Insights from an integrated systems perspective of household fuels and health in China H. Keith Florig Carnegie Mellon University Presented at the Workshop on Mitigation of Air Pollution and Climate Change in China Norwegian Academy of Science and Letters, Oslo, Norway October 17-19, 2004 1
Co-benefits and public policy goals Why stop here? Policy domain Climate change Climate change & public health Public welfare Actions Reduce GHG emissions Reduce GHG & air pollution Reduce GHG, disease, illiteracy, unemployment, deforestation, etc. 2
Macro & micro intervention Macro intervention Macro driving forces Household fuels Other stuff Micro intervention Household, societal, & environmental impacts Social welfare 3
Rural capital supply, farmer credit Rural transportation infrastructure Urban wealth Trade - WTO Agricultural policy & land tenure system Influence diagram for rural household fuels Demand for agricultural products Rural nonfarm employment Worker productivity Agricultural productivity Soil quality Energy policy Rural energy infrastructure Fuel availability & price Water quality Rural education policy Rural education Rural household wealth Floor space Space heating demand Water heating demand Family size Cooking demand Stove/fuel technology Stove/fuel preferences for functionality Household labor burden Electricity price Stove emissions Deforestation PM exposure Climate forcing Appliance ownership Nutrition Health care policy Health care access Rural health status Air polln health impacts Smoking Tobacco ads & taxes 4
Income Effects on Energy Choices 5
Relative per capita real rural income Income index (1978 = 100) 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2200 RMB 2000 median Year 6
Employment in rural non-farm enterprises 160 Rural non-farm employment millions 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Year 7
Rural Energy Consumption by Income (World Bank 1996) Percent Energy by Source 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 0-175 yuan 175-298 yuan 298-485 yuan 485-900 yuan 900+ yuan Dung Biogas Leaves and Grass Straw and stalks Firewood Charcoal Coal Kerosene LPG Electricity Income (Adapted from Worldbank Energy Sector Management Assistance Program Report 183/96, "Energy for Rural Development in China: An Assessment Based on a Joint Chinese/ESMAP Study in Six Counties") 8
Commercial energy vs. income in rural China (Wang & Feng 2003) Average per capita rural net income is currently about 2000 RMB Net per capita income (Yuan) < RMB 2000 (below median) RMB 2000 4000 ( well off ) > RMB 4000 ( wealthy ) Proportion of commercial energy < 20% 20-50% > 50% From Wang and Feng, Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews, 7:545-552, 2003. 9
Appliance priorities in rural households 1. Lighting 2. Electric fan 3. TV & radio 4. Washing machine 5. Refrigerator Electric cooking/heating 10
At the household level, cooking & heating choices are based on multiple attributes Fuel availability (e.g., central heating, piped gas unavailable in many areas). Economics: capital requirements, fuel price, fuel efficiency, household income, subsidies Functional ease: convenience, controllability, evenness in time and space (heating) Compatibility with traditional cooking styles Cleanliness of surfaces (soot settling) Health impacts (air pollution, safety, disease) 11
Other Income Effects 12
As wealth/income increases: Demand for energy services grows Access to health care improves Living space expands Persons per household declines Smoking prevalence declines, but heavy smokers smoke more Nutrition improves Education rises 13
Per capita net living space in rural areas (China Stat Yrbk 2001) 30 Living space, sq. m. 25 20 15 10 5 0 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Year 14
Dynamics 15
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Time constants Atmospheric residence times of particulates & PICs (< month) vs. CO2 (centuries) Rural infrastructure construction, e.g., gas pipelines, roads (10-30 yrs) Rural non-farm employment doubling (~10 yrs) Rural real income doubling (~10 yrs) Rural housing construction/urbanization (~5%/yr) Permanent migration to cities (2% of rural pop/yr) Solid gas/liquid fuels transition (10-20 yrs) Education of next generation (20 yrs) 17
A coalition of interested sectors 18
Household solid fuels as a commons problem Climate effects Health impacts beyond household Exacerbates rural-urban inequality Drains health care resources Less healthy labor market Lessens effectiveness of education Burdens social security system Damages ecosystems 19
Political economy of indoor air pollution Climate change Rural industry Public health Common stakeholder interest in rural residential solid fuels Agriculture Energy Other interested lobbies: -Education -Tobacco -Ecosystem protection 20
Rural investment options which buys rural residents the most utility per RMB? Biogas digesters for cooking gas Education Industrial capital & micro-loans Convert grain fields to export crops Washing machine & refrigerator Health clinics Transportation infrastructure 21
Summary Best policy prescriptions to address household solid fuels problem depend on how broadly co-benefits are defined Mobilizing interventions for household solid fuels may require a broader coalition of stakeholders 22