Change in Estimates Rating Target Greenply Industries Ltd Q2 FY16 Q2FY16 net revenue of Greenply Industries or GIL at Rs401cr, 2.5%/9.2% below our/bloomberg estimate of Rs411cr/Rs441cr, respectively, led by 7.8% decline in Plywood revenue (lower real estate sales and poor liquidity) which forms 72% of sales. However, MDF continues to grow at a healthy pace of 14.5%. Operating margin of MDF board division improved 471bps to 27.9% on account of lower raw material costs, introduction of high margin new product called Ecolite MDF, and higher capacity utilisation at 91.2% compared to 79.1% YoY. Gross margin improved 351bps to 45.1% on the back of better product mix and benign input cost. As per management, the input cost will remain stable going forward. With higher gross margin, EBITDA margin improved 125bps to 14.1% for the quarter. Hence, EBITDA grew 7.1% to Rs57cr, 2.4%/9.3% lower than our/bloomberg estimates of Rs58cr/Rs62cr, respectively. With a better cash flow and lower debt interest costs decline by 14.7%, PBT grew 12.9% to Rs36cr. However, the PAT grew by just 1.5% to Rs27cr on the back of rise in effective tax rate which stood at 25.2% as against 16.8% in Q2FY15 which curtailed the PAT growth. The PAT growth was 4.1%/13.5% lower than our/bloomberg estimates of Rs28cr/Rs32cr, respectively. High RoCE outsourced plywood business posted a 16.1% revenue growth for the quarter and is expected to sustain its growth rate in FY16. MDF board division is likely to report a 27% 28% operating margin in FY16, up 471bps in Q2FY16, with a pre tax RoCE of 33.4% in FY16. The management has lowered the FY16 guidance from 10% 12% to 5% 6% on the back of poor consumer sentiment, higher real estate inventory and no pickup in the premium category of Plywood. We have slightly tweaked our PAT estimates by 4.5%/2.0%/1.9% in FY16E/FY17E/FY18E, respectively. We have retained Buy rating on GIL with a reduced target price to Rs1,300 based on 22x/12.5x FY17E P/E and EV/EBITDA, respectively, (from Rs1,327 based on 22x/12.6x FY17E PE and EV/EBITDA), respectively. Result table (Standalone) Y/E Mar (Rs cr) Q2 FY16 Q1 FY16 % qoq Q2 FY15 % yoy Net sales 401 381 5.2 411 (2.4) Operating profit 57 56 1.1 53 7.1 OPM (%) 14.1 14.7 (57)bps 12.9 125 bps Depreciation (12) (12) 2.3 (11) 7.2 Interest (8) (8) 1.6 (9) (14.7) Other Income 0 0 5.3 0 (66.0) PBT 36 36 0.6 32 12.9 Tax (9) (9) (3.2) (5) 70.0 Effective tax rate (%) 25.2 26.2 (101)bps 16.8 846 bps PAT 27 27 2.0 27 1.5 PAT margin (%) 6.8 7.0 (22)bps 6.5 26 bps This report is published by IIFL India Private Clients research desk. IIFL has other business units with independent research teams separated by 'Chinese walls' catering to different sets of customers having varying objectives, risk profiles, investment horizon, etc. The views and opinions expressed in this document may at times be contrary in terms of rating, target prices, estimates and views on sectors and markets. Rating: Sector: Sector view: Building Products Positive Sensex: 27,040 52 Week h/l (Rs): 1,277/699 Market cap (Rscr) : 2,321 6m Avg vol ( 000Nos): 759 Bloomberg code: MTLM IN BSE code: 526797 NSE code: GREENPLY FV (Rs): 5 Price as on Oct 28, 2015 Share price trend 140 120 100 80 60 Greenply BUY Target: Rs1,300 CMP: Rs962 Upside: 35% Sensex 40 Sep 14 Mar 15 Oct 15 Share holding pattern (%) Sep 15 Jun 15 Mar 15 Promoter 55.0 55.0 55.0 Insti 23.3 21.0 20.1 Others 21.7 24.0 24.9 Research Analyst: Ruchita Maheshwari research@indiainfoline.com October 29, 2015 Result Update
Negative Plywood growth; a drag in the overall performance of the company The Plywood segment, which contributes roughly 72% of the total net revenue, fell down 7.8% to Rs287.7cr on the back of the decline in premium plywood category led by higher inventory built up in the real estate. As GIL is real estate sector dependant, GIL is feeling the heat as plywood (the residential is the major consumption of premium plywood), unlike other building material, comes into the picture only after the customer takes possession of the house. With poor liquidity in the system and inventory built up led reduction in real estate sales hurting the performance of the company. As per management, demand will improve only if secondary sales improve in the real estate segment. The company had already taken a price hike in the start of FY16 hence the scope for further price hikes is minimal. However, we expect demand to revive in FY17. As the unorganized players not able to sustain the poor demand, lot many have shut down their capacity. GIL on the other hand has been able to maintain its market share and as the demand situation improves will be in the better position to gain market share. As per the management, the plywood division would have grown by 12% 15% if the company had extended the credit period for distributors. But the company decided to preserve the resources for proposed expansion of board s division in Andhra Pradesh, which is expected to be operational by mid of FY19. Healthy growth in MDF board volume GIL reported a healthy 14.5% growth in MDF board segment, led by 11.9% volume growth, on account of the consumers shifting from cheap plywood to MDF boards and also introduction of new products. Also because of higher dollar rate, the imported MDF had witness a major set back during the quarter and with high rawmaterial cost in the plywood, the MDF witness a healthy growth during the quarter. With better technology, GIL introduced low density, cheap MDF boards, thereby preventing the consumers migration to cheap plywood. With a better product mix and price hike, blended realisation increased 2.5%. As per the management, the industry s growth has not picked up and therefore volume growth is because of market share gain among players and cannibalisation of cheap plywood. Operating margin in MDF segment to sustain Operating margin of MDF board division improved 471bps to 27.9% on account of lower raw material costs, introduction of a new product called Ecolite MDF board, higher margin because of lower raw materials needed per cbm (cubic metre) and higher capacity utilisation at 91.2% compared to 79.1% YoY. The management is confident of maintaining operating margin of MDF board division to 27% 28% in FY16E from 23.3% in FY15. Valuation & Recommendation We have tweaked our PAT estimates by 4.5%/2.0%/1.9% in FY16E/FY17E/FY18E, respectively on the back of lower guidance from the management led by poor consumer sentiment, higher real estate inventory and nopickup in the premium category of Plywood. Likely revenue/pat CAGR of 10.6%/15.3% to Rs1,915cr/Rs143cr, respectively, healthy operating cash flow of Rs3.6bn leading to a fall in the D/E ratio from 0.69x to 0.47x, better demand visibility for high RoCE MDF boards and higher outsourcing of plywood and increase operating margin by 106bps over FY15 FY17E, will support GIL s valuation. We have retained Buy rating on GIL with a reduced target price to Rs1,300 based on 22x/12.5x FY17E P/E and EV/EBITDA, respectively (from Rs1,327 based on 22x/12.6x FY17E PE and EV/EBITDA, respectively. 2
Financial Summary Y/E 31 Mar (Rs cr) FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E Revenues 1,391 1,564 1,658 1,870 2,115 yoy growth (%) 5.8 12.5 6.0 12.8 13.1 Operating profit 173 205 232 265 302 OPM (%) 12.5 13.1 14.0 14.2 14.3 Reported PAT 77 107 117 138 162 yoy growth (%) (6.8) 38.9 8.7 18.3 17.5 EPS (Rs) 32.0 44.5 48.4 57.2 67.2 P/E (x) 30.0 21.6 19.9 16.8 14.3 Price/Book (x) 6.1 4.8 3.9 3.2 2.7 EV/EBITDA (x) 15.5 12.9 11.2 9.9 8.9 Debt/Equity (x) 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 RoE (%) 22.3 28.2 21.7 21.0 20.3 RoCE (%) 18.4 19.3 20.9 21.3 20.0 Q2FY16 Result Analysis Y/E March (Rscr) Standalone Q2FY15 Q1FY16 Q2FY16 YoY(%) QoQ (%) H1FY15 H1FY16 YoY(%) Net sales 411 381 401 (2.4) 5.2 742 782 5.4 Net RM costs and finished goods purchases 240 211 220 (8.3) 4.4 432 431 (0.2) % of sales 58.4 55.4 54.9 58.2 55.1 Employee Expenses 35 42 43 22.0 3.2 70 84 21.4 % of sales 8.6 10.9 10.7 9.4 10.8 Other expenses 83 73 81 (1.9) 12.0 142 154 7.9 % of sales 20.1 19.0 20.3 19.2 19.7 Operating Profit 53 56 57 7.1 1.1 98 112 14.8 OPM(%) 12.9 14.7 14.1 13.2 14.4 Interest 9 8 8 (14.7) 1.6 18 16 (13.0) Depreciation 11 12 12 7.2 2.3 23 24 7.9 Other income 0 0 0 (66.0) 5.3 0 0 (47.7) PBT 32 36 36 12.9 0.6 58 73 26.0 Tax 5 9 9 70.0 (3.2) 7 19 149.8 Effective tax rate (%) 16.8 26.2 25.2 13.0 25.7 Adjusted PAT 27 27 27 1.5 2.0 50 54 7.6 NPM(%) 6.5 7.0 6.8 6.8 6.9 EPS (Rs.) 11.1 11.1 11.3 1.5 2.0 20.8 22.3 7.6 Equity 12.1 12.1 12.1 12.1 12.1 3
Production/Sales Details Y/E March (Rscr) Standalone Q2FY15 Q1FY16 Q2FY16 YoY(%) QoQ (%) H1FY15 H1FY16 YoY(%) Production detail (msqm) Plywood (mn mtr2) 9.15 7.65 8.25 (9.8) 7.8 17.01 15.90 (6.5) MDF (mn cbm) 0.04 0.04 0.04 15.3 (0.5) 0.07 0.08 21.4 Sales volume (msqm) Plywood (mn mtr2) 12.29 11.01 12.03 (2.1) 9.3 22.50 23.04 2.4 In house 9.04 7.68 8.26 (8.7) 7.5 16.89 15.94 (5.6) Trading 3.25 3.33 3.77 16.1 13.4 5.61 7.10 26.5 MDF 0.04 0.04 0.04 11.9 6.5 0.07 0.08 20.0 Realization Plywood 241 241 198 (17.8) (17.8) 238 219 (7.6) MDF 26,158 27,166 26,818 2.5 (1.3) 26,111 26,992 3.4 Revenue Plywood 296 265 238 (19.6) (10.2) 535 503 (6.0) MDF 99 107 113 14.5 5.2 178 220 23.9 Total revenue 395 373 351 (11.1) (5.8) 713 724 1.5 Segmental Break up Analysis Segmental revenue Q2FY15 Q1FY16 Q2FY16 YoY(%) QoQ (%) H1FY15 H1FY16 YoY(%) Plywood 312 273 288 (7.8) 5.2 564 561 (0.4) MDF 99 107 113 14.5 5.3 178 220 23.5 Unallocated 0 Less: Inter segment 9 (100.0) 22 (100.0) Total 402 381 401 (0.3) 5.2 720 782 8.6 EBITDA margin (%) Plywood 9.5 8.6 9.0 (55) 33 99.3 88.0 (1,130) MDF 23.2 30.1 27.9 471 (224) 232.6 289.7 5,715 Total 12.9 14.7 14.1 125 (57) 200.4 144.9 (5,555) Capital employed Plywood 400 488 454 13.7 (6.9) 400 454 13.7 MDF 335 327 351 5.0 7.3 335 351 5.0 Unallocated 57 55 62 8.9 11.7 57 62 8.9 Total 791 871 867 9.7 (0.4) 791 867 9.7 Pre tax RoCE (%) Plywood 24.1 20.4 23.3 (87) 290 24.1 23.3 (87) MDF 20.8 35.6 33.4 1,260 (215) 20.8 33.4 1,260 Total 25.7 25.5 25.8 6 27 25.7 25.8 6 4
Change in estimates Y/E Mar (Rscr) Earlier assumption New assumption Change (%) FY16E FY17E FY18E FY16E FY17E FY18E FY16E FY17E FY18E Sales 17,089 19,430 21,466 16,577 19,147 21,154 (3.0) (1.5) (1.5) EBITDA 2,393 2,751 3,061 2,321 2,711 3,017 (3.0) (1.5) (1.5) EBITDA (%) 14.0 14.2 14.3 14.0 14.2 14.3 (0) 0 0 APAT 1222 1456 1654 1,167 1,427 1,623 (4.5) (2.0) (1.9) Our estimates versus actual performance Y/E Mar (Rscr) Q2FY15 Q1FY16 Q2FY16 YoY (%) QoQ (%) IIFL estimates Variation (%) BBG Consensus Variation (%) Net Sales 411 381 401 (2.4) 5.2 411 (2.5) 441 (9.2) EBITDA 53 56 57 7.1 1.1 58 (2.4) 62 (9.3) EBITDA (%) 12.9 14.7 14.1 125 (57) 14.1 0 14.1 (1) Adjusted PAT 27 27 27 1.5 2.0 28 (4.1) 32 (13.5) 5
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