Austin, TX: An Economic Prospectus CCIM Symposium Growing Pains of Austin January 30, 2013
Why Choose Austin? Unique combination of big city growth rates and feel of small, weird university town Diversified economy powered by innovation, productivity, and well developed ecosystem for supporting entrepreneurship Region offers great variety in quality of life at relatively affordable prices
Population Growth Source: U.S. Bureau ofeconomic Analysis 8% Austin Round Rock San Marcos 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% All U.S. Metro Areas
Fastest Growing Metro Areas Source: US U.S. CensusBureau, Population Change, 2001 2011 2011 Houston Dallas Atlantat Riverside Phoenix Washington Miami New York Las Vegas Austin Orlando San Antonio Los Angeles Charlotte Seattle 559,345 539,136 509,475 462,203 461,001 446,804 433,310310 421,097 407,099 972,701701 927,632 899,500 776,054 1,245,826 1,4,282 Despite being only the 34 th largest metropolitan area, Austin ranks 10 th in population growth since 2001. Austin is adding an average of 50,000 people every year since the recession hit in 2007 roughly equivalent to a Cedar Park... every year. 0 200,000000 400,000000 600,000000 800,000000 1,000,000 1,200,000 000 1,400,000 000
Austin: Movers Driving Growth Source: InternalRevenue Service, 2000 20102010 (MSAsonly) Blue: Move to Austin > Move from Austin Pink: Move to Austin < Move from Austin Top 10 Origin Metros (Avg Movers Per Year) 1. Houston (6,700) 2. Dallas (6,000) 3. San Antonio (4,700) 4. Killeen (2,100) 5. Los Angeles (1,800) 6. Corpus Christi (1,100) 7. Chicago (1,000) 8. Phoenix (900) 9. New York (900) 10.San Francisco (800)
Popular Neighborhoods Source: U.S. Census Bureau, People Moving to Travis & Williamson Counties fromout ofstate, 2007 2011 2011 Census Out of % Tract Tract General Area Staters Population 17.6 Steiner Ranch 1,113 8% 6.01 UT Campus 1,030 11% 17.86 Milwood/Arrowwood 856 17% 215.07 Indian Ridge/Eagle Ridge 785 10% 203.14 2243/183 Leander 754 15% 18.49 North Burnet/Domain 708 13%
Job Growth: Total Employment Source: U.S. Bureau ofeconomic Analysis 12% Austin Round Rock San Marcos 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 2% All U.S. Metro Areas 4%
Economic Growth: GDP Source: U.S. Bureau ofeconomic Analysis Metro Area GDP $50B Real GDP 2001 10 Real GDP 2007 10 Portland 49% 6% Austin 48% 10% San Jose 43% 13% Raleigh 33% 5% Orlando 31% 4% Washington 30% 6% Las Vegas 26% 13% Phoenix 25% 7% Austin s growing economy: $26.6 billion increase in GDP between 2001 and 2010, a 48% growth rate second only to Portland among large metros. $7.5 billion+ increase in GDP since recession hit in 2007, a 10%growthratebehindonlySan Jose among large metros. GDP Per Capita, a proxy used for standard of living, has increased from 97% of U.S. to 104% of U.S.
Skilled Workforce Availability Source: US U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Austin MSA as % of All U.S. US Metro Areas (100%) 105% Paychecks (average earnings per worker) 100% 95% 90% 85% Productivity (output per worker) Productivity in Austin grew nearly twice as fast as productivity in all U.S. metropolitan areas between 2001 and 2010. 80% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Manufacturing Renaissance Source: U.S. Bureau ofeconomic Analysis, Output Per Worker (2005 dollars) $350,000 Manufacturing (output) in Austin is growing more than four times faster than the Austin economy as a $300,000000 whole. It now makes up approximately 20% of the total metro area economy, up from only 9% in 2001. $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 Austin Round Rock San Marcos $100,000 All U.S. Metro Areas $50,000 $0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Austin: Diversifying Economy Source: U.S. Bureau ofeconomic Analysis Jobs Rank GDP Rank 2001 2011 2001 2010 Government 1 1 1 2 Retail 2 3 6 7 Manufacturing 3 11 4 1 Prof, Sci, Tech Services 4 2 N/A 4 Health Care, Social Asst 5 4 N/A 9 Finance, Insurance 10 7 7 8 Real Estate 12 10 3 5 Note: Rank based on share of total jobs, GDP.
Innovation & Entrepreneurship Corporate anchors Infrastructure Networks Connectors
Wealth Creation Sources, US U.S. Census Bureau, Texas Comptroller Number of households with at least $200K in annual income has doubled since 2000, up to 16,000 as of 2010 in city of Austin Inflation adjusted retail sales in Austin metro area grew by 27% between 2002 and 2011, compared to 22% statewide, 1% Dallas Technology sectors (mobile, cloud, analytics) well positioned for VC investment
Housing Affordability Source: Zillow, Median List Price, November 2012 Price Per Most Expensive Price Per City Sq. Ft. Neighborhood Sq. Ft. San Francisco $635 Presidio Heights $984 Washington $417 Kalorama $757 Seattle $286 Downtown $715 Denver $210 Country Club $363 Portland $1 Pearl District $350 Austin $141 Downtown $387 Raleigh $107 Wade $218
Key Questions Can Austin maintain its cost advantage given the region s current growth trajectory? Will we make the necessary investments in public services, infrastructure (water), and amenities to keep up with growth? Is it possible to make the region s economic development more inclusive?
Middle Income Stagnation Source: US U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Austin MSA as % of All U.S. US Metro Areas (100%) 110% 105% 100% 95% 90% Per capita income 85% 80% 75% 70% Average earnings per job 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 20 20 20 20 20 20
71% of Austin metro area s population growth between 2000 and 2010 occurred in suburban areas, up from 53% between 90 and 2000.
Source: Center for Neighborhood Technology http://htaindex.cnt.org
Human Capital Investment Source: US U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 37% (7.5M) of all new jobs in US U.S. expected by 2020 will require postsecondary degree 16 out of top 25 fastest growing occupations in U.S. will require postsecondary degree 91 out of top 100 highest paying occupations in U.S. require postsecondary degree Note: Postsecondary here means certificates, associate s degrees, and up.
Human Capital ROI Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Median Wage for U.S. Occupations by Education Required, 2010 Doctoral or professional degree $87,500 Bachelor's degree $63,430 Associate's degree $61,590 Master's degree $60,240 Postsecondary non degree award $34,220 High school diploma or equivalent $34,180 Less than high school $20,070 $0 $20,000 000 $40,000 000 $60,000 000 $80,000 000 $100,000000
Austin: The Challenge Ahead Source: U.S. Census Bureau, % Population Age 25+ in Austin MSA with Postsecondary Degree, 2011 80% 70% 73% % Total Population with Postsecondary Degree 60% 50% 40% 50% 33% Washington DC 54% San Francisco 51% Raleigh 50% Austin 47% Seattle 46% Denver 46% Portland 42% 30% 20% 21% 10% 0% Asian White Black Hispanic
Summary Austin s s reign atop metro area rankings should continue if we continue to think big, take risks, and invest in economic competitiveness Growth pressures will test our commitment to regional thinking avoiding a zero sum game mentality will be a critical success factor Creating stronger links between education and workforce development is a top priority
Brian Kelsey, Principal Civic Analytics LLC brian@civicanalytics.comcom 512 731 7851 http://civicanalytics.com @brianjkelsey linkedin.com/in/brianjkelsey /b i jkl