TRIPLE BOTTOM LINE FOR POLICY EVALUATION. A qualitative approach to climate change and sustainability

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1 TRIPLE BOTTOM LINE FOR POLICY EVALUATION A qualitative approach to climate change and sustainability

2 LAYOUT Introduction Modelling the triple bottom line A case study Conclusion

3 INTRODUCTION

4 GOALS Argue about the unexpected outcomes of bioenergy transitions Highlight the complexity of sustainability transitions Explain a way to model the system s complexity and triple bottom line sustainability Explain how to identify leverages for the system s change 4

5 SUSTAINABILITY TRANSITIONS? What is sustainability? What are the outcomes of these processes at local level? Are such transitions really sustainable? 5

6 CONSEQUENCES OF SUSTAINABILITY TRANSITIONS: AN EXAMPLE Bioenergy production Thermal warming Impact on soil nutrients ad biodiversity Social opposition Economic problems Water courses pollution GHG emissions Economic unfeasebility Social disinterest 6

7 MODELING THE TRIPLE BOTTOM LINE 7

8 TRIPLE BOTTOM LINE (TBL) Economy Society Environment TBL

9 HOW TO DEFINE THE TBL? Previous studies and official reports Actors view and understandin g Policy documents Embedded definition of Sustainability 9

10 TBL METHODOLOGIES Institutional analysis Causal mechanisms of transition processes System dynamics Cognitive analysis User manual NIBIOs power point template 24/09/15 10

11 A CASE STUDY Biogas in Emilia Romagna 11

12 PROBLEM ARTICULATION Research questions Why does bioenergy development lead to unsustainable outcomes in the case study area? What structures and causal mechanisms lay behind bioenergy development that may explain unsustainable outcomes in the case study? Is the FeedIn Tariff scheme a sufficient and necessary cause to explain the causes of unsustainability?

13 METHODS AND VARIABLES SELECTION Official reports and policy documents Statistical reports Interviews with stakeholders Focus groups Previous studies 13

14 INSTITUTIONAL MODEL Agriculture Administrative system Energy Waste management BIOGAS 14

15 POLICY MODEL 15

16 B6 A nal farmland rent price B2 B3 demand for y si s fraction nonconsumed bioheat fraction used inhouse thermal warming B4 plant maintenance R4 bioelectricity generation profit support schemes R3 R1 biogas plants investments in biogas biogas production B1 digestate generation R2 farmland import of biomass energy crops production use of digestate on farmland EU 2020 targets achievement public grants biomass accumulation biomass storing traffic in rural areas B5 R9 R5 policy interventions* B8 GHG emissions use of land food crops production R8 B7 R6 percolation R7 social opposition pressure on local and regional governments bad smells R10 collaboration R12 organizational capacity R11 social capital 16

17 HOW TO FIND THE LEVERAGES? Actors suggestions Lessons from successful cases Reinforcing loops boost growth Balacing loops down growth

18 B6 L eve B2 farmland rent price B3 demand for r a g es fraction nonconsumed bioheat fraction used inhouse thermal warming B4 plant maintenance R4 bioelectricity generation profit support schemes R3 R1 biogas production biogas plants investments in biogas B1 digestate generation R2 farmland import of biomass energy crops production use of digestate on farmland EU 2020 targets achievement public grants biomass accumulation biomass storing traffic in rural areas B5 R9 R5 policy interventions* B8 GHG emissions use of land food crops production R8 B7 R6 percolation R7 social opposition pressure on local and regional governments bad smells R10 R12 organizational capacity collaboration R11 social capital

19 CONCLUSION Learning

20 POLICY IMPLICATIONS Value chain Diversify and localize biomass supply Synergies among local actors Diversify the uses of biogas Regulations Set regional ambitious climate change goals Focus on phase out fossil fuels from public buildings Enforce local land and energy planning Social policies Start local participatory processes/platforms Strengthen local collaboration Give the possibility for shared investments 20

21 THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION Bianca Cavicchi, Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research (NIBIO), Norway, Ås, (Oslo Department) British num Norwegian num