am I ating? This is a rviw of whr I at Lt s all at togthr Watch m at 4 Social Mdia Explosiv Growth 91% of all adults us social mdia rgularly YouTub usrs watch mor than 3 billion hours of vido pr month 93% of US adult intrnt usrs ar on Facbook Evry minut of th day: 100,000 twts ar snt 684,478 pics of contnt ar shard on Facbook 48 hours of vido ar uploadd to YouTub 47,000 apps ar downloadd 216 Social Mdia and Intrnt Statistics. thsocialskinny.com. Sptmbr, 2012. 5 3
Social Mdia is Impacting Businss Consumrs spnd an avrag of $391 million pr day onlin 70% of social ntworkrs shop onlin 79% of onlin shopprs spnd 50% of thir onlin shopping tim rsarching products 44% of businsss acquird customrs on Twittr Companis that blog hav 55% mor wbsit visitors 216 Social Mdia and Intrnt Statistics. thsocialskinny.com. Sptmbr, 2012. 6 Insuranc Facbook Fans Pag Fan Count (Fbruary, 2013) Prcnt Growth NI NPTA Flo, Th Progrssiv Girl 4,889,250 0.9 4.6 5.2 Farmrs Insuranc 2,337,697 0.3 0.5 0.9 Mayhm (Allstat) 1,521,093 0.9 22.4 10.4 Stat Farm Nation 1,464,196 0.3 0.3 0.9 AARP 1,013,237 0.2 25.7 Mtlif 554,562 0 18.1 6.4 USAA 504,213 22 2.2 11.2 86 8.6 Grbr Lif 457,629 13.6 0.7 10.9 Librty Mutual Insuranc 384,903 21.8 5.2 22.1 Nw York Lif 370,480 6.4 16.5 17.9 Sourc: Customr Rspct Group. Social Eys: Th Insurr s Viw of Social Mdia. 7 4
Insuranc Twittr Followrs Company Followrs (Fbruary, 2013) Prcnt Chang Twts Twts (3M Avrag) Nw York Lif 57,381 13.9 187 202 USAA 40,553 4.2 51 159 Allstat Insuranc 31,018 2.0 242 196 Stat Farm Insuranc 30,820 2.7 509 403 UHC 30,016 0.4 15 39 Stat Farm Nation 28,541 0.5 46 39 VPI 21,273 2.3 158 168 Progrssiv Its Flo 19,273 1.4 30 31 AFLAC Duck 18,327 3.0 46 121 Nationwid Insuranc 16,856 2.2 96 106 Sourc: Customr Rspct Group. Social Eys: Th Insurr s Viw of Social Mdia. 8 Ar You Taking Advantag of Social Mdia? Insuranc companis ar invsting significant rsourcs in a social mdia prsnc Currnt and potntial customrs ar voluntarily sharing intimat dtails of thir lif with th world Currnt and potntial customrs ar intracting with companis on a vry prsonal lvl This information can b applid in diffrnt ways (srvic, markting, comptitiv monitoring) 9 5
Data Data Kyword sarchs for Stat Farm, Allstat, Gico, suranc, and #Progrssiv 2.1 million twts January 25, 2012 Fbruary 6, 2013 Trackd through hootsuit.com Data txt: contnt of th twt to usr id: spcific twt rcpint from usr: sndr of th twt iso_languag_cod: languag of twt sourc: whr did th twt originat? ii profil imag: pictur of usr go: latitud and longitud of th usr Dat and tim 11 6
Sourcs of Social Mdia Data Third party data aggrgators (hootsuit, GNIP) API Company dvloprs Scrn scraping 12 Gnral Dscriptiv Statistics 7
Twts pr Month All Companis 300,000 Twts pr Month 250,000000 N u m b 200,000 r o f T w t s 150,000 100,000 50,000-1/2012 2/2012 3/2012 4/2012 5/2012 6/2012 7/2012 8/2012 9/2012 10/2012 11/2012 12/2012 1/2013 2/2013 Month 14 Twts pr Day in Sptmbr All Companis 16,000 Twts pr Day Sptmbr 2012 N u m b r o f 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 Avrag Twts pr day for Sptmbr: 6,226 Numbr of Twts on Sptmbr 25: 14,458 T w t s 2,000 Dat 15 8
Twts pr Day by Company Sptmbr, 2012 16,000 Twts pr Day by Company Sptmbr 2012 N u m b r 14,000 12,000 10,000 o f 8,000 T w t s 6,000 4,000 2,000 Dat total allstat gico statfarm suranc 16 Sptmbr 25, 2012 NFL Rplacmnt Rfrs If only Aaron Rodgrs had Allstat instad of Stat Farm. H'd b protctd from mayhm lik this. #MondayNightFootball #Robbry BREAKING NFL NEWS: th Packrs will switch to Allstat so thy will b protctd from "mayhm" (lik tonight) #NFL 17 9
Distribution of Twts by Company Twts by Company Dcmbr 2012 suranc, 0.8% stat farm, 41.5% allstat, 30.1% gico, 27.5% allstat gico stat farm suranc Prcntag of Twts by Company P r c T w n t a t g s o f 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% 1/2012 2/2012 3/2012 4/2012 5/2012 6/2012 7/2012 8/2012 9/2012 10/2012 11/2012 12/2012 1/2013 Month/Yar allstat gico stat farm 18 Data Procssing Stps 10
Data Procssing Stps Rmov punctuation and symbols (rtain @ and #) Pars th twt (35 words workd for Twittr will nd many mor for othr sourcs) Chang tabl structurs from twts in rows to twts in columns kp indicator of ordr Corrct splling rrors Add word indicators Twt Usr Twt Word1 Word2 Word35 ID 1 @mosly Txt of W1 W2 W35 twt Twt ID Word Ordr Word 1 1 Word1 1 2 Word2 1 35 Word35 20 Stat Farm Top 10 Kywords Stat Farm Kywords commrcial statfarm thr nighbor good lik jak rt farm stat 7.3% 18.3% 21.3% 23.0% 25.5% 26.3% 29.8% 42.8% 77.6% 79.1% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0% Prcntag of Twts Advrtising (commrcial, Jak) Brand rcognition ( Lik a good nighbor, Stat Farm is thr ) Significant sharing ovr 40% th twts ar rtwts 21 11
Allstat Top 10 Kywords commrcials vry know lik mayhm hands good insuranc rt allstat 5.5% 5.6% 5.7% 7.6% 77% 7.7% 13.7% 16.1% 20.2% 28.5% Allstat Kywords 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0% 100.0% Prcntag of Twts Advrtising (Mayhm, commrcials, ramn noodls vry night budgt, Mayhm lik m) Brand rcognition (you r in good hands with Allstat) Sharing componnt not as significant (rt only 28%) 90.0% 22 GEICO Top 10 Kywords commrcials lik pig car switching mony insuranc commrcial rt gico 8.9% 9.1% 9.3% 10.5% 10.6% 11.2% 14.2% 20.0% 31.3% GEICO Kywords 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0% 100.0% Prcntag of Twts Advrtising (commrcial, pig, commrcials) Brandrcognition rcognition ( Savdmony by switchingcar car insuranc ) Sharing componnt not as significant (rt only 31%) 93.4% 23 12
Analysis Idntifying Thms in th Data Clustring/Sgmntation Unsuprvisd classification tchniqu Groups data into st of discrt clustrs or contiguous groups of cass Prforms disjoint clustr analysis on th basis of Euclidan distancs computd from on or mor quantitativ input variabls and clustr sds Data points ar groupd basd on th distancs from th sd valus Objcts in ach clustr tnd to b similar, objcts in diffrnt clustrs tnd to b dissimilar 25 13
Clustr Lift Stat Farm Prcntag Clustr Lift (word) = of twts in a clustr that includ word Prcntag of all twts that includ word Clustr anothr_ind anyon_indaround_ind businss_indbuy_ind cam_ind car_ind caus_ind 1 2.039 0.512 7.101 2.788 1.042 0.703 1.955 0.973 2 0.345 7.176 0.963 1.589 0.000 0.277 0.386 1.076 3 0.000 0.319 1.381 8.481 3.242 2.625 4.258 0.969 4 0.000 0.688 0.554 0.654 0.000 0.877 0.375 91.688 5 0.000 0.831 0.385 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 6 0.944 0.968 0.958 1.839 0.844 1.328 21.637 1.051 7 8.337 1.303 7.762 3.053 0.000 0.894 0.000 0.743 8 2.413 2.121 1.838 0.733 1.849 5.407 4.049 2.073 9 11.261 0.707 1.225 2.993 2158 2.158 4.367 0.000000 1.075 10 2.872 1.708 0.579 1.976 1.208 11.211 0.567 0.621 11 1.311 0.576 0.999 2.091 1.759 1.187 6.600 0.876 12 2.498 4.393 1.631 6.451 13.403 0.431 2.395 0.477 13 155.505 2.254 0.977 0.974 0.000 1.436 0.000 1.224 26 Kywords Stat Farm Clustr # Numbr of Twts Catgory Kywords Dscription 1 1,491 sponsorship around hit miss play run Hom Run Drby 2 3,778 sponsorship anyon collg coms kids lbron Collg Sports Sponsorships 3 1,198 advrtising businss music win Music Fstivals, Music Download 6 2,762 comptition car cool funny much nationwid prtty Comparisons with Nationwid 7 4,689 sponsorship anothr around football looks lost packrs wk Football sponsorships, Packrs, Hish School Football 8 1,260 advrtising coupl hlp jingl million nobody nothing rmmbr sdo th jingl 9 1,080 advrtising anothr long namd prtty talk wif woman Jak from Stat Farm, woman singing "Watrfall" 10 5,142 advrtising aaron cam chck discount doubl giants lost mayb p Discount Doubl Chck, Packrs 12 1,217 quots buy covrag insuranc month quot start Stat Farm Markting, Insuranc Quots 15 471 advrtising discounts driv insuranc lss through Discounts 19 1,000 sports discounts giants hanging lss mor packrs spnt tim Packrs & Giants 20 2941 2,941 comptition chang having sam Changing Insuranc Companis 25 2,414 markting about car don florida insuranc kids rats Grat rats 26 45 advrtising accidnt anothr anyon anything bliv commrcial Frnch modl 27 1,152 claims claims customrs mrgncy hlp lost nationwid sandhurrican Sandy 27 14
Clustr Rsults Top 10 Words pr Clustr Clustr 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 run hit miss play around city watching today kids long 2 collg coms kids lbron anyon about drop think football nvr 3 music win businss part song happy rady har liv car 4 full ys caus covrag doubl mrgncy room thats favorit hous 5 atwasovrw walks braks parnts txting awkward scurity waring caught morning 6 nationwid prtty car cool funny much allstat follow okay sam 7 looks football wk lost anothr around packrs drop namd today 8 tims nobody million coupl hlp rmmbr sam nothing jingl calld 9 woman long wif talk prtty anothr namd fir looks dad 10 doubl discount chck mayb packrs cam aaron lost rodgrs giants 11 vry sorry happy nic thank drop glad har much customr 12 quot buy covrag start insuranc month businss gt rats gtting 13 okay though anothr tatfarm_ wk nothing cool think chris no 14 password found wtf put wk happy wif nighbors tomorrow car 15 discounts driv lss through insuranc liv mor policy covrag discount Rank 28 Ky Thms Stat Farm Thms Prcntag of Twts advrtising 8.7% claims 1.2% comptition 2.8% customr fdback 19.1% customr srvic 7.2% mploymnt 0.7% markting 1.2% quots 06% 0.6% sponsorship 6.0% sports 1.1% twts 1.7% blank 49.9% 29 15
Association Analysis Background in markt baskt analysis Idntification of itms that occur togthr in th sam rcord Producs vnt occurrnc as wll as confidnc intrval around th occurrnc liklihood Can lad to squnc analysis as wll, which considrs timing and ordring of vnts 30 Association Analysis Formulas Transactions = twts Itms = words 31 16
Association Ruls Datast #1 Expctd Confidnc(%) Confidnc(%) Support(%) Lift Transaction Count Rul Lft Hand of Rul Right Hand of Rul Rul Indx 0.632 73.391 0.618 116.070 422 nighbor ==> thr & lik & good nighbor thr & lik & good 73 0.754 86.831 0.618 115.194 422 nighbor & lik ==> thr & good nighbor & lik thr & good 78 0.754 81.043 0.682 107.516 466 nighbor ==> thr & good nighbor thr & good 110 0.771 79.174 0.618 102.644 422 nighbor & good ==> thr & lik nighbor & good thr & lik 134 0.888 91.053 0.760 102.486 519 jonas ==> xthtxt jonas xthtxt 135 0.834 85.502 0.760 102.486 519 xthtxt ==> jonas xthtxt jonas 136 0.771 75.130 0.632 97.402 432 nighbor ==> thr & lik nighbor thr & lik 177 1.762 99.167 0.697 56.273 476 financial & answr ==> suranc financial & answr suranc 277 0.921 50.911 0.777 55.299 531 tv ==> mayhm & ad tv mayhm & ad 281 1.527 84.420 0.777 55.299 531 mayhm & ad ==> tv mayhm & ad tv 282 0.700 37.679 0.618 53.855 422 lik & good ==> thr & nighbor lik & good thr & nighbor 295 1.639 88.285 0.618 53.855 422 thr & nighbor ==> lik & good thr & nighbor lik & good 296 1.041 52.679 0.777 50.620 531 ad ==> tv & mayhm ad tv & mayhm 311 1.762 88.516 0.733 50.229 501 answr ==> suranc answr suranc 323 1.639 81.913 0.689 49.968 471 nighbor ==> lik & good nighbor lik & good 331 1.399 65.843 0.897 47.056 613 vido ==> youtub vido youtub 364 2.122 87.639 0.809 41.294 553 stat & car ==> farm stat & car farm 530 0.924 38.138 0.809 41.294 553 farm ==> stat & car farm stat & car 529 2.122 80.923 0.950 38.130 649 stat & insuranc ==> farm stat & insuranc farm 588 1.174 44.759 0.950 38.130 649 farm ==> stat & insuranc farm stat & insuranc 587 32 Association Analysis Link Graph 33 17
Twt Locations Country Numbr of Twts Prcnt USA 3693 94.3% Canada 58 1.5% UK 44 1.1% Gulf of Mxico 25 0.6% China 22 0.6% 34 Analysis Challngs Accssing and collcting information Contxt Rlvanc Influnc Sntimnt Raw, unfiltrd customr data Nar ral tim analysis ndd 35 18
Applications of Social Mdia Analytics Customr srvic Undrstanding customr sntimnt rlating to company (advrtising, tc.) Comptitiv intllignc Broad markt trnds 36 Commrcial Focus Groups 2500 N u 2000 m b r 1500 o f T w t s 1000 500 I lik th pig from th Gico commrcials lls GEICO "pig" Twts That pig saying w in th Gico commrcial sriously nds an appl shovd in its mouth. Ashton Kushr 0 Dat Numbr of Twts Avrag Twts pr Wk 37 19
Claims Applications Srvic qustions hi I was just looking at th sit and I nd assistanc on faxing a claim What is th Toll Fr Tlphon Numbr for th Claims Dpartmnt for XXXX? http://t.co/y8ypsekv Fdback Thank you for th fast windshild chip rpair claim procssing. Information XXXX opns tmporary claims sits to hlp AL storm victims. Claims to XXXX from Dallas Ft Worth tornado&hail on Apr 3 hav now rachd 16,000. W'r working 7days/wk to hlp customrs rcovr. Complaints XXXX not paying your claim in a timly mannr? Gt a LAWYER hr NOW: http://t.co/ljl5ygal #RT 38 Quots Many companis/agncis using for advrtising Currnt and potntial customrs I rally wish icould gt a quot on insuranc without XXXX or XXXX hassling m for 3 wks aftrwards Calld my insuranc company for nw policy hr in TX mad my insuranc jump $204 dollars. Calld XXXXfor a quot & thy wantd $300 mor. Dos anyon us XXXX Auto Insuranc? I was looking at quots and thy put m $450+ blow vryon ls. Wondring what th dal lis. 39 20
Thank You for Your Attntion Gary C. Wang, FCAS, MAAA 309 807 2331 gwang@pinnaclactuaris.com 40 21