TECHNOLOGY WORLD TOUR Global Technology Market Update Steve Koenig Director, Industry Analysis, CEA @KoenigSteve skoenig@ce.org
Data Methodology + = Digital World: Global Consumer Technology Spending Forecasts Retail CE sales tracking at more than 340,000 retail stores in 80 countries. Monthly tracking/forecasting of shipments to U.S. consumer sales channels for dozens of CE categories.
Mature North America Western Europe Developed APAC Analysis Considerations: Geographical, Financial Developing Central /Eastern Europe Latin America Emerging APAC (incl. China, India) Middle East/ Africa Exchange Rates (FX) Sales Tax Tech Subsidies
DEVICES: What Technologies Are Driving Spending Growth?
Smartphones Remain Spending Driver
Smartphone & Tablets: Claiming More Spending Share 22% Smartphones and Tablets 46% Other Device Categories 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Fcst Global Tech Device Sales Revenue Source: CEA / GfK Digital World
267,296 Global Smartphone Unit Sales and Forecast (000s) 430,940 +61% 667,777 +55% 996,138 1,273,690 1,509,761 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014e 2015f Source: GfK Digital World +28% +49% +19%
Smartphones: Emerging Markets Take The Lead Global Market: 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014e 2015f Global Unit Volume (000s) 267,296 430,940 667,777 996,138 1,273,690 1,509,761 Mature Markets 60% 51% 41% 32% 29% 25% Developing Markets 40% 49% 59% 68% 71% 75% CHINA: 13% 34%
117,717 Global Smartphone Revenue & Forecast Millions of USD 181,050 +54% 253,695 +40% 330,678 373,890 406,735 +13% +30% +9% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014e 2015f Source: GfK Digital World
2010 Smartphones - Global ASP Trend (USD) 440 420 2012 387 347 312 2015 fcst 275
China: Home-Grown Brands Bringing Smartphones to the Masses Global Incumbents Feeling the Pressure Entered Chinese mkt in May 2014 with Online sales strategy 70% of sales online 2014 Sales: 61m units RedMi 2 sub-$150 Coolpad Halo 7-inch 1080p; 1.7GHz octa-core 2GB RAM Sources: Wall Street Journal, Tech in Asia
Chinese Brands: Not Just Cheap Phones Xiaomi Mi5 5.7-inch display 2560 x 1440 64-bit quad-core Qualcomm Snapdragon 810 Adreno 430 graphics chipset 3GB of RAM 20.7-megapixel main camera How are other brands competing? Lenovo/Moto; Huawei; Samsung; LG
Global Tablet Unit Sales Fcst. (000s) 224,297 281,297 337,009 15,884 61,183 128,935 +285% +111% +74% +25% +20% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014e 2015f Source: GfK Digital World
Developing Markets Driving Tablet Sales Low-cost models for all Global Market: 2011 2012 2013 2014e 2015f Global Unit Volume (000s) 61,183 128,935 224,376 281,297 337,009 Developing Markets 21% 28% 37% 41% 44% North America 49% 41% 35% 35% 35% Other Mature Markets 30% 31% 28% 24% 22%
Global Tablet Revenue Turns Negative 37,127 Millions of USD 68,355 67,636 56,383 61,961 11,352 +227% +52% +21% -1% -8% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014e 2015f Source: GfK Digital World
Global Tablet ASP (in USD)
U.S. Tablet Shipments Unit Forecast Screens >9" Screens <9" 48,843 48,380 47,270 28,562 29,638 33,415 59% of Shipments 2013 2014e 2015f Source: CEA
Tablets: A Universe of Use Cases CURRENT: FUTURE: Consumer applications Education Vertical markets Retail
Global TV Volumes Return to (Slow) Growth 2008 217m +14% 2009 224m 2010 254m +3% +13% 2011 262m +3% 2012 242m -8% 2013 243m 0% 2015 Fcst 2014 Est 251m 247m +1% +2% Penetrating New Markets Big Screen Innovation Global TV Unit Sales Source: GfK Demand Projector Dec 2014
Move to Larger Screen TVs is a Global Phenomenon 41'' 39'' 37'' 35'' 33'' 31'' Avg. Screen Size 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Est LCD TV Average Screen Size Source: GfK TV Demand Projector December 2014 2015 Fcst 40 Mature Markets Global Average Developing Markets
25 20 15 10 5 0 2015 4K Ultra HD TV Forecast (M) Global Market ROW China 10 9.3 3.3 0.9 13.3 6 0.7 2013 2014 2015 Source: GfK, TV Demand Projector, Dec 2014 23.3 57%
Ultra HDTV - U.S. Unit Shipment Forecast (000s) % of 40-inch and higher LCD TVs 48% 10,000 60% 13,000 63% 14,000 77 7% 1,300 20% 4,000 2013 2014f 2015e 2016e 2017e 2018e Source: CEA, January 2014 CE Sales and Forecasts
2013-2014: Mixed Consumer Technology Spending Picture 2013 2014 Global Tech Device Retail Sales Revenue Growth Source: GfK Digital World
Mature Markets Global Tech Spending Searching for Equilibrium $570bn $$593 $564 bn bn 57% 54% 51% $516bn 51% Growth (2014 vs 2011) -9% 2011 2012 2013 2014 43% 46% 49% 49% 14% $437bn Developing Markets $447 m $497bn Global Tech Device Retail Sales Revenue Mix Source: GfK Digital World
Emerging Asia Now Leads Tech Spending
North America Regaining Share
Magnificent Seven Regional Revenue Shares 83% 64% Share of Global Tech Device Retail Sales Revenue in $ - by Region, 2014
GLOBAL MARKET:
Global Tech Rose Slightly in 2014 Global Tech Device Sales Revenue Source: GfK Digital World
Slight Growth in 2014 Volumes Unit growth in core categories softening. tablets and smartphones LCD TV $1.024 Trillion (+1%) Product / Pricing Mix Several categories mature or rapidly maturing. Lower-end devices (and ASPs) required to penetrate lower consumer tiers of emerging markets. Next wave of innovations building global momentum. Smart watches, smart home techs, etc.
Global Market Update Summary 2014 global technology spending +1% to 1.024 Trillion USD Shift to lower-end devices in emerging markets pulling down ASPs. Emerging Asia region (led by China) now leads tech spending (2014: 282 Billion USD, 26% Revenue Share) Global consumer tech spending remains driven by mobile, connected devices. But for how long?
TECHNOLOGY WORLD TOUR Global Technology Market Update Steve Koenig Director, Industry Analysis, CEA @KoenigSteve skoenig@ce.org